Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

2014 was clearly based on people getting bored or frustrated with Obama than Republicans becoming popular.

Yes, I think the best reaction to any analysis of 2014 is to express surprise that federal elections took place in that year. 2014 mid-terms? What mid-terms?

Boehner was popular in 2014/ and he was unpopular in 2016, McCarthy has the same exact Approvals as Boehner 15%

[Sir Mohamed]

2014 was clearly based on people getting bored or frustrated with Obama than Republicans becoming popular.

Yes, I think the best reaction to any analysis of 2014 is to express surprise that federal elections took place in that year. 2014 mid-terms? What mid-terms?

Boehner was popular in 2014/ and he was unpopular in 2016, McCarthy has the same exact Approvals as Boehner 15%

Boehner was never popular, not even among GOPers. Especially not among them.

[Person Man]

2014 was clearly based on people getting bored or frustrated with Obama than Republicans becoming popular.

Yes, I think the best reaction to any analysis of 2014 is to express surprise that federal elections took place in that year. 2014 mid-terms? What mid-terms?

Boehner was popular in 2014/ and he was unpopular in 2016, McCarthy has the same exact Approvals as Boehner 15%

Boehner was never popular, not even among GOPers. Especially not among them.

He cried a lot. 'Nuff said. The only Republican congressional leader that has ultimately effective has been McConnell.

By the end of the year, I will know if Pelosi is up there on the Democratic side.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs don't want to go by polls they want to go by Biden Approvals lol we won in 2008/12 the Red Wall states with an NPVI of six
.
Nikki Fried leads in FL and Rs are at 30% in OH Sen

[MT Treasurer]

2014 was clearly based on people getting bored or frustrated with Obama than Republicans becoming popular.

Republicans don’t win (wave) elections because their party is popular, they win them because they’re seen as the lesser of two evils in a two-party system.

If you (and I don’t mean you but the people who have voiced this sentiment in this thread) "feel" like there’s not the same intense backlash against Biden as against Obama among the vast majority of those who disapprove of his performance, maybe you’re talking to the wrong people in the wrong places — this seems to be a general problem these days, not just among pollsters. In most red or bright red states (not just MT), Biden never even benefited from the kind of goodwill that Obama benefited from, and whatever goodwill he had/still has he’s trying hard to squander. I also think the blame very much lies with Pelosi/Schumer here as well — there’s a good chance he would be governing at least somewhat differently and less uncompromisingly if he didn’t have a trifecta, but maybe that’s just wishful thinking since he would have just issued way more executive orders then. Either way, the party is dragging him to the left and wants him to legislate like a president with veto-proof majorities, and the only notion of compromise this administration seems to believe in is one in which a gun is held to the head of the other side and the dominant party dictates the terms of the compromise.  

The reason this decline in Biden's approval numbers should concern Democrats isn’t because of the current situation in Afghanistan (most of this will eventually be forgotten and is unlikely to be much of an issue in November 2022) but rather because it suggests than Biden does not have an unshakable floor of ~48% he can count on to approve of him no matter what, i.e., like previous administrations, this one cannot rely on 'polarization' to save it from a widespread backlash at the polls. I’ve stopped counting the times when 'polarization' was supposed to result in an atypical midterm election — I was one of those who thought that we would see such a midterm in 2018 because Trump had changed everything and I was even 'feeling' the hidden backlash against obstructionist Democrats the day before Democrats flipped the Alabama Senate seat. Nearly all of us who regularly post on a forum like this live in a bubble, guys.

I also think the Democrats' messaging on COVID and (of course) culture issues is absolutely abysmal and will be the main reason for any red wave, certainly more so than some foreign policy blunder. It’s impossible to overstate just how out of touch they’re with large swathes of the country on these issues, and they’re doing their best to exacerbate this in what many people feel is just a country in which one party loves to spit on their values and rub it in their faces (Biden's flip-flip on Hyde is emblematic of this, as is the OR outdoor mask mandate for vaccinated and unvaccinated people). Just because you as a partisan Democrat don’t see why this might generate backlash or don’t 'feel' any backlash doesn’t mean it isn’t real.

[wbrocks67]

2014 was clearly based on people getting bored or frustrated with Obama than Republicans becoming popular.

