2018 Congressional Generic Ballot and House Polls Megathread - Part 3

[Devout Centrist]

Lmao! Okay Icy, why are you so on edge today?

This reply is strange. I don't see what's funny about it or why you think I'm "on edge." I was just responding to your comment about my batting average with objective facts. Projection I guess?

Okay, let me explain:

I make a gentle jibe about your past predictions. You respond by dumping a list of your correct predictions (some of which haven't even come to pass yet!) as evidence that I'm wrong. That's pretty damn weird, my friend.

Look, my point is you're a smug prick. You have absolutely no humility nor do you seem to understand the concept of reflecting on your past mistakes. The last time you ever expressed any humility was back when Doug Jones won in Alabama, and that was after MONTHS of relentless arrogance and bragging that you would be vindicated in the end. You then wrote an apology...then you didn't change your behavior at all.

I don't know exactly what caused you to become some unhinged lunatic, but it's evidently infected your entire mindset. People respond to loss and defeat in different ways, and I can understand why the events of 2016 would make you take pause when it comes to partisan cheerleading. But this doesn't absolve you of responsibility and it certainly doesn't give you a free pass to be an ego driven maniac.

[IceSpear]

Lmao! Okay Icy, why are you so on edge today?

This reply is strange. I don't see what's funny about it or why you think I'm "on edge." I was just responding to your comment about my batting average with objective facts. Projection I guess?

Okay, let me explain:

I make a gentle jibe about your past predictions. You respond by dumping a list of your correct predictions (some of which haven't even come to pass yet!) as evidence that I'm wrong. That's pretty damn weird, my friend.

Look, my point is you're a smug prick. You have absolutely no humility nor do you seem to understand the concept of reflecting on your past mistakes. The last time you ever expressed any humility was back when Doug Jones won in Alabama, and that was after MONTHS of relentless arrogance and bragging that you would be vindicated in the end. You then wrote an apology...then you didn't change your behavior at all.

I don't know exactly what caused you to become some unhinged lunatic, but it's evidently infected your entire mindset. People respond to loss and defeat in different ways, and I can understand why the events of 2016 would make you take pause when it comes to partisan cheerleading. But this doesn't absolve you of responsibility and it certainly doesn't give you a free pass to be an ego driven maniac.

So yes...projection. Along with a hefty dose of irony. Thanks for clearing it up.

By the way, while we're on the topic of reflecting on past mistakes, how about we address the record of certain people that always delusionally believe Dems will win every remotely competitive (or potentially even non competitive) race? How has that worked out for you guys? Perhaps we can ask Gov-elect David Garcia. Something tells me he'll have a lot of time to answer fan mail after November 6th.

[MillennialModerate]

If the Democrats take the House, I don't see how it can be called anything other than a wave. That probably means they're winning the House PV by at least 6%, which is more than Republicans won by in 2014, and around what they won by in 2010. If R+2 is a bad result in the Senate, then I guess 2016 was a terrible year for Republicans, since their map was not nearly as tough as the map is for the Democrats this year. This class of Senate races is definitely a ticking time bomb for the Democrats, and the fact that Democrats might even break even or gain a seat is an enormous accomplishment.

I get what you’re saying but there is zero and I repeat ZERO a chance the Dems GAIN in the Senate

And the house is now closer to Tossup than Lean D

[Very Legal & Very Cool]

This is what the voters deserve. Oh well. I hope hating black people kneeling was worth it for people.

Doesn’t affect me either way

Nice being a middle class white person in America, huh. Nothing affects us until it does.

[IceSpear]

This is what the voters deserve. Oh well. I hope hating black people kneeling was worth it for people.

Doesn’t affect me either way

Nice being a middle class white person in America, huh. Nothing affects us until it does.

Hey, don't blame him. He's doing his part by voting. That's more than half of the lazy morons in this country will do.

[2016]

If the Democrats take the House, I don't see how it can be called anything other than a wave. That probably means they're winning the House PV by at least 6%, which is more than Republicans won by in 2014, and around what they won by in 2010. If R+2 is a bad result in the Senate, then I guess 2016 was a terrible year for Republicans, since their map was not nearly as tough as the map is for the Democrats this year. This class of Senate races is definitely a ticking time bomb for the Democrats, and the fact that Democrats might even break even or gain a seat is an enormous accomplishment.

I get what you’re saying but there is zero and I repeat ZERO a chance the Dems GAIN in the Senate

And the house is now closer to Tossup than Lean D

People said the exact same thing about this class in 2012. I certainly wouldn't bet on it, but saying there's zero chance is absurd.

Taking the Fundamentals of the States as well as the National Political Environment into Account the most likely Senate Scenario is that it stays the same: Democrats win AZ, NV and Republicans win ND, MO. Both Parties hold the rest of their own Seats.
In ND the State Fundamentals working against Heitkamp more so in a MidTerm compared to a Presidential Year. McCaskill in MO is very unpopular. Her JA is even worse compared to Heitkamp.

[Comrade Funk]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/survey-of-battleground-house-districts-shows-democrats-with-narrow-edge/2018/10/07/f45e13f2-c812-11e8-b1ed-1d2d65b86d0c_story.html?noredirect=on&utm_term=.a7924d3e910e

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[Hindsight was 2020]

If the Democrats take the House, I don't see how it can be called anything other than a wave. That probably means they're winning the House PV by at least 6%, which is more than Republicans won by in 2014, and around what they won by in 2010. If R+2 is a bad result in the Senate, then I guess 2016 was a terrible year for Republicans, since their map was not nearly as tough as the map is for the Democrats this year. This class of Senate races is definitely a ticking time bomb for the Democrats, and the fact that Democrats might even break even or gain a seat is an enormous accomplishment.

