Japan 2016 - July 10

[jaichind]

Japan Upper House elections will be held in the early Summer of 2016.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japanese_House_of_Councillors_election,_2016

PM Abe could try to call a double election where the Lower House is dissolved and a Lower House election is held at the same time.  Abe seems to want to make the election about LDP-KP plus ORA getting 2/3 majority in both chambers and get a mandate for rewriting the Pacifist Constitution written by the Americans after WWII.  The double election would be to break the opposition parties financially and running on Constitutional change is a tactic to a) get what Abe always wanted b) break opposition unity where some in DPJ JIP and AEJ are actually for Constitutional change and c) keep the topic of political discussion away from the fact that the Abe economic revival agenda post 2012 is really not working.

[jaichind]

Parties in play

Ruling parties
自民 (LDP) Liberal Democratic Party - Big tent Center-Right party, strong in rural areas, machine party
公明 (KP) Komeito (Clean Government Party)- Centrist machine party strong in urban areas, based on Buddhist Soka Gakkai

Opposition parties
民主党(DPJ) Democratic Party - Center and Center-Left, stronger in urban areas, needs floating votes
共産 (JCP) Communist Party - Social Democratic, machine party strong in urban areas, hostile to KP
維新の党 (JIP) Japan Innovation Party - Center-Right opposition, made up of ex-DPJ ex-YP members
おおさか維新の会 (ORA) Osaka Restoration Association - Osaka based Right populist party, split from JIP.  Will support LDP-KP on an issue by issue basis, especially on Constitutional change.
社会民主党 (SDP) Social Democratic Party - former Socialist Party, mostly defunct
生活の党(PLP) People Life Party - Ozawa splinter of DPJ, mostly de facto Leftist Iwate regional party
改革結集の会 (ARG) Assembly Reform Grouping - JIP splinter made up of ex-LDP ex-YP members
日本のこころを大切にする党 (PJK) Party for Japanese Kokoro (The party that cares for Japan's heart) - Far right LDP splinter, getting close to being defunct  
新党改革 (NPR) New Party Renaissance - mostly defunct libertarian far right LDP splinter
日本を元気にする会 (AEJ) Assembly to Energize Japan - Partial successor to defunct Your Party (YP) which is LDP libertarian splinter
幸福実現党 (HRP) Happiness Realization Party - Based on Happiness Realization Party cult and has Far Right views.

Regional parties
沖縄社会大衆党 (OSMP) Okinawa Social Mass Party - Okinawa leftist regional anti-LDP opposition.  Pro-Okinawa autonomy  
政党そうぞう (PGOR) Political Group of Okinawa Revolution - Okinawa LDP splinter rightist regional party. Allied with ORA at the national level.
新党大地 (NPD) New Party Daichi - Hokkaido LDP splinter, has sifted Left and on and off ally of DPJ
減税日本(TCJ) Tax Cuts Japan - Aichi DPJ splinter, have shifted Libertarian populist Right, possible ally for ORA

[jaichind]

Professor of Sociology and Political Science 児玉克哉 (Kodama Katsuya) came out with projections of election results if there were a double election which is fairly negative for DPJ JIP.  He has

Upper House

Pro-Constitution Revision
LDP        68 (of which 20 PR) for a total of 131 
KP          11 (of which  7 PR)  for a total of  22
ORA         5 (of which  2 PR) for a total of   10
PCJM        0                          for a total of    3

Anti-Constitution Revision
DPJ        27 (of which 10 PR) for a total of  44
JIP           3 (of which   2 PR) for a total of   4
JCP          9 (of which   6 PR) for a total of  17
PLP          1 (of which   1 PR) for a total of   2
SDP         1 (of which   1 PR) for a total of   2
OSMP      1 (of which    0 PR) for a total of   2

Unknown position on Constitution Revision
AEJ         0                          for a total of    2

Which should give a easy 2/3 majority for Constitutional revision. 

For Lower House he projects

LDP             302       (230 District 72 PR)
KP                 37        (   9 District 28 PR)
ORA              15         (   6 District  9 PR)
PCJM              0
AEJ                0
DPJ               77        ( 39 District 38 PR)
JIP                11        (  3 District   8 PR)
PLP                 1        (  1 District   0 PR)
SDP                1        (  0 District   1 PR)
JCP               26        (  2 District  24 PR)

Which is very similar to 2014 with a small swing to LDP-KP and JIP and ORA losing out slightly from the JIP split. 

