2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please

[Gass3268]

Some of these splits are nuts:

Men R+8
Women D+25

Whites with College Degree D+13
Whites with no College Degree R+14

Whites D/R+0
Blacks D+67
Hispanics D+25

Independents D+14

18-34 D+26
35-49 D+5
50-64 D+4
65+ D+11

That is unexpected

The senior vote has been really inconsistent when looking across different polls.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Some of these splits are nuts:

Men R+8
Women D+25

Whites with College Degree D+13
Whites with no College Degree R+14

Whites D/R+0
Blacks D+67
Hispanics D+25

Independents D+14

18-34 D+26
35-49 D+5
50-64 D+4
65+ D+11

That is unexpected

I know a number of people in my age group (60's) whose politics have moved at least a little to the left in recent years (although some of them were pretty far right to start with).  I suspect that this is because many of them are either on Social Security/Medicare or about to be, or have someone close to them who is. 

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Quinnipiac

Democrats 50%
Republicans 41%

Would you like to see Congress be a check on President Trump, or not?

Yes 71%
No 20%

More motivated to vote than usual, less motivated, or are you just as motivated as usual (More-Less-Same)?

Democrats 58-5-38
Republicans 41-0-58

Source

Holy hell, that enthusiasm gap.

The GOP is going to defecate themselves when pollsters begin to make the shift to LV.

[Gass3268]

Quinnipiac

Democrats 50%
Republicans 41%

Would you like to see Congress be a check on President Trump, or not?

Yes 71%
No 20%

More motivated to vote than usual, less motivated, or are you just as motivated as usual (More-Less-Same)?

Democrats 58-5-38
Republicans 41-0-58

Source

Holy hell, that enthusiasm gap.

The GOP is going to defecate themselves when pollsters begin to make the shift to LV.

It will depend on the pollster, some will have it as a requirement that in order to get through their LV screen you would have had to have voted in 2014.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Quinnipiac

Democrats 50%
Republicans 41%

Would you like to see Congress be a check on President Trump, or not?

Yes 71%
No 20%

More motivated to vote than usual, less motivated, or are you just as motivated as usual (More-Less-Same)?

Democrats 58-5-38
Republicans 41-0-58

Source

Holy hell, that enthusiasm gap.

The GOP is going to defecate themselves when pollsters begin to make the shift to LV.

It will depend on the pollster, some will have it as a requirement that in order to get through their LV screen you would have had to have voted in 2014.

Doesn't really take away the purpose of my post.

[GeorgiaModerate]

I've always wondered: what's wrong with asking the respondent how likely they are to vote on the 5-point scale?  If the result is 5, they're likely; if less than 4, they're not; exactly 4 I could go either way on (maybe then you include other factors).  I think PPP does something like this.

[wesmoorenerd]

Some of these splits are nuts:

Men R+8
Women D+25

Whites with College Degree D+13
Whites with no College Degree R+14

Whites D/R+0
Blacks D+67
Hispanics D+25

Independents D+14

18-34 D+26
35-49 D+5
50-64 D+4
65+ D+11

Whites breaking evenly for D/R? That's INSANE. Whites voted for Trump by 21 points in 2016! Women and young people killing it, as usual.

[American2020]

Ipsos

Democrats: 45%
Republicans: 35%

http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/TM1212Y17/type/smallest/filters/PD1:1/dates/20180301-20180628/collapsed/true

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos

Democrats: 45%
Republicans: 35%

http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/TM1212Y17/type/smallest/filters/PD1:1/dates/20180301-20180628/collapsed/true

I posted that one on Friday.

[BudgieForce]

Ipsos

Democrats: 45%
Republicans: 35%

http://polling.reuters.com/#!response/TM1212Y17/type/smallest/filters/PD1:1/dates/20180301-20180628/collapsed/true

I posted that one on Friday.

Oddly just entered into 538 today.

