2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3

[Politician]

I think it’s fair to say Young Kim was House GOP’s Best recruit this cycle, no?

Salazar in FL-27 is as well. Combined with Shalala's awfulness and the Republicans could actually win that seat.

[Jeppe]

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/09/19/florida-2018-elections-miami-27th-828642

FL-27:

McLaughlin - Salazar 51, Shalala 42
https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000165-ef6b-d715-aded-effbe69b0000

Bendixen & Amandi - Shalala 46, Salazar 42
https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000165-ef6c-d9ba-a1ef-efefea440001

Yuck.   Even if it is a GOP internal those are bad numbers.   Why why WHY did we nominate Shalala???

The same reason why we nominated Cisneros, Wallace, and Gershon: they're well-connected rich people who got the establishment on their side.

[Strong Candidate]

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/09/19/florida-2018-elections-miami-27th-828642

FL-27:

McLaughlin - Salazar 51, Shalala 42
https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000165-ef6b-d715-aded-effbe69b0000

Bendixen & Amandi - Shalala 46, Salazar 42
https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000165-ef6c-d9ba-a1ef-efefea440001

Yuck.   Even if it is a GOP internal those are bad numbers.   Why why WHY did we nominate Shalala???

The same reason why we nominated Cisneros, Wallace, and Gershon: they're well-connected rich people who got the establishment on their side.

Gershon was not the establishment candidate in NY-01, that was Kate Browning, a County Legislator who is on friendly terms with the local machine.

[Yellowhammer]

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/09/19/florida-2018-elections-miami-27th-828642

FL-27: Maria Elvira Salazar is leading by 7-9 points in an internal poll. Shalala is leading by only 4 in one of her own.This should be a safe pickup. It's probably one of the democrat's biggest recruitment failures of the cycle.

[Brittain33]

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/09/19/florida-2018-elections-miami-27th-828642

FL-27: Maria Elvira Salazar is leading by 7-9 points in an internal poll. Shalala is leading by only 4 in one of her own.This should be a safe pickup. It's probably one of the democrat's biggest recruitment failures of the cycle.

Ideally Dems can pick this up with a better candidate in 2020 if Shalala blows it.

[Beet]

FL Democrats would rather piss away a safe seat than nominate a Hispanic for something.

[Virginiá]

I kind of want Shalala to lose just to teach her, her friends and future candidates that stupid vanity candidacies, probably just so she can burnish her legacy, are incredibly reckless and unacceptable in a year when every seat needs to be contested as strongly as possible to check an increasingly unhinged presidency.

All of this reminds me of people like Menendez and his backers.

[KingSweden]

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/09/19/florida-2018-elections-miami-27th-828642

FL-27: Maria Elvira Salazar is leading by 7-9 points in an internal poll. Shalala is leading by only 4 in one of her own.This should be a safe pickup. It's probably one of the democrat's biggest recruitment failures of the cycle.

I’d be surprised if Shalalalalalalala loses but JFC what a bad nominee. Zero bench building.

[TheRocketRaccoon]

That’s the one Miami seat full of white liberals, so I’d be incredibly shocked if Salazar wins. If she does, oh well, good riddance to shalala. Salazar would be a one-term wonder with Trump on the ballot in 2020 against someone like JJR.

[Devout Centrist]

https://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/house-races/209327-national-republicans-dont-use-cantors-pollster

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[TheRocketRaccoon]

https://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/house-races/209327-national-republicans-dont-use-cantors-pollster

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I'm less concerned about McLaughlin, more about Shalala's piss poor internal.

[Strong Candidate]

NJ-02
Stockton University
535 Likely Voters

Jeff Van Drew (D) 55
Seth Grossman (R) 32

MOE +/- 4.2%

Van Drew has a 49-11 favorability rating, winning 17 percent of Republicans and leading with independents by 24 points, while Grossman, an overt racist, has an even 20-20 favorability split, likely due to Van Drew's decision to cost in the race rather than seriously attack his opponent.

Of more interest, Menendez trails Hugin by 10 points, 46-36.

[ON Progressive]

NJ-02
Stockton University
535 Likely Voters

Jeff Van Drew (D) 55
Seth Grossman (R) 32

Safe D.

[Florida Man for Crime]

I kind of want Shalala to lose just to teach her, her friends and future candidates that stupid vanity candidacies, probably just so she can burnish her legacy, are incredibly reckless and unacceptable in a year when every seat needs to be contested as strongly as possible to check an increasingly unhinged presidency.

All of this reminds me of people like Menendez and his backers.

I do too, except I really don't, because her actually losing would be incredibly reckless and unacceptable in a year when every seat needs to be contested as strongly as possible to check an increasingly unhinged presidency.