[jaichind]

The magazine 週刊文春 (Shukan Bunshun) came out with their own projections for Upper House elections which are somewhat more pro-DPJ than other media projections.  They have

LDP       41 District 17 PR = 58
KP          7  District   6 PR = 13
ORA       2 District    6 PR  =  8
PCJM      0 District    1 PR  =  1
AEJ        1 District    0 PR  =  1
NPR                                  =  0
DPJ       15 District   9 PR  = 24
JIP         1 District    1 PR   = 2
PLP        1 District    1 PR   = 2
SDP       0 District    1 PR   = 1
OSMP     1 District       PR   =1
JCP         3 District   6 PR   = 9
Ind         1 District             = 1  



It actually projected 2 seats for independents but I just assumed one of them must be OSMP.  I have no idea what the other one would be, most likely some sort of pro-DPJ independent running with support from JIP and/or JCP.

[jaichind]

Newspaper 毎日新聞 (Mainichi) came out with their own projections of a double election.



For Upper House it has

Upper House

Pro-Constitution Revision
LDP        63 (of which 18 PR) for a total of 128  
KP          14 (of which  7 PR)  for a total of  25
ORA         8 (of which  5 PR) for a total of   13
PCJM        0                          for a total of    3

Anti-Constitution Revision
DPJ        23 (of which   9 PR) for a total of  40
JIP           1 (of which   1 PR) for a total of   2
JCP          8 (of which   7 PR) for a total of  16
PLP          1 (of which   0 PR) for a total of   2
SDP         1 (of which   1 PR) for a total of   2
OSMP      1 (of which    0 PR) for a total of   2

Unknown position on Constitution Revision
AEJ         0                          for a total of    2

A easy 2/3 majority for LDP+KP+ORA+PCJM



Then we have Lower House election projections


LDP             301       (225 District 76 PR)
KP                 34        (   8 District 26 PR)
ORA              23         (   7 District 16 PR)
PCJM              0
AEJ                0
DPJ               75        ( 39 District 36 PR)
JIP                  5        (  3 District   2 PR)
PLP                 3        (  2 District   1 PR)
SDP                2        (  1 District   1 PR)
JCP               23        (  1 District  22 PR)
ARG                1        ( 1 District    0 PR)

To some extent this project is more depression to the opposition.  It seems to project LDP-KP vote PR share to be around 50%-51%  from 46.8% in 2014 and 48.9% in 2013.  It seems that given the limited gains LDP got in FPTP seats despite this vote share was limited because DPJ-JIP are expected to have good tactically alliances.  So this projection says that so much of the JIP base has gone over to ORA that even a DPJ-JIP-SDD-PLP with outside support from JCP will still get steamrolled by LDP-KP.

These results seems contrary to what the implied vote shares of LDP-KP will get based on the NHK poll so we will have to see.  One thing is for sure, even if this poll exaggerates the size of the LDP-KP vote share, unless DPJ JIP and JCP find a way to have alliances across the board the LDP-KP-ORA+PCJM will have a 2/3 majority in the Upper House given the LDP likely sweep of the single members districts.  T 

It is interesting that all polls seems to indicate that a majority of the voting population seems to be opposed to changing Article 9 but it seems  that this upcoming election will give a clear mandate for such a change.  If these were the results then Abe will go down as one of the if not the most powerful and impact PMs in postwar Japan.  Most of his policies for economic and demographic revival are going nowhere but it seems his real goal of changing the Constitution is likely to be realized.

[jaichind]

One "Mrs Kazuko" (和子夫人) who is a pretty famous political forecaster and known for calling the 2009 election results almost spot on came out with her projections (which includes vote shares for each district.)  Her projections for 2010 and 2013 elections were more off the mark.  Summery of her projections are

            District      PR        Total
LDP         39          17          56
KP            7            7           14
ORA         5            6            11
JIP            0            1             1
DPJ         19          10           29
SDP          0            1             1
PLP          1             0             1
OSMP       1            0              1
JCP           1            6             7

Which is fairly favorable for ORA.  It seems to assume that ORA will capture the majority of the JIP vote base and also eat into part of the LDP vote base and do better than expected outside of Osaka.  It also assumes ORA beat out JCP in various ORA-JCP marginals where ORA and JCP are fighting for the last seat after LDP-KP captured their seats.  It also seems to assume a partial alliance between JIP, DPJ, and JCP which will manage get the DPJ a few more district seats.  

