Japan 2016 - July 10

[Vega]

I would say that this was a good night for the Opposition. This result was the same as 2014, but with Opposition forces combined, it shows how much can be done.

[jaichind]

There is already news that ORA will be having an internal debate on the name of he party.  The setback in Kyodo plus problems with TCJ merger talks is leading to some within the party to advocate for a name change.  Problem is that the Hashimoto core in Osaka is most likely going to oppose this.  So basically this is just a micro version of the JIP split back in July 2015 between the Osaka bloc vs Tokyo bloc.  I guess ORA has to worry about keeping its Osaka base against the local LDP which would stop at nothing (including an alliance with JCP) to take it down and at the same time try to expand outside Osaka.

[Derpist]

If you reran the 2014 election except you pooled together all of the DP/JCP vote - and added in the JIP vote from outside of Osaka, what would the seat breakout be?

Because that's what you seem to suggest a snap election would resemble.

[jaichind]

Kyodo 3rd district by-election exit polls



LDP only 28% of the voters which is small and of course a result of no LDP candidate running.  As expected LDP voters split their vote between DP ORA and PJK.   DP which is 23% of the electorate and JCP which is 7% of the voters of course went to DP.   ORA which was 8% of the voters as usual went for ORA.   Many of 28% of the voters of the unaligned are really DP voters are as expected went DP.

[jaichind]

I would say that this was a good night for the Opposition. This result was the same as 2014, but with Opposition forces combined, it shows how much can be done.

All things equal I would agree.  There were several special factors going on in Hokkaido 5th which might make the results harder to justify extrapolating to the rest of Japan but I believe they will most likely cancel each other out.  Namely:

1) The old LDP incumbant 町村 信孝(Machimura Nobutaka) was actually a powerful faction leader (the same faction that Abe is from in fact.)  Given his power within the LDP it is very likely that his vote in 2014 was artificially high since he was effective in bring home the pork.

2) Machimura passed away in 2015 and his son-in-law ran on the LDP ticket.  The sympathy factor most likely boosted the LDP vote. 

3) As I mentioned before NPD went from backing DPJ in 2014 to backing LDP to 2016 which must have swung some votes toward LDP.

Most likely 1) canceled out 2) and 3) so the net narrative that DP-JCP alliance will retain the DP and JCP vote shares is still fairly valid.  But out of these factors 3) is the more problematic one for Abe/LDP.  3) was necessary, in retrospect, for LDP to win and indeed do well in Hokkaido in any future election.  But the negative image of NPD will wear down on LDP's image in the rest of Japan especially when most of the mideeds of NDP leader 鈴木 宗男(Suzuki Muneo) took place while he was in the LDP pre-2005.  Having Suzuki part of the LDP alliance brings back bad memories of the "Old LDP."

[jaichind]

Time for an update on DP-PLP-SDP-JCP grand alliance deals.  Over the last couple of weeks deals were reached in

岩手(Iwate), 秋田(Akita),  群馬(Gunma), and 岡山(Okayama).    Of this Akita is most consequential as it puts it in play but it still leans LDP. Iwate was leaning PLP anyway but this deal makes it a lock.  Rest will still go LDP deal or no deal.



青森(Aomori) - DP candidate -> solid LDP
岩手(Iwate) - PLP candidate -> soild PLP
宮城(Miyagi) - DP candidate -> tossup/lean LDP
秋田(Akita) - DP candidate -> tossup/lean LDP
山形(Yamagata) - center-left independent (former DPJ MP) -> tossup
栃木(Tochigi) - center-left independent -> solid LDP
群馬(Gunma) - DP candidate -> solid LDP
新潟(Niigata) - PLP candidate -> tossup/lean LDP
富山(Toyama)- center-left independent -> LDP landslide
石川(Ishikawa) - center-left independent -> LDP landslide
福井(Fukui) - center-left independent -> LDP landslide
山梨(Yamanashi) - DP candidate -> tossup
長野(Nagano) - DP candidate -> tossup/lean DP
滋賀(Shiga) - DP candidate -> tossup
鳥取(Tottori/
島根(Shimane) - center-left independent -> LDP landslide
岡山(Okayama) - DP candidate -> Solid LDP
山口(Yamaguchi) - center-left independent -> LDP landslide
徳島(Tokushima)/
高知(Kōchi) - center-left independent -> solid LDP
愛媛(Ehime) - center-left independent -> LDP landlide
長崎(Nagasaki) - DP candidate -> LDP landslide
熊本(Kumamoto) - center-left independent -> LDP landslide
宮崎(Miyazaki) - center-left independent -> LDP landslide
沖縄(Okinawa) - OSMP candidate -> lean OSMP

The most critical ones left to get a deal on are 福島(Fukushima) (rumor is that a deal is close), 三重(   Mie) (this one is most difficult as the local DP branch is fairly hostile to JCP), and 大分(Ōita).  A deal in the first two makes them tossup/lean DP and a deal in the third on makes it tossup.

[jaichind]

If you reran the 2014 election except you pooled together all of the DP/JCP vote - and added in the JIP vote from outside of Osaka, what would the seat breakout be?

Because that's what you seem to suggest a snap election would resemble.

