Japan 2016 - July 10

[Famous Mortimer]

What's ORN stand for?

[jaichind]

What's ORN stand for?

Okinawa Resident Network  (沖縄県民ネット) which is really a caucus of center-left independents that are anti-base bloc and then became the main pro-governor  翁長 雄志(Onaga Takeshi) bloc when Onaga was election.  Has since been named AO or All Okinawa (オール沖縄).

Several non-LDP governors does this to try to get a legislative bloc that will back his agenda since most of the time DP or DPJ is too weak to form a large enough bloc to achieve this.  In 滋賀(Shiga) the anti-LDP governor has created the bloc called Team Shiga (チームしが滋賀) which has already emerged as a local center-left Shiga local party.

[jaichind]

Predicting a stark government underperformance in the North makes a great deal of sense but the other things that would be required for those figures to shake out unfortunately don't so much.

Speaking of the North, can anybody explain why Aomori appears to be markedly more Jiminto-friendly in general than the other Northern prefectures? In 2009 Jiminto held the Hirosaki-based, Hachinohe-based, and Shimokita-to-Towada constituencies despite getting blown out almost everywhere else north of Tokyo. I've spent a significant amount of time in Aomori, during a House of Councillors election, and I still don't understand this.

Conversely, I'm also wondering if there's any non-Ozawa reason why Iwate is such an opposition stronghold, or if it's really just Ozawa having the prefecture bought and paid for.

For I Aomori  I agree that along with 秋田(Akita) they are the more pro-LDP prefectures of the North.  Only think I can think of is that Aomori has very high unemployment which makes it very dependent on LDP based pork barrel spending for its economy.  This in turn make the clientelism nature of the LDP system even more power here.  While for places like 宮城(Miyagi) and 福島(Fukushima) does have a significant agriculture sector which has historically have leaned LDP but now due to Koizumi and now TPP has been drifting away from LDP to JCP and to some extent DPJ/DP.

As far as I know before Ozawa defected away from LDP Iwate was in the middle of the pack in LDP PVI for Northern Japan.  The Ozawa machine then defected from LDP in 1993 which then made local politics split between the Ozawa machine versus the LDP machine versus just LDP machine domination in other prefectures.  So I think it is just Ozawa.  Of course over the least decade and half the North has been drifting away from LDP overall which just reinforces the non-LDP bloc in Iwate.
 

[jaichind]

It seems that the all opposition joint candidate in Okinawa Upper House election who has a OSMP background 伊波洋一  (Iha Yoichi)  has decided to run as AO backed independent.    He actually ran for governor of Okinawa in 2010 as the all opposition candidate was was defeated by the LDP candidate who won mostly by co-opting the base issue taking a neutral position if not anti-base position.  He has since then reversed himself leading to his defeat by Onaga.  Anyway Iha is expected to win in July which even most pro-LDP commentators concede.

[jaichind]

For Upper House elections Abe sets minimum target of LDP-KP winning a majority of seats up for grabs which is 61 out of 121.  Obviously he is trying to lower expectations and set some or of floor on LDP-KP performance. 

[jaichind]

稲田 朋美 (Inada Tomomi) who is a LDP MP and Chairwoman of the Policy Research Council of the LDP just claimed in an interview that in 2019 when the consumption tax increase is now due to take affect Abe could still be LDP President and PM.  This would mean either changing current LDP rules on reelection or have some puppet PM for a few months before Abe returns.

[Vega]

稲田 朋美 (Inada Tomomi) who is a LDP MP and Chairwoman of the Policy Research Council of the LDP just claimed in an interview that in 2019 when the consumption tax increase is now due to take affect Abe could still be LDP President and PM.  This would mean either changing current LDP rules on reelection or have some puppet PM for a few months before Abe returns.

Having some sort of puppet serve would really just be idiotic when you can repeal the term limit instead.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Abe is probably a better person than Sato Eisaku, so I won't shed tears for Sato's postwar record if Abe breaks it with a significantly reduced majority.

[Vosem]

Abe is probably a better person than Sato Eisaku, so I won't shed tears for Sato's postwar record if Abe breaks it with a significantly reduced majority.

I ask out of ignorance, not disagreement, but...what was wrong with Eisaku Sato? All I know about him is that he received the Nobel Peace Prize for refusing to allow nuclear weapons to be stationed in Japan (a position that I'm not particularly a fan of, but I can't imagine you agree with me on this).

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Abe is probably a better person than Sato Eisaku, so I won't shed tears for Sato's postwar record if Abe breaks it with a significantly reduced majority.

I ask out of ignorance, not disagreement, but...what was wrong with Eisaku Sato? All I know about him is that he received the Nobel Peace Prize for refusing to allow nuclear weapons to be stationed in Japan (a position that I'm not particularly a fan of, but I can't imagine you agree with me on this).

