Japan 2016 - July 10

[jaichind]

There is now talk that ORA will also recruit founder and former leader of the disbanded YP 渡辺 喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) to run for ORA, most likely on the PR slate.  I guess they are trying to get the old YP vote.

[jaichind]

There is now talk that ORA will also recruit founder and former leader of the disbanded YP 渡辺 喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) to run for ORA, most likely on the PR slate.  I guess they are trying to get the old YP vote.

Confirmed that Watanabe  will run PR section of ORA.  Watanabe's nephew who was elected an MP for Upper House back in 2013 on the YP ticket has recently joined the LDP caucus.   Not clear if he will join ORA as well or will the Watanabe clan hedge their bets with the uncle in ORA and nephew in LDP. 

[jaichind]

DP-PLP-SDP-JCP deal reached in the old SDP stronghold of 大分(Ōita) where a DP candidate will run.  This will shift the seat into tossup between LDP and DP with a slight edge, in my view, for DP.



青森(Aomori) - DP candidate -> solid LDP
宮城(Miyagi) - DP candidate -> tossup
秋田(Akita) - DP candidate -> lean LDP
山形(Yamagata) - center-left independent (former DPJ MP) -> tossup/lean center-left independent
福島(Fukushima) - DP candidate -> lean DP
栃木(Tochigi) - center-left independent -> solid LDP
群馬(Gunma) - DP candidate -> solid LDP
新潟(Niigata) - PLP candidate -> tossup
富山(Toyama)- center-left independent -> LDP landslide
石川(Ishikawa) - center-left independent -> solid LDP
福井(Fukui) - center-left independent -> solid LDP
山梨(Yamanashi) - DP candidate -> tossup
長野(Nagano) - DP candidate -> lean DP
滋賀(Shiga) - DP candidate -> lean DP
和歌山(Wakayama) - center-left independent -> LDP landslide
鳥取(Tottori/
島根(Shimane) - center-left independent -> LDP landslide
岡山(Okayama) - DP candidate -> Solid LDP
山口(Yamaguchi) - center-left independent -> LDP landslide
徳島(Tokushima)/
高知(Kōchi) - center-left independent -> solid LDP
愛媛(Ehime) - center-left independent -> LDP landlide
長崎(Nagasaki) - DP candidate -> solid LDP
熊本(Kumamoto) - center-left independent -> LDP landslide
大分(Ōita) - DP candidate -> tossup
宮崎(Miyazaki) - center-left independent -> LDP landslide
沖縄(Okinawa) - OSMP candidate -> lean OSMP

The most critical ones left to get a deal on are to re-lock down 岩手(Iwate) , and 三重(Mie) (this one is most difficult as the local DP branch is fairly hostile to JCP).  Mie right now is tossup but could be lean DP if a deal can be made with JCP.

[jaichind]

Looks like famous center-left constitutional scholar 小林節 (Kobayashi Takashi) will form a separate party to run on the PR slate of the 2016 elections on the platform of protecting the Constitution from the Abe regime.  This might be the death nail for PLP to cross 2% and win a PR seat for PLP.  Right now PLP has positioned itself as the most Leftist party  outside the JCP on the issue of Constitutional reform as its niche.  Now this party might win enough votes from that niche to deny PLP the votes to cross 2%.

[jaichind]