Yes, the magazine  週刊現代 or Shūkan Gendai (Modern Weekly) did this fairly recently.  What it did was for 2014 JIP candidates that joined ORA they do not count those votes to the opposition alliance vote share and for those 2014 JIP candidates that joined DP they count those votes for the opposition alliance.  This is a very close proxy to all 2014 JIP votes in Osaka for ORA and all JIP votes outside Osaka for DP.  See below for a post I had on this a few days ago.

It comes out to LDP-KP at 257 out of 475 seats for a bare majority.  My main critique of this approach is that it just does a brain-dead adding up of votes from 2014 instead of a dynamic approach to try to  model how the 2014 JIP vote might flow, what is a likely swing away from LDP-KP since 2014, and what JCP alliance might have on DP votes defecting to LDP as well as anti-DP JCP voters staying home.

But as unsophisticated this model was, it worked for Hokkaido 5th district.  This model would still project a close LDP victory since in 2014 the LDP candidate barely won above 50% of the vote which is indeed what took place in the by-election.

Magazine 週刊現代 or Shūkan Gendai (Modern Weekly) Business came out with their projection on what a double election would look like.  It seems fairly negative on LDP's chances based on successful DP-JCP alliance, a swing away from LDP-KP, and ORA mostly being a dud outside of Osaka with anti-LDP votes consolidating around DP.  It has



Which would translate into for Lower House where LDP-KP would be reduced to a very narrow majority

           District       PR         Total
LDP       167         58          225    
KP            6          26           32
DP         105         64         169
JCP           1          19           20
ORA          5          12           17
SDP          1            1            2
PLP          2            0             2
Others     8            0             8

Overall, these sort of PR seat results would imply that LDP-KP vote share would be around 41% or even lower as the ORA could have many stranded votes in PR section outside Kinki where it has some support but not enough to cross the threshold to get seats which in turn would push up everyone else's seat share relative to their vote share including the LDP-KP.  These same PR seat results would also imply that DP would be around 36%-37% in terms of vote share which would be a complete shock.

For Upper House it has (and it is a shame it does not break out the PR seat and district seats)

LDP            44
KP              14
DP              45
JCP              5
ORA             6
AEJ             0
SDP             2
PLP              2
OSMP          1
Ind.            2

Frankly there lots of things that seems fishy about this projection other than it being to optimistic about how well a DP-JCP alliance can work on the ground.   At lot of these numbers seems inconsistent.  Namely

1) If JCP PR seat count for Lower House is 19 then the JCP PR vote share is most likely around 10%-11%.  But in Upper House they only project 5 seats for JCP.  Knowing that JCP is for sure going to win one of the Tokyo District seats (with 6 up for grab and JCP vote base being very disciplined) then that leaves JCP winning 4 PR seats in the Upper House which would more imply JCP getting around 8%-9% of the PR vote.  Even if we accept the JCP voter might tactically vote on PR section as well it is much more likely that JCP will over-perform in the Upper House PR section (which is an all Japan zone so the threshold for getting seats is low) whereas the PR section in the Lower House is by region making the threshold for getting seats much higher..

2) It has SDP getting 2 Upper House seats.  This seems implausible.  SDP does not have any prospects of winning a district seat in the Upper House so the 2 has to come from PR.  But that means that SDP PR vote share would be around 4%-5% which does not seem very likely when last few election cycles it has been in the 2% range.  With the narrative of opposition consolidation around DP in this poll a surge of SDP to 4%-5% seems even less likely.  One possibility is that in 大分(Ōita) the DP-JCP opposition unity candidate which is still being negotiated and most likely a DP candidate might end up being a SDP candidate or DP running as SDP candidate given that Ōita is the one prefecture where SDP has significant strength.  

3) It has ORA at 6 seats in the Upper House.  As long as ORA still retained some of its base on Kinki it should in theory capture 2 大阪(Osaka) and 1 兵庫(Hyōgo) district seat.  If it does not and DP-JCP can work out alliances deals in both prefectures then ORA could be reduced to just 1 Osaka district seat.  In that situation ORA will have 5 PR seats which in turn would imply a PR vote share of around 10-11%. Alternatively ORA could win 2 district seats and have 4 PR seats which would imply a PR vote share of  8%-9%.  I guess all this is possible.  My main issue with this projection is that I find it hard to believe that DP-JCP would get their act together (and withdraw candidates they already nominated)  to prevent ORA from winning 3 district seats.  But if that comes to pass then ORA would be at 3 PR seats which imply a ORA PR vote share of around 7% which I find too low.  I would think that given the DP-JCP alliance the Center-Right anti-LDP DP voter would most likely vote ORA so ORA should not be that low.

4) It has PLP winning 2 seats in Upper House.  Hard to figure out which 2.  It is clear PLP will win in 岩手(Iwate).  To fit the narrative the PLP should also win the tossup seat in 新潟(Niigata) where the PLP candidate is the opposition unity candidate.  But that would leave PLP with no PR seats which is possible but seems to contradict the narrative.  In 2013 LDP landslide PLP came very close to winning 1 PR seat.  For PLP in 2016 to do almost as bad as 2013 given the turnaround in the election climate as per this poll also seems contradictory.  

