2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1018857860527280130

Uh, this is big.

They also have the House GCB for the state at D+4.  Here are the poll toplines: https://www.politico.com/magazine/f/?id=00000164-9583-d7cf-aff4-fdbf97d10001.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1018857860527280130

Uh, this is big.

Good ...flipping the Governorship will allow the Dems to steal McCains Senate seat.

I think McCain would resign before Ducey got sworn in, even considering Arizona's same-party appointment laws.

Even if we got a dem Gubna though, wouldn't they have to appoint a Republican if McCain's seat opens up?

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1018857860527280130

Uh, this is big.

Good ...flipping the Governorship will allow the Dems to steal McCains Senate seat.

I think McCain would resign before Ducey got sworn in, even considering Arizona's same-party appointment laws.

Even if we got a dem Gubna though, wouldn't they have to appoint a Republican if McCain's seat opens up?

Yes, Republican Party would get to pick 3 choices and the Governor would get to pick from that list. Personally, this is my favorite way for Senatorial replacements.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1018857860527280130

Uh, this is big.

Good ...flipping the Governorship will allow the Dems to steal McCains Senate seat.

I think McCain would resign before Ducey got sworn in, even considering Arizona's same-party appointment laws.

Even if we got a dem Gubna though, wouldn't they have to appoint a Republican if McCain's seat opens up?

Yes, Republican Party would get to pick 3 choices and the Governor would get to pick from that list. Personally, this is my favorite way for Senatorial replacements.

If I was the Gubna, I'd pick the weakest one and then hope that Gallego challenges them at the next election.

[junior chįmp]

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1018857860527280130

Uh, this is big.

Good ...flipping the Governorship will allow the Dems to steal McCains Senate seat.

I think McCain would resign before Ducey got sworn in, even considering Arizona's same-party appointment laws.

Even if we got a dem Gubna though, wouldn't they have to appoint a Republican if McCain's seat opens up?

Yes, Republican Party would get to pick 3 choices and the Governor would get to pick from that list. Personally, this is my favorite way for Senatorial replacements.

If the AZ legislature flips...they can just change the law and let the governor appoint who he wants

[JG]

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1018857860527280130

Uh, this is big.

Good ...flipping the Governorship will allow the Dems to steal McCains Senate seat.

I think McCain would resign before Ducey got sworn in, even considering Arizona's same-party appointment laws.

Even if we got a dem Gubna though, wouldn't they have to appoint a Republican if McCain's seat opens up?

Yes, Republican Party would get to pick 3 choices and the Governor would get to pick from that list. Personally, this is my favorite way for Senatorial replacements.

If the AZ legislature flips...they can just change the law and let the governor appoint who he wants

I think the optics of that would be terrible, especially for a replacement for someone as respected (deservedly or not) as McCain.

[Nyvin]

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1018857860527280130

Uh, this is big.

Good ...flipping the Governorship will allow the Dems to steal McCains Senate seat.

I think McCain would resign before Ducey got sworn in, even considering Arizona's same-party appointment laws.

Even if we got a dem Gubna though, wouldn't they have to appoint a Republican if McCain's seat opens up?

Yes, Republican Party would get to pick 3 choices and the Governor would get to pick from that list. Personally, this is my favorite way for Senatorial replacements.

If the AZ legislature flips...they can just change the law and let the governor appoint who he wants

I think the optics of that would be terrible, especially for a replacement for someone as respected (deservedly or not) as McCain.

Agreed, it'd look like a greedy power grab.

[IceSpear]

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1018857860527280130

Uh, this is big.

Good ...flipping the Governorship will allow the Dems to steal McCains Senate seat.

I think McCain would resign before Ducey got sworn in, even considering Arizona's same-party appointment laws.

Even if we got a dem Gubna though, wouldn't they have to appoint a Republican if McCain's seat opens up?

Yes, Republican Party would get to pick 3 choices and the Governor would get to pick from that list. Personally, this is my favorite way for Senatorial replacements.

If the AZ legislature flips...they can just change the law and let the governor appoint who he wants

I think the optics of that would be terrible, especially for a replacement for someone as respected (deservedly or not) as McCain.

Agreed, it'd look like a greedy power grab.

Because greedy power grabs like stealing a SCOTUS seat hurt the Republicans so much. Or hurt Massachusetts Democrats so much in 2004.

Anyway, IA-03 has long been underrated as a potential pickup opportunity. Young has never had to run against the tide.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1018857860527280130

Uh, this is big.

Good ...flipping the Governorship will allow the Dems to steal McCains Senate seat.

I think McCain would resign before Ducey got sworn in, even considering Arizona's same-party appointment laws.

Even if we got a dem Gubna though, wouldn't they have to appoint a Republican if McCain's seat opens up?