Founder and former leader of the defunct YP 辺 喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) who will run on ORA's PR list has joined ORA.  This is totally absurd.  Back in late 2013 a faction of the YP wanted to form an formal alliance and eventual merger with the Hashimoto led JRP.  Watanabe was opposed to this move and as a result the pro-JRP bloc split out to form UP which formed an alliance with JRP.  In 2014 JRP and UP merged into JIP.  Now Watanabe has decided to join a Hashimoto rump party ORA.  BTW, the original UP gang mostly led by 江田 憲司(Eda Kenji) have since broken with Hashimoto and joined DP along with the rest of Hashimoto-less JIP.  So in late 2013 Eda wanted to be with Hashimoto over the objections of  Watanabe.  Now Watanabe want to be with Hashimoto after Eda broke with him.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Founder and former leader of the defunct YP 辺 喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) who will run on ORA's PR list has joined ORA.  This is totally absurd.  Back in late 2013 a faction of the YP wanted to form an formal alliance and eventual merger with the Hashimoto led JRP.  Watanabe was opposed to this move and as a result the pro-JRP bloc split out to form UP which formed an alliance with JRP.  In 2014 JRP and UP merged into JIP.  Now Watanabe has decided to join a Hashimoto rump party ORA.  BTW, the original UP gang mostly led by 江田 憲司(Eda Kenji) have since broken with Hashimoto and joined DP along with the rest of Hashimoto-less JIP.  So in late 2013 Eda wanted to be with Hashimoto over the objections of  Watanabe.  Now Watanabe want to be with Hashimoto after Eda broke with him.

Somebody needs to make a flow chart of all this.

[jaichind]

DP-PLP-SDP-JCP deal reached in 岐阜(Gifu).  Gifu is in 東海(Tōkai) region which like 東北 (Tōhoku) has been trending away from LDP over the last few cycles.  This deal makes still keeps Gifu in the solid LDP but with a much smaller margin.



青森(Aomori) - DP candidate -> solid LDP
宮城(Miyagi) - DP candidate -> tossup
秋田(Akita) - DP candidate -> lean LDP
山形(Yamagata) - center-left independent (former DPJ MP) -> tossup/lean center-left independent
福島(Fukushima) - DP candidate -> lean DP
栃木(Tochigi) - center-left independent -> solid LDP
群馬(Gunma) - DP candidate -> solid LDP
新潟(Niigata) - PLP candidate -> tossup
富山(Toyama)- center-left independent -> LDP landslide
石川(Ishikawa) - center-left independent -> solid LDP
福井(Fukui) - center-left independent -> solid LDP
山梨(Yamanashi) - DP candidate -> tossup
長野(Nagano) - DP candidate -> lean DP
岐阜(Gifu) - DP candidate -> solid LDP
滋賀(Shiga) - DP candidate -> lean DP
和歌山(Wakayama) - center-left independent -> LDP landslide
鳥取(Tottori/
島根(Shimane) - center-left independent -> LDP landslide
岡山(Okayama) - DP candidate -> Solid LDP
山口(Yamaguchi) - center-left independent -> LDP landslide
徳島(Tokushima)/
高知(Kōchi) - center-left independent -> solid LDP
愛媛(Ehime) - center-left independent -> LDP landlide
長崎(Nagasaki) - DP candidate -> solid LDP
熊本(Kumamoto) - center-left independent -> LDP landslide
大分(Ōita) - DP candidate -> tossup
宮崎(Miyazaki) - center-left independent -> LDP landslide
沖縄(Okinawa) - OSMP candidate -> lean OSMP

Only single districts outstanding are 岩手(Iwate) where the opposition parities are working on a new deal now that the PLP incumbent declined to run for reelection, 三重(Mie) where a deal making seems to be stuck, 奈良(Nara) which is in Kinki where talks are still ongoing but has the extra factor that ORA might run a candidate, 香川(Kagawa) where it seems talks have broken down for now,  佐賀(Saga) where talks are ongoing, and 鹿児島(Kagoshima) where talks seems to have broken down.  Other than Iwate and Mie the rest does not make a difference as LDP are predestined win those other seats.



 
 

[DC Al Fine]

Can someone explain the DP=JIP merger?

As I understand it, Japan Innovation Party came out of Japan Resoration Party which was right wing-populist and quite nationalist, but they merged with the Democratic Party which was the blandly centre to centre left party... So is Japanese politics now small c conservative vs. reformists of all stripes or am I missing something?

[jaichind]

Can someone explain the DP=JIP merger?