This projection has 2 independents winning.  Since this is projecting DP led opposition doing much better than expected then the 2 independents winning must be the second DP candidate in 愛知(Aichi) who is running as an independent which will now win the second DP seat in Aichi and the ex-DPJ ex-incumbent of  山形(Yamagata) who left DPJ but now is running as an independent with all opposition support.  The LDP backed independent in 神奈川(Kanagawa) under this projection is not expected to win the 3rd out of 4 Kanagawa seat.

[jaichind]

LDP's Lower House MP 茂木 敏充(Motegi Toshimitsu) came out with the LDP win/loss threshold of 50 seats in the upcoming Upper House election.  Usually people set these targets pretty low since failing to reach said target would represent failure and public humiliation.  And 50 is pretty low.  My projection would take LDP to 57 seats most consensus estimates of LDP seats would be around 62 seats.  Motegi did identify 10 single district seats as tough fights for LDP which are 宮城(Miyagi), 山形(Yamagata),福島(Fukushima),山梨(Yamanashi),新潟(Niigata),長野(Nagano),三重(Mie),滋賀(Shiga),大分(Ōita) and 沖縄(Okinawa).  I mostly agree with this list as he correctly has written of 岩手(Iwate) as lost.  I would also add 秋田(Akita) onto this list now that DP-JCP deal has been made there.  I think the LDP is underestimating DP's chances in Akita.  Akita is trending DP just like the rest of the Northern prefectures.    Also an ex-DPJ MP is running his personal vote and network can be used for a possible upset.  I think Akita will still go LDP but the chances of a DP upset is almost as high as a DP upset in Miyagi.  

[Zanas]

Ok so regarding the Hokkaido by-election, what's the color code for parties again ? It seems on some channels it's LDP in blue and DP in black, and on other channels it's LDP in red and DP in blue (aka retarded Murican media color code). So which is it ?

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Ok so regarding the Hokkaido by-election, what's the color code for parties again ? It seems on some channels it's LDP in blue and DP in black, and on other channels it's LDP in red and DP in blue (aka retarded Murican media color code). So which is it ?

I think it's 'supposed' to be LDP in green and DP in blue, for whatever reason. It might get presented otherwise because green and blue are only sometimes separate colors in the Japanese language.

[jaichind]

Ok so regarding the Hokkaido by-election, what's the color code for parties again ? It seems on some channels it's LDP in blue and DP in black, and on other channels it's LDP in red and DP in blue (aka retarded Murican media color code). So which is it ?

The colors are all over the place.  NHK seems to label LDP as red. DP as blue, JCP as purple, KP as pink, and ORA as yellow.

[Vega]

Green is the main color of the LDP and Black is a secondary one. Blue seems to be the main color for the Democrats.

[jaichind]

Magazine 週刊文春 (Shukan Bunshun) which is mostly center-right came out with their projections of the single member seats which looks like bad news for LDP.  They have

Opposition advantage: 岩手(Iwate), 三重(Mie), 滋賀(Shiga)
Tossup/lean opposition: 山形(Yamagata), 福島(Fukushima),新潟(Niigata), 山梨(Yamanashi), 長野(Nagano), 奈良(Nara), 岡山(Omkayaa), 大分(Ōita), 沖縄(Okinawa)
Tossup/lean LDP: 宮城(Miyagi), 秋田(Akita), 栃木(Tochigi), 熊本(Kumamoto)
Rest LDP

This is a very pro-DP list some of which are hard for me to digest.  
1) I find it hard that Iwate which is a PLP lock is in the same catagry as Mie or Shiga.  They must assume a DP-JCP deal in Mie which would make it lean DP or else it is pure tossup.  Even with a DP-JCP deal, like Shiga, both going to be close and nowhere in the same category as Iwate.
2)  I find it hard to believe that Nara and Omkayaa are in the same camp as the tossup/lean opposition prefectures.  They must assume that ORA will run very strong in Nara and pull away all the anti-JCP votes from LDP making it compeititve.  Absent of that I do not see how DP wins even with a DP incumbent running.  Omkayaa is even harder to explain.  A very popular DP incumbent is retiring and if he was convince to run then DP would have the edge.  Otherwise Omkayaa is a lean LDP district and I do not see any realistic chance for LDP to lose this one.
3) I do not see Tochigi or Kumamoto being in the same category as Miyagi and Akita.  Akita will be close but will most likely go LDP.  I would make the argument that Miyagi could potentially be tossup/lean DP.  Both Tochigi or Kumamoto should easily go LDP.  Perhaps their logic is that the old YP base of Tochigi will vote for the center-left independent that is the opposition unity candidate to strike  back at they old LDP rivals (YP started as a rival LDP faction to the local mainstream LDP factions in Tochigi).  For Kumamoto it perhaps it has to do with the earthquakes ? But all things equal the government reaction was fairly effective so I see no signs that Kumamoto will vote against LDP.

