2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3

[IceSpear]

USC/LA Times, Aug 22-Sep 24, 4161 registered voters including 2151 likely voters

Story at http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-usc-latimes-poll-20180926-story.html#, toplines will be posted later this morning.

Among likely voters: D 55, R 41

Many details in the story, including:

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26 points?! These suburban women are gonna give the rural racist white male hicks a burbstompin with their high heels they won't soon forget.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

We have inexplicably failed to run even a B-list candidate against Valadao thus far.

It is because no Democrats participate in the political process enough to actually vote in CA-21, much less run for office.

Actually, we have a top-shelf A-list potential candidate in Rudy Salas (who I suspect is [wisely] waiting until 2020 to run) and several other decent potential candidates (though none as strong as Salas would be) such as Henry Perea.  There are a variety of reasons why none of these folks have run, but I think Valadao is probably gonna lose once he faces a solid opponent in even a neutral year. 

[TheRocketRaccoon]

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1044936374309310464

[ON Progressive]

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1044938051989000194?s=19

Hopefully, Flawless Beautiful Campa-Najjar is ahead. I won’t count on it though. I’m thinking Hunter by 5.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

USC/LA Times, Aug 22-Sep 24, 4161 registered voters including 2151 likely voters

Story at http://www.latimes.com/politics/la-na-pol-usc-latimes-poll-20180926-story.html#, toplines will be posted later this morning.

Among likely voters: D 55, R 41

Many details in the story, including:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Blacks support Dems 94-4%. But Candace and Kanye told me that there was a major black exodus from the DEMONcrats...

[Florida Man for Crime]

Actually, we have a top-shelf A-list potential candidate in Rudy Salas (who I suspect is [wisely] waiting until 2020 to run) and several other decent potential candidates (though none as strong as Salas would be) such as Henry Perea.  There are a variety of reasons why none of these folks have run, but I think Valadao is probably gonna lose once he faces a solid opponent in even a neutral year. 

I'd say it takes a neutral Presidential year in particular, not just a neutral year, for the reason of higher Latino turnout in Presidential years. Yes, 2020 is the best shot at Valadao.

[2016]

I think they might have already been posted but here they are...

Survey USA Polls from CA

CA-21
David Valadao (R) 50
T. J. Cox (D) 39
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=8c4f7fef-0470-425f-a21f-e828438aac5e
Trump has a positive JA in that District 48-43

CA-16
Jim Costa (D) 51
Elizabeth Heng (R) 40
http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=ae720a52-3b57-45b8-a4be-a487a9040d5b
Trumps JA is 39-55 in that District.

And one SUSA Poll from MN-2

Craig (D) 48
Lewis (R) 45
https://kstp.com/kstpImages/repository/cs/files/PollPrint.pdf

[GeorgiaModerate]

YouGov, Sep. 23-25, 1238 registered voters

D: 46 (+1)
R: 38 (-3)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Hill.TV American Barometer Survey, Sep. 21-22, 1000 RV

D: 44 (+3)
R: 36 (nc)

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico, Sep. 20-23, 1966 registered voters

D:43 (nc)
R: 35 (-3)

That's three polls today at D+8...unusual agreement.

[ON Progressive]

DE-AL (University of Delaware):

Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-inc) 58
Scott Walker (R, not related to that Scott Walker) 28

https://www.cpc.udel.edu/content-sub-site/Documents/CPC%20poll%209-25-18%20FINAL%20RELEASE.pdf

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

DE-AL (University of Delaware)

Lisa Blunt Rochester (D-inc) 58
Scott Walker (R, not related to that Scott Walker) 28

https://www.cpc.udel.edu/content-sub-site/Documents/CPC%20poll%209-25-18%20FINAL%20RELEASE.pdf

I just almost yelled who tf polled Delaware out loud now.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/pewresearch/status/1045046861839695872

[Devils30]

If the white vote is actually GOP by 3-5% like these polls have, it will be an absolute tsunami

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Whew. That white college grad margin...

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/pewresearch/status/1045046861839695872

Their previous poll (July 30-Aug 12) was D+7, 46/39.

Something in most of the recent polls: the number of undecided voters is shrinking significantly.  More people are making up their minds, and predominantly toward the Democrats.

[Gass3268]

Their previous poll (July 30-Aug 12) was D+7, 46/39.

Something in most of the recent polls: the number of undecided voters is shrinking significantly.  More people are making up their minds, and predominantly toward the Democrats.

Reminds me of almost all of the special elections (exepct GA-06).

[Zaybay]

Their previous poll (July 30-Aug 12) was D+7, 46/39.

Something in most of the recent polls: the number of undecided voters is shrinking significantly.  More people are making up their minds, and predominantly toward the Democrats.

Reminds me of almost all of the special elections (exepct GA-06).

That was expected, this is what happens every wave year, meaning the current GCB is likely to get higher for the Dems, not lower, barring any October surprises.

[Nyvin]

Monmouth poll for CA-50 coming out tomorrow.  That'll be interesting if the dates are after the indictment.

[Virginiá]

How is it possible for Pew's poll to have Democrats up 58 - 39 with white college grads, but then only 57 - 38 with college graduates of all races? Non-white college grads are significantly more Democratic than white college grads, even if they are slightly less Democratic than non-white non-college voters.

Shouldn't the total college grads (white/non-white) be > white college grad %?

[Florida Man for Crime]

How is it possible for Pew's poll to have Democrats up 58 - 39 with white college grads, but then only 57 - 38 with college graduates of all races? Non-white college grads are significantly more Democratic than white college grads, even if they are slightly less Democratic than non-white non-college voters.

Shouldn't the total college grads (white/non-white) be > white college grad %?

White college grads also includes postgrads, whereas the regular college grad excludes postgrads (that is another category in that crosstab).

[GeorgiaModerate]

For those that think because the Republicans won the 2010 and 2014 midterms, the same will necessarily be true in 2018:

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1045049412731523072

[ON Progressive]

How is it possible for Pew's poll to have Democrats up 58 - 39 with white college grads, but then only 57 - 38 with college graduates of all races? Non-white college grads are significantly more Democratic than white college grads, even if they are slightly less Democratic than non-white non-college voters.

Shouldn't the total college grads (white/non-white) be > white college grad %?

White college grads also includes postgrads, whereas the regular college grad excludes postgrads (that is another category in that crosstab).

That would explain it. Postgrads are quite a Democratic group, and have been for a while. Does anyone know why postgrads have always been significantly more Democratic than "normal" college educated folks (like those with bachelor degrees)?

[Florida Man for Crime]

How is it possible for Pew's poll to have Democrats up 58 - 39 with white college grads, but then only 57 - 38 with college graduates of all races? Non-white college grads are significantly more Democratic than white college grads, even if they are slightly less Democratic than non-white non-college voters.

Shouldn't the total college grads (white/non-white) be > white college grad %?

White college grads also includes postgrads, whereas the regular college grad excludes postgrads (that is another category in that crosstab).

That would explain it. Postgrads are quite a Democratic group, and have been for a while. Does anyone know why postgrads have always been significantly more Democratic than "normal" college educated folks (like those with bachelor degrees)?

Quick facetious one-liner answer - because they are smarter than regular college grads

Real answer - because the same factors that make college-educated voters more likely to be Democratic also make them more likely to be Democratic, such as being more likely than 4 year college grads to have jobs as "knowledge-worker professionals" which is associated with voting Dem.

[Virginiá]

Ohhhhhhh! Fair enough. Thank you!