European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[YL]

Count 16

Kelly (FG) elected
Wallace (I4C) 101,725
O'Sullivan (Green) 93,123
Kelleher (FF) 92,885
Ní Riada (SF) 91,839
Clune (FG) 89,743
Byrne (FF) 80,623 eliminated

... which means I'm changing my guess to O'Sullivan getting an immediate seat and Clune getting the Brexit-conditional one.

Hmmm...

Count 17

Kelly (FG) elected
Kelleher (FF) 131,652 elected
Wallace (I4C) 109,149
Clune (FG) 97,935
O'Sullivan (Green) 96,095
Ní Riada (SF) 95,573

So FF transfers actually favoured SF over the Greens, and there are more of them to come through Kelleher's surplus (just under 12,000 of them).  I suspect Ní Riada won't quite catch O'Sullivan, but it may be close.

After what happened in Dublin, I presume they will transfer the vote of whoever loses out to decide who is elected last for the Brexit-conditional seat.

[YL]

Count 1 in Midlands-North-West (Ireland)

4 seats, quota 118,986

McGuinness (FG) 134,630 elected
Flanagan (Ind) 85,034
Carthy (SF) 77,619
Walsh (FG) 64,500
Casey (Ind) 56,650
McHugh (Green) 51,019
Smith (FF) 42,814
Rabbitte (FF) 30,220
Eames (Ind) 15,991
Hannigan (Lab) 12,378
Brennan (PBP) 8,130
O'Dowd (Renua) 6,897
O'Connor (Ind) 3,132
Mahapatra (Ind) 2,450
Greene (Direct Democracy Ireland) 1,352
Miller (Ind) 1,322
Mulcahy (Ind) 789

This could take some time.

Count 9:

McGuinness (FG) elected and surplus transferred
Flanagan (Ind) 91,747
Carthy (SF) 82,921
Walsh (FG) 74,116
Casey (Ind) 61,616
McHugh (Green) 58,642
Smith (FF) 45,235
Rabbitte (FF) 32,714
Eames (Ind) 20,410 eliminated

This looks like the top four are going to get in, so SF hold one seat.

This count is now complete; the top four did indeed get in.  There's no Brexit-conditional seat here, so 2 FG, 1 Ind, 1 SF.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Any reason for that particular political geography that isn't "Former German Empire+Warsaw"? (You can also see the usual rural vs urban divide of course)

Isn't most of the present-day population of those parts of Poland descended from colonists who settled the areas annexed from Germany after World War II after they themselves were forced out of areas annexed to the USSR? Could that have something to do with it?

[adma]

Isn't most of the present-day population of those parts of Poland descended from colonists who settled the areas annexed from Germany after World War II after they themselves were forced out of areas annexed to the USSR? Could that have something to do with it?

Probably--in a way, that "uprootedness" gives them more of a pan-European consciousness and cosmopolitan outlook.  Whereas those in the E are much more defensively rooted in the notion of a "pure" Polish nation-state...

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Cartogram for KE



and for Wiosna

Isn't most of the present-day population of those parts of Poland descended from colonists who settled the areas annexed from Germany after World War II after they themselves were forced out of areas annexed to the USSR? Could that have something to do with it?

Probably--in a way, that "uprootedness" gives them more of a pan-European consciousness and cosmopolitan outlook.  Whereas those in the E are much more defensively rooted in the notion of a "pure" Polish nation-state...

Few things:

1) A lot of the people who settled on the territories annexed from Germany were from central and southern voivodships, not only from the territories annexed by the Soviet Union. There were places where people from the east were majority but there were also parts of the post-German territories where people from central Poland were majority. But generally this was sort of melting pot, people from different parts of the country had come there and their past social links were cut off. They started new lives, without being in any way limited and also supported by their previous communities. This had major influence on how people organized their lives, what views they had etc. Also Church and other major social, cultural, scientific organisations had to settle themselves, which obviously in destroyed by war country was difficult, and in few years after the war communist fully took over power and they also attempted to control other aspects of life. Which was obviously easier in territories where community making was still in progress. But we shouldn't absolutise the history in this case, still, there obviously is some sort of causation.