Using their methodology I would have

Opposition lock: 岩手(Iwate)
Opposition slight advantage: 福島(Fukushima), 長野(Nagano), 沖縄(Okinawa)
Tossup/lean opposition: 三重(Mie), 滋賀(Shiga), 山形(Yamagata), ,新潟(Niigata), 山梨(Yamanashi),  大分(Ōita),
Tossup/lean LDP: 宮城(Miyagi),
LDP slight advantage: 秋田(Akita)
Rest LDP lock.

I would put Mie in Opposition slight advantage if DP-JCP come to a deal.   Nara is quite unpredictable since one cannot know how ORA will do and where they will draw votes so I can also consider putting Nara in LDP slight advantage.

Frankly, if my projection comes to pass DP would be ecstatic.   The only 1- seat distinct they could potentially capture on top of what I am giving them is Miyagi, and if they win Akita it would be a severe setback for LDP-KP.  But the Shukan Bunshun are just too way out there.

[jaichind]

One 山田太郎 (Yamada Taro) who was elected in the 2010 Upper House elections on the YP ticket on the PR slate ended up in AEJ in early 2015 when AEJ was formed but joined ORA a couple of weeks ago as his re-election was coming up.  Just yesterday ORA nominated him to run in the 2 seat 埼玉(Saitama) prefecture.  Of course given the vote base of LDP-KP on one side and DP on the other there is no way he could be elected.  Anyway, one day after ORA nominated him for the seat he declared he was leaving ORA.  Another egg on the face of ORA.

[jaichind]

More complete Magazine 週刊文春 (Shukan Bunshun) projections for 2016 Upper House elections as well as 2016 Lower House elections (if a double election takes place.)



Upper House
      
                     District          PR          Total
LDP                 36              18             54
KP                     6               6              12
ORA                  2               6                8
PJK                   0                1               0
Pro-LDP Ind      1
DP                   21               9             30
JCP                   3               6                9
PLP                   1               1               3
SDP                  0               1               2
Pro-DP Ind        1
OMSP               1                                0

In many ways it makes a lot of calls different from convention wisdom which happans to match my current projections especially in the 1- seat marginal districts.  Like I said, we part ways on 奈良(Nara) and 岡山(Omkayaa) where they have it for DP and I find it impossible for DP to win there.  Also these projections has DP winning the last of 4 seats out of 愛知(Aichi) as opposed to ORA backed TCJ which I also agree with.  Even more boldly the project JCP to win the 4th seat in 大阪(Osaka) as opposed to ORA.  My model helped me came to the same conclusion even though pretty much everyone expects ORA to win 2 seats.  I am fortified in my view because ORA does not seem to even come up with a second candidate in Osaka which means something is up.    In 愛知(Aichi) they also made the call, just like me, that ORA backed TCJ will not capture the 4th seat which is against conventional wisdom  but unlike me they feel JCP will capture the 4th and last seat.   An in 兵庫(Hyōgo) they are along in making the call that DP will win the 3rd seat beating out KP.  This is pretty unusually and they are alone in making this call.  KP usually wins all the district seats they contest so this is pretty unusual.  Of course in 神奈川(Kanagawa) they are making the more conventional wisdom call that LDP-backed independent will win the 4th and last seat beating out both JCP and the second DP candidate whereas I feel JCP will win the 4th seat.

So while there is large agreement between my current estimates and Shukan Bunshun, their PR seat share does not jive with the district results.  I way I got to my district projections assume LDP+KP PR vote share to be around 44%.  These PR seat projections by Shukan Bunshun seems to imply LDP+KP vote share of around 47%-48%  Back in 2013 LDP+KP got 25 PR seats with around 49% of the vote.  Now Shukan Bunshun expects LDP+KP to get 24 PR seats.  This plus they having ORA getting 6 PR seats which would imply around 12% vote share for ORA would imply that large number of LDP-KP and ORA PR voters voted for DP candidates in very large scale ticket splitting for the district results they project to even take place.  Possible by unlikely.  On one last note, it give PJK one PR seat which would imply they actually would get above 2% of the vote on the PR section. I find it unlikely given how defunct PJK has become but anything can happen.  
 

For Lower House it has




                     District          PR          Total
LDP                202             74            276
KP                     7              24              31
ORA                  9               22              31
Pro-LDP ind       4                                  4
DP                   63              36              99
JCP                   1               22              23
SDP                  1                1                2
PLP                  2                 1                3
Pro-Oppn Ind    6                                   6

In many ways the PR section makes sense in the sense that it jives with Shukan Bunshun's Upper House PR projections.  These PR seat shares would imply a LDP-KP vote share on PR of around 47%-48%.  If their narrative is that in district seats cooperation between DP-PLP-SDP-JCP The district reduce the LDP-KP district seat count even as a swing toward LDP-KP takes place in reaction to DP alliance with JCP all these results are consistent and quite possible.   I will need to take a look at their district-by-district projections to see any issues.

It does some district by district analysis for the Upper House which I know it hard for anyone to make sense of unless you can read kanji


 

[jaichind]

Sorry if it seems like I am on the ORA case all the time.  Just a few days ago a ORA MP in the Lower House 足立康史(Yasushi Adachi) repeating insulted DP making in parliament by calling DP a party of idiots.  The uproar was so bad that ORA General Secretary had to take him to DP headquarters so he can apologize in person to the DP leadership. 