I get what you’re saying but there is zero and I repeat ZERO a chance the Dems GAIN in the Senate

And the house is now closer to Tossup than Lean D

People said the exact same thing about this class in 2012. I certainly wouldn't bet on it, but saying there's zero chance is absurd.

Taking the Fundamentals of the States as well as the National Political Environment into Account the most likely Senate Scenario is that it stays the same: Democrats win AZ, NV and Republicans win ND, MO. Both Parties hold the rest of their own Seats.
In ND the State Fundamentals working against Heitkamp more so in a MidTerm compared to a Presidential Year. McCaskill in MO is very unpopular. Her JA is even worse compared to Heitkamp.

That’s actually a shockingly reasonable take from you and I kinda agree but I’m not ready to beat against McCaskill yet

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

I'm not exactly sure how to interpret that wapo poll. It seems like a fairly good result for dems?

Also worth noting that this poll was done over a few weeks, but it also has a pretty large sample.

[2016]

If the Democrats take the House, I don't see how it can be called anything other than a wave. That probably means they're winning the House PV by at least 6%, which is more than Republicans won by in 2014, and around what they won by in 2010. If R+2 is a bad result in the Senate, then I guess 2016 was a terrible year for Republicans, since their map was not nearly as tough as the map is for the Democrats this year. This class of Senate races is definitely a ticking time bomb for the Democrats, and the fact that Democrats might even break even or gain a seat is an enormous accomplishment.

A Wave is called when D's net 60+ Seats in the House like R's did in 2010 or net 8+ Seats in the Senate like 2014 and I doubt that this is going to happen.

[Hindsight was 2020]

I'm not exactly sure how to interpret that wapo poll. It seems like a fairly good result for dems?

Also worth noting that this poll was done over a few weeks, but it also has a pretty large sample.

Yeah if Dems are polling 50/50 in those 48 seats Trump won then that’s in line with a 30-40 seat gain

[2016]

No way Republicans losing White College Graduate Women by 62-35. Hilarious from WaPo!

[Brittain33]

No way Republicans losing White College Graduate Women by 62-35. Hilarious from WaPo!

Yeah, goodness, they're Trump's biggest fans, and they just love Kavanaugh...

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

No way Republicans losing White College Graduate Women by 62-35. Hilarious from WaPo!

It's worth noting that this poll polls almost no southern districts. White college graduate women outside the south are very dem

[Brittain33]

I get what you’re saying but there is zero and I repeat ZERO a chance the Dems GAIN in the Senate

Hey, can we get that guy who had to keep looking up the definition of "hyperbole" over here for a moment?

[TyNY2018]

NC-09 (Civitas/SurveyUSA)

MCready - 45 (+4)
Harris - 41

556 LV, +/- 4.7%, 10/2-10/4

Last Civitas/SurveyUSA poll, done from 7/5-7/8, had MCready leading by 7 (43-36).

[KingSweden]

I get what you’re saying but there is zero and I repeat ZERO a chance the Dems GAIN in the Senate

Hey, can we get that guy who had to keep looking up the definition of "hyperbole" over here for a moment?

Wasn’t he tempbanned

[TheRocketRaccoon]

https://chicago.suntimes.com/politics/democrats-poll-shows-sean-casten-ahead-peter-roskam-5-points/

IL-6 Garin-Hart-Yang (Casten internal): Casten (D) 49, Roskam (R-inc) 44

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

No way Republicans losing White College Graduate Women by 62-35. Hilarious from WaPo!

It's worth noting that this poll polls almost no southern districts. White college graduate women outside the south are very dem

I could 18 districts in Southern (i.e. former Confederate) states, or 29%.  Seems about right to me me.

[TheRocketRaccoon]

https://twitter.com/WCIA3Mark/status/1049304303511453696

https://www.wcia.com/election/ylehq_illinoishomepage/poll-davis-leads-londrigan-49-48/1507143696

[here2view]

I still think Democrats are in decent shape. The generic ballot as of today gives them around a 7% lead (6.6% on RCP and 7.8% on 538.) That should be enough to take the House. If nothing else significant changes I see them picking up around 30 seats, give or take a few. If you look at my previous posts on this my opinion has always been in line with this gain.

The Senate is a different story - I think right now they gain Nevada and Arizona, and then lose North Dakota and at least one of Missouri or Indiana. I don't see Republicans having a net gain of more than one Senate seat though.

Basically it comes down to:

1.) How many seats do Democrats pick up that puts them over the 218 threshold in the House? (Again, it's not certain they pick up the house but it's more probable than not. And whatever extra gain they make can insulate the House from GOP takeover in 2020, and give Democrats more wiggle room for votes until then)

2.) How well they mitigate loses in the Senate based on the horrendous map? If there's no change or even if we lose one seat, that's ok. I don't see a feasible path for Democrats to take the Senate to be honest.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Apparently Gil Cisneros is up a point over Kim in a new poll. Seems to have rebounded

[Person Man]

House numbers still seem good...

[TyNY2018]

Apparently Gil Cisneros is up a point over Kim in a new poll. Seems to have rebounded

I think you're referring to the Berkeley IGS poll. That was conducted from 9/16-9/23. Nothing new.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

So as it appears now, there is no Kavanaugh bump for the GOP in the house.