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Edison Research has Twitter losing nearly a third of its American users between Jan 2023 and Jan 2024 (mostly in the late summer when the Twitter to X name change happened...hypothesis is a number of the more casual users literally didn't recognize the X app on their phone).

The pattern seems to be that the more casual users are drifting away while more hardcore posters continue to post steadily but with fewer and fewer people hearing what they're saying. Generally less impactful vs its heyday.

Slowly but surely a number of people who are big account holders with 500k followers will realize that only 300k of those are people who ever actually use Twitter anymore and their microphone is way weaker than they think it is.

Where are people who have left X going?

Biden will definitely win some of these states, but at the current time, strictly speaking I'd only rate MN as "at least Lean D" (it's Likely D, and tbh, closer to Safe than Lean in terms of outcome).

As of now I’d give him MN, WI, MI, PA and AZ

I definitely still think that GA will vote to the left of AZ, so if AZ is on this list, GA should be too.

Otherwise (honestly this is more of a gut feeling than anything else), I'm guessing the map might be, like, all of Biden's 2020 states minus WI, maybe NV and possibly AZ.

Well, New Zealand would have been the objectively correct answer (of the options given, anyway) until about forty years ago, and many stereotypes have not really caught up.

Yeah, ik this is statistically insignificant, ofc, but I still feel like it's something more people would have caught - for me it stood out immediately given that it was literally a speck of orange in a sea of blue. Again, it's not something people care about, but it's not like a hidden needle in a haystack - this county sticks out like a sore thumb on the map, especially given it's one of those random square counties in the middle of nowhere.

I honestly figured it's just one of those counties where there are like a dozen odd voters and it just had like, idk, some people come in from out of county or something. But yeah, given what Kwabbit said, it's pretty clearly just a wrong result.

Pretty embarrassing if you ask me, just because the one Haley victory in the entire state is the result of an error. Embarrassing for both Haley and the TXGOP/SOS.

Biden will definitely win some of these states, but at the current time, strictly speaking I'd only rate MN as "at least Lean D" (it's Likely D, and tbh, closer to Safe than Lean in terms of outcome).

As of now I’d give him MN, WI, MI, PA and AZ

Speaking of which, does anyone have any information on how Cate Blanchett feels about Morfydd Clark playing her character?  We know Morfydd (who was only 11 or 12 when the original LOTR trilogy came out) looks upon Cate much like we do -as a fan looking upon a distant star.  I think she mentioned she felt (and I think still feels) too intimidated and starstruck to talk to Cate directly.  

But how about on the other end -what does Cate think about Morfydd's performance as Galadriel?  And if she were directing the Rings of Power from the start, would she have selected her?

For a federal charge, I don't see an obvious reason why such a plea deal would be illegal or unconstitutional, but I'm a little dubious that this could be done with state charges.  But in any case, (a) Trump would never accept the acknowledgement of guilt that a plea deal would require, and (b) the Biden administration would never offer such a deal because it would foster the narrative that the prosecutions were purely political.

     I agree it would be amazing; greed is a massive idol in this country and nobody seriously questions it. Who among us could be the widow giving her entire livelihood? Certainly not I.

     I bring it up because by the standards of the FB post Lyndon shared he would be forced to also condemn that message, as it is telling others how to live (or I suppose, "controlling" them). If that was his point, he did not communicate it well.

If they start putting their money where their mouth is (like they do decades now with abortion and gay rights) then we'll see.

     I've spoken out elsewhere about the need to help others and criticized the modern GOP for their fanatical hatred of doing such, but at the end of the day the message I proposed is still "controlling others" just as much as what he actually said was.

Biden will definitely win some of these states, but at the current time, strictly speaking I'd only rate MN as "at least Lean D" (it's Likely D, and tbh, closer to Safe than Lean in terms of outcome).

No New York isn't competitive but the point is that its incredibly significant that a presidential candidate especially a Republican is willing to go to the South Bronx which has traditionally been very hostile turf to the GOP. Like sure Biden could go to Kansas, but would he be willing to go to say Wallace county for a campaign event (not government business)?

This is fundamentally a false equivalency - there's a dramatic difference is in population, and even in the Bronx there are more than enough Trump supporters to fill up a stadium; a lot more people will be reached out to. Wallace County, otoh, has very few voters at all, let alone Biden voters. The Bronx had 67,000 votes for Trump in 2020, whereas Wallace County (where he won 93% of the vote) gave him just 770 (Biden only won 44). There were, in other words, 87 times as many votes for Trump in the deeply Democratic Bronx as there were in the heavily Republican Wallace County, and 1500 times as many Trump voters in the Bronx as there were Biden voters in Wallace County.

Now do you understand? The issue is less that it's deeply Republican and more that there are literally so few people to reach out to. If UT continues trending leftward, it may actually make sense to hold a rally in Utah County, in spite of it being a deeply conservative bastion, because it still has a pretty large number of voters, including Democrats (Biden won just 26% of the vote there, but that still came to over 76k votes).