This entire episode makes me feel the ORA strategy is illogical at the strategic level and also is illogical from the personal level of Yasushi Adachi.  It seems the image that the ORA want to project is an anti-DP anti-JCP populist party to try to attract the anti-DP anti-JCP vote.  This is illogical because

1)  The typical anti-DP or anti-JCP voter would and should just vote LDP as the main non-DP non-JCP party.  Why bother voting for ORA?  If there is a market for a Hawkist Right populist party, they will vote ORA anyway with or without ORA projecting an anti-DP anti-JCP image.
2) This hurts ORA's ability to negotiate with LDP on policy issues.  If ORA projects an image that it cannot work with DP then LDP can correct take it for granted and yield nothing to ORA on policy or even on topics like pork for ORA constituencies  issues.
3) What the ORA strategy seems to project is that it is just another LDP faction but outside of LDP.  In which case they reduce themselves to fighting for the LDP vote bloc and yielding the anti-LDP vote to DP-JCP.

At a personal level what Yasushi Adachi did is silly.  He is forgetting he got re-elected in 2014 because of help from DPJ.  He ran in 2012 for JRP in Osaka 9th and got reelected in 2014 even though he lost his seat to LDP via the PR slate because his defeat was narrow enough to qualify on the JIP PR slate.  The exact results were

2012
JRP        39.8%
LDP       34.3%
DPJ       17.8%
JCP        8.00%

In 2014 DPJ in a deal with JIP backed the JIP candidate Yasushi Adachi even though a PLP rebel ran as well

2014
LDP           41.3%
JIP             39.5%
JCP            13.5%
PLP rebel      5.7%

Yasushi Adachi lost as the YP vote which backed in 2012 mostly went to LDP but kept it close because DPJ did not run.  If DPJ ran a candidate it would have drawn votes from JCP but more importantly from JIP and most likely Yasushi Adachi would have lost by a much larger margin as to make him not quality to win under PR.

So Yasushi Adachi is literally biting the hand that feed him in 2014.  He can calculate that in 2016 Osaka politics that DP is not so marginalized that they support does not matter.  But the optics of insulting the people that helped get you reelected does not look good at all.

[jaichind]

Trouble in the Ozawa fiefdom of 岩手(Iwate).  It seems the ex-DPJ ex-Ozawa loyalist but now independent Upper House MP of Iwate 平野達男 (Tatsuo Hirano) will likely join LDP soon and back LDP in the upcoming election in Iwate.  Tatsuo was first elected in 2001 as LP (Ozawa's party) reelected in 2007 as DPJ after Ozawa merged LP into DPJ  and when running for re-eelction in 2013 Tatsuo broke from DPJ and Ozawa won a 5 way race in Iwate beating out the LDP, PLP, DPJ, and JCP.  He ran as a non-Ozawa Center-Left and was able to attract enough of the DPJ PLP and LDP vote bases to win. In 2015 he drifted to a more pro-LDP position as the local politics of Iwate was becoming polarized around pro-Ozawa (PLP DPJ JCP) vs anti-Ozawa(LDP KP anti-Ozawa DPJ faction) blocs.  Now he most likely formally join LDP.   Also the long time Ozawa lieutenant Upper House incumbent MP just declared that he will not seek re-election forcing Ozawa to scramble to find the opposition United Front (DP PLP SDP JCP) candidate.  It is said that the current incumbent that declined to run for re-election did not want to get mixed up into the impending battles between pro- and anti- Ozawa blocs in Iwate.  Given the anti-LDP lean of Iwate as long as the opposition alliance finds a reasonable candidate they should still easily win even with Tatsuo  formally joining LDP and with the popular incumbent not running.  The margin of victory will be smaller.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Does it say more about me or about the Japanese political class that I find Ozawa a lot less repugnant than I used to?

[jaichind]

Does it say more about me or about the Japanese political class that I find Ozawa a lot less repugnant than I used to?

I always liked Ozawa.  I remember in high school in the late 1980s I was in awe how Tanaka then follwed by Takesh**ta, Ozawa, and Kanemaru were able to single-handedly control the government.  Of course Ozawa had a self-destructive streak.    If he did not try to fight Takesh**ta in 1992 he could have been PM by the late 1990s.  He could have been PM by the late 1990s in with the NFP if he did not alienate so many of his allies, especially those from the KP.  And he could have been PM by the late 2000s if he did not again make so many enemies in the DPJ and the bureaucracy. 

[jaichind]

The Tanaka clans lives.  This year seems like the end of the great Tanaka dynasty.  田中直紀 (Tanaka Naoki), son-in-law of the great PM Tanaka Kakuei and husband of former Foreign mister 田中 眞紀子 (Tanaka Makiko) who was the incumbent 新潟(Niigata) looked set to retire and not run for reelection.  He spent this entire career in LDP but back in 2008 left LDP to join DPJ while his wife mostly broke with LDP after 2002 and was de facto DPJ.  His wife was defeated back in 2012 so he was the only member of the Tanaka political dynasty left.  A while ago a deal was made for Tanaka Naoki to run on the DP PR slate while a ex-DPJ now PLP former MP will run as the common opposition candidate against LDP in this tossup district.   
 