As I understand it, Japan Innovation Party came out of Japan Resoration Party which was right wing-populist and quite nationalist, but they merged with the Democratic Party which was the blandly centre to centre left party... So is Japanese politics now small c conservative vs. reformists of all stripes or am I missing something?

This is really the consequence of Hashimoto's M&A strategy of political party growth.  In many ways Hashimoto's ORA is like WorldCom who built a solid communications business but them did a massive number of levered buyouts in a M&A binge which lead to a massive organization with very large debt which eventually went under in 2002. 

Hashimoto's ORA was a LDP splinter in Osaka which then took over a large amount of the LDP and opposition space in Osaka by 2011 with very solid foundations at the local level.  It was a very united and disciplined political organisation.    Then Hashimoto decided to try to leverage his political assets in a M&A surge to try to grow overnight into a national party.  In 2012 he took in all sort of DPJ and YP (itself also a Libertarian LDP splinter formed in 2008 and enjoyed significant success so far)  rebels.  He even tried to recruit his old  friend Abe (who was down on his luck in the LDP wilderness) into his party before Abe won a shock victory in the LPD leadership election.  He then merged with the Far Right hawk LDP splinter SPJ and formed JRP which has many disparate factions each coming in with their own political debts. 

JRP did fairly well in the 2012 elections but after that Hashimoto faced the problem how to establish JRP as dominate political force in Japan. There were factions which were for an alliance and merger with YP before taking on DPJ and LDP.  Others were for an alliance with DPJ to take on LDP.  Others were for working with LDP to wipe out DPJ so then JRP becomes the alternative to LDP by default.  After many twists and turns Hashimoto went for a strategy of merger with YP.  Both JRP and YP split as a result.  The old SPJ facton of JRP was opposed to this and split from JRP to form FPG.  The pro-merger faction of YP split out from YP to form UP while rump YP continued.  The merged party became JIP. 

Then the next strategic problem took place.  Should JIP now try to focus on defeating DPJ to displace it or to form an alliance with DPJ to take in LDP.  Hashimoto and his original ORA was for the former.  But the YP and DPJ factions within JRP insisted on the latter and Hashimoto reluctantly accepted JIP tactical alliances with DPJ in the 2014 elections. As a result Hashimoto did not really campaign in the 2014 elections.  The results of the 2014 elections showed that while JIP did a bit better than many feared that DPJ is one peg above JIP in terms of overall support.  The DPJ and YP factions within JIP took this as a signal that their strategy of alliance with DPJ was correct since DPJ most likely could not be destroyed.    Hashimoto and the ORA faction disagreed and  Hashimoto and his ORA faction bolted from JIP to form ORA again. 

With the real very organized part of JIP (the Osaka ORA faction) gone, what remains of JIP which is really just a bunch of ex-DPJ and ex-YP blocs decided to work with the Right wing of DPJ on a merger which eventually took place forming DP.  ORA has mostly shrunk down to its 2011 Osaka core and is back to its old tricks to M&A itself to get bigger outside of Osaka by trying to recruit various ex-FPG, ex-YP leaders outside of Osaka.  Given the novel factor it had in 2012 is gone most likely this will not really get it much support.  I suspect after this election ORA will become fairly irrelevant outside of Osaka.

[jaichind]

It is interesting to focus in on 三重(Mie) to find out why it is so hard for the opposition parities to come to a deal and run one candidate against LDP.  By the looks of today a deal seems less likely than not so it will be LDP vs DP vs JCP where it will be neck-to-neck between LDP and DP.  If JCP withdraws and endorses the DP candidate then the DP position will be fairly solid.  So why is it so hard to get a deal in Mei when similar deals has been made almost everywhere else? 