Republicans don’t win (wave) elections because their party is popular, they win them because they’re seen as the lesser of two evils in a two-party system.

If you (and I don’t mean you but the people who have voiced this sentiment in this thread) "feel" like there’s not the same intense backlash against Biden as against Obama among the vast majority of those who disapprove of his performance, maybe you’re talking to the wrong people in the wrong places — this seems to be a general problem these days, not just among pollsters. In most red or bright red states (not just MT), Biden never even benefited from the kind of goodwill that Obama benefited from, and whatever goodwill he had/still has he’s trying hard to squander. I also think the blame very much lies with Pelosi/Schumer here as well — there’s a good chance he would be governing at least somewhat differently and less uncompromisingly if he didn’t have a trifecta, but maybe that’s just wishful thinking since he would have just issued way more executive orders then. Either way, the party is dragging him to the left and wants him to legislate like a president with veto-proof majorities, and the only notion of compromise this administration seems to believe in is one in which a gun is held to the head of the other side and the dominant party dictates the terms of the compromise.  

The reason this decline in Biden's approval numbers should concern Democrats isn’t because of the current situation in Afghanistan (most of this will eventually be forgotten and is unlikely to be much of an issue in November 2022) but rather because it suggests than Biden does not have an unshakable floor of ~48% he can count on to approve of him no matter what, i.e., like previous administrations, this one cannot rely on 'polarization' to save it from a widespread backlash at the polls. I’ve stopped counting the times when 'polarization' was supposed to result in an atypical midterm election — I was one of those who thought that we would see such a midterm in 2018 because Trump had changed everything and I was even 'feeling' the hidden backlash against obstructionist Democrats the day before Democrats flipped the Alabama Senate seat. Nearly all of us who regularly post on a forum like this live in a bubble, guys.

I also think the Democrats' messaging on COVID and (of course) culture issues is absolutely abysmal and will be the main reason for any red wave, certainly more so than some foreign policy blunder. It’s impossible to overstate just how out of touch they’re with large swathes of the country on these issues, and they’re doing their best to exacerbate this in what many people feel is just a country in which one party loves to spit on their values and rub it in their faces (Biden's flip-flip on Hyde is emblematic of this, as is the OR outdoor mask mandate for vaccinated and unvaccinated people). Just because you as a partisan Democrat don’t see why this might generate backlash or don’t 'feel' any backlash doesn’t mean it isn’t real.

This part is curious because it's clearly the Republican governors who are out of step with the American public, banning mask mandates for schools, etc. Pretty sure Dems are just as furious with the unvaccinated as everyone else, so unless you're specifically talking with CDC messaging, I'm not sure how Dems 'messaging' on COVID has been off? Numerous polls have shown that a majority of Americans support masks and vaccines.

[DaleCooper]

2014 was clearly based on people getting bored or frustrated with Obama than Republicans becoming popular.

Republicans don’t win (wave) elections because their party is popular, they win them because they’re seen as the lesser of two evils in a two-party system.

If you (and I don’t mean you but the people who have voiced this sentiment in this thread) "feel" like there’s not the same intense backlash against Biden as against Obama among the vast majority of those who disapprove of his performance, maybe you’re talking to the wrong people in the wrong places — this seems to be a general problem these days, not just among pollsters. In most red or bright red states (not just MT), Biden never even benefited from the kind of goodwill that Obama benefited from, and whatever goodwill he had/still has he’s trying hard to squander. I also think the blame very much lies with Pelosi/Schumer here as well — there’s a good chance he would be governing at least somewhat differently and less uncompromisingly if he didn’t have a trifecta, but maybe that’s just wishful thinking since he would have just issued way more executive orders then. Either way, the party is dragging him to the left and wants him to legislate like a president with veto-proof majorities, and the only notion of compromise this administration seems to believe in is one in which a gun is held to the head of the other side and the dominant party dictates the terms of the compromise.  