He was a wife-beater.

[jaichind]

Okinawa Prefecture elections over. Turnout 51.6% which is down 1% from 2012.  Counting to start soon.


Links to results are

http://ryukyushimpo.jp/news/entry-292270.html

http://www.nhk.or.jp/okinawa2/senkyo/

[jaichind]

So far in smaller districts the anti-base bloc are getting a strong swing although it makes no difference in seats.  If they get a similar swing in larger districts with more seats available then it will make a difference.  Although the anti-base bloc nominated a lot of candidates in the larger districts so the swing has to be substantial or else it would be for naught.   

[jaichind]

As more results comes in it shows there is a small swing away from LDP but nowhere enough for the anti-base bloc to gain that many seats, if any.  Most likely from a seats point of view this will be a status quo election.  LDP seems to have weathered the storm.

[jaichind]

In the urban 11 member district Naha (easily the largest) some results are coming in and so far it is not so positive for LDP.  Seems like they will lose some seats here relative to 2012.

[jaichind]

In Naha LDP will lose at least one seat.  Had AO been more conservative in its nomination strategy LDP would have lost one more seat.  It seems in terms of swing toward the anti-base bloc, it was less than the anti-base bloc had expected.

[jaichind]

Using current leads the seat distribution would be

LDP  15 (-1)
KP      4 (-1)
ORA    2 (-)
OMSP  4(+1)
DP       0(-1)
SDP    7(-1)
AO    10(+2)
JCP     6(+1)

Anti-base bloc rises from 24 to 27 out of 48.

[jaichind]

In terms of vote share with most of the votes counted LDP goes from 38.55% to 33.10% while KP goes from 10.83% to 6.25%.  ORA is at 4.04% versus 3.41% in 2012.  Anti-base bloc, especially AO, over-nominating candidates most likely prevented a even greater defeat in terms of seats for LDP and KP give these vote share totals.

[jaichind]

Not confirmed yet but a recount in one of the smaller districts has LDP losing a seat it held and now lost even though the initial count has the LDP candidate winning a seat.  So anti-base bloc will most likely end up with 28 seats.

[jaichind]

It seems that LDP lost seat was a typo.  So it is still 27 seats for anti-base bloc.

Final results are

Okinawa 2016

                 Candidates       Won           Vote share
LDP                22                 15                32.98%
ORA                 3                   2                  4.17%
ORA rebel         1                   0                  0.16%
KP                    4                   4                  6.26%
DP rebel           2                   0                  2.37%
DP                    1                  0                  1.13%
AO                 18                 10                 22.53%
OSMP               4                   4                  6.05%
SDP                 8                   7                 13.89%
JCP                  7                   6                 10.46%
Ind.                 1                   0                   0.02%

Which gives us anti-base bloc at 27 seats with vote share 54.05%, neutrals (ORA, KP, DP rebel) at 6 seats with vote share 12.94% and pro-base (LDP) at 15 and vote share of 32.98%



27 pro-Governor, 6 neutral, and 15 anti-governor.

All in all LDP did pretty well given the circumstances.


2012 result were

                 Candidates       Won           Vote share
LDP                23                 16                38.55%
KP                    5                   5                10.83%
JIP                   2                   1                  1.83%    -> now ORA
PGOR               1                   1                  1.58%    -> merged into ORA
ORN                 9                  7                 13.16%
PNP                 1                   1                  1.54%     -> now merged into ORN
DPJ                  3                   1                  3.55%    -> now DP
OSMP               3                   3                  5.72%
SDP                 9                   8                 15.75%
JCP                  6                   5                   7.37%
Ind.                 1                   0                   0.12%
 

 

[jaichind]

Okinawa newspaper on anti-bloc victory



It points out that pro-governor anti-base bloc wins 27 seats and that 31 membres out of 48 are againist the base since KP is in theory neutral relative toward the governor but for thsi election has taken an anti-base position.

[jaichind]

For the Okinawa Prefecture assembly elections, most of the media talks about a smashing victory for the anti-base bloc.  While I kind of agree in terms of vote share I do not agree in terms of seats.  In terms of vote share LDP went from 38.55% to 32.98% but only lost one seat (16 to 15) due to overagressive nomationation strategies of the anti-base bloc.  For KP its vote share went from 10.83% to 6.26% and went from 5 to 4 seats.  But this drop is decptive.  One of the KP members from 2012 was always anti-base and this time around joined AO instead of running as a pro-KP indepenedent.   If we took that into account KP really was flat in terms of seats (4 -> 4) and went from 8.78% to 6.26%.  Also a PNP winner of 2012 have since merged PNP into AO.  BTW, both the KP member and PNP member that joined AO actuially lost re-eelction.  Once we factor in the vote bases of what eventually made up the anti-base bloc, they went from 26 to 27 seats and went from 49.14% to 54.05%.  A significnat jump in terms of vote share but not much gain in terms of seats.  In Naha if the anti-base bloc had been more conservative in terms of its nomiation strategy it could have won one more LDP and one more KP seat.