2) Another thing, probably more important: west is more urbanised (https://static.epodreczniki.pl/portal/f/res-minimized/RgbMaIu4MAHnt/8/960/27H5ioG30amUSS5i3raiGum7Gq2mCfbx.png)

3) I guess tack50 asked about the places which do not fit "regularities". As for the east big differences in support are caused mainly by ethnic minorities - Lithuanians and Belorussians-Orthodox people. As for the western part also minorities - Kashubians, which are rather conservative and Lutherans in Wisła which for obvious reasons do not vote on PiS. There is also issue of copper mines near Lubin and Legnica, where pro-PiS Solidarity trade union is strong and thus PiS is also usually relatively strong there. Obviously often irregularities are caused by candidates themselves, their home places often vote for them more, to some extend at least.

https://i.imgur.com/mJjqWuh.png

K - Kashubians
Lt - Lithuanians
O - Belarussians, Orthodox
Lu - Lutherans
C- copper mines district
M - example of support for candidate from particular county, in this case minister Elżbieta Rafalska
dots - I have no ing clue
T- very touristy area where a lot of people from different parts of country reside/lives

[jimrtex]

Count 16

Kelly (FG) elected
Wallace (I4C) 101,725
O'Sullivan (Green) 93,123
Kelleher (FF) 92,885
Ní Riada (SF) 91,839
Clune (FG) 89,743
Byrne (FF) 80,623 eliminated

... which means I'm changing my guess to O'Sullivan getting an immediate seat and Clune getting the Brexit-conditional one.

Are they counting using a quota based on 4 because they didn't anticipate the UK still being in, and it was too hard to change it?

Order of election does not necessarily match who would be elected if they used a larger quota to begin with.

[YL]

Count 16

Kelly (FG) elected
Wallace (I4C) 101,725
O'Sullivan (Green) 93,123
Kelleher (FF) 92,885
Ní Riada (SF) 91,839
Clune (FG) 89,743
Byrne (FF) 80,623 eliminated

... which means I'm changing my guess to O'Sullivan getting an immediate seat and Clune getting the Brexit-conditional one.

Are they counting using a quota based on 4 because they didn't anticipate the UK still being in, and it was too hard to change it?

Order of election does not necessarily match who would be elected if they used a larger quota to begin with.

It's a 4 seater without Brexit and a 5 seater with it.  They're using a quota based on 5, and declaring that the last person elected doesn't get to take their seat yet.  It is true that the result would potentially be different if they used a quota based on 4.

Count 18 gave

Kelly (FG) elected
Kelleher (FF) elected
Wallace (I4C) 112,441
Clune (FG) 101,012
O'Sullivan (Green) 98,706
Ní Riada (SF) 98,379

In a normal 5 seat STV election that would be it: Wallace, Clune and O'Sullivan would be declared elected.  But because of this business about the last seat it isn't a normal STV election, and they will now follow what Dublin did and transfer Ní Riada's votes to see what the finishing order is.  (There's also a 17 vote Kelly surplus, but it's unlikely to be that close.)  There is some controversy around this, so expect FG to kick up a fuss if O'Sullivan overtakes Clune on Ní Riada's transfers.

Sinn Féin have asked for a recount, so it'll be some time until we actually know the final result.

It'd probably be worse for Clune if the count had been based on a 4 seat quota: Kelly wouldn't have been declared elected when he was, so would have accumulated more votes, which presumably are disproportionately the ones which went to his running mate.

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Konfederacja results across the Poland:




You can clearly see Grzegorz Braun effect in Podkarpacie.

And Kukiz'15

[Steffers]

Finnish MEPs

SDP (S&D)

Eero "Goebbels" Heinäluoma, long-time Trade Union official, who turned later SDP leader.

Mia-Petra Kumpula-Natri.  First generation EU-era politicians since nineties.

NCP (EPP)

P. Sarvamaa, former reporter of YLE  who predicted Trump winning on early stage of presidental  contest. Belongs to libertarian wing of party.

H.Virkkunen Katainen-era minister and former minister.

S. Pietikäinen, belongs to left wing of the party, former minister in nineties.

Kesk (ALDE)

M. Pekkarinen, symbol of classical Centre party politician, who used to be MP over 40 years.

E. Katainen, Savonian farmer, rather typical Centre party carrier politician.

SFP ( ALDE)

N. Torvalds. Former communist turned NATO-supporter, Grandfather of Linux.

Greens (GRN-AFE)

H. Hautala , firstish generation Green politician. Has been in some sort of parliament since 1991.

V. Niinistö, nephew of president from Turku, belongs to academic, and enviromentalist wing of party.

PS (EAPN)

L. Huhtasaari, pro-Trump and alt-right poltician, who has found quite a new niche, in Finnish political climate.

T. Hakkarainen, PS states-man and strategist.

You forgot Modig. Silvia Modig, Left Alliance (GUE/NGL) MEP, is firmly on the left-green wing of Left Alliance and will probably continue her predecessor Merja Kyllönen's line of being one of the most moderate GUE/NGL MEPs.