Her district by district prediction are

                                              Prediction
北海道Hokkaido         3             LDP DPJ DPJ   
青森   Aomori             1             LDP                                 
岩手   Iwate               1             PLP         
宮城   Miyagi               1             DPJ       
秋田   Akita                1             LDP                                 
山形   Yamagata         1             LDP                                 
福島   Fukushima       1             DPJ                             
茨城   Ibaraki             2             LDP DPJ                           
栃木   Tochigi             1             LDP                                 
群馬   Gunma            1             LDP                                 
埼玉   Saitama           3             LDP KP DPJ                       
千葉   Chiba               3             LDP LDP DPJ                     
神奈川Kanagawa       4              LDP KP DPJ Pro-ORA independent               
山梨   Yamanashi       1             LDP         
東京   Tokyo              6             LDP LDP KP DPJ JCP ORA
新潟   Niigata             1             DPJ                                 
富山   Toyama            1             LDP                                 
石川   Ishikawa           1             LDP                                 
福井   Fukui                1             LDP                                 
長野   Nagano             1             DPJ                             
岐阜   Gifu                  1             LDP                                 
静岡   Shizuoka           2             LDP DPJ                           
愛知   Aichi                 4             LDP KP DPJ DPJ               
三重   Mie                   1             DPJ                               
滋賀   Shiga                1             LDP         
京都   Kyoto                2             LDP DPJ     
大阪   Osaka               4             LDP KP ORA ORA                 
兵庫   Hyōgo               3             LDP KP ORA       
奈良   Nara                 1             LDP                                 
和歌山Wakayama       1             LDP                                 
鳥取 Tottori                 
島根   Shimane           1             LDP                                 
岡山   Okayama          1             LDP           
広島   Hiroshima         2             LDP DPJ   
山口   Yamaguchi        1             LDP                                 
徳島   Tokushima   
高知   Kōchi                1             LDP                                 
香川   Kagawa            1             LDP                                 
愛媛   Ehime              1             LDP                                 
福岡   Fukuoka           3             LDP KP DPJ                     
佐賀   Saga                1             LDP                                 
長崎   Nagasaki           1             LDP                                 
熊本   Kumamoto        1             LDP                                 
大分   Ōita                  1             DPJ             
宮崎   Miyazaki           1             LDP                                 
鹿児島Kagoshima       1             LDP                                 
沖縄   Okinawa           1             OSMP         

[jaichind]

The magazine 週刊文春 (Shukan Bunshun) which came out with Upper House election projections earlier also came out with Lower House election projections in case of a double election.  It has

・LDP (自民党)　292→285
・DPJ (民主党)　72→78
・KP (公明党)　35→31
・JIP (維新の党)　21→4
・JCP (共産党)　21→24
・ORA (大阪維新の会)　13→39
・Others (その他)　20→14

LDP actually won 290 seats election night of 2014, but 2 pro-LDP independents joined LDP afterwards (in both cases two pro-LDP candidates ran as independents and the winner is acknowledged retroactively as the LDP candidate).  2 PFG winners of 2014 also joined LDP and are shoe-ins for re-election so LDP is really 294->285.  This projection gives LDP+KP 316 which is just below 2/3.  But ORA will be able to join up with LDP+KP for a 2/3 majority for constitutional change.    These projections also indicate that ORA being able to project itself as a pure Osaka regional party  is pretty much able to sweep Osaka districts while JIP 2014 vote base would have either gone to ORA or DPJ leaving not much remaining.

[jaichind]

Abe ally and Economic minster 甘利明 (Amari Akira) had to resign amid a cash-for-favors scandal but all polls seems to indicate that this did not hurt Abe and that Abe Cabinet approval is heading up above 50% even as a small majority was opposed to constitutional change. 

[jaichind]

The election blog go2senkyo.com came out with their projections of Upper House elections



They talked about regional breakdowns which I was able to put below.  They envision LDP sweeping all 1-seat districts except Iwate (PLP) and Okinawa (OSMP independent), just like 2013.  In the 2 seat districts it will be LDP and DPJ except for Kyoto where JCP will beat out DPJ just like 2013.  In Kanagawa they see a LDP backing an ex-YP independent incumbent MP to take the third seat out of the 4 seat district keeping DPJ to one.    They also see AEJ beating out ORA and DPJ for the sixth seat in Tokyo even though the AEJ candidate will run as an independent.   They also see JCP beating out ORA in Osaka for the 4th seat to prevent a all right wing complete sweep of Osaka's 4 seats.