[BudgieForce]

IBD/TIPP:

Democrats - 48%(+1)
Republicans - 40%(=)

https://www.investors.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/IBDTIPP_2018_07.pdf

[Landslide Lyndon]

IBD/TIPP:

Democrats - 48%(+1)
Republicans - 40%(=)

https://www.investors.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/IBDTIPP_2018_07.pdf

Red wave incoming.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

IBD/TIPP:

Democrats - 48%(+1)
Republicans - 40%(=)

https://www.investors.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/IBDTIPP_2018_07.pdf

Republicans and Dems tied for support in the Midwest and the South

Suburbs going to Democrats 51-38%

[KingSweden]

IBD/TIPP:

Democrats - 48%(+1)
Republicans - 40%(=)

https://www.investors.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/IBDTIPP_2018_07.pdf

Republicans and Dems tied for support in the Midwest and the South

Suburbs going to Democrats 51-38%

RIP Mike Coffman in that case

[Kingpoleon]

IBD/TIPP:

Democrats - 48%(+1)
Republicans - 40%(=)

https://www.investors.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/07/IBDTIPP_2018_07.pdf

Red wave incoming.

Remember when Clinton winning by seven was “junk polling” according to you - because she had to win by more?

That being said, the fundamentals of our Democratic majority is strong.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

LOL the IBD pollster claimed that Sarah Sanders and Kirstjen Nielsen getting chased out of restaurants is helping Trump.

[IceSpear]

LOL the IBD pollster claimed that Sarah Sanders and Kirstjen Nielsen getting chased out of restaurants is helping Trump.

Their poll #analysis is always ridiculously biased, but to their credit they don't seem to ever fudge the raw data.

[Pollster]

I've always wondered: what's wrong with asking the respondent how likely they are to vote on the 5-point scale?  If the result is 5, they're likely; if less than 4, they're not; exactly 4 I could go either way on (maybe then you include other factors).  I think PPP does something like this.

I've worked for polling firms that build likely voter models based on past voting history and propensity scoring and then survey random samples of that universe, as well as firms that simply survey random samples of all registered voters and ask the voter to self-assess their likelihood to turn out. It often depends on the range of options the voter has to assess their propensity (i.e. having them choose between "likely" or "not likely" is far less reliable than something like your idea of a scale) but I have found that self-assessment is a far better screen than predetermining the sample.

The downside to sampling all registered voters is that it does increase the likelihood of having a skewed set of raw data that would require heavy oversampling, heavy weighting, or both.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

LOL the IBD pollster claimed that Sarah Sanders and Kirstjen Nielsen getting chased out of restaurants is helping Trump.

Their poll #analysis is always ridiculously biased, but to their credit they don't seem to ever fudge the raw data.

I would love to meet the voter who wasn't going to vote GOP at first, but is now going to because Nielsen couldn't get her chicken fajita.

[CookieDamage]

Well, we have to adjust the polls using the hofoid method of critical opinionizing, so the Men R+8 should be R+19 and Women D+25 should be R+2. Also, Red Wave.

[LimoLiberal]

https://twitter.com/SteveKornacki/status/1014119502588579840

Was D+7 in February.

[Gass3268]

Lol, Survey Monkey (D- 538 pollster)

[Brittain33]

Thank you for flinging that poo in our direction, SurveyMonkey

[BudgieForce]

I do think it's funny Kornacki literally tweeted about a new MorningConsult poll showing dems +8 right after but LimoLiberal only posted about the SurveyMonkey poll.

[BudgieForce]

Yeah the hacks like Andrew and Krazen are already jizzing up a storm over at RRH and RedState because of an obscure Trump -3 poll. I guess they convinced themselves that AZ-8 was a fluke and that Doug Jones and Conor Lamb really were elected as Republicans

We've gotten multiple generic ballot polls this week already:

D+10(Ipsos)
D+8(IBD)
D+8(MC)
D+9(Quinnipiac)
D+3(SurveyMonkey)
D+4(Rasmussen)

That averages to D+7. That's a pretty reasonable estimate to where things are at right now.