All in all the anti-base bloc made gains but failed to make meaningful gains in seats in a lost opportuntiy in retrosepct. 

What does this in for the Upper House elections?  The LDP MP is up for re-eelction and this election shows that a generic LDP will lose to the anti-LDP candidate by around 56-44 as the LDP should be able to grab most of the ORA and KP vote shares.  The fact that the LDP MP is an incumbant should be another advantage.  The LDP MP should end up losing by something like 53-47 in the Upper House elections in Okinawa only July 10th.

[jaichind]

Problems are brewing between LDP and KP in 兵庫(Hyōgo) with resepct to the Upper House elections.  It has to do with redistricting.  Historically the LDP-KP deal has been that if a district has 4 members or more KP will contest all of them and if a district has 3 members KP will run in some and not in others based on relative KP strength.  KP will stay away from 1- and 2- member districts.  It is similar to the de facto deal JCP and the non-JCP opposition parties where JCP will stay away from the 1- seat districts.  

Issues here is that for Hyōgo this election the number of members went from 2- to 3-.  Given this district his historcially is PVI+1 for KP, KP demanded a seat and LDP agreed to it.  One problem that has emerged is that Hyōgo is also a ORA stronghold given its proximity to Osaka and has obviuously nomianted a candidate.  So it will be LDP KP ORA DP and JCP all vieing for 3 seats.  Assuming a national PR vote share of 45% for LDP-KP I estimate the vote base in Hyōgo will be the following

LDP      28
KP        15
ORA      26
DP        17
JCP       14

So it is clear that LDP and ORA will win a seat each with KP DP and JCP fighting over the last seat.  Until recently it was expected that LDP tactical voting for KP should give it a easy victory over DP and JCP.  But now with DP-JCP alliances in the rest of Japan there emerged a fear in KP that JCP tactial voting for DP will push DP over KP for the third seat.  

KP internally works like a cult where ther is a culture of the omnipotence of high command.   The rule is that when KP nominates a candidate he/she must win.  High command always knows all and sees all and always make the right decisions.  So losing this seat will be an internal disaster for KP.  KP has been putting more pressure on LDP in Hyōgo to push for greater LDP tactical voting for KP.  The local LDP is getting angry saying "hey, you get your own votes, why is it always us that has to fetch the votes for you?"  Another fact is that JCP and KP are mortal enemies.  If there is one party KP hates it is JCP and vice versa, especially when both parties goes after the same lower income vote base.  So KP totally believes that JCP will work to tactically vote for DP to beat KP which makes them freaked out some more.  

Now even if the LDP-KP vote share is something like 47%-48% and not 45%, most of those gains will be from ORA and to some extent DP toward LDP and not KP.  So the basic math does not change, KP still in danger of losing Hyōgo seat if there is JCP tactical voting for DP.

[jaichind]

LDP has nominated as its second candidate in Tokyo one 朝日健太郎(Asahi Kentarō) who is a  former beach volleyball player that represented Japan in the 2008 and 2012 olympics.  Usually for the Upper House elections one nominates a political insider with grass roots organization or a celebrity to add to the party machine.  While Asahi is somewhat well known in sports circles he is not anyway close to a celebrity.  Many people are confused by this nomination strategy.  The LDP will now have to use the power of the LDP organization to get Asahi elected.  Tokyo is a 6 member district.  It is clear that LDP DP JCP and KP will each win one.  It was expected that with a reasonable candidate the LDP will win the 5h seat with DP and ORA fighting for the last seat with the DP with the upper hand.  Now Asahi's nomination could throw this calculation awry.  LDP could very well lose its second seat or come close to losing it.  This is kind of bad news for DP as well as this configuration could see  some pro-LDP vote drifting ORA's way which is not enough for Ashahi to lose but enough for ORA to overtake DP.  Now it is a 3 way race (LDP DP ORA) for the last two seats.

[reciprocity]

I am so confused as to why the consumption tax hike was necessary and a significant part on this economic plan. It seems counter-productive for growth.

[jaichind]

I am so confused as to why the consumption tax hike was necessary and a significant part on this economic plan. It seems counter-productive for growth.

Because Japan's net debt to GDP is around 132%.  USA and UK are around 80% and Greece is around 170%.  So Japan is already halfway to Greece from fairly high net debt levels in USA and UK.  Note this is net debt so it already takes into account that a good part of the public debt has been monetized and in fact never to be repaid.   The ministry of finance has been pressuring for some sort of fix for years and was able to argue that Japan's consumption tax is way below world average and should be a low hanging fruit.