                                               Prediction
北海道Hokkaido         3             LDP LDP DPJ  
青森   Aomori             1             LDP                                  
岩手   Iwate               1             PLP          
宮城   Miyagi               1             LDP      
秋田   Akita                1             LDP                                  
山形   Yamagata         1             LDP                                
福島   Fukushima       1             LDP                              
茨城   Ibaraki             2             LDP DPJ                            
栃木   Tochigi             1             LDP                                  
群馬   Gunma            1             LDP                                  
埼玉   Saitama           3             LDP KP DPJ                      
千葉   Chiba               3             LDP LDP DPJ                    
神奈川Kanagawa       4              LDP KP DPJ Pro-LDP independent              
山梨   Yamanashi       1             LDP        
東京   Tokyo              6             LDP LDP KP DPJ JCP AEJ
新潟   Niigata             1             LDP                                  
富山   Toyama            1             LDP                                  
石川   Ishikawa           1             LDP                                  
福井   Fukui                1             LDP                                  
長野   Nagano             1             LDP                              
岐阜   Gifu                  1             LDP                                  
静岡   Shizuoka           2             LDP DPJ                            
愛知   Aichi                 4             LDP KP DPJ DPJ                
三重   Mie                   1             LDP                                
滋賀   Shiga                1             LDP        
京都   Kyoto                2             LDP JCP    
大阪   Osaka               4             LDP KP ORA JCP                  
兵庫   Hyōgo               3             LDP KP ORA      
奈良   Nara                 1             LDP                                  
和歌山Wakayama       1             LDP                                  
鳥取 Tottori                
島根   Shimane           1             LDP                                
岡山   Okayama          1             LDP          
広島   Hiroshima         2             LDP DPJ    
山口   Yamaguchi        1             LDP                                  
徳島   Tokushima  
高知   Kōchi                1             LDP                                  
香川   Kagawa            1             LDP                                  
愛媛   Ehime              1             LDP                                  
福岡   Fukuoka           3             LDP KP DPJ                      
佐賀   Saga                1             LDP                                  
長崎   Nagasaki           1             LDP                                
熊本   Kumamoto        1             LDP                                
大分   Ōita                  1             LDP            
宮崎   Miyazaki           1             LDP                                  
鹿児島Kagoshima       1             LDP                                  
沖縄   Okinawa           1             OSMP          


This along with PR section gives us

              PR seat      District seats         Total
LDP             19               46                    65
KP                 7                7                     14
DPJ             10               12                     22
SDP              0                 0                      0
PLP              0                  1                      1
JIP               0                  0                      0
ORA             5                  2                      7
JCP              7                  3                    10
AEJ              0                  1                      1
OSMP                               1                      1

I included the pro-LDP Independent with the LDP

This projection gives LDP-KP 79 versus 76 in the 2013 landslide PLUS ORA getting 7 seats in a complete center-right revisionist sweep.    By the PR vote seats distribution it would seam that LDP-KP would win around 50% of the vote and ORA around 10% of the vote.   It projects that DPJ-JIP-JCP alliance really goes nowhere on the ground since their respective voting blocs are mutually hostile.

[jaichind]

甘利明 (Akira Amari) and close ally of Abe had to resign as Economic Revitalization Minister over a funding scandal.  What is interesting is that because Abe and Amari seems to handle this quickly Abe's rating actually went up.  I guess there is no stopping the Abe LDP-KP machine. 

This state of affairs seems imply that chances are high of a double election. KP in theory against this so Abe might hold a lower house election a month BEFORE or AFTER the July 2016 Upper House elections as a "workaround" of KP objections.

In the meantime, the battle for available incumbent defectors continues.  2 YP Upper House MPs that never joined AEJ are 水野賢一 (Mizuno Ken'ichi) of 千葉(Chiba) and 中西健治 (Kenji Nakanishi)  of 神奈川(Kanagawa).  Both are up for reelection.  Mizuno has joined DPJ who will most likely nominate him as their second Chiba candidate.  DPJ only has the votes to win 1 of 3 Chiba seats but it does not hurt to try out Mizuno to see how much of the old YP vote base he can capture and get lucky against the 2 LDP candidates.  Kenji will run as an independent supported by the LDP in the 4 seat  Kanagawa district.  In theory in Kanagawa there are votes for LDP and KP to win one each followed by DPJ and JCP to win on each.  What the LDP is hoping for is that SDP PLP and ORA might all get into the act and split the non-LDP vote in such a way that  Kenji as a LDP ally will win the third seat over JCP or DPJ with the old YP vote base.  I good part of the Japanese political discussion boards seems to feel this will work while I do not think it will.  I noticed that in multi-member districts the personal vote (incumbent) factor is lower  and that vote distribution follow partisan alignments.  In which case the DPJ and JCP base is such so that they should survive this with one seat each, especially if ORA runs and splits the old YP vote base.

