2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please

[IceSpear]

Scott Taylor sure is acting agitated for a "safe" incumbent.

The same logic could apply to Atlas posters so certain of the blue wave that they feel the overwhelming need to thoroughly dissect the posts of known and admitted trolls every time they barf out some low effort bait.

You guys know you aren't going to convince them, so it sure seems like you're trying to convince yourselves. Just like Scott Taylor furiously typing to VA Dem hacks on Twitter that he's really super uber safe in November, lol.

[Hindsight was 2020]

So Washington Post did a poll and their CGB is D+10 47-37 https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/polling/washington-postschar-school-june-27july-2/2018/07/06/a6e8ed06-8111-11e8-a63f-7b5d2aba7ac5_page.html

[ON Progressive]

WaPo/Schar - Dems lead 47-37 nationwide, 49-37 in battlegrounds

http://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/page/national/washington-post-schar-school-poll-us-and-congressional-battlegrounds/2313/

[ajc0918]

WaPo/Schar - Dems lead 47-37 nationwide, 49-37 in battlegrounds

http://apps.washingtonpost.com/g/page/national/washington-post-schar-school-poll-us-and-congressional-battlegrounds/2313/

Dang... +12 in Battleground Seats is wild.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

What does WAPO consider a "battleground"?

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

What does WAPO consider a "battleground"?

Watch it be safe Dem seats like PA-05.

[Gass3268]

What does WAPO consider a "battleground"?

Cook Political Report defined Toss Up and Lean Districts. So no PA-05 or PA-06 or NJ-02.

[wesmoorenerd]

What does WAPO consider a "battleground"?

Cook Political Report defined Toss Up and Lean Districts. So no PA-05 or PA-06 or NJ-02.

Democrats up 12 in tossup/lean races?

N U T

[GeorgiaModerate]

The 538 GCB average is now at D+8.4 (46.8-38.4), which is the largest gap since early April, when it was 8.6 for a few days.

[Brittain33]

The 538 GCB average is now at D+8.4 (46.8-38.4), which is the largest gap since early April, when it was 8.6 for a few days.

Looking forward to it tightening inevitably and the hot takes crediting the tax cut.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

The 538 GCB average is now at D+8.4 (46.8-38.4), which is the largest gap since early April, when it was 8.6 for a few days.

Looking forward to it tightening inevitably and the hot takes crediting the tax cut.

Expect a SCOTUS bump for the GOP soon 

[ON Progressive]

The 538 GCB average is now at D+8.4 (46.8-38.4), which is the largest gap since early April, when it was 8.6 for a few days.

Looking forward to it tightening inevitably and the hot takes crediting the tax cut.

Expect a SCOTUS bump for the GOP soon 

LOL. 57% of Americans can't even name a single SCOTUS justice, and less than 1% can name all nine (source: https://static.c-span.org/assets/documents/scotusSurvey/CSPAN%20PSB%20Supreme%20Court%20Survey%20COMPREHENSIVE%20AGENDA%20sent%2003%2013%2017.pdf).

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

"tHe MaNUfacTurEd ImMigrAnT SepArAtIOn sToRy HurT thE DEmoCraTs!"

  -Fox News, Newsweek, Breitbart, Daily Caller, etc. etc.

[GeorgiaModerate]

"tHe MaNUfacTurEd ImMigrAnT SepArAtIOn sToRy HurT thE DEmoCraTs!"

  -Fox News, Newsweek, Breitbart, Daily Caller, etc. etc.

They're manufacturing immigrants now?  Isn't this how the Clone Wars started?

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

"tHe MaNUfacTurEd ImMigrAnT SepArAtIOn sToRy HurT thE DEmoCraTs!"

  -Fox News, Newsweek, Breitbart, Daily Caller, etc. etc.

They're manufacturing immigrants now?  Isn't this how the Clone Wars started?

You know what I mean.

[GeorgiaModerate]

"tHe MaNUfacTurEd ImMigrAnT SepArAtIOn sToRy HurT thE DEmoCraTs!"

  -Fox News, Newsweek, Breitbart, Daily Caller, etc. etc.

They're manufacturing immigrants now?  Isn't this how the Clone Wars started?

You know what I mean.

I know, I just have a weakness for wordplay.

