NYT LIVE POLL THREAD:

[Jeppe]

Not so fast, says the 30-44 year old college educated white woman.

[Jeppe]

Can someone describe to me a Manchin-Miller voter please?

Probably people who don't know who Ojeda is, and assumes he's a random Democrat. There's probably quite a few of them, given the low-fund nature of this race.

[Jeppe]

Weighting by education is going to really hurt Ojeda's poll numbers. He's up 39 among white college graduates. But he's down by 29 among whites with no college degree.

Only 16% of the congressional district's residents have at least a Bachelor's degree, 84% don't.

[Jeppe]

It appears VA-07 will be added to the mix today.  This is definitely a district I'm happy about getting a high-quality poll.

Heck No. There are at least 30 more districts I would want to see done before this one.

I am quite happy that they are polling some Lean/Likely R races and not just the tossups. I think we can be pretty confident from other polls and information that the races that most prognosticators have as tossups are in fact tossup/competitive (and in some cases like MN-03, maybe really more like lean Dem at this point).

But what I have less of a firm idea about is to what extent the Lean/Likely R races are really competitive or not. Are races like VA-07 really competitive? A surprising poll result could potentially change my opinion on that more easily than it could change my opinion about the races that are currently rated tossups.

Democrats outvoted Republicans by a healthy margin, despite both parties having competitive primaries (VA-07 Dem primary, VA Senate GOP primary).

It's like OH-12, with the strong urban-rural divide, but the district overall is more Democratic-leaning and has a stronger Democratic candidate.

[Jeppe]

Miller actually looks somewhat pretty in her NYT photo. I always remember her from unflattering photos like this.

[Jeppe]

Yeah, the sample size is small enough where it's probably not at all indicative of what the results will be like when we're at ~500 respondents.

[Jeppe]

Oof, Miller +5 now.

[Jeppe]

Phillips is up by 10 now, which just about puts him outside of the MoE.

Yeah, somebody is getting triaged soon. Republicans might spend more effort trying to take the two Democratic seats (MN-01 & MN-08) rather than trying to save their two incumbents in MN-02 and MN-03.

[Jeppe]

I think Miller seems to be heading for a double-digit lead. Not at all a comfortable margin for a district that Trump won by 49 points, but forcing Republicans to invest here in the first place is great. Less money to go to around for other districts like VA-02 and VA-07, where they might be caught flat-footed.

[Jeppe]

Gender gap in polls so far,

CA-49: 19 (10/-9)
KY-03: 10 (8/-10)
IL-06: 20 (9/-11)
IL-12: 1 (-1, 0)
MN-03: 31 (25/-6)
MN-08: 21 (12/-9)
WV-03: 40 (13/-27)

West Virginia's gender gap is crazy, while IL-12's gender gap is also crazy, but in a different manner (Democrat doing better with men than women).

[Jeppe]

I wan't more VA-07, why did they stop polling there? Get back on the phones, people.

They don't want to call people past a certain time. Some people (especially seniors) have early bedtimes, don't you know!

[Jeppe]

Are we seriously writing off Ojeda based on one poll?

Well, Republicans have outperformed their summer polling by 15 points on average since 2004 in West Virginia. This sort of lines up with that. The lowest polling drop was the now GOP Governor Jim Justice, who was leading 10% and ended up winning by 7%

[Jeppe]

The WV-03 poll is officially done. Miller +8.

[Jeppe]

If there’s a district where Democrats could do better among whites than Hispanics, it could be FL-26. A lot of white people in the district live in Key West, a safely Democratic tourist hot-spot, and a lot of the Hispanics are Cuban-Americans who lean Republican.

[Jeppe]

If there’s a district where Democrats could do better among whites than Hispanics, it could be FL-26. A lot of white people in the district live in Key West, a safely Democratic tourist hot-spot, and a lot of the Hispanics are Cuban-Americans who lean Republican.

I actually don’t know, but is Key West “safely Democratic?”  Its county voted for Trump.  I never made it to Key West, but Key Largo seemed pretty Republican.

Key West itself went strongly for Clinton, the rest of the county went for Trump.

[Jeppe]

Looks like we’re headed to suburban Los Angeles! Siena is polling CA-25 and Monmouth is polling CA-39.

[Jeppe]

So far the Culberson poll is the biggest surprise from this batch, IMHO. Expected something more like 44-42 Fletcher. But that's not even close to within the margin.

He's much more popular than I imagined (and Fletcher is less popular). Starting to wonder if we've really underestimated how well suburbanites especially can distinguish between Trump and their GOP Reps.

The difference is that Clinton won CO-06 and MN-03 by 9 points, she won TX-07 by 1 point.

[Jeppe]

Looks like we’re headed to suburban Los Angeles! Siena is polling CA-25 and Monmouth is polling CA-39.

Any word on when the Monmouth poll is out? CA-39 is one of the districts I'm most interested in.

Tomorrow, likely around 1 pm, which is usually when they release their polls.

[Jeppe]

Why do they have 11,000 calls here just from last night, and still only 8,000 calls in NM-02 over fours days?

The amounts of calls that different call centers have capacity to do at different times varies. So there probably just happened to be one of the call centers with higher capacity doing CA-25. Also, not all call centers can call all districts (you need some Spanish speakers for NM-02, for example).

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The CA seats may be a bit tougher in that Dems are reliant there more on Hispanics certainly than MN-03 and to a slightly lesser extent CO-06. And the NYT/Siena weighting and turnout model emphasizes college whites, not so much Hispanics. CA-25 is only 45% white, in comparison to CO-06 being 72% white.

Yeah, a trend I've noticed is that the more Hispanics there are in the district, the stronger the white college-educateds are for Republicans. The only exception is FL-26, where Hispanics are actually the Republican base.

[Jeppe]

Looks like we’re headed to suburban Los Angeles! Siena is polling CA-25 and Monmouth is polling CA-39.

CA-25 is not really "suburban Los Angeles." It's separated from LA by a mountain range.

It’s literally still a part of Los Angeles county though.

[Jeppe]

Only 31% of respondents know Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, but she's behind an incumbent with a +25 favourability rating (52/27) by only 3%, wow. I feel more optimistic about this race now, that's the type of name recognition-based lead that a metric ton of ads can easily override.

Also, I smell a rating change in NM-02, especially if Torres Small maintains her lead over Herrell after we cross the 500 respondent mark.

[Jeppe]

My predictions

TX-32: Sessions (R) +4
CA-49: Levin (D) +6

[Jeppe]

My prediction

CA-45: Walters +2
PA-07: Wild +7

[Jeppe]

Katie Porter holding up well in CA-45, she's up 6 points with over 300 respondents. It looks more and more likely that Republicans will only be left with Young Kim as their only congresscritter from Orange County come 2019.

[Jeppe]

Susan Wild's 9 point lead right now (with almost 400 respondents) is much closer to the 11 point lead she had a in a poll conducted several months ago by Muhlenberg, than to Monmouth's 3 point lead from earlier this month.