2018 Congressional Generic Ballot/House Polls Megathread 2 - no debates please

[Zaybay]

PRRI GCB: Dems lead 53-42 nationwide

Some state GCBs:
IL - Dems 57-40
OH - Dems 50-48
MI - Dems 54-43
WI - Reps 50-49
MN - Dems 53-45

https://www.prri.org/research/American-democracy-in-crisis-voters-midterms-trump-election-2018/

Those seem... awfully generous to Republicans. Especially if the special elections and judicial election in WI have any relation to the ultimate GCB.

It’s an 11 point lead nationally. The state sizes seem small, but only WI looks like a clear outlier

Huh, polling that seems to get every other state right, but is miserably incorrect on WI, where have I heard that before....

[Brittain33]

On 538, Dems are at the highest they've been since March 19.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I think people are seriously looking over TX 32nd. I used to think it was safe R, but it has tightened over time. The only poll out, yes with generic dem shows Sessions down, he is being outraised (he will still have enough but yeah) And according to that ppp poll, 51% of people here say they would be less likely to vote for somebody who supports the tax scam. And we got a really solid dem candidate and a libertarian to siphon some GOP votes. The district pvi also pretty much falls within the moe of our GCB leads at least on rcp. That's my case for this district that should be regarded as tilt R, and just to prove I'm still sane, I still think Sessions narrowly wins.

I'm just saying it's not getting the attention it deserves.

[Yank2133]

On 538, Dems are at the highest they've been since March 19.

Not surprised.

Morris from upshot has been saying for months that the Democrats lead would start to get larger as we head into the fall months.

[IceSpear]

Rohrabacher trailing a guy with 40% name recognition bodes almost as well for him as his stunning 30% of the vote in the jungle primary. Toss up/Tilt R.

[IceSpear]

PRRI GCB: Dems lead 53-42 nationwide

Some state GCBs:
IL - Dems 57-40
OH - Dems 50-48
MI - Dems 54-43
WI - Reps 50-49
MN - Dems 53-45

https://www.prri.org/research/American-democracy-in-crisis-voters-midterms-trump-election-2018/

Wississippi confirmed.

[Dr. Arch]

PRRI GCB: Dems lead 53-42 nationwide

Some state GCBs:
IL - Dems 57-40
OH - Dems 50-48
MI - Dems 54-43
WI - Reps 50-49
MN - Dems 53-45

https://www.prri.org/research/American-democracy-in-crisis-voters-midterms-trump-election-2018/

Wississippi confirmed.

Pls

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Dems at +9.1 on 538, and +8.2 on RCP.

[Zaybay]

Dems at +9.1 on 538, and +8.2 on RCP.

*whistle* thats high

[new_patomic]

PRRI GCB: Dems lead 53-42 nationwide

Some state GCBs:
IL - Dems 57-40
OH - Dems 50-48
MI - Dems 54-43
WI - Reps 50-49
MN - Dems 53-45

https://www.prri.org/research/American-democracy-in-crisis-voters-midterms-trump-election-2018/

Those seem... awfully generous to Republicans. Especially if the special elections and judicial election in WI have any relation to the ultimate GCB.

Losing Illinois by 17 is pretty horrendous considering 4 of their 7 seats are vulnerable.

They lost the PV in 2016 by like 53-45? And I imagine the Democrats aren't getting many more votes out of already incredibly blue districts like IL-1 or IL-2.

[Littlefinger]

NC13 Civitas: Budd 40% Manning 35%

[ajc0918]

NC13 Civitas: Budd 40% Manning 35%

This seems like a trash poll to have 25% undecided but Manning down by 5 wouldn't surprise me.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico, July 13-14, 1878 RV

D 45 (+3)
R 37 (nc)

The 538 average is now at D+9.4 (48.5-39.1).  The gap was last this high a couple of times in March.  The last time it was higher was in mid-January.

[Gass3268]

Morning Consult/Politico, July 13-14, 1878 RV

D 45 (+3)
R 37 (nc)

The 538 average is now at D+9.4 (48.5-39.1).  The gap was last this high a couple of times in March.  The last time it was higher was in mid-January.