[Gass3268]

Emerson (Change from January):

Democrats 49% (+4)
Repubilcans 42% (+2)

Source

[LimoLiberal]

CA-49 - https://mikelevin.org/democrat-mike-levin-has-initial-edge-in-49th-congressional-district-poll/

Levin internal:

Levin (D) - 44
Harkey (R) - 41

A lead inside the margin of error in a district Clinton won by 8 points and many national forecasters have as "Lean D" - found in a democratic internal.

[BudgieForce]

CA-49 - https://mikelevin.org/democrat-mike-levin-has-initial-edge-in-49th-congressional-district-poll/

Levin internal:

Levin (D) - 44
Harkey (R) - 41

A lead inside the margin of error in a district Clinton won by 8 points and many national forecasters have as "Lean D" - found in a democratic internal.

A poll showing dems picking up Issa's seat? Terrible news for Democrats./s

[UncleSam]

CA-49 - https://mikelevin.org/democrat-mike-levin-has-initial-edge-in-49th-congressional-district-poll/

Levin internal:

Levin (D) - 44
Harkey (R) - 41

A lead inside the margin of error in a district Clinton won by 8 points and many national forecasters have as "Lean D" - found in a democratic internal.

A poll showing dems picking up Issa's seat? Terrible news for Democrats./s

It’s not terrible, but it’s not exactly good when Issa’s seat is within the MOE on your own internal poll. Issa’s seat should be, in theory, among the easiest pickups in the country for Democrats.

[Gass3268]

CA-49 - https://mikelevin.org/democrat-mike-levin-has-initial-edge-in-49th-congressional-district-poll/

Levin internal:

Levin (D) - 44
Harkey (R) - 41

A lead inside the margin of error in a district Clinton won by 8 points and many national forecasters have as "Lean D" - found in a democratic internal.

A poll showing dems picking up Issa's seat? Terrible news for Democrats./s

This is a give me money poll.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

CA-49 - https://mikelevin.org/democrat-mike-levin-has-initial-edge-in-49th-congressional-district-poll/

Levin internal:

Levin (D) - 44
Harkey (R) - 41

A lead inside the margin of error in a district Clinton won by 8 points and many national forecasters have as "Lean D" - found in a democratic internal.

A poll showing dems picking up Issa's seat? Terrible news for Democrats./s

It’s not terrible, but it’s not exactly good when Issa’s seat is within the MOE on your own internal poll. Issa’s seat should be, in theory, among the easiest pickups in the country for Democrats.

[BudgieForce]

CA-49 - https://mikelevin.org/democrat-mike-levin-has-initial-edge-in-49th-congressional-district-poll/

Levin internal:

Levin (D) - 44
Harkey (R) - 41

A lead inside the margin of error in a district Clinton won by 8 points and many national forecasters have as "Lean D" - found in a democratic internal.

A poll showing dems picking up Issa's seat? Terrible news for Democrats./s

It’s not terrible, but it’s not exactly good when Issa’s seat is within the MOE on your own internal poll. Issa’s seat should be, in theory, among the easiest pickups in the country for Democrats.

Its an R+1 district in a state democrats have supposedly maxed out support in. I don't think its a bad result all things considered.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

CA-49 - https://mikelevin.org/democrat-mike-levin-has-initial-edge-in-49th-congressional-district-poll/

Levin internal:

Levin (D) - 44
Harkey (R) - 41

A lead inside the margin of error in a district Clinton won by 8 points and many national forecasters have as "Lean D" - found in a democratic internal.

A poll showing dems picking up Issa's seat? Terrible news for Democrats./s

It’s not terrible, but it’s not exactly good when Issa’s seat is within the MOE on your own internal poll. Issa’s seat should be, in theory, among the easiest pickups in the country for Democrats.

In theory.

In practice, CA-49 has a decent amount of low-turnout Latinos which is an issue for democrats in a midterm.

You'll find out that FL-27, a +16 Hillary open seat, will be much closer in 2018 too, because of the large Cuban population.

I have doubts that dems pick up more than 1 seat in Texas and 4 seats in California... they will have much more success in the tristate area (NJ/PA/NY) & the midwest (MN, IL, IA).

I have no idea why seats like IA-01 is not Lean D when pundits consider CA-49 Lean D, but whatever. Polling has indicated dems doing better in seats like IA-01, Tenney's seat, etc. but all of these are considered Tossup for god knows why.

[GeorgiaModerate]

UT-02: Salt Lake Tribune, June 11-18, 147 (lol) registered voters

Stewart (R) 48
Ghobani (D) 24
Others 14  (presumably UUP candidate)