Japan 2016 - July 10

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Looks like DPJ and JIP will merge in March.  Possible names for the new party seems to be "New Democrats" or "Constitutional Democrats" 

There are enough parties in the world named 'New Democrats' or something similar. 'Constitutional Democrats' is good. It's memorable, and just the right amount of on-the-nose about what this party's raison d'etre would be.

I suppose it's good that Jiminto won't clear three hundred seats on its own or whatever other obscene result people have been expecting this summer, but it'll still be a real fracas and shame if Abe gets his revisionist supermajority in the Sangiin, one which I don't have faith this new party will be able to forestall.

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That DPJ-JIP merger is amazing lol.  Whatever it takes to stop Abe I guess.

I for one heartily support this united front of the useless squishy third way center-center-center-left and the flashy 'libertarian' hard right against the war crimes apologist hard right. Mainstream Japanese establishment conservatism ain't what it used to be, and what it used to be was never so great anyway.

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I thought NPD was center-left, not center-right.

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The center-right wing of DPJ which take a dim view of alliance with JCP by DPJ-JIP have mostly accepted it for now but is pushing for an alliance or at least tactical understanding with ORA.  The ORA itself is trying to rope in ARG (the JIP splinter 改革結集の会 recently got an official English name called Vision of Reform.)  So I guess I will start calling it VOR instead of ARG.  Anyway, various parts of DPJ and/or JIP are also working to bring VOR AEJ and other ex-YP independents into its Grand Alliance for the Upper House elections in the Summer. 

Good.

I can see most elements of the DPJIP grinning and bearing all this, but will the JCP and the ex-YPers grin and bear each other?

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Ozawa

THE RIDE NEVER ENDS

(seriously, it's terrible that the PLP is the least worst party)

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I think it's funny that the JIP are the ones proposing the name with the word 'progressive' in it. I like the DPJ's name better, mainly because I hate the word 'progressive'.

If we rank political ideas I detest the most it would be Taiwan Independence as number one followed closely by Welfare State as number two.

You know, the good work you do in curating threads like this does a great job distracting from what a massive HP you are. Just an observation.

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DPJ and JIP merged party will be called 民進黨 or DIP (Democratic Innovation Party) based on polls the DPJ and JIP did to see which name is more popular.  In theory 民進黨 should translate into Democratic Progressive Party but I guess JIP wanted the word Innovation in it.

Gross, but better than it could be.

Wikipedia also suggests the translation 'Popular Sentiment'. Personally I don't get that out of 民進 minshin but I can sort of see how they do. At the very least 'popular' is probably a better translation for 民 without 主 than 'democratic' is.

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jaichind, any chance Minshintō gets a logo or something unveiled soon? I'd like to put one in my signature.

(P.S. the official English name is just 'Democratic Party', which I think is stupid.)

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Interesting piece where Aki Abe (the PM's wife) throws some cold water on the idea of amending the LDP constitution to extend his time as LDP President and thus Prime Minister.

I always found the term limit on LDP Leaders to be curious. Koizumi probably would have stayed in office for at least another 4 years had he not been hamstrung by it, and it's not like Japanese PMs are known for being in office for an elongated period of time anyway.

There are talk that what Abe can do is to resign as PM when his term as LDP President is up in 2018 but then his successor is a puppet who will step down as LDP President after 6 months which will provoke another election which Abe will promptly win. It seems unlikely something obviously fishy will take place.

Abe: The Trujillo of the Pacific!

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His wife came out to defend him saying that she was responsible for his affairs for not being able to satisfy him at home.

Ugh. This is probably my absolute least favorite talking point in sexuality/relationship issues. Of course it's not Mrs. Ototake's fault that she thinks like this, if indeed she does really think like this.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

His wife came out to defend him saying that she was responsible for his affairs for not being able to satisfy him at home.

Ugh. This is probably my absolute least favorite talking point in sexuality/relationship issues. Of course it's not Mrs. Ototake's fault that she thinks like this, if indeed she does really think like this.

This is pretty standard in traditional Chinese societies, especially in places like HK or Taiwan Province.  Whatever the wife of a prominent personality might think their job is to publicly say stuff like this.

Yeah, I know it is; I've seen it before. It gives me the willies every time.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Latest poll in Hokkaido on Abe approval seems ominous for the Hokkaido 5th district by-election later this month.  It has Abe approval/disapproval at 40/58 which matches the August of 2015 at the peak of the Security Bill controversy 



The very high disapproval number should worry LDP.  LDP has to hope in the by-election and the Upper House elections in the Summer a good part of the 58% that disapprove of Abe are ORA/NPD supporters who will tactically vote for LDP to block JCP.  If not LDP is toast in the by-election and get a setback in the Upper House elections in Hokkaido. 

Freedom Prefecture!

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Ok so regarding the Hokkaido by-election, what's the color code for parties again ? It seems on some channels it's LDP in blue and DP in black, and on other channels it's LDP in red and DP in blue (aka retarded Murican media color code). So which is it ?

I think it's 'supposed' to be LDP in green and DP in blue, for whatever reason. It might get presented otherwise because green and blue are only sometimes separate colors in the Japanese language.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Does it say more about me or about the Japanese political class that I find Ozawa a lot less repugnant than I used to?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Founder and former leader of the defunct YP 辺 喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi) who will run on ORA's PR list has joined ORA.  This is totally absurd.  Back in late 2013 a faction of the YP wanted to form an formal alliance and eventual merger with the Hashimoto led JRP.  Watanabe was opposed to this move and as a result the pro-JRP bloc split out to form UP which formed an alliance with JRP.  In 2014 JRP and UP merged into JIP.  Now Watanabe has decided to join a Hashimoto rump party ORA.  BTW, the original UP gang mostly led by 江田 憲司(Eda Kenji) have since broken with Hashimoto and joined DP along with the rest of Hashimoto-less JIP.  So in late 2013 Eda wanted to be with Hashimoto over the objections of  Watanabe.  Now Watanabe want to be with Hashimoto after Eda broke with him.

Somebody needs to make a flow chart of all this.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Who was the last Governor of Tokyo who wasn't completely terrible?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Ugh. If the best chance for the opposition to do well in a given area is to tap into racist sentiment then I'd honestly rather the government win.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Probably for the best. Better a 2/3 Jiminto/Komeito majority than 3/4.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Predicting a stark government underperformance in the North makes a great deal of sense but the other things that would be required for those figures to shake out unfortunately don't so much.

Speaking of the North, can anybody explain why Aomori appears to be markedly more Jiminto-friendly in general than the other Northern prefectures? In 2009 Jiminto held the Hirosaki-based, Hachinohe-based, and Shimokita-to-Towada constituencies despite getting blown out almost everywhere else north of Tokyo. I've spent a significant amount of time in Aomori, during a House of Councillors election, and I still don't understand this.

Conversely, I'm also wondering if there's any non-Ozawa reason why Iwate is such an opposition stronghold, or if it's really just Ozawa having the prefecture bought and paid for.

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Abe is probably a better person than Sato Eisaku, so I won't shed tears for Sato's postwar record if Abe breaks it with a significantly reduced majority.

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Abe is probably a better person than Sato Eisaku, so I won't shed tears for Sato's postwar record if Abe breaks it with a significantly reduced majority.

I ask out of ignorance, not disagreement, but...what was wrong with Eisaku Sato? All I know about him is that he received the Nobel Peace Prize for refusing to allow nuclear weapons to be stationed in Japan (a position that I'm not particularly a fan of, but I can't imagine you agree with me on this).

He was a wife-beater.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Renhō's pretty great so I really hope she throws her hat in the ring.

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I do hope her image isn't sullied too early.

Isn't it sad that this is the first concern one has whenever anyone good runs for Governor of Tokyo now?

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damage control by trying to shift the topic to talk about Abenomics

ayy lmao

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It seems that  蓮舫 (Renhō)  will not run for Tokyo governor and instead focus on the Upper House elections.

I'd love to see her in a more prominent position, but it's good to see she's willing to take one for the team.

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Jesus Christ let him go away.