Also, calling Heinäluoma "Göbbels" is just weird and Ville Niinistö is not really on the environmentalist wing of the Greens - it was during his leadership that Greens took major strides in making their social agenda heard and temporarily  replacing the Social Democrats as the main party of the center-left opposition.

Teuvo Hakkarainen is, of course, hardly a statesman or a strategist, but I would guess that it's a case where the irony is obvious to Finns and perhaps not so much to non-Finns...

[parochial boy]

Age breakdowns from France are kind of interesting, this is just one example but it does point to a certain... generational malaise for Les Républicains in particular



The polls were not great this time round in France. I mean, FN slightly underperformed polling, but within the margin of error so that's no great shock - but they got EELV and LR pretty badly off; which I guess is a factor of it being hard-ish to predict who was actually going to turnout in the end.

[YL]

Count 16

Kelly (FG) elected
Wallace (I4C) 101,725
O'Sullivan (Green) 93,123
Kelleher (FF) 92,885
Ní Riada (SF) 91,839
Clune (FG) 89,743
Byrne (FF) 80,623 eliminated

... which means I'm changing my guess to O'Sullivan getting an immediate seat and Clune getting the Brexit-conditional one.

Are they counting using a quota based on 4 because they didn't anticipate the UK still being in, and it was too hard to change it?

Order of election does not necessarily match who would be elected if they used a larger quota to begin with.

It's a 4 seater without Brexit and a 5 seater with it.  They're using a quota based on 5, and declaring that the last person elected doesn't get to take their seat yet.  It is true that the result would potentially be different if they used a quota based on 4.

Count 18 gave

Kelly (FG) elected
Kelleher (FF) elected
Wallace (I4C) 112,441
Clune (FG) 101,012
O'Sullivan (Green) 98,706
Ní Riada (SF) 98,379

In a normal 5 seat STV election that would be it: Wallace, Clune and O'Sullivan would be declared elected.  But because of this business about the last seat it isn't a normal STV election, and they will now follow what Dublin did and transfer Ní Riada's votes to see what the finishing order is.  (There's also a 17 vote Kelly surplus, but it's unlikely to be that close.)  There is some controversy around this, so expect FG to kick up a fuss if O'Sullivan overtakes Clune on Ní Riada's transfers.

Sinn Féin have asked for a recount, so it'll be some time until we actually know the final result.

It'd probably be worse for Clune if the count had been based on a 4 seat quota: Kelly wouldn't have been declared elected when he was, so would have accumulated more votes, which presumably are disproportionately the ones which went to his running mate.

There is going to be a full recount.  Apparently this could take "up to a month".

https://www.rte.ie/news/elections-2019/2019/0530/1052522-ireland-south/

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Lewica Razem result

[bigic]

Why are they relatively strong (although 2-4% isn't strong) in the area of central Poland southwest of Warsaw? I'm also interested in the 4+% area - is it Krakow?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Age breakdowns from France are kind of interesting, this is just one example but it does point to a certain... generational malaise for Les Républicains in particular



The polls were not great this time round in France. I mean, FN slightly underperformed polling, but within the margin of error so that's no great shock - but they got EELV and LR pretty badly off; which I guess is a factor of it being hard-ish to predict who was actually going to turnout in the end.

Also very striking that MUH NEW WORLD!!!!!1!11!! polls best with older voters (especially given how much FBM's policies had supposedly pissed off retirees).

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Why are they relatively strong (although 2-4% isn't strong) in the area of central Poland southwest of Warsaw? I'm also interested in the 4+% area - is it Krakow?

Łódź Voivodship and Piotr Ikonowicz (which is mine electoral district and for whom I voted) who is relatively well known (at least compared to other Lewica Razem list leaders he is the best known person) former leader of Polish Socialist Party, former Sejm MP and anti-communist opposition activist, currently focused mainly on helping people who are being evicted from their flats). He is awful politician (he is anti-Midas in terms of politics) but totally sort of economically underprivileged groups champion thus perceived as positive character and received better result. As for the 4% area its Olkusz county from which leader of the list in Lesser Poland-Świętokrzyskie district Jan Orkisz (from Unia Pracy, not Razem) comes from and reside, he is well known local politician so he is also locally supported more than in other parts.

