Japan 2016 - July 10

[jaichind]

I took some time to simulate what might take place in the very complex Tokyo 6 member district race.  Using the baseline number of LDP-KP PR vote across Japan of being around 45% and that the second LDP candidate is usually weak and brings nothing to the LDP table, my model produced the following distribution of vote.

LDP-KP             39.5%
Non LDP Right  14.5% (ORA, ex-YP incumbant, PJK, NW, NPR)
JCP                   17.5%
Center-Left       28.5% (DP, SDP)

The next step is try to estimate the vote share of the various candidates.  LDP and DP both have one very popular incumbant which will get a large bloc of the votes of their own bloc.  There are many Non-LDP Right candidate but the strong ORA candidate can work to consolidate that bloc even as the ex-YP incumbant must still have a following.  I estimate something like

DP#1         18
LDP#1        17.5
JCP             17.5
KP              14
LDP#2         8        
DP#2           8
ORA             8
ex-YP           3
SDP             2.5
NPR             1.5
PJK              1
NW              1

So LDP DP JCP KP win 4 of the 6 easy with LDP DP ORA figting for the last two.  The name of the game for LDP and DP is try to push their supporters to vote for the weaker of their two candidates.  In that sense LDP should have the edge as this sort of activity fits with the LDP party machine.  Of course LDP's relatively lackluster second candidate seem to hamper this.  ORA's job is try to squeeze out votes from the ex-YP incumbent which is hard as 3 might be his floor and the other extreme Right parties (NPR PJK NW) each of which has a small but potentially very local following.   ORA will also try to squeeze out votes from the LDP and DP voting blocs.  The ORA candidate, which is the former leader of NPN Tanaka, has a pretty positive image and appears to the urban middle class. This might be a better route as there is no way the OPA can outflank the 3 extreme Right parties on the Right.  If ORA can do this it will it should win the 5th seat and the winner of the last seat depends on where ORA got its extra vote (DP or LDP).  

For now I still stick to LDP DP JCP KP LDP DP as I am unconvinced of the vote gathering potential of the ORA candidate.

[jaichind]

Newspaper 毎日新聞 (Mainichi) came out with their newest  projections which is  getting more negative on LDP, especially relative to early 2016.  It has LDP-KP at 68 versus 77 from its projection in early 2016



Of the 5 pro-DP independents (2 will be de facto DP, 2 PLP and 1 AO) so my chart reflects this

               District            PR               Total
LDP           39                16                 55
KP               7                  6                 13
ORA            3                  6                   9
DP            18                11                 29
PLP             2                 0                   2
SDP            0                  1                  1
JCP             3                  8                 11
AO              1                  0                  1

Their PR seat share has LDP-KP at around 44%-45% which is pretty close to my current projection.  Their seat count is a bit more negative for LDP-KP than my projection but is pretty close to my current projection.

Mainichi projections from early 2016 are

Newspaper 毎日新聞 (Mainichi) came out with their own projections of a double election.



For Upper House it has

Upper House

Pro-Constitution Revision
LDP        63 (of which 18 PR) for a total of 128  
KP          14 (of which  7 PR)  for a total of  25
ORA         8 (of which  5 PR) for a total of   13
PCJM        0                          for a total of    3

Anti-Constitution Revision
DPJ        23 (of which   9 PR) for a total of  40
JIP           1 (of which   1 PR) for a total of   2
JCP          8 (of which   7 PR) for a total of  16
PLP          1 (of which   0 PR) for a total of   2
SDP         1 (of which   1 PR) for a total of   2
OSMP      1 (of which    0 PR) for a total of   2

Unknown position on Constitution Revision
AEJ         0                          for a total of    2

A easy 2/3 majority for LDP+KP+ORA+PCJM

[jaichind]

Political analyst 角谷浩一 (Kadoya Koichi) of Magazine 週刊現代 (Shukan Gendai) came out with their projection which has LDP-KP only at 63.