[jaichind]

Now that the 2 by-elections are over it is time for a projection update from me.    There has been a lot more all opposition deals in 1-seat districts.  Recent polls in terms of Abe approval and how LDP-KP polls plus the by-election implication that DP-JCP alliance can work on the ground does shift my projections more in DP's favor, even in multi-member districts where are possiblities of anti-LDP anti-ORA tactical voting by DP-JCP.  

                                               Prediction
北海道Hokkaido         3              LDP LDP DP  
青森   Aomori             1             LDP                                  
岩手   Iwate               1             PLP          
宮城   Miyagi               1             LDP      
秋田   Akita                1             LDP                                  
山形   Yamagata         1             DP backed independent                                
福島   Fukushima       1             DP                            
茨城   Ibaraki             2             LDP DP                            
栃木   Tochigi             1             LDP                                  
群馬   Gunma            1              LDP                                  
埼玉   Saitama           3             LDP KP DP                    
千葉   Chiba               3             LDP LDP DP                    
神奈川Kanagawa       4               LDP KP DP JCP          
山梨   Yamanashi       1             LP        
東京   Tokyo              6             LDP LDP KP DP JCP DP
新潟   Niigata             1             PLP                                  
富山   Toyama            1             LDP                                  
石川   Ishikawa           1             LDP                                  
福井   Fukui                1             LDP                                  
長野   Nagano             1             DP                              
岐阜   Gifu                  1             LDP                                  
静岡   Shizuoka           2             LDP DP                            
愛知   Aichi                 4             LDP KP DP DP                
三重   Mie                   1             DP                                
滋賀   Shiga                1             DP        
京都   Kyoto                2             LDP DP    
大阪   Osaka               4             LDP KP ORA JCP                  
兵庫   Hyōgo               3             LDP KP ORA      
奈良   Nara                 1             LDP                                  
和歌山Wakayama       1              LDP                                  
鳥取 Tottori                
島根   Shimane           1             LDP                                
岡山   Okayama          1             LDP          
広島   Hiroshima         2             LDP DP    
山口   Yamaguchi        1             LDP                                  
徳島   Tokushima  
高知   Kōchi                1             LDP                                  
香川   Kagawa            1             LDP                                  
愛媛   Ehime              1             LDP                                  
福岡   Fukuoka           3             LDP KP DP                      
佐賀   Saga                1             LDP                                  
長崎   Nagasaki           1             LDP                                
熊本   Kumamoto        1             LDP                                
大分   Ōita                  1             DP            
宮崎   Miyazaki           1             LDP                                  
鹿児島Kagoshima       1             LDP                                  
沖縄   Okinawa           1             OSMP          

This along with PR section gives us

          Vote share     PR seat      District seats         Total
LDP       30.5%          15               38                       53
KP         13.5%            7                7                       14
DIP        26.5%          13              20                       33
SDP        2.5%             1                0                        1
PLP         2.0%             1                2                        3
ORA        9.5%             5                2                        7
PJK         1.0%             0                0                         0
JCP       13.0%             6                3                         9
AEJ         0.5%             0                0                        0
OSMP                                             1                        1

The biggest change is that in Osaka I now project that JCP will capture the 4th seat.  ORA has shown to be weaker than expected in the by-election and their inability to even come up with a second canddiate plus likely DP tactical voting for JCP seems to indicate that JCP should capture the 4th and last seat. The rest are various 1- seat districts like Yamagata, Yamanashi, Niigata, Ōita, and Shiga where DP-JCP deals gives DP the edge in all 4 seats in my view, although with a very tiny margin.

As for Japanese political discussion boards.  The consensus there is  has been moving in my direction.  They mostly have accepted by view that in Kanagawa the LDP backed ex-YP incumbent will not be able to capture the 4th and last seats, especially in light of the ORA candidate to split the old YP vote and that instead the JCP will win the 4th seats.  They also have accepted my view that in Aichi ORA backed TCJ will not win the 4th and last seat.  The debate now is weather DP will win its second seat for the 4th seat or will JCP will.  I say DP and so does the majority on the Japanese political discussion board.  But that so many feel that JCP could win the 4th seat in Aichi shows how far the JCP has come.  They also shifted around the same time as me to feel that in Osaka JCP will capture the 4th and last seat.  They also have accepted my view that DP will now capture almost all the 1- seat tossups given the DP-JCP deals.  They also agree with me that in 宮城(Miyagi) where it is a tossup and very close that LDP will end up winning by a whisker although a strong minority holds the opposition opinion. Also I see more and more projections (although still in the minority) of the JCP winning the third and last of 3 seats in 北海道(Hokkaido) from LDP.  This seems only possible if there are DP tactical voting for the JCP candidate and away from the weaker of the second DP candidate.   Similarly I see more and more projections (also in the minority) for DP to win the 3rd and last seat of 兵庫(Hyōgo) over KP.  Again this is possible only if there is JCP tactical voting for the DP candidate.  The influence of the 2 by-elections seems to be great in terms of projections.  The main takeaway for many, including myself, is that tactical voting at the ground level between DP and JCP voting blocs are quite possible and likely. 