[parochial boy]

Age breakdowns from France are kind of interesting, this is just one example but it does point to a certain... generational malaise for Les Républicains in particular



The polls were not great this time round in France. I mean, FN slightly underperformed polling, but within the margin of error so that's no great shock - but they got EELV and LR pretty badly off; which I guess is a factor of it being hard-ish to predict who was actually going to turnout in the end.

Also very striking that MUH NEW WORLD!!!!!1!11!! polls best with older voters (especially given how much FBM's policies had supposedly pissed off retirees).

« C'est un parti de la jeunesse » Nathalie Loiseau

[Hash]

Also very striking that MUH NEW WORLD!!!!!1!11!! polls best with older voters (especially given how much FBM's policies had supposedly pissed off retirees).

There's a much stronger age/generational gap in the macronista vote this year than in 2017, and it is in large part due to macronismo further siphoning off a good portion of the old mainstream right's electorate (around a quarter of Fillon 2017 voters who turned out in 2019, according to all exit polls). This means that LREM's support is much more reflective of the right's traditional patterns of support in years past (across occupational/professional, income/class and even religious categories) than it was in 2017. Not surprising if you've been paying attention, although it may come as a surprise to those who continue to imagine that FBM is a dreamy liberal centrist progressive.

[Ethelberth]

What makes rather rural Warmia-Mazuria so non-PiS. Just combined PO-PSL machine is strong enough?

[Lexii, harbinger of chaos and sexual anarchy]

Why are they relatively strong (although 2-4% isn't strong) in the area of central Poland southwest of Warsaw? I'm also interested in the 4+% area - is it Krakow?

That's Olkusz County, just north of Krakow

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

What makes rather rural Warmia-Mazuria so non-PiS. Just combined PO-PSL machine is strong enough?

See post previous page about post-war processes + Ukrainians to some extend.

[Tintrlvr]

Age breakdowns from France are kind of interesting, this is just one example but it does point to a certain... generational malaise for Les Républicains in particular



The polls were not great this time round in France. I mean, FN slightly underperformed polling, but within the margin of error so that's no great shock - but they got EELV and LR pretty badly off; which I guess is a factor of it being hard-ish to predict who was actually going to turnout in the end.

Also very striking that MUH NEW WORLD!!!!!1!11!! polls best with older voters (especially given how much FBM's policies had supposedly pissed off retirees).

« C'est un parti de la jeunesse » Nathalie Loiseau

Part of this is surely because young Macron voters switched to EELV in a proportional vote but may switch back in France’s normal quasi-FPTP/runoff system.

[parochial boy]

Age breakdowns from France are kind of interesting, this is just one example but it does point to a certain... generational malaise for Les Républicains in particular



The polls were not great this time round in France. I mean, FN slightly underperformed polling, but within the margin of error so that's no great shock - but they got EELV and LR pretty badly off; which I guess is a factor of it being hard-ish to predict who was actually going to turnout in the end.

Also very striking that MUH NEW WORLD!!!!!1!11!! polls best with older voters (especially given how much FBM's policies had supposedly pissed off retirees).

« C'est un parti de la jeunesse » Nathalie Loiseau

Part of this is surely because young Macron voters switched to EELV in a proportional vote but may switch back in France’s normal quasi-FPTP/runoff system.

I doubt it tbh. Macron was already mediocre with young people in 2017, it was Mélenchon and Hamon who overperformed most. Add in that ecology has become an almost era defining issue for young Europeans; and that Macron has actively alienated a lot of people that age with his reforms to, among other things, education (trying to introduce selection, the controversies around the launch of Parcoursup, even little things like making them pay more to get the Paris metro).

Don't forget that around this time last year we were seeing the huge protests of both cheminots and students.

[Keep Calm and ...]

Sweden:

Party        %   +/-    seats (+/-)
M:   16,83% +3,18   4 +1
C:   10,78% +4,30   2 +1
L:     4,13% -5,79    1 -1
KD:   8,62% +2,69   2 +1
S:   23,47% -0,72    5
V:     6,80% +0,50   1
MP: 11,52% -3,88    2 -2 (after Brexit: 3 -1)
SD: 15,34% +5,67   3 +1
FI:    0,77% -4,71    0 -1
PP     0,64% -1,59   
others:   1,09% +0,36   
            
turnout:   55,27%   +4,19   

https://data.val.se/val/ep2019/slutresultat/E/rike/index.html
https://data.val.se/val/ep2019/slutresultat/E/rike/valda.html

[H. Ross Peron]

Does the urban working class in Poland prefer KO or PiS?

[Grand Wizard Lizard of the Klan]

Does the urban working class in Poland prefer KO or PiS?

PiS leaning.