The reason stems from a local Mie party called 新政みえ or New Politics Mie (NPM) which is a DPJ and now DP ally in Mie.  NPM was formed as a local Mie party in 1999 and is really a remnant party of the 連合 or Rengo Party (RP) that was a national force formed in 1989 but went into decline by the late 1990s.   RP was an attempt by various labor unions to create a united front between JSP and DSP to take on LDP.  DSP is a right wing splinter of JSP formed in 1960.  Best way to describe DSP is labor based populist but hawkish and anti-JCP party based on the labor class.  In many ways DSP was in direct competition with KP and JCP for the lower middle income and working class vote in the 1960s to 1980s.  RP wanted to try to unite all non-JCP center-left parties (JSP DSP  SDF KP) into an anti-JCP and anti-LDP force.  RP achieved great success in 1989 Upper House elections but then went into decline quickly.  NPM was formed in Mie as a successor to RP after RP mostly fell apart in the rest of Japan.  So NPM is more like a successor party to DSP in Mie.  Given the anti-JCP sentiments of DSP and now NPM as well as the fact that NPM is fighting against the JCP for the working class vote NPM is very opposed to a DP-JCP alliance in Mie for the Upper House elections.  In the Mie prefecture DP-SDP-NPM is at near parity with LDP-KP in terms of strength.  DP does not want to risk its relationship with NPM so that is why an alliance with JCP  is so hard to achieve in Mie even though the numbers show it is very necessary from a ROI point of view.

[jaichind]

Looks like the Governor of Tokyo 舛添 要一(Masuzoe Yōichi) who founded NPR as a libertarian LDP splinter back in 2010 before quitting NPR to run for Tokyo Governor is in big political trouble.  It seems that had several large personal expense paid for by government expense accounts.  He is insisting that he will not resign but public opinion is already turning against him.  Of course the 2014 election for Tokyo Governor only took place because his predecessor 猪瀬 直樹(Inose Naoki) who won in a special election in 2012 when Tokyo Governor 石原 慎太郎(Ishihara Shintarō) resigned to join JRP and run in the Lower House elections of 2012 had to resign over money scandals.   LDP backed both Inose in 2012 and Masuzoe in 2014 so LDP does not look good from this.  LDP is also not that likely to stick their neck out to back Masuzoe this time since Masuzoe and LDP has had their relations damaged over conflict over the Tokyo 2020 Olympics budget.  The latest all Japan poll had 67% against Masuzoe and 13% for.  There might be yet another special election for Tokyo Governor this year.

[Vega]

I think that his decline in popularity is really interesting considering how he was at one time fairly popular. It seems that it is extremely difficult to be an honest Governor of Tokyo.

Shame they didn't election Hosokawa in 2014.

[jaichind]

DP-PLP-SDP-JCP deal reached in 岩手(Iwate), 奈良(Nara), 香川(Kagawa) and 鹿児島(Kagoshima).  Iwate needed another deal as the current PLP incumbant declined to run.  Everyone agreed on another PLP ex-MP as the common canidate and it is very likely that PLP will win.  Nara is interesting as ORA will most likely be running which could throw the election to DP although for sure LDP has the upper hand.  In Kagoshima it will be a LDP landslide no matter what just like Kagawa.  In Kagawa it is special as for this district all opposition parties will back a JCP candidate.