[Politician]

NJ-02
Stockton University
535 Likely Voters

Jeff Van Drew (D) 55
Seth Grossman (R) 32

MOE +/- 4.2%

Van Drew has a 49-11 favorability rating, winning 17 percent of Republicans and leading with independents by 24 points, while Grossman, an overt racist, has an even 20-20 favorability split, likely due to Van Drew's decision to cost in the race rather than seriously attack his opponent.

Of more interest, Menendez trails Hugin by 10 points, 46-36.

This race is Leaning R. Grossman will energize his working class base and combine that with strong performance in suburban Republican citadels to win. He can also tie Van Drew to Pelosi and MS-13.

/s

Safe D, obviously.

[BudgieForce]

Hopefully this means Menendez isnt dragging anybody down.

[Virginiá]

I kind of want Shalala to lose just to teach her, her friends and future candidates that stupid vanity candidacies, probably just so she can burnish her legacy, are incredibly reckless and unacceptable in a year when every seat needs to be contested as strongly as possible to check an increasingly unhinged presidency.

All of this reminds me of people like Menendez and his backers.

I do too, except I really don't, because her actually losing would be incredibly reckless and unacceptable in a year when every seat needs to be contested as strongly as possible to check an increasingly unhinged presidency.

Well there is a reason I said "kind of." Also, we're pretty much past the point where we can strongly contest this seat if she isn't going to run an actual campaign. There is only so much outside groups can do for her. The point of my post was that candidate recruitment is really important this cycle, and similar to Menendez, too many people got behind a weak candidate because of friends/favors/some misguided loyalty.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/09/19/florida-2018-elections-miami-27th-828642

FL-27:

McLaughlin - Salazar 51, Shalala 42
https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000165-ef6b-d715-aded-effbe69b0000

Bendixen & Amandi - Shalala 46, Salazar 42
https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000165-ef6c-d9ba-a1ef-efefea440001

Yuck.   Even if it is a GOP internal those are bad numbers.   Why why WHY did we nominate Shalala???

The same reason why we nominated Cisneros, Wallace, and Gershon: they're well-connected rich people who got the establishment on their side.

You were the biggest Shalala cheerleader on Atlas.  Also Gershon was not the establishment candidate in NY-1.

[Zaybay]

https://www.politico.com/story/2018/09/19/florida-2018-elections-miami-27th-828642

FL-27:

McLaughlin - Salazar 51, Shalala 42
https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000165-ef6b-d715-aded-effbe69b0000

Bendixen & Amandi - Shalala 46, Salazar 42
https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000165-ef6c-d9ba-a1ef-efefea440001

Yuck.   Even if it is a GOP internal those are bad numbers.   Why why WHY did we nominate Shalala???

The same reason why we nominated Cisneros, Wallace, and Gershon: they're well-connected rich people who got the establishment on their side.

You were literally the biggest supporter of Shalala on the forum while many, such as me, were cheering for Richardson.

And your reasoning doesnt make any sense; Wallace and Cisneros were upset victories over establishment choices, while Gershon wasnt even the establishment choice. The only thing the 4 share is being rich, which isnt the best evidence to use since many other Ds are also rich, and are doing rather well.

I still dont understand why people think Wallace is bad after one poll showing him down by 2, in July. Wait until the NYT polls it before deciding his fate.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

LOL Shalala. Tbh though, as long as we still win the house I could care less about her winning. Shes not worth it

[Antonio the Sixth]

Shalala is absolutely pathetic. I share Virginia's feelings 100%.

[Progressive Pessimist]

This is an interesting graphic. I knew the pundits way underestimated the wave throughout the summer of 2010, but I didn't remember that it went into September as well.

This graphic should be comforting, and it mostly is, but seeing more people in 2018 that think the country is headed in the right direction, even if it's still a small number in a time with a better economy, is still kind of depressing.

[IceSpear]

https://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/house-races/209327-national-republicans-dont-use-cantors-pollster

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LOL, this was the poll everyone was freaking out about? What a joke.

[Strong Candidate]

https://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/house-races/209327-national-republicans-dont-use-cantors-pollster

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I couldn't care less about McLaughlin, but Shalala also released an internal that only gave her a 4-point lead; it's clear this is legitimately close: https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000165-ef6c-d9ba-a1ef-efefea440001

[Zaybay]

https://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/house-races/209327-national-republicans-dont-use-cantors-pollster

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I couldn't care less about McLaughlin, but Shalala also released an internal that only gave her a 4-point lead; it's clear this is legitimately close: https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000165-ef6c-d9ba-a1ef-efefea440001

Internals are released for two reasons: To show a race is competative to direct more money, or to stave off the hope of funding for the other candidate.

There is no reason for Shalala to release an internal with her up by 4, unless you consider that, perhaps, she wants more funding for the race.