2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3

[Gustaf]

Note in particular that having a second decimal Place in a poll with less than 1 000 people is...odd.

For instance, Halleran's vote share of the number of respondends is 267.3774 individuals. Had it been 267 or 268 his vote share would be different. So this must have been weighted in what I presume was some pretty fishy way.

[IceSpear]

https://twitter.com/WendyRogersAZ/status/1046820860819099648

Is Invisible Tom the child of Invisible Obama and RINO Tom?

#InvisibleTomunder36.24

[Hindsight was 2020]

Wason Center (Va-10)
Wexton: 51
Comstock: 44
https://mobile.twitter.com/RTDSchapiro/status/1047789787913093120

[bilaps]

Just watching Morning Joe and Joe says that he doesn't beleive that's possible that Ds get house majority big seat gain and senate goes to Rs pickups, because people tend to vote down the ballot the same way. But it's actually highly possible because you have deep red states in senate and on the other hand you have a bunch of pickup opportunities in house in states that are trending blue like VA. Also, IL,CA,NJ all blue states or purple like NC

[IceSpear]

Wason Center (Va-10)
Wexton: 51
Comstock: 44
https://mobile.twitter.com/RTDSchapiro/status/1047789787913093120

Dems shouldn't be wasting a cent here. If the political environment alone can't topple Comstock then they're screwed six ways from Sunday regardless.

[TheRocketRaccoon]

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-me-pol-berkeley-la-times-poll-20181004-story.html

CA-22: Nunes 53, Janz 45

CA-50: Hunter 49, Campa-Najjar 47

CA-49: Levin 55, Harkey 41

CA-48: Rouda 48, Rohrabacher 48

CA-45: Porter 52, Walters 45

CA-39: Cisneros 49, Kim 48

CA-25: Hill 50, Knight 46

CA-10: Harder 50, Denham 45

[Landslide Lyndon]

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1047794412577837056

[Hindsight was 2020]

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1047794412577837056

Woof

[Gustaf]

Just watching Morning Joe and Joe says that he doesn't beleive that's possible that Ds get house majority big seat gain and senate goes to Rs pickups, because people tend to vote down the ballot the same way. But it's actually highly possible because you have deep red states in senate and on the other hand you have a bunch of pickup opportunities in house in states that are trending blue like VA. Also, IL,CA,NJ all blue states or purple like NC

Yeah, that's super dumb since the races don't overlap almost at all. Democrats could tsunami house seats across California, Pennsylvania, New Jersey and New York without it gaining them anything in the senate and conversely Republicans could outperform in Montana, North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana to comfortably hold the senate without it doing almost anything for them to hold the House.

[Gustaf]

Also, since I haven't been paying attention, what happened to Walters? Wasn't hers supposed to be one of the hardest to gain GOP seats in California?

[Brittain33]

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-me-pol-berkeley-la-times-poll-20181004-story.html

CA-22: Nunes 53, Janz 45

CA-50: Hunter 49, Campa-Najjar 47

CA-49: Levin 55, Harkey 41

CA-48: Rouda 48, Rohrabacher 48

CA-45: Porter 52, Walters 45

CA-39: Cisneros 49, Kim 48

CA-25: Hill 50, Knight 46

CA-10: Harder 50, Denham 45

Muh Kavanaugh R bump

[Technocracy Timmy]

Also, since I haven't been paying attention, what happened to Walters? Wasn't hers supposed to be one of the hardest to gain GOP seats in California?

Yeah I’m seriously blanking on why Walters is down 7 while Rohrabacher is tied.

God truly hates me

[bilaps]

Rohrabacher holding steady at tie while other Rs fall back is really interesting.

[IceSpear]

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-me-pol-berkeley-la-times-poll-20181004-story.html

CA-22: Nunes 53, Janz 45

CA-50: Hunter 49, Campa-Najjar 47

CA-49: Levin 55, Harkey 41

CA-48: Rouda 48, Rohrabacher 48

CA-45: Porter 52, Walters 45

CA-39: Cisneros 49, Kim 48

CA-25: Hill 50, Knight 46

CA-10: Harder 50, Denham 45

Muh Kavanaugh R bump

Haha, I'm not sure many people expected a Kavanaugh bump for the Republicans in suburban California.

[IceSpear]

Yeah, that's super dumb

Morning Joke in a nutshell.

[Politician]

Nunes is winning by less then Cramer? Color me skeptical. Anyone, just confirms what we already know: CA Reps are in big trouble.

http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-me-pol-berkeley-la-times-poll-20181004-story.html

CA-22: Nunes 53, Janz 45

CA-50: Hunter 49, Campa-Najjar 47

CA-49: Levin 55, Harkey 41

CA-48: Rouda 48, Rohrabacher 48

CA-45: Porter 52, Walters 45

CA-39: Cisneros 49, Kim 48

CA-25: Hill 50, Knight 46

CA-10: Harder 50, Denham 45

Muh Kavanaugh R bump

Haha, I'm not sure many people expected a Kavanaugh bump for the Republicans in suburban California.

Also the Senate is the chamber that actually deals with Supreme-Court related issues.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Also, since I haven't been paying attention, what happened to Walters? Wasn't hers supposed to be one of the hardest to gain GOP seats in California?

Yeah I’m seriously blanking on why Walters is down 7 while Rohrabacher is tied.

God truly hates me

Rohrabacher is much more entrenched and hasn't embraced Trump as much as Walters.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Also, since I haven't been paying attention, what happened to Walters? Wasn't hers supposed to be one of the hardest to gain GOP seats in California?

Yeah I’m seriously blanking on why Walters is down 7 while Rohrabacher is tied.

God truly hates me

Rohrabacher is much more entrenched and hasn't embraced Trump as much as Walters.

I think the article said Rohrabacher was over-performing with (already conservative) Vietnamese voters.

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/jon_m_rob/status/1047818174551547907

[ajc0918]

It's wild that DEMs picking up 6 seats in California is almost expected at this point.

[Gass3268]

If I had my own ratings, which I don't, I'd probably move CA-49 to Likely D and CA-45 to Lean D.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1047794412577837056

Personally surprised to see Cisneros back in the lead, perhaps Monmouth overestimated R support, perhaps this poll is skewed D, or perhaps CA has really shifted due to Kavanaugh? I dont know, but overall, great results for Ds.

[mencken]

Rohrabacher holding steady at tie while other Rs fall back is really interesting.

Flawless Beautiful, Unbeatable Titan, Defender of the Faith, King of Scotland Dana Rohrabacher will pulverize Pusillanimous Porsche Pinko Harley Rouda and force him to return to his pastime of firing his sick employees.

[mencken]

Also, since I haven't been paying attention, what happened to Walters? Wasn't hers supposed to be one of the hardest to gain GOP seats in California?

Only for those who forgot she represented Irvine. (I am mad that I sunk into conventional wisdom on this one)

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

CA-45 sample has Trump approval at 41% while CA-48 sample has Trump approval at 49%.

While CA-45 is to the left of CA-48, I don't think it's that much to the left of it. I'd imagine Porter's lead is a bit overstated while Rouda should be leading among the entire electorate.