[jaichind]

Time for a projection update from me.  Since December 2015 things have gone from bad to worse for the opposition.  First the various DPJ JCP proposed alliances gone no where, other than 熊本  (Kumamoto) where the LDP will win no matter what, the only other DPJ JCP alliance is in 沖縄   (Okinawa) but that alliance was on even back in 2013 and 2014.  The on again and off again DPJ-JIP alliance/merger talks also served to discredit both.  JCP's talk about alliance with DPJ followed by it falling apart also serves to weaken the JCP vote share.  The winners here are LDP-KP, ORA, and in isolated places various post-YP outfits like AEJ.  Now it seems the LDP-KP will win a landslide similar to that of 2013 with the difference that ORA will replace JRP of the 2013 Upper House elections as an even more hardliner hawk opposition party.


                                               Prediction
北海道Hokkaido         3              LDP LDP DPJ  
青森   Aomori             1             LDP                                  
岩手   Iwate               1             PLP          
宮城   Miyagi               1             LDP      
秋田   Akita                1             LDP                                  
山形   Yamagata         1             LDP                                
福島   Fukushima       1              LDP                              
茨城   Ibaraki             2             LDP DPJ                            
栃木   Tochigi             1             LDP                                  
群馬   Gunma            1              LDP                                  
埼玉   Saitama           3             LDP KP DPJ                      
千葉   Chiba               3             LDP LDP DPJ                    
神奈川Kanagawa       4               LDP KP DPJ JCP          
山梨   Yamanashi       1             LDP        
東京   Tokyo              6             LDP LDP KP DPJ JCP DPJ
新潟   Niigata             1             LDP                                  
富山   Toyama            1             LDP                                  
石川   Ishikawa           1             LDP                                  
福井   Fukui                1             LDP                                  
長野   Nagano             1             LDP                              
岐阜   Gifu                  1             LDP                                  
静岡   Shizuoka           2             LDP DPJ                            
愛知   Aichi                 4             LDP KP DPJ DPJ                
三重   Mie                   1             LDP                                
滋賀   Shiga                1             LDP        
京都   Kyoto                2             LDP JCP    
大阪   Osaka               4             LDP KP ORA ORA                  
兵庫   Hyōgo               3             LDP KP ORA      
奈良   Nara                 1             LDP                                  
和歌山Wakayama       1              LDP                                  
鳥取 Tottori                
島根   Shimane           1             LDP                                
岡山   Okayama          1             LDP          
広島   Hiroshima         2             LDP DPJ    
山口   Yamaguchi        1             LDP                                  
徳島   Tokushima  
高知   Kōchi                1             LDP                                  
香川   Kagawa            1             LDP                                  
愛媛   Ehime              1             LDP                                  
福岡   Fukuoka           3             LDP KP DPJ                      
佐賀   Saga                1             LDP                                  
長崎   Nagasaki           1             LDP                                
熊本   Kumamoto        1             LDP                                
大分   Ōita                  1             LDP            
宮崎   Miyazaki           1             LDP                                  
鹿児島Kagoshima       1             LDP                                  
沖縄   Okinawa           1             OSMP          

The collapse of DPJ-JCP alliance plans means that winnable places such as 山形(Yamagata) (where DPJ will run a popular former DPJ incumbant), 福島(Fukushima), 山梨(Yamanashi), 三重(Mie), and 長野(Nagano) would be lost.  Also multi-member districts like 北海道(Hokkaido) and 大阪(Osaka) the DPJ or JCP will lose on getting the last available seat to LDP or ORA due to lack of tactical voting on the ground.

This along with PR section gives us

          Vote share     PR seat      District seats         Total
LDP       33.0%          16               46                       62
KP         13.5%            7                7                       14
DPJ        22.0%          11              13                       24
SDP        2.5%             1                0                        1
PLP         2.0%             1                1                        2
JIP          4.0%             2                0                        2
ORA        8.0%             4                3                        7
PJK         0.75%           0                0                         0
JCP       12.5%             6                4                       10
AEJ         0.75%           0                0                        0
OSMP                                           1                        1

On varies Japanese political discussions board, the medium guess at the district is pretty much my projection with the exception of 神奈川(Kanagawa).  There I project JCP winning the last of 4 seats whereas the the discussion board members are convinced that the LDP backed former YP incumbent 中西健治 (Kenji Nakanishi) will win one as a LDP backed independent beating out JCP.  They base their projection on the weakened state of JCP after the collapse of alliance talks with DPJ.  I base my projection of JCP winning the last seat on some DPJ tactical voting and the ORA candidate will split the non-LDP center-right vote that Kenji will count on.

Looking at the various Japanese political discussion board projections it seems what is still "up for grabs" are

1) Still some hope of DPJ-JCP de facto alliance in 福島(Fukushima) so there is some chance that DPJ might win.
2) Some chance in 2 seat 茨城(Ibaraki) that DPJ is such bad shape that ORA might win the second seat from DPJ.  I view this as very unlikely.
3)  Still some hope of DPJ-JCP de facto alliance in 山梨(Yamanashi) so there is some chance that DPJ might win.
4) In 6 seats 東京(Tokyo), it is clear that it will be LDP LDP DPJ KP JCP for the first 5 seats.  The 6th and final seat could be won by DPJ (most likely) or ORA or AEJ.  The view is that ORA and AEJ will split the non-LDP Right vote giving it to DPJ.  But Tokyo has been trending Right for a few election cycles now so either ORA or the AEJ incumbent might win.  
5) In 4 seats 愛知(Aichi) it is clear it will be LDP KP DPJ for the first three.  The last seat could be won by DPJ (most likely) or JCP or ORA.  Aichi is an old DPJ stronghold and DPJ did well here in 2014 based on a DPJ-JIP alliance.   The view is that the regional Right Libertarian DPJ splinter TCJ might throw enough of the old DPJ base to ORA for ORA to win or for JCP to sneak through.  
6) Still some hope of DPJ-JCP de facto alliance in 三重(Mie) so there is some chance that DPJ might win.
7) In 4 seat 大阪(Osaka) it seems obvious that the first 3 seats will be LDP KP ORA.  The last seat could be ORA (most likely) or JCP or even DPJ (very unlikely.)  JCP used to be strong here and should be able to win a 4th seat.  But recent weakness in JCP and even weaker DPJ insistence on running a candidate to split the center-right vote will most likely throw the 4th seat to ORA who is really gaining ground in Osaka as THE Osaka regional party.  If JCP's base can hold up then perhaps it can win.    
8 ) Some chance in 2 seat 広島(Hiroshima) that ORA might win the second seat from DPJ given that the ORA candidate has deep roots and personally popular.  I find this still unlikely.

On the PR section the discussion board consensus is more optimistic on LDP and ORA.

This gives the Japanese discussion board medium guess (I added the pro-LDP independent winner Kenji under LDP)

          Vote share     PR seat      District seats         Total
LDP       34.5%          17               47                       64
KP         13.5%            7                7                       14
DPJ        19.5%          10              13                       23
SDP        2.5%             1                0                        1
PLP         1.5%             0                1                        1
JIP          2.5%             1                0                        1
ORA       11.5%            6                3                        9
PJK         1.0%            0                0                         0
JCP       12.0%             6                1                        7
AEJ         0.5%            0                0                        0
OSMP                                           1                        1

[jaichind]

One interesting thing about the Upper House redistricting from 2013 to 2016 is that it drove a shift in the balance of power from DPJ to KP.  The reason is the redistricting greatly reduced the number of 2 seat districts and created a bunch of 3- 4- seat districts.  

In 2013 we have 10 2- seat districts, 3 3- seat districts, 2 4- seat districts, and 1 5- seat districts
In 2016 we have 4 2- seat districts 5 3- seat districts 3 4- seat districts, and 1 6- seat districts.

The general rule of thumb in the LDP-KP alliance is that KP will ask for a seat for sure in 4- seat districts and above and will ask for a seat sometimes for 3- seat districts.  And KP always seems to win.  So in 2013 KP contested and won in 4 districts (the 1 3- seat district, 2 4- seat districts, and 1 5- seat districts.)  But in 2016 KP will contest and win in 7 districts  (3 3- seat districts, 3 4- seat districts, and 1 6- districts) because there are just more available 3- districts and above than 2013.  So the number of KP seats will surge from 2013

Likewise, DPJ tends to win a seat (or has a good chance) in 2 seats districts as LDP tends to be conservative in 2- seat districts and DPJ tends to have the second largest voting bloc after LDP-KP and will then win the second seat.  In 2013 DPJ won 7 second seats out of the 10 2- seat districts and losing 2 of the remaining 3 in close races.  With the non-LDP center-right parities split this year between ORA AEJ and JIP and with JIP in an alliance with DPJ the DPJ would be in a good position to sweep the second seat in the 2- seat districts.  But with the number of 2- seat districts going down (many becoming 1- seat districts)  DPJ will lose out relative to 2013.  Any DPJ gains this year are because of growth in its vote share due to alliance with what remains of JIP vote base and not from structural reasons which are going against DPJ.  

