Georgia senate seats runoff(s) megathread

[SCNCmod]

Rs don't realize that this is a VBM Election, not same day voting and D's can run up score again like we did during the regular Election

It seems like I read that 1.7M VBM in the General... yet only 1.0M requested VBM ballots in the runoff (so far).  I hope this number will grow.  I can't imagine there being that much of a dropoff in runoff VBM- considering these voters are very (freshly) familiar with the process of VBM, which requires very little time commitment or inconvenience. 

[Tender Branson]

Bad news for the DEMs:

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/GA_RO.html

So far, there are 1.1 million mail ballot requests for the Special Elections, with 54% of requests coming from 65+ old voters.

There were 1.8 million mail ballot requests for the November GE, with 41% of requests coming from 65+ old voters.

65+ old voters went Trump+12.

[Rookie Yinzer]

Question:

I moved last week and forgot to update my address by yesterday. That means I can't vote, right? Don't want psychos accusing me of "voter fraud" or whatever the f*co.

I mean... if you moved within state I would just go vote from where you moved from. All of the races on the ballot are statewide so it's not like you're voting for a race where you don't live.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Bad news for the DEMs:

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/GA_RO.html

So far, there are 1.1 million mail ballot requests for the Special Elections, with 54% of requests coming from 65+ old voters.

There were 1.8 million mail ballot requests for the November GE, with 41% of requests coming from 65+ old voters.

65+ old voters went Trump+12.

Yeah, think I’m moving these closer to lean R. There are a lot of mixed signals from early data, but overall, the hard, objective early numbers don’t look particularly great. My guess is both these will end up around R+6, but I say that with little confidence; I could easily see R+14 or D+4 in the range of potential outcomes. Seems like the ATL metro doesn’t stand out as it did in the 2020 GE in terms of early absentee requests. We have to remember, there is still a lot of time for things to change, and there are a lot of missing data points, but any argument that argues Dems are favored seems like speculation at this point

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bad news for the DEMs:

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/GA_RO.html

So far, there are 1.1 million mail ballot requests for the Special Elections, with 54% of requests coming from 65+ old voters.

There were 1.8 million mail ballot requests for the November GE, with 41% of requests coming from 65+ old voters.

65+ old voters went Trump+12.

Yeah, think I’m moving these closer to lean R. There are a lot of mixed signals from early data, but overall, the hard, objective early numbers don’t look particularly great. My guess is both these will end up around R+6, but I say that with little confidence; I could easily see R+14 or D+4 in the range of potential outcomes. Seems like the ATL metro doesn’t stand out as it did in the 2020 GE in terms of early absentee requests. We have to remember, there is still a lot of time for things to change, and there are a lot of missing data points, but any argument that argues Dems are favored seems like speculation at this point

.

Warnock will beat Loeffler

[T0rM3nTeD]

Ballot dump.

Total of 71,586 ballots accepted so far. There were 1.32M in the GE.
Total of 1.103M ballots requested so far. There were 1.782M requested in the GE.

If they break the same way they did in the GE Senate Race, the breakdown would be:

Dems - 43,221
GOP - 28,365

[Bootes Void]

Bad news for the DEMs:

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/GA_RO.html

So far, there are 1.1 million mail ballot requests for the Special Elections, with 54% of requests coming from 65+ old voters.

There were 1.8 million mail ballot requests for the November GE, with 41% of requests coming from 65+ old voters.

65+ old voters went Trump+12.

Turnout always goes down in the runoffs, generally to be on the safe side, you shouldn't read too much into early voting and see how in-person goes before making a call

[Tender Branson]

My early guess would be:

55-45 Perdue/Ossoff
54-46 Löffler/Warnock

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

But the polls show Loeffler losing

[Tender Branson]

But the polls show Loeffler losing

Not all. Besides, the polls are bad these times.

[T0rM3nTeD]

Bad news for the DEMs:

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/GA_RO.html

So far, there are 1.1 million mail ballot requests for the Special Elections, with 54% of requests coming from 65+ old voters.

There were 1.8 million mail ballot requests for the November GE, with 41% of requests coming from 65+ old voters.

65+ old voters went Trump+12.

Regarding the bolded, there were only 1.32M actually returned, so it's possible those 480K people who realized they weren't going to vote by mail didn't bother requesting them this time since they just did it a month ago. I think we have to wait for EIP numbers for a more accurate comparison.

[VAR]

My early guess would be:

55-45 Perdue/Ossoff
54-46 Löffler/Warnock

When adjusted for Lin Wood bump

52-48 Ossoff
53-47 Warnock

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

The two nutcases might unfortunately be narrowly favored at this stage but they're not winning by ten points.

