2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please

[IceSpear]

What do we think is the point at which the House flips?  Probably D+6.5 or so if we are going strictly by the R-held seats with the closest Clinton/Trump numbers.  Increasingly, though, it looks like there are enough Ojedas and McCreadys leading deep in Trump country to make it lower than that.  I would be fairly confident D+5 nationwide flips the House, and under the right circumstances, even D+3-4 could.

The "Dems need to win the PV by at least 19 points to even have a CHANCE at winning the House" #analysis was always idiotic. D+5 could easily be enough, though I wouldn't say it's guaranteed until the 8+ range.

[IceSpear]

I really hope we dont find out that a +7 popular vote win isnt enough to flip the house. That would be incredibly demoralizing.

I'm sure Republicans love having so much power, but they should care about how they get it too. This isn't a game, after all. There is a lot at stake in these elections, and constantly holding power despite getting far fewer votes is a really bad way to maintain faith in the country's elections. It's compounded by the fact that Republicans actively sow distrust among their own voters just so they can justify voter suppression laws.

Most of them have no problem with getting power through election interference from a foreign adversary, so is it really surprising that they'd have no problem with getting power through domestic shenaningans performed by themselves?

[Greatblueheron]

I really hope we dont find out that a +7 popular vote win isnt enough to flip the house. That would be incredibly demoralizing.

It’s highly unlikely, that Democrats would win the popular vote by 7 points and fail to win a House majority. Although, with the final percentages tabulated in California, Democrats won the House vote by 29 points in the jungle primary and only outvoted Republicans in one of their districts (CA-49).

[Skill and Chance]

I really hope we dont find out that a +7 popular vote win isnt enough to flip the house. That would be incredibly demoralizing.

It’s highly unlikely, that Democrats would win the popular vote by 7 points and fail to win a House majority. Although, with the final percentages tabulated in California, Democrats won the House vote by 29 points in the jungle primary and only outvoted Republicans in one of their districts (CA-49).

That's actually less than Clinton beat Trump by in CA.

[Pericles]

D +5 isn't enough. Democrats needed to win by 12 to win in 2016. While I think it won't be that bad in 2018, certainly +6 or +7 isn't safe majority but is probably the bare minimum.

[IceSpear]

D +5 isn't enough. Democrats needed to win by 12 to win in 2016.

That's not how it works. You can't just apply uniform swing from the previous election. By that logic, Republicans had no chance at winning dozens of districts they picked up in 2010.

[IceSpear]

I really hope we dont find out that a +7 popular vote win isnt enough to flip the house. That would be incredibly demoralizing.

I'm not that optimistic. I'd say +10, thanks to the illegal gerrymandering.

That's why I think the Senate will almost certainly flip, but the House won't.

Not sure why you guys are so worried. In a universe where Phil Bredesen is competitive, much less favored, then Dems taking the House is a certainty. Each election is not an independent event, they are heavily correlated.

[Virginiá]

Most of them have no problem with getting power through election interference from a foreign adversary, so is it really surprising that they'd have no problem with getting power through domestic shenaningans performed by themselves?

I mean, I'm not saying it's surprising that they have no problem with all of this, I'm just saying they should have a problem with it. America isn't guaranteed a stable democracy by any means, and everyone seems to take this for granted. Republicans have wormed their way into the presidency two times in a row now without winning even a plurality of the support of the people, and their response to this is "rules are rules." Combined with almost every other part of our elections being biased in favor of conservatives, that is a terrible path to go down.

OTOH, there is a not-entirely-unreasonable argument to make that a sizable faction of conservatives don't want a democracy to begin with. The constitution and its principles is not sacrosanct in this country, and some of the people who act the most like it is care the least about it when push comes to shove.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1017153866633277441

GOP holding their internals close to their chests. Wonder why?

Update...

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1018249453831163904

[Pericles]

D +5 isn't enough. Democrats needed to win by 12 to win in 2016.

That's not how it works. You can't just apply uniform swing from the previous election. By that logic, Republicans had no chance at winning dozens of districts they picked up in 2010.

I don't think the Dems will need that kind of margin, but it would be implausible for them to need D+12 and then only need D+4, especially when gerrymandering has had a similarly severe effect in 2012 and 2014. 2018 is different in some ways due to the wider field of competitive races and better candidate quality, and just different dynamics, but D+7 being the margin needed-which is in line with respected estimates-seems about right, give or take 1 or 2 percentage points either way.