[jaichind]

There seems to be a deadlock between DPJ and JIP over merger plans mostly within DPJ



There seems to be 3 possible paths.  

1) DPJ and JIP both dissolve and merge into a new party
2) JIP merge into DPJ

With Center-Right factions of DPJ preferring a) and center-Left factions of DPJ preferring b).   What might take place could be option

3) DPJ Right merge with JIP into a new Centrist party.  DPJ Left and this New Party contest separately in the 2016 election which would get a sense of the relative strength of the two parties (Rump Left DPJ and new Centrist party) which would then set the terms of the merger of these two parties after the 2016 elections.

What a mess.  All this will just add to the LDP-KP argument: "There is no Alternative."

[jaichind]

Latest NHK poll for party support has



Which is

LDP    37.6
KP       3.6
ORA     1.6
PJK      0.2
JIP       0.8
DPJ      9.6
SDP      0.2

LDP+KP at 41.2.  My rule of thumb is that LDP+KP will get around 2% greater than its NHK poll and DPJ will get around double the NHK poll.  Which would put LDP-KP at 43.2% and DPJ at around 19%.  The view in the political blog space seems to be given the sad situation of the opposition parities LDP-KP will get more than 43.2% on PR, more like 47%-50% although many do expect DPJ to get around 18%-20% as the center-left part of the JIP vote base most likely migrate to DPJ.

[jaichind]

Other parts of Kinki are being "Osaka-ized".  In 八幡市(Yawata) of Kyodo prefecture where it is equidistant between Kyodo and Osaka, there was an election for mayor and a by-election for the city council.  ORA did very well in both where it grew its vote share significantly.

One can compare the 2014 PR vote and then compare it to the Feb 2016 elections to see ORA's growth.

Yawata's 2014 PR vote

JIP　  6486　22.00％
LDP 　8590　29.14％
JCP 　4514　15.31％
DPJ 　4981　16.90％
KP  　3480　11.81％
PFG  　499　 1.69％
SDP  　471　 1.60％
PLP   　320　1.09％
HRP  　136　0.46％

In the City Council by-election it was

ORA　7449　31.61%  elected
LDP　7150　30.34%   elected
JCP 　4865　20.64%
DPJ 　4105　17.42%

If we count 2014 LDP and 2014 KP as the LDP base, 2014 JIP, 2014 PFG, and 2014 HRP as the ORA base, and  2014 DPJ, 2014 SDP and 2014 PLP as DPJ base we can compute how the vote shifted

ORA          7121 -> 7449  rise of 4.6%
LDP         12070 -> 7150 fall  of 40.8%
JCP           4514 -> 4865  rise of 7.8%
DPJ           5772 -> 4105  fall of 28.9%

So it is clear that JCP is eating away at the DPJ base while ORA is taking votes away from LDP.  ORA's surge is extra impressive since not all of the 2014 JIP vote are really transferable to ORA as some of them are really the centrist anti-LDP which given the choice between ORA and DPJ will go DPJ.

In the mayor race it is

13538　Incumbent (backed by LDP+KP+DPJ)
 6194   ORA
 3941   JCP

Here the incumbent affect pushed votes to the incumbent but it is clear that ORA is gaining strength in parts of Kinki outside of Osaka.

In the 2- seats Upper House district of Kyodo the assumption has been that it will be DPJ vs JCP for the second seat.  Now it seems it will be a 3 way race between DPJ, JCP and ORA for the second seat and perhaps ORA has the upper hand.  In 2014 Yawata had a JIP lean of +4 relative to the rest of Kyodo.  This means in a very low turnout election ORA could win 27% of the vote in Kyodo which should be enough to beat DPJ and JCP.

[jaichind]

Average of Abe approval (in Blue) has him back up to around 50% which is where he was in May 2015 when this whole Security Bill issue started.   It is also around the same as late 2014 which means that if an election were held today LDP-KP will most likely replicate is 46.5% PR vote share performance of the 2014 Lower House election if turnout stays low.  Only hope for DPJ led opposition is for turnout to rise.