The reason this decline in Biden's approval numbers should concern Democrats isn’t because of the current situation in Afghanistan (most of this will eventually be forgotten and is unlikely to be much of an issue in November 2022) but rather because it suggests than Biden does not have an unshakable floor of ~48% he can count on to approve of him no matter what, i.e., like previous administrations, this one cannot rely on 'polarization' to save it from a widespread backlash at the polls. I’ve stopped counting the times when 'polarization' was supposed to result in an atypical midterm election — I was one of those who thought that we would see such a midterm in 2018 because Trump had changed everything and I was even 'feeling' the hidden backlash against obstructionist Democrats the day before Democrats flipped the Alabama Senate seat. Nearly all of us who regularly post on a forum like this live in a bubble, guys.

I also think the Democrats' messaging on COVID and (of course) culture issues is absolutely abysmal and will be the main reason for any red wave, certainly more so than some foreign policy blunder. It’s impossible to overstate just how out of touch they’re with large swathes of the country on these issues, and they’re doing their best to exacerbate this in what many people feel is just a country in which one party loves to spit on their values and rub it in their faces (Biden's flip-flip on Hyde is emblematic of this, as is the OR outdoor mask mandate for vaccinated and unvaccinated people). Just because you as a partisan Democrat don’t see why this might generate backlash or don’t 'feel' any backlash doesn’t mean it isn’t real.

This part is curious because it's clearly the Republican governors who are out of step with the American public, banning mask mandates for schools, etc. Pretty sure Dems are just as furious with the unvaccinated as everyone else, so unless you're specifically talking with CDC messaging, I'm not sure how Dems 'messaging' on COVID has been off? Numerous polls have shown that a majority of Americans support masks and vaccines.

I can tell you right now that you are shockingly out of touch with large swaths of the country if you think that mask mandates for the vaccinated and bi-annual COVID booster shots are broadly popular. Being in favor of common sense public health measures does not mean that they are also in favor of the blatant alarmism that we've reverted to over the last couple months.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Aug. 21-24, 1500 adults including 1242 RV


Adults:

Approve 46 (+2)
Disapprove 44 (nc)

Strongly approve 22 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 36 (+3)


RV:

Approve 48 (+1)
Disapprove 46 (-1)

Strongly approve 24 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 38 (+1)


It's only one poll, but possibly Biden's slide has bottomed out.  It will be interesting to see what the Ipsos weekly tracker looks like on Friday.

[compucomp]

2014 was clearly based on people getting bored or frustrated with Obama than Republicans becoming popular.

Republicans don’t win (wave) elections because their party is popular, they win them because they’re seen as the lesser of two evils in a two-party system.

If you (and I don’t mean you but the people who have voiced this sentiment in this thread) "feel" like there’s not the same intense backlash against Biden as against Obama among the vast majority of those who disapprove of his performance, maybe you’re talking to the wrong people in the wrong places — this seems to be a general problem these days, not just among pollsters. In most red or bright red states (not just MT), Biden never even benefited from the kind of goodwill that Obama benefited from, and whatever goodwill he had/still has he’s trying hard to squander. I also think the blame very much lies with Pelosi/Schumer here as well — there’s a good chance he would be governing at least somewhat differently and less uncompromisingly if he didn’t have a trifecta, but maybe that’s just wishful thinking since he would have just issued way more executive orders then. Either way, the party is dragging him to the left and wants him to legislate like a president with veto-proof majorities, and the only notion of compromise this administration seems to believe in is one in which a gun is held to the head of the other side and the dominant party dictates the terms of the compromise.  

The reason this decline in Biden's approval numbers should concern Democrats isn’t because of the current situation in Afghanistan (most of this will eventually be forgotten and is unlikely to be much of an issue in November 2022) but rather because it suggests than Biden does not have an unshakable floor of ~48% he can count on to approve of him no matter what, i.e., like previous administrations, this one cannot rely on 'polarization' to save it from a widespread backlash at the polls. I’ve stopped counting the times when 'polarization' was supposed to result in an atypical midterm election — I was one of those who thought that we would see such a midterm in 2018 because Trump had changed everything and I was even 'feeling' the hidden backlash against obstructionist Democrats the day before Democrats flipped the Alabama Senate seat. Nearly all of us who regularly post on a forum like this live in a bubble, guys.

I also think the Democrats' messaging on COVID and (of course) culture issues is absolutely abysmal and will be the main reason for any red wave, certainly more so than some foreign policy blunder. It’s impossible to overstate just how out of touch they’re with large swathes of the country on these issues, and they’re doing their best to exacerbate this in what many people feel is just a country in which one party loves to spit on their values and rub it in their faces (Biden's flip-flip on Hyde is emblematic of this, as is the OR outdoor mask mandate for vaccinated and unvaccinated people). Just because you as a partisan Democrat don’t see why this might generate backlash or don’t 'feel' any backlash doesn’t mean it isn’t real.

This part is curious because it's clearly the Republican governors who are out of step with the American public, banning mask mandates for schools, etc. Pretty sure Dems are just as furious with the unvaccinated as everyone else, so unless you're specifically talking with CDC messaging, I'm not sure how Dems 'messaging' on COVID has been off? Numerous polls have shown that a majority of Americans support masks and vaccines.

I can tell you right now that you are shockingly out of touch with large swaths of the country if you think that mask mandates for the vaccinated and bi-annual COVID booster shots are broadly popular. Being in favor of common sense public health measures does not mean that they are also in favor of the blatant alarmism that we've reverted to over the last couple months.

By what measure? What you see when you go out and about? By the people you talk to and read on Twitter? If you judge by what you see, then that is biased by the people who are actually going out, cautious people are still limiting their activity in public so you see them less. If you judge by the people you talk to, then that's clearly a biased sample, you're more likely to talk to a younger population who takes COVID less seriously and thus hates the restrictions more, while you're unlikely talk to the elderly people who are terrified of COVID and may even still be sheltering in place.

You can "add 5 points to the Republican" on these polls and they would still show at least solid support for masks and vaccines, at least 50%, while you're implying the real support is something like 20%. There must be a social desirability bias on a scale never before observed if the polls are wrong and you're right.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

pbower2A CCM is now loosing by 10, haven't heard much from pbower2A lately, Suffolk poll had it 41/55 Biden Approvals/Disapproval, this is what happens stuff like this when you don't renew Unemployment and Covid crisis is the same under Trump

The UBI benefits were only supposed to be discontinued if Covid left, they have job shortages because it's factory jobs to white collar jobs and you have to work weekends, nights and Holidays

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yang UBI program didnt stop when Jobs came back it stopped when Income  inequality left, that was what was wrong with the Biden 1.9T policy, unfortunately, Delta caused Covid to come back and only people with Child tax credit that are middle class anyways get Stimulus, leaving Seniors and people on SSI out whom already have grown kids and state stimulus only applies for people that work, EITC

But, Tester, Manchin and Sinema said they were against a Yang UBI program but no persuasion from Biden, he didn't fight for it

Just like Bill Clinton could of put ACA thru Reconciliation and he fell for the R Filibuster

[MT Treasurer]

FL-Quinnipiac:

53% Disapprove
40% Approve

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3818

[roxas11]

FL-Quinnipiac:

53% Disapprove
40% Approve

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3818

looks like poor Ron DeSantis is not doing too mutch better than biden is

51% Disapprove
44% Approve

Which is crazy because unlike Biden he actually won this state in 2018 and now his poll number are dropping like a stone...

[Devils30]

A lot of pollsters are trying new things to capture Trump supporters in places they missed in 2020. While they might get it right, using a 2010-14 style electorate could also backfire the other way. It will help to get some real election results in VA and NJ soon.

[MT Treasurer]

FL-Quinnipiac:

53% Disapprove
40% Approve

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3818

looks like poor Ron DeSantis is not doing too mutch better than biden is

51% Disapprove
44% Approve

Which is crazy because unlike Biden he actually won this state in 2018 and now his poll number are dropping like a stone...

This is inaccurate — you picked out his numbers on "handling public schools." His overall approval rating is +2 (47/45). It’s the first question...

[Matty]

It makes me so angry qtrash survived 2020 in terms of credibility

[roxas11]

FL-Quinnipiac:

53% Disapprove
40% Approve

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3818

looks like poor Ron DeSantis is not doing too mutch better than biden is

51% Disapprove
44% Approve

Which is crazy because unlike Biden he actually won this state in 2018 and now his poll number are dropping like a stone...

This is inaccurate — you picked out his numbers on "handling public schools." His overall approval rating is +2 (47/45). It’s the first question...

those numbers are still terrible for a governer who was doing way better than that, not too long ago and if this is what his numbers currently is when it comes to his "handling of public schools. Then what happens once we get into the fall school season...

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

FL-Quinnipiac:

53% Disapprove
40% Approve

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3818

looks like poor Ron DeSantis is not doing too mutch better than biden is

51% Disapprove
44% Approve

Which is crazy because unlike Biden he actually won this state in 2018 and now his poll number are dropping like a stone...

This is inaccurate — you picked out his numbers on "handling public schools." His overall approval rating is +2 (47/45). It’s the first question...

those numbers are still terrible for a governer who was doing way better than that, not too long ago and if this is what his numbers currently is when it comes to his "handling public schools. Then what happens once we in get into the fall school season...

48/45 think DeSantis deserved re-election. They showed Gillum +7
40/53 approves Biden's. They showed Biden +5 in GE.

Difficult to spin it as good news for Democrats.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1425507048243011584

First poll of Wisconsin from this source, according to my recollection,  since the 2020 election.



This was pbower2A Approvals in NC, Strong D, No More

Key:

30% red shade: Biden up 1-5%
40% red shade: Biden up 5-10%
50% red shade: Biden up 10-15%
60% red shade: Biden up 15-20%
70% red shade: Biden up 20-25%
80% red shade: Biden up 25-30%
90% red shade: Biden up 30%+

50% green shade: tie

30% blue shade: Biden down 1-5%
40% blue shade: Biden down 5-10%
50% blue shade: Biden down 10-15%
60% blue shade: Biden down 15-20%
70% blue shade: Biden down 20-25%
80% blue shade: Biden down 25-30%
90% blue shade: Biden down 30%+

So much for Cheri Beasley

But, but, but pbower2A Approval maps have D's leading in TX and FL and strong in NC

Well that's not the case in FL anymore, Biden has an unfavorable poll there

[Mr.Phips]

FL-Quinnipiac:

53% Disapprove
40% Approve

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3818

Is this a surprise?  Florida has been gone for Democrats since 2012 and the sooner they realize it the better.

[roxas11]

FL-Quinnipiac:

53% Disapprove
40% Approve

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3818

looks like poor Ron DeSantis is not doing too mutch better than biden is

51% Disapprove
44% Approve

Which is crazy because unlike Biden he actually won this state in 2018 and now his poll number are dropping like a stone...

This is inaccurate — you picked out his numbers on "handling public schools." His overall approval rating is +2 (47/45). It’s the first question...

those numbers are still terrible for a governer who was doing way better than that, not too long ago and if this is what his numbers currently is when it comes to his "handling public schools. Then what happens once we in get into the fall school season...

48/45 think DeSantis deserved re-election. They showed Gillum +7
40/53 approves Biden's. They showed Biden +5 in GE.

Difficult to spin it as good news for Democrats.

I never made any claim that this was good news for Democrats in my original post

I simply pointed out that Ron numbers have clearly declined compared where they were only a few months ago

[Progressive Pessimist]

FL-Quinnipiac:

53% Disapprove
40% Approve

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3818

looks like poor Ron DeSantis is not doing too mutch better than biden is

51% Disapprove
44% Approve

Which is crazy because unlike Biden he actually won this state in 2018 and now his poll number are dropping like a stone...

But DeSantis can win here with a negative approval rating, especially in a midterm where even Democratic-friendly ones result in Republican wins. Biden can't, full-stop. Especially if we skew this poll on the Florida curve. If that wasn't enough we also have to include the Quinnipiac curve, after their utter failure to accurately poll this race in 2018, we are looking at a red tide tsunami in this state in 2022, even if DeSantis and Rubio were to French kiss the Castros (yes, I'm including the deceased Fidel). Nothing matters when you're a Republican! Hooray!

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

But, but, but pbower2A says Biden has a 59% Approval ratings, LOL NOTHING HAS CHANGED Nate Silver 304 map and NC isn't Strong D while GA goes R

[MR DARK BRANDON]

But, but, but pbower2A says Biden has a 59% Approval ratings, LOL NOTHING HAS CHANGED Nate Silver 304 map and NC isn't Strong D while GA goes R

What even is the 304 map? Cause I can’t think of a single way in which Dems get exactly 304 EVS

[pbrower2a]

https://twitter.com/MULawPoll/status/1425507048243011584

First poll of Wisconsin from this source, according to my recollection,  since the 2020 election.



This was pbower2A Approvals in NC, Strong D, No More

Key:

30% red shade: Biden up 1-5%
40% red shade: Biden up 5-10%
50% red shade: Biden up 10-15%
60% red shade: Biden up 15-20%
70% red shade: Biden up 20-25%
80% red shade: Biden up 25-30%
90% red shade: Biden up 30%+

50% green shade: tie

30% blue shade: Biden down 1-5%
40% blue shade: Biden down 5-10%
50% blue shade: Biden down 10-15%
60% blue shade: Biden down 15-20%
70% blue shade: Biden down 20-25%
80% blue shade: Biden down 25-30%
90% blue shade: Biden down 30%+

So much for Cheri Beasley

But, but, but pbower2A Approval maps have D's leading in TX and FL and strong in NC

Well that's not the case in FL anymore, Biden has an unfavorable poll there

Don't attack me for obsolete data unless I stick with it. I do not  replace obsolete data before I see a poll that replaces obsolete data. Some of those glittering numbers for Biden are really old, and they come from long before the situation collapsed in Afghanistan.

Polling has been slow so far. Events will shake things up.

Key:

30% red shade: Biden up 1-5%
40% red shade: Biden up 5-10%
50% red shade: Biden up 10-15%
60% red shade: Biden up 15-20%
70% red shade: Biden up 20-25%
80% red shade: Biden up 25-30%
90% red shade: Biden up 30%+

50% green shade: tie

30% blue shade: Biden down 1-5%
40% blue shade: Biden down 5-10%
50% blue shade: Biden down 10-15%
60% blue shade: Biden down 15-20%
70% blue shade: Biden down 20-25%
80% blue shade: Biden down 25-30%
90% blue shade: Biden down 30%+

There are plenty of polling results that I no longer see relevant. If I am to look only at the two most recent statewide polls here, then Joe Biden will be a one-term President to be supplanted by someone more ruthless and competent than Donald Trump -- and even more reactionary. In such an America, the "Christian and Corporate State", the kindest thing that one could do for an infant is to arrange for an international adoption. The second-kindest would be an abortion.

Under the reactionary dream, America would become a pure plutocracy in which nothing matters except the power, indulgence, and gain of a tiny clique of economic elites (PIG -- as in "fascist pig" or the dominant characters in George Orwell's Animal Farm). Right-wing Republicans would win elections in many places that they normally lose, and they would have the ability to make America resemble Pinochet's Chile without the military shtick or a feudal order without the titles of nobility. 95% of the people would suffer for the 1% in return for promises of Pie in the Sky When You Die or would die horribly if they ever so much as grumbled about the new serfdom. So, liberals -- prepare to hate life so much that you will regret that you were even born!

Such is how that poll looks.

OK, so much for the hyperbole. All polls are snapshots. I'd like to see people on the Hard Right explain how they would have handled "Afghanistan" differently. I see shaky control by a seedy and shady regime in which regional commanders and local administrators pocketed most of the funds until the Taliban came and then told them that they could keep their numbered Swiss bank accounts if they surrendered. Afghanistan had plenty of quislings, and it would not have mattered who was President of the US at the time.

(In view of the Taliban and its reputation in its last stay in Afghanistan, I expect the Taliban to make the Viet Cong and the North Vietnamese Army look like gentlemen by contrast... and that's highly derogatory.

Oh, by the way: Republican pols aren;t doing all that well in Florida:

DeSantis 47-45
Scott 42-40
Rubio 49-30

If things are so great for Republicans, then DeSantis and Scott would be in a position to wipe out any Democrat. Rubio is just short of 50, but the others should be doing as well if Democrats are already wiped-out in Florida. 

Afghanistan  looks much like the Republic of Vietnam in similar time in March and April 1975, except that the Republic of Vietnam was much smaller. By 1976 most Americans no longer found Gerald Ford culpable for the Fall of Saigon... and Jimmy Carter did not press it in the election. Carter won the election  for reasons other than the fall of an indefensible ally with a rotten regime. Memories will be short. A collapse like that of the former government of Afghanistan does not happen unless the regime has been doing more with smoke and mirrors than with any real effectiveness.