2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3

[Brittain33]

It's been 20 years since they held this district, so maybe not.

Yes, this is quite good for a Dem here and it's likely to flip R in 2022 if a Dem wins 2020.

[Brittain33]

Arguably the worst House poll for Dems so far:

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1042007681106694145

Matches Democratic underperformance in this district in the primaries, too. I wonder if we’re seeing Asian-American voters being highly anti-Trump but supporting the Korean-American candidate.

[Brittain33]

GHY always has somewhat exuberant results for its Democratic clients, no?

[Brittain33]

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/09/19/florida-2018-elections-miami-27th-828642

FL-27: Maria Elvira Salazar is leading by 7-9 points in an internal poll. Shalala is leading by only 4 in one of her own.This should be a safe pickup. It's probably one of the democrat's biggest recruitment failures of the cycle.

Ideally Dems can pick this up with a better candidate in 2020 if Shalala blows it.

[Brittain33]

Let’s stay on topic—polls. This isn’t a debate thread.

[Brittain33]

FL-6 St Pete Polls: Waltz (R) 48, Soderberg (D) 43

http://floridapolitics.com/archives/275276-waltz-soderberg-cd6-poll

Yeah she gonna lose.

This is not a district that has voted for a Dem in my adult lifetime.

[Brittain33]

FL-6 St Pete Polls: Waltz (R) 48, Soderberg (D) 43

http://floridapolitics.com/archives/275276-waltz-soderberg-cd6-poll

Yeah she gonna lose.

This is not a district that has voted for a Dem in my adult lifetime.

Nelson won it pretty easily in 2012

Apologies, I should have specified for House of Representatives. Although it is helpful to note that it's not a solid R district like FL-1.

[Brittain33]

PPP poll: MN-02 - Craig (D) 48% Lewis (R-inc) 45%

Why does Craig have a -9 favorable rating?

After effect of the 2016 loss?

[Brittain33]

I wonder if Trump's bump from the rescue of those Thai children in the cave might be fading.

[Brittain33]

How is it possible for Pew's poll to have Democrats up 58 - 39 with white college grads, but then only 57 - 38 with college graduates of all races? Non-white college grads are significantly more Democratic than white college grads, even if they are slightly less Democratic than non-white non-college voters.

Shouldn't the total college grads (white/non-white) be > white college grad %?

White college grads also includes postgrads, whereas the regular college grad excludes postgrads (that is another category in that crosstab).

That would explain it. Postgrads are quite a Democratic group, and have been for a while. Does anyone know why postgrads have always been significantly more Democratic than "normal" college educated folks (like those with bachelor degrees)?

Quick facetious one-liner answer - because they are smarter than regular college grads

Real answer - because the same factors that make college-educated voters more likely to be Democratic also make them more likely to be Democratic, such as being more likely than 4 year college grads to have jobs as "knowledge-worker professionals" which is associated with voting Dem.

Meanwhile those who use their degree to become productive members of society (e.g. businessmen, chemical engineers, CPAs, etc.) tend to vote GOP.

I'm a Dem with an MBA who works in the private sector, but thanks for playing.

[Brittain33]

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1045357470879809541

That's fine. This is a conservative district. He can get indicted and get replaced by another Republican whenever.

[Brittain33]

https://twitter.com/sfpathe/status/1046450577998311424

LOL, why would you release this?

Holy crap, that is a horrible poll for Webber. He's going to lose.

[Brittain33]

45% favorability for Trump in that poll, sounds high.

[Brittain33]

FL-15: Spano 49, Carlson 46

https://www.scribd.com/document/389826568/FL-15-Polling-Memo-Ross-Spano-vs-Kristen-Carlson-September-2018-Bold-Blue-Campaigns

Bold Blue Campaign = (D) poll based on their website. This is Likely R IMO.

[Brittain33]

KS-1 is even worse. 41% undecided.

Rural Kansas is notorious for its political independence and lack of party loyalty.

[Brittain33]

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-me-pol-berkeley-la-times-poll-20181004-story.html

CA-22: Nunes 53, Janz 45

CA-50: Hunter 49, Campa-Najjar 47

CA-49: Levin 55, Harkey 41

CA-48: Rouda 48, Rohrabacher 48

CA-45: Porter 52, Walters 45

CA-39: Cisneros 49, Kim 48

CA-25: Hill 50, Knight 46

CA-10: Harder 50, Denham 45

Muh Kavanaugh R bump

[Brittain33]

For some reason, Atlas has always underestimated Cisernos’ strength and waaaaaaay overestimated Kim’s.  I’ve expected a narrow Cisneros win here since before the primary, tbh.

It's not without reason. The two pieces of evidence were Republican strength in the primary (albeit because of a special election) and a recent poll showing Kim reverse burbstomping Cisneros.

[Brittain33]

Is it trolling to say that Cruz, Blackburn, Cramer, and Hawley are pulling away?

Yes, because other than for Cramer where he does look to have pulled away from Heitkamp, it implies both velocity and distance that are not supported by all of the polls.

[Brittain33]

Good God this thread is bad.

Give it a few days to regress to the mean.

[Brittain33]

No way Republicans losing White College Graduate Women by 62-35. Hilarious from WaPo!

Yeah, goodness, they're Trump's biggest fans, and they just love Kavanaugh...

[Brittain33]

I get what you’re saying but there is zero and I repeat ZERO a chance the Dems GAIN in the Senate

Hey, can we get that guy who had to keep looking up the definition of "hyperbole" over here for a moment?

[Brittain33]

I merged it...

[Brittain33]

VA-10 WP/Schar School: Wexton 55, Comstock 43

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/virginia-politics/democrat-wexton-leads-rep-comstock-by-12-points-in-northern-va-district-survey-finds/2018/10/08/9b4a42e2-c829-11e8-b2b5-79270f9cce17_story.html

But UncleSam told me Comstock has a good chance

Her opposition research is vaunted.

[Brittain33]

PA-10 (PPP)

Scott Perry (R) 44
George Scott (D) 43

https://www.scribd.com/document/390025957/New-Public-Policy-Poll-in-PA10#fullscreen&from_embed

It looks like the undecideds are split evenly between Clinton and Trump voters.

[Brittain33]

FL-15 (Club for Growth/Spano internal)

Ross Spano (R) 46
Kristen Carlson (D) 39

GCB is 48-44 Republican

https://twitter.com/actoraaronbooth/status/1049683886467416065?s=21

That seems rather weak for the GOP in this district.

Agreed.