The only disagreement between my projection and the Japanese discussion board consensus seems to be Yamagata and Ōita where the majority feels that LDP should be able to capture both.  While a strong minority agree with me on Ōita almost no one seems to take my position on Yamagata where I am almost alone in insisting that DP has the edge there.  The DP backed independent there is 舟山 康江 (Funayama Yasue) who is an ex-DPJ ex-incumbent who lost re-election in 2013 after leaving DPJ and forming みどりの風 (Green Wind) by a narrow margin with DPJ support.  I rate her as an incumbent in my model which gives her an extra personal advantage.  My logic is that if she could lose by a narrow margin in 2013 in a LDP landslide year then this year where LDP is not as good of a shape plus she will have JCP support she should be able to win as long as she retains some of her personal vote from 2013 and 2007 when she was first elected as a DPJ candidate.   Also the LDP incumbent is not running which removes a possible disadvantage she did not have in 2013.  I guess the rest of the Japanese political discussion boards does not see it that way.  Their consensus view is that that Yamagata 2014 PR vote seems to suggest that even of the opposition vote blocs fused it is not enough to beat LDP-KP vote blocs.  My comeback is Funayama's personal vote plus that Yamagata is trending DP over the last few election cycles so there most likely will be an anti-LDP swing here.  

In terms of PR the Japanese political discussion board has larger LDP PR vote and small DP PR vote than myself.
 
These differences gives us

         Vote share     PR seat      District seats         Total
LDP       33.5%          17               40                      57
KP         13.5%            7                7                       14
DPJ        22.0%          11              18                       31
SDP        2.5%             1                0                        1
PLP         1.5%             0                2                        2
ORA       11.5%            6                2                        8
PJK         1.5%            0                0                         0
JCP       12.5%             6                3                        9
AEJ         0.5%            0                0                        0
OSMP                                            1                        1

So I have pro-Constitutional change/anti-Constitutional change at 74/47 while the Japanese political discussion board consensus has it at 79/42.  

[jaichind]

Just for fun I decided to try to track the flow of votes for the Kyodo 3rd district by-election from the 2014 election result.  
The result of the by election was

DP      65,051   65.4%
ORA    20,710   20.8%
PJK       6,449     6.5%
Ind.      4,599     4.6%
HRP      2,247     2.3%
Ind.         370     0.4%

And back in 2014 it was

LDP    59,437   35.8%
DPJ    54,900    33.1%
JCP    26,655    16.1%
JIP     24,840    15.0%

Based on some common sense plus some results of exit polls which I had to un-skew I came up with

                                    2016    by-election
                                 DP         ORA         PJK        Ind       HRP       Total  
2   LDP    59,437       2,459      9,162   4,707    3,604    1,449   21,383  
0   DPJ     54,900    36,783      1,098          0    1,098       549    39,528
1   JCP     26,655    17,326              0          0      267           0    17,592
4   JIP      24,880      3,483     10,450   1,742          0       249    15,923
             165,872     60,051    20,710   6,449   4,969    2,247    94,426    

Mostly by estimating turnout and vote distribution for DPJ JCP and JIP and then retrofitting LDP turnout and vote flow.

The turnout of LDP DPJ JCP and JIP as a % of their 2014 vote under this scheme are

LDP     36.0%
DPJ      72.0%
JCP      66.0%
JIP       64.0%
Total    56.9%

The basic idea is that turnout for DPJ and JIP from 2014 are significant given that their core candidate is running.  Of course the non-ORA part of JIP merged into DP so a significant minority of the 2014 JIP vote that came out is expected to vote DP.  While JCP is backing DP this time the turnout is a bit lower since after all the candidate running is not the JCP candidate.  LDP-KP turnout is very low as expected.

Under my model 93% of DPJ voters that turned out in 2016 voted DP as did 98.5% of JCP voters.  For the 2014 JIP voters that turned out they went to DP 22% ORA 66% and PJK 11%.  For the 36% of the 2014 LDP-KP voters that did turn out 12% went to DP, 43% went to ORA, and 22% went to PJK.

What did ORA in was that 2014 JIP turnout was lower than expected showing lack of enthusiasm for the ORA.  Also whatever turnout LDP-KP voters came out a good chunk actually voted DP and not ORA.

[jaichind]

Some funny stories coming out of Tokyo.

In Tokyo for the Upper House it is a 6- member district going up from 5- from 2013.  The LDP plan is for LDP to nominate 2 and KP to nominate 1 credible candidates which should be a lock for LDP-KP to win 3 out of 6 seats and let the various opposition parities fight over the rest versus trying to win 4 out of 6 and most likely ending up with 2 if there are good opposition coordination.    LDP has 1 incumbent coming into 2016 so they have to search for a second LDP candidate.  

Their original and seemly innovation idea for the second LDP candidate was famous disabled writer 乙武洋匡(Ototake Hirotada) who was born without arms or legs.


 
Several other parties, namely AEJ, were trying to recruit Ototake as well but he went with LDP which was a coup to improve the image of LDP as an inclusive party.  Then investigative journalist came out with a story that Ototake was a major "player" has at least five mistresses concurrently.  His wife came out to defend him saying that she was responsible for his affairs for not being able to satisfy him at home.  It is pretty amazing that a man without arms and legs is able to get more "action" then most non-disabled men.  