[KaiserDave]

My early guess would be:

55-45 Perdue/Ossoff
54-46 Löffler/Warnock

When adjusted for Lin Wood bump

52-48 Ossoff
53-47 Warnock

Wrong.

54-46 Perdue because of swingy suburbs like Gwinett
55-45 Warnock because Loeffler is a weak candidate

[VAR]

https://twitter.com/rpyers/status/1336386481061916672

[MT Treasurer]

My early guess would be:

55-45 Perdue/Ossoff
54-46 Löffler/Warnock

Wrong thread:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=89156.0

[KaiserDave]

My early guess would be:

55-45 Perdue/Ossoff
54-46 Löffler/Warnock

Wrong thread:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=89156.0

I think it's insanely obvious that Martin is going to win to anyone who's not a hack

[Rookie Yinzer]

Bad news for the DEMs:

https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/GA_RO.html

So far, there are 1.1 million mail ballot requests for the Special Elections, with 54% of requests coming from 65+ old voters.

There were 1.8 million mail ballot requests for the November GE, with 41% of requests coming from 65+ old voters.

65+ old voters went Trump+12.

Hush. This means nothing. Many people who requested are simply going to do IPEV. Stop.

Y'all really in here trying to call the races before a single person has voted in person. LOL.

[Bootes Void]

apparently 7% of voters who are voting in the runoffs did not vote in the general, I wonder who they are? its weird

[GALeftist]

apparently 7% of voters who are voting in the runoffs did not vote in the general, I wonder who they are? its weird

My take is that it's voters who now realize that their vote actually matters, but idk if this group is primarily red or blue.

[Pollster]

apparently 7% of voters who are voting in the runoffs did not vote in the general, I wonder who they are? its weird

My take is that it's voters who now realize that their vote actually matters, but idk if this group is primarily red or blue.

Republican turnout in the general was nearly 90%, so I'd be astonished if they're managing to turn out voters who didn't vote in the general at this point.

[ProgressiveModerate]

apparently 7% of voters who are voting in the runoffs did not vote in the general, I wonder who they are? its weird

My take is that it's voters who now realize that their vote actually matters, but idk if this group is primarily red or blue.

My guess is it would lean blue. As another poster here mentioned here earlier, that group is:

White- 44%
Black- 35%
Hispanic- 2%
Asian- 3%
Other- 16%

There's not much else to go off of, so it's really just an assumption, but it'll definately be an interesting group to watch.

[GALeftist]

apparently 7% of voters who are voting in the runoffs did not vote in the general, I wonder who they are? its weird

My take is that it's voters who now realize that their vote actually matters, but idk if this group is primarily red or blue.

Republican turnout in the general was nearly 90%, so I'd be astonished if they're managing to turn out voters who didn't vote in the general at this point.

Inshallah. I also know that voter registration groups (at least the ones I've worked with) have been mega focused on voters who turn 18 between the election and the runoff, so that's probably at least a significant part of that group, and I have to imagine that those voters are overwhelmingly Democratic.

[It’s so Joever]

apparently 7% of voters who are voting in the runoffs did not vote in the general, I wonder who they are? its weird

My take is that it's voters who now realize that their vote actually matters, but idk if this group is primarily red or blue.

Republican turnout in the general was nearly 90%, so I'd be astonished if they're managing to turn out voters who didn't vote in the general at this point.

Inshallah. I also know that voter registration groups (at least the ones I've worked with) have been mega focused on voters who turn 18 between the election and the runoff, so that's probably at least a significant part of that group, and I have to imagine that those voters are overwhelmingly Democratic.

They are Ossoff Loeffler voters.
They love Ossoff because he is a cute young millennial, but they also are voting Loeffler because they want one male and female for equality.

[MT Treasurer]

apparently 7% of voters who are voting in the runoffs did not vote in the general, I wonder who they are? its weird

My take is that it's voters who now realize that their vote actually matters, but idk if this group is primarily red or blue.

Republican turnout in the general was nearly 90%, so I'd be astonished if they're managing to turn out voters who didn't vote in the general at this point.

Inshallah. I also know that voter registration groups (at least the ones I've worked with) have been mega focused on voters who turn 18 between the election and the runoff, so that's probably at least a significant part of that group, and I have to imagine that those voters are overwhelmingly Democratic.

They are Ossoff Loeffler voters.
They love Ossoff because he is a cute young millennial, but they also are voting Loeffler because they want one male and female for equality.

I don’t think that’s the reason they’re voting against Warnock....