2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please

[Gass3268]

Democrats are going to pick up almost half of the seats they need just in the Northeast.

[Gass3268]

The head of Monmouth Polling on the effects of going to a likely voter screen:

https://twitter.com/PollsterPatrick/status/1012006123380117520

[Gass3268]

Democrats are going to pick up almost half of the seats they need just in the Northeast.

Which is why this House map this year is just so...interesting. PA, NY, NJ, MN, VA, FL, and CA have the bulk of competitive seats this year, and they are all safe dem states or PA and FL which are tossup states at worst.

Totally different from the senate map where almost all the key races are deep in Trump Territory.

Yup and other than FL, Democrats will dominate all of the statewide races in those states.

[Gass3268]

WA-03: Beutler +5

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1012073209854939136

Improvement!

[Gass3268]

If they move as fast on this as I assume McConnell will, the new Justice will be approved by September and forgotten by November, other than pissed off Liberals.

[Gass3268]

Quinnipiac

Democrats 50%
Republicans 41%

Would you like to see Congress be a check on President Trump, or not?

Yes 71%
No 20%

More motivated to vote than usual, less motivated, or are you just as motivated as usual (More-Less-Same)?

Democrats 58-5-38
Republicans 41-0-58

Source

[Gass3268]

Quinnipiac

Democrats 50%
Republicans 41%

For comparison, their previous poll (June 14-17) was D 49, R 43.

Should also note that that they switched the question from who do you want to see control the Congress, to who you will vote for.

[Gass3268]

Some of these splits are nuts:

Men R+8
Women D+25

Whites with College Degree D+13
Whites with no College Degree R+14

Whites D/R+0
Blacks D+67
Hispanics D+25

Independents D+14

18-34 D+26
35-49 D+5
50-64 D+4
65+ D+11

[Gass3268]

Some of these splits are nuts:

Men R+8
Women D+25

Whites with College Degree D+13
Whites with no College Degree R+14

Whites D/R+0
Blacks D+67
Hispanics D+25

Independents D+14

18-34 D+26
35-49 D+5
50-64 D+4
65+ D+11

That is unexpected

The senior vote has been really inconsistent when looking across different polls.

[Gass3268]

Quinnipiac

Democrats 50%
Republicans 41%

Would you like to see Congress be a check on President Trump, or not?

Yes 71%
No 20%

More motivated to vote than usual, less motivated, or are you just as motivated as usual (More-Less-Same)?

Democrats 58-5-38
Republicans 41-0-58

Source

Holy hell, that enthusiasm gap.

The GOP is going to defecate themselves when pollsters begin to make the shift to LV.

It will depend on the pollster, some will have it as a requirement that in order to get through their LV screen you would have had to have voted in 2014.

[Gass3268]

Lol, Survey Monkey (D- 538 pollster)

[Gass3268]

What does WAPO consider a "battleground"?

Cook Political Report defined Toss Up and Lean Districts. So no PA-05 or PA-06 or NJ-02.

[Gass3268]

Emerson (Change from January):

Democrats 49% (+4)
Repubilcans 42% (+2)

Source

[Gass3268]

CA-49 - https://mikelevin.org/democrat-mike-levin-has-initial-edge-in-49th-congressional-district-poll/

Levin internal:

Levin (D) - 44
Harkey (R) - 41

A lead inside the margin of error in a district Clinton won by 8 points and many national forecasters have as "Lean D" - found in a democratic internal.

A poll showing dems picking up Issa's seat? Terrible news for Democrats./s

This is a give me money poll.

[Gass3268]

New Cook Ratings:



I really don't get NY-25.

[Gass3268]

Democrats could pick up 4 seats in New Jersey.

[Gass3268]

NC-09 (Civitas): McCready +7

https://twitter.com/jimmorrill/status/1016802651705659392

[Gass3268]

Republicans are scared about TX-07 and TX-32, feel better about TX-23:

https://twitter.com/TexasTribAbby/status/1018851101242781696

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1018866236678115329

[Gass3268]

IA-03 (Axne internal from ALG Research):

Axne (D) 45
Young (R-inc) 41

GCB: Dems lead 47-38

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000164-a0ef-d844-adf5-e5ef30a40001

Holy wow, that blindsided me. I expected Young to have a comfy lead.

Well, it's an Axne internal, and the usual rule of thumb for internals is to subtract 5 points from the net difference.  But that still indicates a very close race.

Five points is a bit dramatic, and even in that case a one point lead is not exactly comfy.

Oh, I'm not disagreeing with you. Even with the adjustment it's a surprise, and if this poll is a good indicator then it's anybody's race.

I'm not predicting it, but it would not shock me if Democrats have 3 of the 4 Congressional seats, the Governorship, and 1-2 of the state legislative chambers. There has been a bit of a counter response to Trump in the state.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1018857860527280130

Uh, this is big.

Good ...flipping the Governorship will allow the Dems to steal McCains Senate seat.

I think McCain would resign before Ducey got sworn in, even considering Arizona's same-party appointment laws.

Even if we got a dem Gubna though, wouldn't they have to appoint a Republican if McCain's seat opens up?

Yes, Republican Party would get to pick 3 choices and the Governor would get to pick from that list. Personally, this is my favorite way for Senatorial replacements.

[Gass3268]

Rohrabacher is losing under all models:

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1019190073986813953

[Gass3268]

Morning Consult/Politico, July 13-14, 1878 RV

D 45 (+3)
R 37 (nc)

The 538 average is now at D+9.4 (48.5-39.1).  The gap was last this high a couple of times in March.  The last time it was higher was in mid-January.

We are currently closer to the December highs than the May lows.

[Gass3268]

The weekly trackers.


Reuters/Ipsos: D+15 to D+10
Morning Consult: D+5 to D+8
Yougov: D+4 to D+8
Rasmussen: D+8 to D+5

These are becoming a wash every week.

[Gass3268]

That Colorado number is brutal for Coffman. A number like that might even put CO-03 in play.