Anyway, this revelation forced LDP to look elsewhere for its second Tokyo candidate and time is running out.  The latest leaked plan is that LDP might nominate no other than former LDP heavyweight, YP founder and then discraced leader 渡辺 喜美(Watanabe Yoshimi).



Watanabe been in the political wilderness since being beaten by the LDP running as an independent in the 2014 Lower House election in his home fiefdom district after YP was disbanded.  Watanabe was a good friend of Abe back when Abe as PM the first time and bolted from LDP in 2009 at a time when Abe was clearly out of power in the LDP so this is plausible.   There are also talk that Watanabe might run in the LDP PR slate.  Watanabe says he is eager to run in the 2016 elections and that several parties have approached him to run in their PR slate.  Watanabe also says that he might form a new party.  Watanabe's nephew 渡辺美知太郎 (Watanabe Michitaro) who was a YP Upper House MP but now independent (as opposed to joining AEJ) is also said to be looking into joining LDP.  I actually backed YP back in the day when it was formed as a small government libertarian party but this is turning into a circus that does not end.

The word is that ORA is interviewing Ototake to be a candidate for ORA, most likely for Tokyo.  If ORA goes ahead with this they risk turning ORA into a clown show and not being taken seriously outside of Osaka.

[jaichind]

鈴木哲夫 (Suzuki Tetsuo) which is a political commentator of the magazine Nikkan Gendai came out with his projections of the 2016 Upper House elections.



Which translates to

              District         PR           Total
LDP           38             16             54
KP              6                7             13
DP             19             12             31
JCP             3               8              11
SDP            0               1                1
PLP             1              0                 0
ORA            2              4                 6
Ind             4              0                 4

The 4 Ind. district winners all seems to be opposition alliance candidates.  It must for sure include OMSP in 沖縄(Okinawa), PLP in 新潟(Niigata), ex-DPJ former MP in 山形(Yamagata), and one other one which I am not sure which one it is.  That he has KP as 6 district seats means that he also projects that DP will capture the third and final seat of 兵庫(Hyōgo) from KP.  This is possible if there are tactical JCP voting for the DP candidate.  From at vote share perspective these seats projections implies he has LDP around 31.5% KP around 13.5% DP around 24% ORA around 8.5% and JCP around 16%.   This is roughly about the same as my in terms of Right (LDP+KP+ORA)/Left (DP+JCP) break down.  I have a bit more of the Right vote with ORA instead of LDP and I have a bit more of the Left vote with DP instead of JCP.  If his numbers are right then JCP would be headed toward the largest vote share in its history by a large margin. 

[jaichind]

DP-PLP-SDP-JCP deal reached in 福島(Fukushima) where a DP candidate will run and 和歌山(Wakayama) where a center-left independent will run.  Deal in 岩手(Iwate) is off for now because the PLP consensus candidate decided not to run for re-election so the opposition bloc has to agree on a new candidate, most likely someone else from PLP as this is Iwate after all.  The deal in Fukushima is quite relevant as this ensures that this seat is now tossup/lean DP and not tossup/lean LDP.    Wakayama most likely will not make a difference as it will be a LDP landslide.  Being that Wakayama is in Kinki and making it possible that ORA will run a candidate might mix things up but it is unlikely that even that will change the rating of this seat.



青森(Aomori) - DP candidate -> solid LDP
宮城(Miyagi) - DP candidate -> tossup
秋田(Akita) - DP candidate -> tossup/lean LDP
山形(Yamagata) - center-left independent (former DPJ MP) -> tossup
福島(Fukushima) - DP candidate -> tossup/lean DP
栃木(Tochigi) - center-left independent -> solid LDP
群馬(Gunma) - DP candidate -> solid LDP
新潟(Niigata) - PLP candidate -> tossup
富山(Toyama)- center-left independent -> LDP landslide
石川(Ishikawa) - center-left independent -> LDP landslide
福井(Fukui) - center-left independent -> LDP landslide
山梨(Yamanashi) - DP candidate -> tossup
長野(Nagano) - DP candidate -> tossup/lean DP
滋賀(Shiga) - DP candidate -> tossup/lean DP
和歌山(Wakayama) - center-left independent -> LDP landslide
鳥取(Tottori/
島根(Shimane) - center-left independent -> LDP landslide
岡山(Okayama) - DP candidate -> Solid LDP
山口(Yamaguchi) - center-left independent -> LDP landslide
徳島(Tokushima)/
高知(Kōchi) - center-left independent -> solid LDP
愛媛(Ehime) - center-left independent -> LDP landlide
長崎(Nagasaki) - DP candidate -> LDP landslide
熊本(Kumamoto) - center-left independent -> LDP landslide
宮崎(Miyazaki) - center-left independent -> LDP landslide
沖縄(Okinawa) - OSMP candidate -> lean OSMP

The most critical ones left to get a deal on are to re-lock down 岩手(Iwate) , 三重(   Mie) (this one is most difficult as the local DP branch is fairly hostile to JCP), and 大分(Ōita).