 
青森(Aomori) - DP candidate -> solid LDP
岩手(Iwate) - PLP candidate -> solid PLP
宮城(Miyagi) - DP candidate -> tossup
秋田(Akita) - DP candidate -> lean LDP
山形(Yamagata) - center-left independent (former DPJ MP) -> tossup/lean center-left independent
福島(Fukushima) - DP candidate -> lean DP
栃木(Tochigi) - center-left independent -> solid LDP
群馬(Gunma) - DP candidate -> solid LDP
新潟(Niigata) - PLP candidate -> tossup
富山(Toyama)- center-left independent -> LDP landslide
石川(Ishikawa) - center-left independent -> solid LDP
福井(Fukui) - center-left independent -> solid LDP
山梨(Yamanashi) - DP candidate -> tossup
長野(Nagano) - DP candidate -> lean DP
岐阜(Gifu) - DP candidate -> solid LDP
滋賀(Shiga) - DP candidate -> lean DP
奈良(Nara) - DP candidate -> solid LDP
和歌山(Wakayama) - center-left independent -> LDP landslide
鳥取(Tottori/
島根(Shimane) - center-left independent -> LDP landslide
岡山(Okayama) - DP candidate -> Solid LDP
山口(Yamaguchi) - center-left independent -> LDP landslide
徳島(Tokushima)/
高知(Kōchi) - center-left independent -> solid LDP
香川(Kagawa) - JCP -> LDP landslide
愛媛(Ehime) - center-left independent -> LDP landlide
長崎(Nagasaki) - DP candidate -> solid LDP
熊本(Kumamoto) - center-left independent -> LDP landslide
大分(Ōita) - DP candidate -> tossup
宮崎(Miyazaki) - center-left independent -> LDP landslide
鹿児島(Kagoshima) - center-left independent -> LDP landslide
沖縄(Okinawa) - OSMP candidate -> lean OSMP

Only single districts outstanding are 三重(Mie) where a deal making seems to be stuck and 佐賀(Saga) where talks are ongoing.  Mie is key as no deal there makes it a tossup when it could have a DP lean with a deal.

[jaichind]

Deal reached in 三重(Mie) and 佐賀(Saga) where in both DP candidate will run.  All 32 districts now covered by opposition alliance deals
 
青森(Aomori) - DP candidate -> solid LDP
岩手(Iwate) - PLP candidate -> solid PLP
宮城(Miyagi) - DP candidate -> tossup
秋田(Akita) - DP candidate -> lean LDP
山形(Yamagata) - center-left independent (former DPJ MP) -> tossup/lean center-left independent
福島(Fukushima) - DP candidate -> lean DP
栃木(Tochigi) - center-left independent -> solid LDP
群馬(Gunma) - DP candidate -> solid LDP
新潟(Niigata) - PLP candidate -> tossup
富山(Toyama)- center-left independent -> LDP landslide
石川(Ishikawa) - center-left independent -> solid LDP
福井(Fukui) - center-left independent -> solid LDP
山梨(Yamanashi) - DP candidate -> tossup
長野(Nagano) - DP candidate -> lean DP
岐阜(Gifu) - DP candidate -> solid LDP
三重(Mie) - DP candidate -> lean DP
滋賀(Shiga) - DP candidate -> lean DP
奈良(Nara) - DP candidate -> solid LDP
和歌山(Wakayama) - center-left independent -> LDP landslide
鳥取(Tottori/
島根(Shimane) - center-left independent -> LDP landslide
岡山(Okayama) - DP candidate -> Solid LDP
山口(Yamaguchi) - center-left independent -> LDP landslide
徳島(Tokushima)/
高知(Kōchi) - center-left independent -> solid LDP
香川(Kagawa) - JCP -> LDP landslide
愛媛(Ehime) - center-left independent -> LDP landlide
佐賀(Saga) - DP candidate -> solid LDP
長崎(Nagasaki) - DP candidate -> solid LDP
熊本(Kumamoto) - center-left independent -> LDP landslide
大分(Ōita) - DP candidate -> tossup
宮崎(Miyazaki) - center-left independent -> LDP landslide
鹿児島(Kagoshima) - center-left independent -> LDP landslide
沖縄(Okinawa) - OSMP candidate -> lean OSMP

[jaichind]

NNN poll of Governor of Tokyo 舛添 要一(Masuzoe Yōichi) explanation of using government expense accounts for private use shows 90% do not think his explanation makes any sense.  



Same poll has Abe cabinet approval around low 40s



NHK poll from a few days ago shows similar Abe cabinet approval

[jaichind]

DP branch in 佐賀(Saga) seems to have rejected the deal the national DP worked out with JCP.  So the deal in Saga is off again.  Does not make that much of a difference in Saga as LDP will win anyway but the optics of the inability to work out a deal here might hurt the grand alliance in other districts.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Who was the last Governor of Tokyo who wasn't completely terrible?

[jaichind]

There are talks again in the media of leaks that Abe will delay the consumption tax which in turn means double election is back on the table after Abe took it off weeks ago.  It seems Abe/LDP are most likely confused by the polls.  One the one hand support levels for DP seems low and falling which should me a cakewalk for LDP-KP.  On the other hand Abe cabinet approval are in the low 40s plus LDP-KP are polling in the mid 40s which are consistent with with a much more tepid performance for LDP-KP.  The reason seems to be an unprecedented number of undecided in the polls.  Abe/LDP are fearful that most of the undecided are really hidden DP-JCP-opposition voters  in which case a double election will lose them the 2/3 majority in the Lower House.  Of course they are also fearful that no double election means they might lose their chance to lock on power for another 4 years at a time that DP-JCP alliance is still taking time to jell a year or two from now the complete failure of Abenomics will be so obvious that LDP could face a much harsher election environment.

[jaichind]

Now that double elections might be back on again 週刊フジ (Fuji Evening) came out with their double election projections



Which means for Lower House it is a LDP-KP landslide even greater than 2014 based on Abe pushing back consumption tax increase plus diplomatic coup of Obama visiting Hiroshima.    This result for sure does not assume any seat adjustment between DP and JCP

            District     PR        Total
LDP        242        74         316
KP             9         26           35
DP           25         46           71
JCP            4         24           28
ORA           4           8           12
SDP           0           2             2
PLP            1          0             1
Others     10          0           10

This seems to imply a vote share of

LDP        35.0%
KP          14.0%
DP          24.0%
JCP         13.5%
ORA         6.5%
SDP         3.5%
PLP          2.0%

For Upper House it has

             Seats
LDP        57
KP          11
DP          28
JCP         11
ORA         7
SDP         2
PLP          1
OSMA      1
NPR         1
Ind          1

Some of these projections do not make sense.

1) The Upper House projections clearly assume DP-JCP cooperation in the Upper House but it does not seem to think such cooperation is possible in the Lower House elections.   
2) 11 for KP in Upper House does not make sense. KP is certain to win 7 district seats.  Its worst case scenario would be 6 seats.  So for KP to win 11 seats then is PR seat in Upper House would be 5 seats which would put their PR vote share at around 10%.  But the Lower House projections already imply a KP PR vote share of around 14%.   Unless this projection assumes massive vote splitting in the two PR vote slates for KP voters (which seems very unlikely) these two projections seems to contradict each other.
3) NPR winning a seat in the Upper House seems unlikely.  It seems almost impossible for NPR to win a PR seat since that would imply a PR vote share of above 2.5%.  Their only real shot is that NPR nominated a famous actress in the Tokyo district.  Again, it seems very unlikely she will win.
4) LDP-KP at 68 seats (lets count 69 by assuming the independent winner is the pro-LDP independent running in 神奈川(Kanagawa) seems to imply that LDP-KP vote share is around 44%-45% and not the 49% it seems to be getting in the Upper House projections.  The two separate projections does not seem to jive with each other. 
 

[jaichind]

Okinawa Prefecture elections 6/5. Okinawa local politics are very different from the rest of Japan.  The US base issue plus the battle of local Okinawa identities has created various local Rightist regionalism splinters from LDP like PGOR as well as radical pacifist left wing regional parties like OSMP as well as ORN (県民ネット) which means (Okinawa) Residents Network.   ORN is really a loose coalition of anti-base leftist regional elements.  JIP is also here and its local branch are now aligned with ORA and allied with PGOR.  DPJ, and now DP, and SDP are part of a grand alliance with OSMP ORN and JCP.   ORA and PGOR are regionalist  and have their own reasons to be suspicious of LDP and their pro-base position but they tend to align with LDP tactically to oppose JCP.  KP here because of the base issue is much more independent of LDP and takes a more neutral position on the US bases.