Yes, Republican Party would get to pick 3 choices and the Governor would get to pick from that list. Personally, this is my favorite way for Senatorial replacements.

If the AZ legislature flips...they can just change the law and let the governor appoint who he wants

I think the optics of that would be terrible, especially for a replacement for someone as respected (deservedly or not) as McCain.

Agreed, it'd look like a greedy power grab.

Because greedy power grabs like stealing a SCOTUS seat hurt the Republicans so much. Or hurt Massachusetts Democrats so much in 2004.

I agree. I doubt even this occurring would stay in the news for long, possibly one or two weeks, and even then, McCain's praise would go down the drain after Trump leaves.

[Landslide Lyndon]

This conversation is useless. If somehow Democrats win the trifecta then McCain will resign during the lame duck period.

[Devils30]

Dems could pass a special election provision then.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Dems could pass a special election provision then.

This is getting ridiculous.

[Doimper]

Texan GOP congressmen are using some classic Atlas logic:

[GeorgiaModerate]

Texan GOP congressmen are using some classic Atlas logic:

In other words, they're not going to poll as long as Trump is in office.

[LimoLiberal]

Texan GOP congressmen are using some classic Atlas logic:

could you link this article, please?

[Doimper]

Texan GOP congressmen are using some classic Atlas logic:

could you link this article, please?

https://www.texastribune.org/2018/07/16/7-texas-republicans-congress-were-outraised-their-democratic-rivals/

[Progressive Pessimist]

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1018857860527280130

Uh, this is big.

Good ...flipping the Governorship will allow the Dems to steal McCains Senate seat.

I think McCain would resign before Ducey got sworn in, even considering Arizona's same-party appointment laws.

Even if we got a dem Gubna though, wouldn't they have to appoint a Republican if McCain's seat opens up?

Yes, Republican Party would get to pick 3 choices and the Governor would get to pick from that list. Personally, this is my favorite way for Senatorial replacements.

If the AZ legislature flips...they can just change the law and let the governor appoint who he wants

I think the optics of that would be terrible, especially for a replacement for someone as respected (deservedly or not) as McCain.

Agreed, it'd look like a greedy power grab.

Because greedy power grabs like stealing a SCOTUS seat hurt the Republicans so much. Or hurt Massachusetts Democrats so much in 2004.

[CookieDamage]

Any New Jersey polls?

[Gass3268]

Rohrabacher is losing under all models:

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1019190073986813953

[Brittain33]

Rouda is very brave given that he'll have the full force of the Russian security apparatus working against him and his family. I hope he has secret service protection and his relatives all know how to avoid getting phished.

[Hindsight was 2020]

Rohrabacher is losing under all models:

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1019190073986813953

Digging into the info it seems Rouda isn’t winning by more due to low name recognition. So good start for him

[ON Progressive]

PRRI GCB: Dems lead 53-42 nationwide

Some state GCBs:
IL - Dems 57-40
OH - Dems 50-48
MI - Dems 54-43
WI - Reps 50-49
MN - Dems 53-45

https://www.prri.org/research/American-democracy-in-crisis-voters-midterms-trump-election-2018/

[Brittain33]

PRRI GCB: Dems lead 53-42 nationwide

Some state GCBs:
IL - Dems 57-40
OH - Dems 50-48
MI - Dems 54-43
WI - Reps 50-49
MN - Dems 53-45

https://www.prri.org/research/American-democracy-in-crisis-voters-midterms-trump-election-2018/

Those seem... awfully generous to Republicans. Especially if the special elections and judicial election in WI have any relation to the ultimate GCB.

[KingSweden]

PRRI GCB: Dems lead 53-42 nationwide

Some state GCBs:
IL - Dems 57-40
OH - Dems 50-48
MI - Dems 54-43
WI - Reps 50-49
MN - Dems 53-45

https://www.prri.org/research/American-democracy-in-crisis-voters-midterms-trump-election-2018/

Those seem... awfully generous to Republicans. Especially if the special elections and judicial election in WI have any relation to the ultimate GCB.

It’s an 11 point lead nationally. The state sizes seem small, but only WI looks like a clear outlier

[GeorgiaModerate]

PRRI GCB: Dems lead 53-42 nationwide

Some state GCBs:
IL - Dems 57-40
OH - Dems 50-48
MI - Dems 54-43
WI - Reps 50-49
MN - Dems 53-45

https://www.prri.org/research/American-democracy-in-crisis-voters-midterms-trump-election-2018/

Those seem... awfully generous to Republicans. Especially if the special elections and judicial election in WI have any relation to the ultimate GCB.

It’s an 11 point lead nationally. The state sizes seem small, but only WI looks like a clear outlier

From the poll details: