Japan 2016 - July 10

[jaichind]

Looks like Tokyo governor election will be 7/31.  DP's 蓮舫 (Renhō)  will have a choice to make.  I am not sure she is allowed to run in both the Upper House election and for Tokyo governor.  If she choose to run for Tokyo governor then DP will lose one sure seat in Tokyo.  ORA will for sure gain from this and capture the 6th seat.

[jaichind]

奈良(Nara) poll



Has

LDP                     37.0
DP (incumbent)   29.0
ORA                     12.2
HRP                       4.6 !!!
Undecided            17.2

HRP has 4.6 !!  Wow.  

Anyway my vote share calculation model which now uses LDP-KP to get 44.5% in the PR section has for Nara district major party only vote share  to be:

LDP    45.5
DP      38.0
ORA    16.5

Which seems pretty consistent with this poll except for this bizarre 4.6 for HRP.  This poll is pretty good news for DP as most likely polls at this stage would underestimate the DP vote share relative to LDP although the DP candidate being the incumbent mitigates this affect somewhat.  

[jaichind]

長野(Nagano) poll does not have topline results but has levels of support by party.  Here it is LDP incumbent vs DP (and HRP running also, of course.)

The poll has the LDP incumbent with 80% support of LDP voters, 70% support of KP voters and 20% of non-aligned voters.  It has the DP candidate with 90% support of DP voters, 70% of JCP voters, 60% of SDP voters, and 30% of non-aligned voters. 

JCP is very strong in Nagano and the consensus view is that DP should be able to defeat the LDP incumbent with JCP support.

My vote share calculation model which now uses LDP-KP to get 44.5% in the PR section has for Nara district major party only vote share  to be:

LDP     46.5
DP       53.5

which matches that general consensus. 

This poll seems pretty positive for LDP that is is neck-to-neck in non-aligned voters (20% vs 30%) which DP has to sweep to win.  Of course the caveat is that the LDP being the incumbent does suppress support in polls for the challenger who usually picks up the undecided in the election.    Anyway this poll says even if LDP loses it will be very close.

[jaichind]

JiJi poll has Abe cabinet approval at 46.1/34.  It also has 60.8% polled certain to vote in the Upper House election with 90.3% certain or probably to vote.  If these are anywhere close to the turnout figures it will be a fairly bad election day for KP JCP and to some extent LDP.  DP and to some extent ORA will benefit from higher turnout.  In 2013 Upper House and 2014 Lower House turnout were both around 52.6%.  2007 and 2010 Upper House elections which both had good vote shares for DPJ turnout were around 57%-58%.

[jaichind]

A study of which 1- member districts Abe is campaigning indicates what places the LDP is worried about.

6/3 福島(Fukushima)
6/8 山梨(Yamanashi)
6/9 山形(Yamagata)
6/10 奈良(Nara), 三重(Mie)
6/11 愛媛(Ehime)
6/12 長野(Nagano)
6/13 大分(Ōita)
6/14 岩手(Iwate) 宮城(Miyagi)
6/15 青森(Aomori) 秋田(Akita)
6/17 滋賀(Shiga)
6/18 新潟 (Niigata)

Generally this list represents places where the opposition is favored or has a significant shot at winning.

1)  沖縄(Okinawa) is not on the list but given how toxic Abe is there most likely they figured that it is best Abe does not campaign there.  

2) What is interesting about this list is that Northern prefectures where LDP should be have the advantage like 青森(Aomori) and 秋田(Akita) are also on the list.  It seems that the fear of TPP being unpopular in the North is true and the LDP's ground reports show that these stronger LDP areas in the North are under threat.  

3) 岩手(Iwate) being on the list despite the clear PLP advantage must be a desire to rally the LDP led anti-Ozawa coalition there plus trying to stick it to Ozawa.

4) It is interesting that 奈良(Nara) is also on the list.  Here LDP should have a significant edge but it seems that LDP is fearful that the ORA will mainly draw LDP voters giving the DP incumbent a significant chance.  Note that in 岐阜(Gifu) a DP incumbent is also running which means that while LDP is favored DP will keep it close.  But because ORA is not running there Abe is not spending time there.  

5) The most surprising is that 愛媛(Ehime) is on the list.  Here a center-left independent (ex-DPJ MP) is running as an opposition alliance (DP-PLP-SDP-JCP) common candidate in this LDP stronghold.  There is no reason to believe why the LDP should not win by a landslide margin (60-40) despite a united front candidate.  One key factor in my model that gives LDP such a strong position is that the 2014 PFG vote was very strong in Ehime in addition to strong LDP-KP vote.  A center-left opposition unity candidate should rally the PFG vote around LDP, according to my model.   Also the LDP is running an incumbant which is another bonus.  Somehow the LDP is scared enough to have Abe go campaign here.  There must be something going on at the grassroots level where the opposition candidate is gaining unexpected level of traction.

[jaichind]

It seems that  蓮舫 (Renhō)  will not run for Tokyo governor and instead focus on the Upper House elections.  It seems in LDP circles there is growing pressure for LDP to nominate no other than ORA founder and former Osaka Governor Toru Hashimoto as the LDP candidate for Tokyo Governor after ORA ruled out ORA nominating Hashimoto for the post.

[jaichind]

A poll for PR section for 長野(Nagano)



has

LDP              33.6
DP                20.1
JCP                8.9
KP                  4.1
ORA               1.3
SDP               1.2
PJK                0.2
NPR               0.2
PLP                0.1
non-aligned  27.3

Given how DP is polling in national PR section it is clear that Nagano will have a way above average performance for DP.  These sorts of numbers should imply that DP is in good shape to win.  In fact using the other Nagano poll

長野(Nagano) poll does not have topline results but has levels of support by party.  Here it is LDP incumbent vs DP (and HRP running also, of course.)

The poll has the LDP incumbent with 80% support of LDP voters, 70% support of KP voters and 20% of non-aligned voters.  It has the DP candidate with 90% support of DP voters, 70% of JCP voters, 60% of SDP voters, and 30% of non-aligned voters. 

Yields

LDP    35.2
DP      33.2

Given the fact that DP tends to underpoll their final performance this poll seems to imply a narrow DP victory.

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

It seems that  蓮舫 (Renhō)  will not run for Tokyo governor and instead focus on the Upper House elections.

I'd love to see her in a more prominent position, but it's good to see she's willing to take one for the team.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Jesus Christ let him go away.

[jaichind]

NNN poll

Abe cabinet approval   43.3/39.5



PR list vote

LDP         34.6 (-0.7)
KP            4.8 (-1.1)
ORA          1.5 (-0.8 )
PJK           0.0 (-0.1)
NPR          0.1 (+0.1)
DP          15.7 (+3.1)
SDP          1.2 (--)
PLP           0.3 (--)
JCP           5.2 (-0.2)

Mostly shows that the G7 summit boost is wearing off which is expected.

As a comparison in 2013 Upper House election the last known NNN poll and results were

2013 poll

LDP      38%  ->   result 34.6%
DPJ        7%   ->  result 13.4%
JCP        5%   ->  result   9.6%

On this basis it seems LDP-KP is on route to a PR section result of 44%-45% which is pretty close to my current baseline of LDP-KP of 44.5%.

[jaichind]

A Kyodo News survey of Upper House candidates by party found some interesting results.

On the issue of revising the Constitution under the Abe administration.  72% of LDP candidates was for such an action.  While 0% of KP candidates were for this action with, 31% against, and 69% declining to state their position.  As a party, KP has proposed "adding" new ideas and clauses to the Constitution, apparently distancing itself from Abe's position. And KP leader Natsuo Yamaguchi has said revising the country's supreme law "will not be a campaign issue" in the July election.  I guess on the whole KP is not for such an action but does not want to risk offending Abe so most of them take the approach of "no comment."  98% of DP candidate and 100% of JCP candidates are opposed to such an action.  Only 28% of ORA candidates supports revising constitution under Abe rest has no comment.   I guess they are for it as long as it is not Abe but Abe plus ORA doing it.




On the topic of Abe's recent decision to postpone again a planned consumption tax hike just 49.2 percent of possible LDP candidates and 46.2 percent of the KP candidates expressed approval, while 75.5 percent of DP candidates did so.  So the delay of consumption tax increase seems more popular with the DP base than LDP-KP base.  

[jaichind]

Yomiuri poll on PR section

LDP     35 (-7)
KP         7 (+2)
ORA       7 (+2)
DP       12 (+1)
JCP        4 (-1)

Back in 2013 around the same time Yomiuri poll around the same time had

LDP      42
KP          6
JRP         5
YP          5
DPJ        9
JCP        4

On this basis LDP-KP is en route to around 43%-44% on the PR vote.  It does seem that ORA is having a surge and mostly at the expense of LDP.

[jaichind]

Mainichi poll

Abe cabinet approval   42/39

PR list vote

LDP      30 (-6)
KP         5 (-2)
ORA      5 (+2)
DP       14 (+2)
JCP        6 (-2)

Same trend of LDP losing steam due to the G7 summit effect wearing off with some support going to ORA.  We are mostly headed toward the situation in March-April but with the center-left opposition more united.

Back in 2013 Mainichi poll around the same time had

LDP          37
KP             8
JRP            8
YP             8
DPJ           7
JCP           4

Which would imply that either the Mainichi pro-LDP house effect is a lot lower than 2013 or LDP-KP is in big trouble with an implied PR vote share of around 40%-41%.

The good news for LDP is that on the Masuzoe scandal 61% see it as an issue with Masuzoe as a person and 29% see it as an issue with LDP-KP.

[jaichind]

Asahi  poll

Abe cabinet approval 45/36

PR list vote

LDP    38 (-1)
KP        7 (--)
ORA      4 (-2)
DP      15 (+3)
JCP      6 (-1)

Back in 2013 Asahi poll close to the election had

LDP    43
KP        8
JRP       6
YP        6
DPJ      6
JCP      6

Which would imply LDP-KP PR vote share of 42%-43% this time around.  Unlike the other polls ORA seems to be falling back.  Like all other polls it has DP rising at the expense of JCP.

Asahi historically has been anti-LDP but its polls historically tends to have the biggest pro-LDP house effect.

[jaichind]

I think overall the electorate is likely to be 55% for the ruling parties (LDP-KP) and other center-right and/or hawkish parties (including HRP) while 45% are for center-left opposition parties.   The seat distribution will really be a function of how the vote shares are distributed within these two blocs.

[jaichind]

NHK poll

Abe cabinet approval  47/34

Party support




LDP          33.8  (-4.3)
KP              3.9  (-0.8 )
ORA            0.9  (-0.3)
DP              8.6 (+0.9)
SDP            0.9 (+0.1)
PLP             0.1 (---)
JCP             3.6 (+0.4)

This is the ties worst LDP-KP performance in NHK polls since Abe came into power.  The last bottom was back in Aug 2015 at the depth of the security bill debate when LDP-KP saw similar numbers.

Historically LDP-KP PR vote share would be NHK LDP+KP plus another 2%-3% which would put it around 40%-41%.  But I do not believe this is the final NHK poll before the election.  The one right before it should see the electorate more polarized since this poll question is not the PR vote section but party support.  LDP-KP should see their support go up 2-3% in the final NHK poll or else it will be a bad election night for LDP-KP.

One way or another this poll confirms that LDP-KP is falling right before the election and peaked too soon back in May during the G7 summit success.  

[jaichind]

Local 福島(Fukushima) poll has Abe cabinet approval at 34.6/47.2.  Hard to see how LDP wins here given these numbers. 

[jaichind]

Niconico (ニコニコ) which is a Japanese video sharing website came out with their projections for the Upper House elections.  They seems to take surveys of their users and were pretty accurate in 2013 and 2014 elections.  They came out with


 
                District         PR         Total
LDP            39              18          57
KP                7                7          14
ORA             4                4            8
DP             15               10         25
PLP             2                 1            3
SDP            0                  1           1
JCP             3                 7          10
AO              1                 0           1
Pro-DP Ind   2                 0           2

I allocated their 5 independent winners to the right camps  1 AO in 沖縄(Okinawa), 1 DP in 山形(Yamagata) and 2 PLP in 岩手(Iwate) and 新潟(Niigata)) and 2 pro-DP independent. 

Their district projections pretty much match the Japanese political discussion boards with the exception of 愛知(Aichi) where they expect JCP to win the 4th seat as opposed to DP.  This exception is out of the mainstream and I consider unlikely to take place.

Overall this projection seems pretty mainstream.  I has LDP-KP PR vote share around 49% but only allocates 4 PR seats to ORA which implies that ORA only gets around 8%.  In that sense this projection is not a wild projection, it just assumes a lot of ORA votes tactically vote for LDP in the PR section which is completely plausible.  A surprise is that it expect PLP to win a PR seat which most people, including me, think is impossible especially with anti-military expansion VPA running separately and splitting the PLP vote.

[jaichind]

Japan Agriculture News had a poll of farmers.



It found Abe cabinet approval at 39/59 which is almost certainly due to the pro-TPP of the Abe Cabinet.

In terms of PR vote it had

LDP        41
DP          17
JCP          9

It seems LDP support among farmers did not really fall that much despite the lower approval rating of Abe Cabinet but DP and JCP support has gone up, most likely in Northern prefectures where the anti-TPP sentiment is stronger.  DP support closing on DPJ levels of support back in 2007 and 2010 Upper House elections while JCP support among farmers seems unprecedented at 9%. 

[jaichind]

Gendai or Modern magazine claimed that it secured an internal DP document which asses the chances of DP or de facto DP independents.   Not sure if this is a true leak or a planned leak.  It rates each candidate based on support among non-aligned voters as well as name recognition relative to their main opponent.  It comes up with a grade rating from A+ to C- where B is tossup.



The report does contain some surprises

For 北海道(Hokkaido) the report has both DP candidates at A- implying that DP will capture 2 out of 3 seats over the 2 LDP and 1 JCP candidate.   This seems like a stretch given the bigger LDP-KP vote bloc and the fact that there are 3 opposition candidates.  For this to take place there are several conditions that must be met

1) NDP support for LDP ends up not delivering that many votes that LDP was not going to win already.
2) JCP tactical voting for the weaker of the DP candidate
3) DP splits its votes evenly between its two candidates
4) pro-LDP independent and PJK together capture a fairly large vote share (something on the order of 5%-7%) from the LDP vote bloc
5) LDP does not split its votes evenly between its two candidates.

All in all possible but not likely.

青森(Aomori) at B+ which means DP is favored.  Aomori is fairly strong LDP for a Northern prefecture.  I guess perhaps anti-TPP sentiment could produce a DP upset.

秋田(Akita) at C+ seems surprising given that Aomori is at B+.  The general view is that Akita is a much more likely candidate for DP to pull off an upset in the North given the anti-TPP sentiments.  From a PVI point of view LDP is much weaker in Akita than Aomori but DP seems to feel even with an ex-DPJ MP running its chances are low.  This assessment might speak to the personal strength of the LDP incumbent.

宮城(Miyagi) and 山形(Yamagata) at A+ while 福島(Fukushima) at B.  This seems to go against conventional wisdom that DP is very favored in Fukushima but it is neck-to-neck in Miyagi and Yamagata.  DP projection has it other way around.

In 千葉(Chiba) DP rates it two candidate B+ and B.  This seems optimistic.  With ORA not running here, PJK not expected to get that many votes, and JCP also running it seems very unlikely that DP can win 2 out of 3 seats in a prefecture that is trending LDP anyway.  The second DP candidate is an ex-YP incumbent.  DP's analysis stem from that he can bring in a lot of personal and ex-YP vote plus a maldistribution of the LDP vote between its two candidates can give it a victory.  I guess all this is possible but very unlikely.  

In 神奈川(Kanagawa) DP rates its two candidates fairly low at B and B-.  They must feel that ORA and JCP are running strong here in addition to LDP-KP which is trying to capture 3 out of 4 seats.  If this projection is true then DP for sure made a mistake nominating 2 candidates instead of 1 since this projection senses the risk that LDP-KP will win 3 out of 4 seats and JCP beat out DP for the 4th and last seat leaving DP with nothing.

山梨(Yamanashi) rated at A-. This seems optimistic.  Before an ex-DPJ turned YP MP entered the race running an independent the race was seen as neck-to-neck.  With the DP rebel taking a bloc of the vote the race is seem to be at best neck-to-neck/lean LDP.  But I guess DP projects that the DP rebel will not have that much of net affect and DP will win this seat.

In 東京(Tokyo) DP projection seems pretty mainstream that Renho is for sure a winner and that a second DP candidate is in a 3 way tie (rated B) with LDP and ORA for the last 2 seats.

長野(Nagano) and 三重(Mie) are rated B+ and B which seems fairly low given the general consensus that DP is in a strong position here after adding the JCP vote to the DP vote bloc.  In Nagano JCP is very strong and there could be issues for the local JCP to accept supporting DP.  In Mie the local DP is fairly anti-JCP.  These ratings might reflect that at the grassroots level DP-JCP collaboration not working as well.

滋賀(Shiga) rated a B- when the consensus seems to be that DP should have at least a 50/50 shot at winning.  Shiga is in Kinki so perhaps the DP view is that the larger ORA bloc here is going to LDP wholesale making it harder for DP to win.

岐阜(Gifu) rated B-.  The general view is that DP will keep this close but in the end does not have a realistic shot at winning.  This prefecture has been trending DPJ/DP for a while.  On the other hand the 2014 PFG vote was pretty strong here and it will swing to LDP to beat back DP.  This rating seems to indicate that if DP has a good night DP can pull off an upset.

The two candidates in 愛知(Aichi) are rated A+ and B.  The B rating for the second candidate seems odd given that DP is on track to win both seats.  There has been talk of a JCP surge in Aichi so perhaps DP's view is that JCP could capture the 4th and final seat from DP.

大阪(Osaka)  rated at B+. This is a surprise. It is expected that LDP and KP will win 1 seat each in Osaka easy while ORA will capture at least one with ORA vs JCP for the 4th and last seat.  DP's role here is more about how much DP tactical voting will take place to support JCP against ORA.  But this projection seems to project that DP has a solid shot if winning which seems unlikely.  This part of the report could be there to prevent a total collapse of the DP in Osaka

兵庫(Hyōgo) rated at B+.  This is optimistic but plausible.  There might be JCP tactical voting for DP for DP to beat out KP for the 3rd and last seat after LDP and ORA will win one each.

大分(Ōita) rated at B.  This seems is a bit optimistic as the general view is that this is neck-to-neck with LDP with a slight advantage.  Still if the election turns DP's way overall DP has a solid shot at  Ōita.  

奈良(Nara) and 愛媛(Ehime) both at B- is interesting.  I give DP very low chances of winning in both areas but this rating does fit the recent narrative that LDP is worried about these two districts.  In Nara it is about the fear that ORA will capture a good bloc of LDP votes and in Ehime the pro-DP ex-MP has a lot of personal support and could pull a surprise over LDP.

[jaichind]

ANN poll has Abe Cabinet approval at 44.3%



PR vote share at

LDP          32.6
KP              6.4
ORA           2.0
NPR            0.1
PJK             0.0
DP            13.4
PLP            0.4
SDP           1.1
JCP            6.4

Back in 2013 ANN around the same time before the election had

LDP         42.8
KP            4.1
JRP           4.3
YP            4.7
DPJ        10.6
PLP          0.6
SDP         1.0
JCP          5.5

Using the 2013 calibration LDP is on course to get around 41%-42% of the vote on the PR section

[jaichind]

A Japanese food court ad that mimics the various election posters



One section choice is "Liberal Wine Drinking Party" (to mimic LDP) another is "Fresh seafood Association" (to mimic ORA)


What real election posters look like (in this case in Tokyo.)

[jaichind]

Official list of candidates by party is out



The list of parties that will run on PR by NHK by most likely vote share ranking

LDP
DP
KP
JCP
ORA
SDP
PLP
PJK
HRP
VPA (Voice of Public Anger which is an anti-military anti-constitutional change bloc)
NPB (Non Party Bloc which is an e-democracy micro party)

In terms of district seats the number of candidates by party are

LDP   48
DP     33
KP       7
JCP    14
ORA   10
SDP     4
PJK    10
NPR     1  (in Tokyo)
TCJ      1 (in Aichi in alliance with ORA)
HRP   45 (HRP will run a candidate in every election district)
VPA    1  (in Tokyo)
NPB    4
Misc    4
Ind    37 (includes 2 LDP rebels, 2 DP rebels, 16 Opposition Grand Alliance candidates (2 of them are PLP), 1 AO, 2 ex-DPJ MPs, rest center-left independent), 1 ex-YP, 1 PJK rebel), 2 center-left candidates in Tokyo which are likely to take DP votes, 2 extreme left candidates in Tokyo which are likely to take JCP votes)

There seems to be no coordination between ORA and PJK. It seems PJK is running everywhere ORA is running with the de facto effect of lowering ORA chances.  Not clear why these two natural allies are not coordinating their efforts.

Tokyo will be a free for all.  The second LDP candidate is weak which gives DP and ORA their chance.  PJK, NPR, and NW (Restoration Political Party - New Wind which is an extreme right monarchist party) will drain ORA votes while SDP and other center-left candidates will take votes from DP.  A couple of extreme left candidates as well as VPA will take votes from JCP although JCP is pretty safe to win a seat in Tokyo.  How much votes these minor parties take will determine which two of DP, LDP, and ORA will win the 5th and 6th seat.

[Zanas]

It seems LDP is exsuding some support to Komeito : what would be the reasons for that ?

[jaichind]

It seems LDP is exsuding some support to Komeito : what would be the reasons for that ?

Not really.  It is the polls that are skewed and need unskewing.  KP is based on the  Buddhist  movement Soka Gakkai.  Historically and even today Soka Gakkai is not seen as part of the mainstream and many view it as a cult.  KP during the 1960s to 1990s had an anti-LDP orientation and was part of many opposition efforts to topple LDP.  The 1995 Tokyo subway sarin attack by the Aum Shinrikyo cult was a game changer.  Soka Gakkai became fearful that it will be put in the cult watchlist and perhaps disbanded.  The KP goal after that was to make sure that Soka Gakkai is seen as part of the mainstream.  Alliance with LDP and being part of the establishment was part of that strategy.   Of course many in Japan still see  Soka Gakkai as out of the mainstream.  As a result many KP supporters (which is around 13%-15% of the electorate) would say they support LDP when polled which is somewhat true since KP is allied with LDP. As a result KP never polls above 5%-6% and LDP support in polls is artificially inflated.  This is why when I read Japanese polls I tend to read LDP+KP as representing LDP-KP support instead of trying to get a breakdown.  KP always gets between 13%-15%, rest is LDP in any assessment of LDP-KP overall vote share.

[jaichind]

It might be useful to talk a bit about PR nomination strategy by different parties.  The way the Upper House PR vote worked has changed over the years.  Originally it was a de facto 48 member all Japan district.  Meaning each party can nominate candidates and independents can run too.  Voters vote for one of the candidates and the top 48 are elected.  Celebrity independents often won this way plus the parties had to be careful about over-nominating or else their vote would be split.  This system was favorable to LDP since LDP was made up of many factions each with its own support base.  This system allows each factional base to turn out its voters and then also vote LDP in the district vote.

After 1998 this system was changed to be a Party PR system.  So independents were out.  Each party would nominate its candidates, a voter could vote for the party or a candidate which accrue to the party itself.  Based on the total votes a party gets seats are allocated by party.  Distribution within the party to determine who gets elected based on the seats each party is awarded  is based on how many personal votes each candidate gets.  Of course the purpose of the individual candidates is to turn out marginal voters to vote for a certain candidate which would then accrue to the party.

It is actually expensive for a party to nominate a candidate.  For each candidate a party nominates it cost around $60,000 to be paid to the Japan election commission.  This time around LDP is pretty conservative in nominating only 25 candidates.  LDP seems to feel that the personal pull of its candidates is not great and that nominating more candidates is not worth the ROI.  The JCP nominated a record 42 candidates (JCP is very fairly rich based on the revenue it makes from the JCP party newspaper).  This is because JCP withdrew from all 32 1- member districts.  JCP want each prefecture's JCP supporters to feel there is some JCP candidate from their region to vote for since many cannot vote JCP given JCP is not running a candidate in the single member districts.  JCP nominated candidates from pretty much all prefectures on the list so the JCP voter in each prefecture gets to vote for a JCP candidate from his/her prefecture.  There is no issue of over-nomination since the number of seats for JCP is determined by the total votes accrued.  The only cost is $$$ which JCP seems to want to spend.  ORA nominated a lot of PR candidates (18) given its size.  This is because ORA is trying to expand outside of Osaka and one way is to nominate candidates (many are ex-PFG, ex-DPJ, ex-YP politicians) from different regions  to try to turn out marginal voters for ORA based on their residual personal appeal.  Again ORA decided to burn a lot of cash for this just like JCP.