[Gass3268]

Republicans are scared about TX-07 and TX-32, feel better about TX-23:

https://twitter.com/TexasTribAbby/status/1018851101242781696

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1018866236678115329

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1018866236678115329

Pretty sure Rouda will lead, the fact that the incumbent Rohrabacher only had 30% support in the jungle primary tells me that voters are not that keen on supporting him. The two questions I have are
1. Will the race be close, or will Rouda have a good lead?
2. Will Rouda get any more star power? Jason Alexander helped him out, and Mark Hamill has already given both his support and his vote for him.

[LimoLiberal]

I just don't understand why they are so confident about TX-23. It's switched hands 4 times in the last 12 years.

[KingSweden]

I just don't understand why they are so confident about TX-23. It's switched hands 4 times in the last 12 years.

I don’t get it either, unless they are banking on low turnout in the Valley (not an unreasonable assumption in most midterm environments)

[ON Progressive]

IA-03 (Axne internal from ALG Research):

Axne (D) 45
Young (R-inc) 41

GCB: Dems lead 47-38

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000164-a0ef-d844-adf5-e5ef30a40001

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

IA-03 (Axne internal from ALG Research):

Axne (D) 45
Young (R-inc) 41

GCB: Dems lead 47-38

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000164-a0ef-d844-adf5-e5ef30a40001

Holy wow, that blindsided me. I expected Young to have a comfy lead.

[GeorgiaModerate]

IA-03 (Axne internal from ALG Research):

Axne (D) 45
Young (R-inc) 41

GCB: Dems lead 47-38

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000164-a0ef-d844-adf5-e5ef30a40001

Holy wow, that blindsided me. I expected Young to have a comfy lead.

Well, it's an Axne internal, and the usual rule of thumb for internals is to subtract 5 points from the side whose poll it is.  But that still indicates a very close race.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

IA-03 (Axne internal from ALG Research):

Axne (D) 45
Young (R-inc) 41

GCB: Dems lead 47-38

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000164-a0ef-d844-adf5-e5ef30a40001

Holy wow, that blindsided me. I expected Young to have a comfy lead.

Well, it's an Axne internal, and the usual rule of thumb for internals is to subtract 5 points from the net difference.  But that still indicates a very close race.

Five points is a bit dramatic, and even in that case a one point lead is not exactly comfy.

[GeorgiaModerate]

IA-03 (Axne internal from ALG Research):

Axne (D) 45
Young (R-inc) 41

GCB: Dems lead 47-38

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000164-a0ef-d844-adf5-e5ef30a40001

Holy wow, that blindsided me. I expected Young to have a comfy lead.

Well, it's an Axne internal, and the usual rule of thumb for internals is to subtract 5 points from the net difference.  But that still indicates a very close race.

Five points is a bit dramatic, and even in that case a one point lead is not exactly comfy.

Oh, I'm not disagreeing with you. Even with the adjustment it's a surprise, and if this poll is a good indicator then it's anybody's race.

[Gass3268]

IA-03 (Axne internal from ALG Research):

Axne (D) 45
Young (R-inc) 41

GCB: Dems lead 47-38

https://www.politico.com/f/?id=00000164-a0ef-d844-adf5-e5ef30a40001

Holy wow, that blindsided me. I expected Young to have a comfy lead.

Well, it's an Axne internal, and the usual rule of thumb for internals is to subtract 5 points from the net difference.  But that still indicates a very close race.

Five points is a bit dramatic, and even in that case a one point lead is not exactly comfy.

Oh, I'm not disagreeing with you. Even with the adjustment it's a surprise, and if this poll is a good indicator then it's anybody's race.

I'm not predicting it, but it would not shock me if Democrats have 3 of the 4 Congressional seats, the Governorship, and 1-2 of the state legislative chambers. There has been a bit of a counter response to Trump in the state.

[Ebsy]

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1018857860527280130

Uh, this is big.

[junior chįmp]

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1018857860527280130

Uh, this is big.

Good ...flipping the Governorship will allow the Dems to steal McCains Senate seat.

[Zaybay]

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1018857860527280130

Uh, this is big.

Wow, and this is likely Morning Consult, the go to for Politico. This is really big. I could see a D trifecta, and senate seat with these numbers.

[Doimper]

https://twitter.com/politico/status/1018857860527280130

Uh, this is big.

Good ...flipping the Governorship will allow the Dems to steal McCains Senate seat.

I think McCain would resign before Ducey got sworn in, even considering Arizona's same-party appointment laws.