[jaichind]

There will be 2 Lower House by-elections 4/24.  One is 北海道 (Hokkaido) 5th district where the LDP incumbent passed away and the other 京都 (Kyoto) 3rd district where the LDP incumbent resigned due to a sex scandal.  How well the LDP does in these 2 elections will determine if Abe goes ahead with the double election in the summer.  In Hokkaido 5th DPJ has a chance if it forms an alliance with JIP.  Problem is in Hokkaido the local DPJ and local JIP are at each other throats and it is not clear an alliance is possible without triggering defections to the LDP. There are also talks between DPJ and JCP for a joint candidate as well.  In Kyoto 3rd, the LDP will have to decide if they even want to field a candidate given the negative trend against the LDP due to the sex scandal.  KP will have to make a call to back LDP or not given this negative trend.  There are talks between DPJ and JCP to back a joint candidate and there are also talks on the LDP side to see if they will back a ORA candidate.  The old DPJ incumbent who is fairly popular in the district will for sure run and ORA will run a candidate for sure as it tries to grow its base in the Kinki region.

So there will be 5 models of how the  Kyoto 3rd by-election will go

a)
DPJ
LDP (backed by KP)
ORA
JCP

b)
DPJ
LDP (KP neutral and asks its supports to vote their conscious) 
ORA
JCP

c)
DPJ (backed by JCP)
LDP (backed by KP)
ORA

d)
DPJ (backed by JCP)
ORA (backed by LDP-KP)

e)
DPJ
ORA (backed by LDP-KP)
JCP

[jaichind]

For 北海道 (Hokkaido) 5th district the LDP will nominate the son-in-law of the old LDP incumbent that passed away hoping to take advantage of the personal network of the deceased LDP MP as well as try to take advantage of the sympathy factor.  The DPJ managed to get JIP and SDP to back its candidate who is 池田真紀 (Maki Ikeda), who was fairly famous child actress years ago.  I am surprised that DPJ got JIP to back her.  In 2014 Lower House elections DPJ-JIP had a partial alliance in Hokkaido where the 2nd district was allocated to the JIP but Maki ran as a DPJ rebel and split the anti-LDP vote sinking the JIP candidate chances at winning.  Even though the JIP candidate won on the PR slate it took one seat away from JIP and help to create tension between DPJ and JIP in Hokkaido.  Anyway JIP seems to  agree to back her in the by-election.  JCP nominated a candidate as well but there will be talks between DPJ and JCP to see if JCP could be convinced to withdraw its candidate. If JCP does withdraw then there is a chance for DPJ to win this seat.

[jaichind]

Abe announced that there will be no double election this summer.  I guess he got spooked by all the various LDP scandals that popped out last month.

[jaichind]

Not confirmed officially yet, but it seems the Center-Right win of DPJ won out.  DPJ and JIP will both dissolve and merge a new party.  One compromise would be the name of the new party will contain the work "Democratic."  Not clear that the DPJ grassroots would accept this or when this merger will take place.

[jaichind]

It seems that what the LDP-KP will run on as well as what the DPJ-JIP+JCP+SDP+PLP will run on are not that popular.  A majority does not support a 2/3 majority for LDP-KP + ORA to push for Constitutional revision. But a near majority are against the DPJ-JIP+JCP+PLP appeal to repeal the new Security Law.   It seems while a majority opposed the new Security Law most people want to just move on and not re-fight this.

[jaichind]

Looks like DPJ and JIP will merge in March.  Possible names for the new party seems to be "New Democrats" or "Constitutional Democrats" 

[jaichind]

The DPJ-JIP merger deal to create a new party dedicated to preserving the pacifist constitution also seems to have helped to restart DPJ-JCP talks on unified candidates for 1- seat districts.  It seems JCP will announce soon a bunch of withdrawals in key DPJ-LDP marginals.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Looks like DPJ and JIP will merge in March.  Possible names for the new party seems to be "New Democrats" or "Constitutional Democrats" 

There are enough parties in the world named 'New Democrats' or something similar. 'Constitutional Democrats' is good. It's memorable, and just the right amount of on-the-nose about what this party's raison d'etre would be.

I suppose it's good that Jiminto won't clear three hundred seats on its own or whatever other obscene result people have been expecting this summer, but it'll still be a real fracas and shame if Abe gets his revisionist supermajority in the Sangiin, one which I don't have faith this new party will be able to forestall.

[Asian Nazi]

That DPJ-JIP merger is amazing lol.  Whatever it takes to stop Abe I guess.