We are currently closer to the December highs than the May lows.

[Tender Branson]

NC13 Civitas: Budd 40% Manning 35%

R+5

... which is a nice swing, because this district is usually about R+14 in Presidential/Congressional elections.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Morning Consult/Politico, July 13-14, 1878 RV

D 45 (+3)
R 37 (nc)

The 538 average is now at D+9.4 (48.5-39.1).  The gap was last this high a couple of times in March.  The last time it was higher was in mid-January.

We are currently closer to the December highs than the May lows.

ISTR someone here (maybe you) predicting that May would be a low point in the GCB.  That's looking pretty good right now.

[KingSweden]

NC13 Civitas: Budd 40% Manning 35%

This seems like a trash poll to have 25% undecided but Manning down by 5 wouldn't surprise me.

Me neither. Bad methodology but margin seems reasonable

[Atlas Force]

PRRI GCB: Dems lead 53-42 nationwide

Some state GCBs:
IL - Dems 57-40
OH - Dems 50-48
MI - Dems 54-43
WI - Reps 50-49
MN - Dems 53-45

https://www.prri.org/research/American-democracy-in-crisis-voters-midterms-trump-election-2018/

If Minnesota Dems are winning the House vote by 8 then they’re holding on to their three vulnerable seats and picking up MN-02 and MN-03.

[Gustaf]

PRRI GCB: Dems lead 53-42 nationwide

Some state GCBs:
IL - Dems 57-40
OH - Dems 50-48
MI - Dems 54-43
WI - Reps 50-49
MN - Dems 53-45

https://www.prri.org/research/American-democracy-in-crisis-voters-midterms-trump-election-2018/

If Minnesota Dems are winning the House vote by 8 then they’re holding on to their three vulnerable seats and picking up MN-02 and MN-03.

I don't really buy Minnesota GCB being to the right of the nation either though.

[LimoLiberal]

The weekly trackers.


Reuters/Ipsos: D+15 to D+10
Morning Consult: D+5 to D+8
Yougov: D+4 to D+8
Rasmussen: D+8 to D+5

[Gass3268]

The weekly trackers.


Reuters/Ipsos: D+15 to D+10
Morning Consult: D+5 to D+8
Yougov: D+4 to D+8
Rasmussen: D+8 to D+5

These are becoming a wash every week.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The weekly trackers.


Reuters/Ipsos: D+15 to D+10
Morning Consult: D+5 to D+8
Yougov: D+4 to D+8
Rasmussen: D+8 to D+5

These are becoming a wash every week.

As some people noted at the time, the D+15 from Ipsos was a likely outlier.  It's been quite bouncy; the last six (oldest to newest) are D+8, +4, +10, +6, +15, +10.

[BudgieForce]

The weekly trackers.


Reuters/Ipsos: D+15 to D+10
Morning Consult: D+5 to D+8
Yougov: D+4 to D+8
Rasmussen: D+8 to D+5

These are becoming a wash every week.

I think it'd be more useful if we just combined the major online trackers and use the average as singular poll.

[Tender Branson]

Winning the West has polled 500 likely voters each recently in AZ, CO, MT, NM and NV and generic congressional ballot results for each state are buried in the releases + several other important issues such as Trump approval and how things are moving in the right/wrong direction in each state and the US:

Generic congressional ballot

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AZ: D+1
CO: D+12
MT: R+1
NM: D+21
NV: D+5

Trump approval:

AZ: 43-52 (... Trump+2 sample, "how did you vote in 2016")
CO: 34-60 (Hillary+12 sample)
MT: 45-46 (Trump+11 sample)
NM: 34-61 (Hillary+15 sample)
NV: 42-53 (Hillary+3 sample)

Are things moving in the right/wrong direction in [state] and [the US]:

AZ: 41-49, 42-55
CO: 46-43, 32-63
MT: 46-38, 38-54
NM: 23-65, 30-66
NV: 46-42, 42-55

State topline results

Overall presentation

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

OOF those Montana numbers...