The governor of Okinawa 翁長 雄志(Onaga Takeshi) used to be part of the LDP but broke with the LDP over the base issue and defeated the LDP candidate in 2014 with the backing of DPJ-SDP-OSMP-ORN-JCP.

In 2012 the election results where

                  Candidates       Won           Vote share
LDP                23                 16                38.55%
KP                    5                   5                10.83%
JIP                   2                   1                  1.83%    -> now ORA
PGOR               1                   1                  1.58%    -> merged into ORA
ORN                 9                  7                 13.16%
PNP                 1                   1                  1.54%     -> now merged into ORN
DPJ                  3                   1                  3.55%    -> now DP
OSMP               3                   3                  5.72%
SDP                 9                   8                 15.75%
JCP                  6                   5                   7.37%
Ind.                 1                   0                   0.12%

The ruling bloc of SDP-ORN-OMSP-DP-JCP has 24 of 48 seats.  LDP-KP and PGOR-ORA are aligned once in a while giving the ruling bloc a de facto majority plus the headache for LDP of a very independent KP.  The US base issue is clearly eroding the LDP and center-right vote.  Even as late as 2004 the center-right parties would win around 65% of the vote.  In 2012 it is down to 55% and most likely fall below 50% this time around.

In this upcoming election the ruling bloc, especially ORN, is making a big push to extend their majority on the back of the US base issue.  This seems possible if not likely but one can never underestimate the LDP at the local level and over-nomination by the ruling bloc might reduce their size of victory or perhaps lose their majority.  LDP, sensing the tide is against them, is a lot more conservative in its nomination strategy which could very well minimize their losses.  

In a boon for the ruling bloc is another case of an American associated with the base being arrested for the murder and rape of a local Okinawa women.  Abe is going overdrive in confronting the US government over this to prevent this from losing LDP its vote base.

[jaichind]

It is said that Abe will announce Wed a 2 year delay in the consumption tax increase.  Most likely this will mean a double election this summer.  Not sure what Abe did to get KP to go along with this.  KP up until now has been claiming credit to its supporters that it managed to change the consumption tax rates to exempt food.  Now with the entire tax increase delayed there is nothing to claim credit for.  Also it is said that KP does not have the resources to wage the Upper and Lower House elections at the same time.  We will see Wed what takes place.

[jaichind]

Tokyo (DPA) -- About 60 per cent of assemblywomen in Japan said they had been sexually harassed by voters, male colleagues and government officials, a poll conducted by Kyodo News agency showed Sunday.
The survey reported 59.2 per cent of the assemblywomen said they had unpleasant experiences due to "words and deeds stemming from misogyny," while 40.8 per cent said they had no such experiences. Male assemblymen intruded into their female colleagues' room at hotels during study tours and forcibly kissed them, some respondents told the Japnese new agency.
Some assemblywomen had their breasts and bottom touched by voters at parties and were forced to pour drinks for them in exchange for their votes, the report added.
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has said his government is working to create a "society in which all women shine."
Japan marks the 70th anniversary of women's suffrage this year. However, women held only 9.8 per cent of the prefectural assembly seats as of the end of 2015, the government said.

[jaichind]

Abe cabinet approval surges to mid 50s due to G7 summet. Not clear if this would last. Certainly it would embolden LDP to go for double election.

[jaichind]

(Bloomberg) --
Japan needs to delay increasing its sales tax until late 2019 to sustain its economic recovery, an aide to Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said Sunday. The move is likely trigger a general election.

The government will probably hold off raising the tax because it needs to give priority to economic growth, Abe aide Hakubun Shimomura said on Fuji television. Japan’s lower house of parliament would need to be dissolved for a general election if the planned increase is delayed again, Finance Minister Taro Aso was cited by Kyodo News as saying on Sunday at a meeting of the ruling party’s members.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

Do the Japanese literally have no other tax they can raise?