Of the 3 pro-DP independents (2 will be PLP and 1 AO) so my chart reflects this

               District            PR               Total
LDP           32                19                 51
KP               5                  7                 13
ORA            3                  5                   8
DP            29                11                 40
PLP             2                 0                   2
SDP            0                  1                  1
JCP             1                  5                  6
AO              1                  0                  1

This projection makes very little sense.  The PR seats implies LDP-KP PR vote share of 50%-51% which if true leaves too little district seats for LDP.  This projection puts it toward the top of most projections in terms of LDP-KP PR vote share but at the bottom of LDP-KP district seat projection.   KP getting 5 district seats is pretty much impossible.  KP should win 7 and at worst 6 district seats.  All things equal this projection calls large scale tactical voting for DP from JCP at the PR level plus massive ORA tactical voting for DP at the district level.  Both in theory possible but very unlikely.

[jaichind]

Political analyst 児玉克哉 (Kodama Katsuya) who nailed the 2014 Lower House election results came out with a much more pro-LDP projection at 75.

               District            PR               Total
LDP           42                20                 62
KP               6                  7                 13
ORA            2                  5                   7
DP            14                12                 26
PLP             0                 0                   0
SDP            0                  1                  1
JCP             4                  7                 11
AO              1                  0                  1

This projection has LDP-KP at around 52% in PR vote given the PR seat count.  It has PLP beating beaten in 岩手(Iwate).  Both are unlikely but at least are consistent.   It has a poor performance for ORA and very strong performance for JCP.  Again, given the 52% PR vote share for LDP-KP one would expect a better performance for LDP-KP in the district seat.  KP at 6 district seats does not seem consistent although he must be assuming a non-uniform swing toward LDP-KP plus tactical voting by JCP and ORA to make all this possible.  Unlikely but possible at least. 

[jaichind]

Political analyst  浅川博忠 (Asakawa Hirosh**tadashi) also of Magazine 週刊現代 (Shukan Gendai) came out with his separate projection which puts LDP-KP at 76 which puts him in the mainstream of what most political discussion board has this election. 

               District            PR               Total
LDP           44                18                 62
KP               7                  7                 14
ORA            2                  3                   5
DP            17                12                 29
PLP             1                 0                   1
SDP            0                  1                  1
JCP             3                  6                  9
AO              0                  0                  0

This projection has LDP-KP PR vote share at around 49%.  Unlike the other projections these district sesat projections mostly jive with this vote share.  He is going out on the limb to project that LDP will win 沖縄(Okinawa) over AO.  No one else is willing to make that call.  We will see.

[jaichind]

With a month to go before the election it is time for a projection update from me.    Abe's ratings has gone up over the last month but the expectations is that it will head back down by the time the election takes place.    I give LDP-KP 69 seats.

                                               Prediction
北海道Hokkaido         3              LDP LDP DP  
青森   Aomori             1             LDP                                  
岩手   Iwate               1             PLP          
宮城   Miyagi               1             LDP       (neck-to-neck)
秋田   Akita                1             LDP                                  
山形   Yamagata         1             DP backed independent  (neck-to-neck)                                
福島   Fukushima       1             DP                            
茨城   Ibaraki             2             LDP DP                            
栃木   Tochigi             1             LDP                                  
群馬   Gunma            1              LDP                                  
埼玉   Saitama           3             LDP KP DP                    
千葉   Chiba               3             LDP LDP DP                    
神奈川Kanagawa       4               LDP KP DP JCP     (neck-to-neck Ind.(LDP) might win 4th seat)       
山梨   Yamanashi       1             LDP       (neck-to-neck) 
東京   Tokyo              6             LDP LDP KP DP JCP DP   (neck-to-neck ORA might win 6th seat)
新潟   Niigata             1             PLP        (neck-to-neck)                          
富山   Toyama            1             LDP                                  
石川   Ishikawa           1             LDP                                  
福井   Fukui                1             LDP                                  
長野   Nagano             1             DP                              
岐阜   Gifu                  1             LDP                                  
静岡   Shizuoka           2             LDP DP                            
愛知   Aichi                 4             LDP KP DP DP                
三重   Mie                   1             DP          (neck-to-neck)                      
滋賀   Shiga                1             DP          (neck-to-neck)
京都   Kyoto                2             LDP DP    
大阪   Osaka               4             LDP KP ORA ORA    (neck-to-neck JCP might win 4th seat)              
兵庫   Hyōgo               3             LDP KP ORA      
奈良   Nara                 1             LDP                                  
和歌山Wakayama       1              LDP                                  
鳥取 Tottori                
島根   Shimane           1             LDP                                
岡山   Okayama          1             LDP          
広島   Hiroshima         2             LDP DP    
山口   Yamaguchi        1             LDP                                  
徳島   Tokushima  
高知   Kōchi                1             LDP                                  
香川   Kagawa            1             LDP                                  
愛媛   Ehime              1             LDP                                  
福岡   Fukuoka           3             LDP KP DP                      
佐賀   Saga                1             LDP                                  
長崎   Nagasaki           1             LDP                                
熊本   Kumamoto        1             LDP                                
大分   Ōita                  1             DP             (neck-to-neck)
宮崎   Miyazaki           1             LDP                                  
鹿児島Kagoshima       1             LDP                                  
沖縄   Okinawa           1             OSMP          

This along with PR section gives us

          Vote share     PR seat      District seats         Total
LDP       31.5%          16               39                       55
KP         13.5%            7                7                       14
DIP        25.25%        13              19                       32
SDP        2.5%             1                0                        1
PLP         1.0%             0                2                        3
VPA         1.25%          0                0                         0
ORA        9.0%             4                3                        7
PJK         1.25%           0                0                         0
JCP       13.5%             7                2                         9
AEJ         0.5%             0                0                        0
OSMP                                             1                        1

ORA came out with a pretty good second candidate in Osaka so I now project ORA wins the 4th and final Osaka seat over JCP.  Also in Yamanashi an ex-DPJ turned YP ex-MP is running as an independent which will split opposition votes and makes this seat now tilt LDP again.

As for Japanese political discussion boards.  The consensus there has pretty much converged to my projections.  Exceptions are they still expect the LDP-backed independent to win the 4th and final seat over JCP.  They also expect LDP to win Shiga and Ōita over DP where as I expect DP to win by narrow margins.    They also expect LDP to win Miyagi just llike me but it is clear that the political discussion board concensus is that Miyagi will fall to DP before Shiga and for sure Ōita does where as I have Miyagi falling to DP last.

In terms of PR the Japanese political discussion board has larger LDP PR vote and small DP PR vote than myself and gives LDP-KP around 47% versus my 45%
 
These differences gives LDP-KP 73 seats.

         Vote share     PR seat      District seats         Total
LDP       33.5%          17               42                      59
KP         13.5%            7                7                       14
DPJ        24.0%          12              17                       29
SDP        2.25%           1                0                        1
PLP         1.0%             0                2                        2
VPA         1.0%            0                0                        0
ORA       10.0%            5                3                        8
PJK         1.25%           0                0                         0
JCP       12.5%             6                1                        7
AEJ         0.5%            0                0                        0
OSMP                                            1                        1

So I have pro-Constitutional change/anti-Constitutional change at 76/45 while the Japanese political discussion board consensus has it at 81/40.  

[jaichind]

NHK June poll just out.  There might be one more before the 7/10 election. 

Abe Cabinet Approval 48/35

LDP    38.1
NK       4.7
DP       7.6
JCP      3.2
ORA     1.2
SDP     0.8
PLP     0.1
PJK     0.2

The LDP-KP PR vote share is, for me,  derived by NHK LDP+KP plus 2% which would yield LDP-KP PR vote share at 45%.  The caveats are a) DP support seems very low and b) Abe/LDP support is artifically high given the G7 summit and almost certain to fall over June/July.  I guess a) and b) cancel each other out.

[jaichind]

I thought it might be interesting to look at some of the larger 4- member districts seat and vote share breakdowns using my current LDP-KP national PR vote share of 45% as the baseline.

We have 4- member 大阪(Osaka). ORA, KP and JCP are very strong here but LDP is managed to cope and it is DP that has borne the brunt of the rise of ORA.  Current baseline has LDP-KP 40 non-LDP Right (2 ORA 1 PJK) 35 JCP 15 DP 10.  LDP and KP will run one candidate each and ORA will run 2 candidates.  A guess of what the result will look like is something like:

LDP      23
ORA#1 19
KP        17
ORA#2 15
JCP       15
DP        10
PJK         1

ORA#2 and JCP are neck-to-neck for the 4th and last seat.  ORA will have to count on good vote allocation between its two candidates.  JCP will have to count on DP tactical voting.  The second ORA candidate is a current LDP member of city council that defected over to ORA who is considered a quality candidate which makes good vote allocation for ORA quite possible.  I feel that right now this is neck-to-neck between ORA and JCP.



神奈川(Kanagawa) which is a 4- member district has been trending LDP for a while now.  LDP and KP has nominated 1 candidate each while DP which has memories of DPJ strength here nominated 2 candidate.  JCP nominated 1.  Then taking advantage of the pro-LDP trend as well as the opposition split running 3 candidates here LDP decided to back a ex-YP incumbent to run as an independent to try to capture a third seat.   With part of the old YP bloc with LDP-KP now the current baseline is LDP-KP (1 LDP 1 KP 1 LDP backed independent) 48.5, Center-Left opposition (2 DP and 1 SDP candidate) 28.5, JCP 14.5, non-LDP Right (1 ORA 1 PJK) 8.5.  In my view the result will look something like

LDP          19.5
DP#1        17
KP            15
JCP           14.5
Ind(LDP)   14
DP#2          9.5
ORA            7.5
SDP            2
PJK             1

JCP will count on tactical voting by DP while LDP-backed Independent will count on tactical voting by LDP as well as ORA/PJK.  I feel that right now JCP has a slight edge over the LDP-backed independent.  
 


In 愛知(Aichi) where it is also a 4- district is a old DPJ/DP stronghold which has been weakened by the defection of the DPJ right wing splinter TCJ.  Although TCJ has been eating into LDP vote recently as well.  This time around ORA/TCJ formed an alliance and will back a TCJ candidate to try to capture the 4th seat from DP.  The current baseline is LDP-KP (1 LDP 1 KP) 39, center-left opposition (2 DP 1 SDP), JCP 12, non-LDP right (1 ORA-TCJ 1 PJK).   In my view the result will look something like

LDP            24
DP#1         19
KP              15
DP#2         14
ORA/TCJ     13
JCP             12
SDP             2
PJK              1

ORA/TCJ will rely on tactical voting from LDP to try to beat out DP#2.  DP will count on good vote allocation between its two candidates as well as tactical voting from JCP.  Help from JCP to DP is unlikely as JCP itself is hoping to win the seat itself which is still possible.  All things equal my view is that DP has the edge over ORA/TCJ and JCP given the long term strength of the DPJ/DP in Aichi.

[jaichind]

Embattled Tokyo Governor 舛添 要一(Masuzoe Yōichi) now faces two separate monitions of no confidence from ORA and JCP separately in the Tokyo city council.   For it to pass it would require 2/3 of the council must be attendence and 3/4 in attendance must vote for it.  There is talk that LDP and KP will have to make a call on how long they can back Masuzoe.  There seems to be an consensus that it is likely that LDP and KP will have no choice but to back the motion of no confiance.  In such a case Masuzoe will be gone and there will be yet another midterm election for Tokyo Governor on top of 2012 (Ishihara resigning to join national politics) and 2014 (Naoki having to resign over a money scandal).

[Vega]

Embattled Tokyo Governor 舛添 要一(Masuzoe Yōichi) now faces two separate monitions of no confidence from ORA and JCP separately in the Tokyo city council.   For it to pass it would require 2/3 of the council must be attendence and 3/4 in attendance must vote for it.  There is talk that LDP and KP will have to make a call on how long they can back Masuzoe.  There seems to be an consensus that it is likely that LDP and KP will have no choice but to back the motion of no confiance.  In such a case Masuzoe will be gone and there will be yet another midterm election for Tokyo Governor on top of 2012 (Ishihara resigning to join national politics) and 2014 (Naoki having to resign over a money scandal).

I can't help but see this becoming more common, which is both a shame in that stability will be destroyed, but also perhaps positive in that Governors will be held to account more so than in the past - to the level that Prime Ministers are.

[jaichind]

The word is that LDP internal polling shows that Masuzoe is costing LDP-KP votes and as a result key Tokyo LDP kingpins will visit Masuzoe as early as tomorrow to tell him that he has to go ASAP.   We will see what comes of this. Masuzoe so far seems determined to hang on.  

[jaichind]

LDP also files a motion of no confidence in the Tokyo City Council against Masuzoe.  Masuzoe seems to still want to hang on.  His argument is that for him to step down would mean an election right during the Rio Olympics in which case a stand in Tokyo Governor would need to appear to take over the Olympic flag at the end of the Rio Olympics as Tokyo is the next host.  What Masuzoe is offering is for him to sell his second home and pay back all the public money he spent on personal purchases as well as return his salary as well.  Then after the Rio Olympics is over then he will discuss stepping down.  I guess his gamble is that after Rio Olympics is over the July 10th Upper House elections will be over as well and the pressure on LDP to get rid of him would dissipate allowing him to keep on going.  All this will come to a head in the next couple of days.  It is now a matter of how much damage he will do to LDP-KP.   

[jaichind]

Kyodo poll 4 weeks before the election for PR vote is

LDP           27.2
KP              5.4
DP            11.7

Kyodo polls has been historically much less friendly toward LDP.  The last Kyodo poll 2 weeks before the 2013 Upper House election was

Latest Kyodo poll.

LDP            29.8
DPJ              7.1
NKP             5.6

LDP-KP was 35.4 in 2013 and now it is 32.6.  Back in 2013 LDP-KP ended up 48.9 in PR vote.  Looking at the Kyodo poll in comparison to 2013 it seems LDP-KP is headed toward 45%-46% which is pretty close to my projection of 45% for LDP-KP.

[Vega]

From what I understand, Masuzoe used to be rather popular before he became Governor, wasn't he? So it's really a sign of how devastating this scandal must be that he has taken such a hit.

[jaichind]

From what I understand, Masuzoe used to be rather popular before he became Governor, wasn't he? So it's really a sign of how devastating this scandal must be that he has taken such a hit.

He is well know but not necessary that popular.  But well known is a prerequisite to being a candidate.  LDP-KP had no one else so they had to go with Masuzoe.  BTW Masuzoe got an offer from the LDP he could not refuse.   He just resigned.  There is talk that DP's 蓮舫 (Renhō) who is of Chinese descent (her father is a Chinese from Taiwan Province while her mother is Japanese) who is a DP Upper House MP representing Tokyo and running for reelection will most likely run for the center-left opposition in a Tokyo Governor election that will most likely take place after the July 10th Upper House election. Renhō is fairly well known so If so unless LDP-KP pulls a rabbit out of its hat then there is a solid chance that LDP-KP will lose the Tokyo governorship if Renhō runs.

[jaichind]

Now that another Tokyo Governor election is upon us.  I want to post a link of a campaign speech made in the 2007 Tokyo Governor election race by one 外山 恒一(Toyama Kōichi) who ran as an extreme Left anti-establishment candidate.  He got 15K votes with 0.27% vote share.  His speech is one of a kind.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=df7jOd6HcIY

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Renhō's pretty great so I really hope she throws her hat in the ring.

[Vega]

I could get behind a rather unknown person, like diplomat and former Vice Minister Yabunaka Mitoji.

But Renho would be good as well, though I do hope her image isn't sullied too early.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

I do hope her image isn't sullied too early.

Isn't it sad that this is the first concern one has whenever anyone good runs for Governor of Tokyo now?

[jaichind]

There are rumors that Toru Hashimoto might run for Tokyo Governor.  So far ORA are saying that it is a personal call by Hashimoto but it is unlikely he will run.  ORA did indicate that it is likely they will run their own candidate in the Tokyo governor race.

[jaichind]

It seems certain that the Masuzoe fiasco will hit LDP-KP prospects.   A senior KP  leader pointed out that KP party headquarters has been swamped with phone calls about Masuzoe.  LDP admits that this affair has given the opposition "perfect ammunition" and seem to be in damage control by trying to shift the topic to talk about Abenomics on the stomp.

[jaichind]

It seems the current frontrunner for the LDP candidate for Tokyo governor is one 桜井俊  (Sakurai Shun) who is a long time bureaucrat and is well known because he is the father of a famous boy band member 櫻井 翔 (Sakurai Shō). 

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

damage control by trying to shift the topic to talk about Abenomics

ayy lmao

[jaichind]

AEJ founder and leader 松田公太(Matsuda Kōta) announces that he will not run for re-election in the Tokyo district in the Upper House elections and that he will retire from politics.  AEJ should wind up pretty  soon.  This is good news for ORA as Matsuda's votes most likely will head ORA's way although some will end up in LDP or DP as well.

[Zanas]

Now that another Tokyo Governor election is upon us.  I want to post a link of a campaign speech made in the 2007 Tokyo Governor election race by one 外山 恒一(Toyama Kōichi) who ran as an extreme Left anti-establishment candidate.  He got 15K votes with 0.27% vote share.  His speech is one of a kind.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=df7jOd6HcIY

I like the guy.