NYT LIVE POLL THREAD:

[Pollster]

Bad: VA-07

Yikes: TX-23, WV-03

Not a coincidence that these are the districts where they had the hardest time reaching young voters.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Predictions for KS-02 and FL-26:

KS-02 - Paul Davis (D) leads by 4
FL-26 Carlos Curbelo (R) leads by 7

[wesmoorenerd]

Predictions for KS-02 and FL-26:

KS-02 - Paul Davis (D) leads by 4
FL-26 Carlos Curbelo (R) leads by 7

I doubt Curbelo leads by that much, maybe like 5 at most.

[Brittain33]

My take on the results so far for the Dems:

Excellent: CO-06, MN-03

Good: MN-08, WI-01

Meh: CA-48, IL-06, IL-12, KY-06

Bad: VA-07

Yikes: TX-23, WV-03

A small lead for the Republican in VA-07 isn't that bad, and the Democrat losing in a Trump +50 district is just bad imo the times isn't warranted.

I would've expected Spanberger to be running a point or two behind, at worst. It's not a must-win seat, but it's part of the 10-15 seat buffer that'll really lock down Dem control of the House.

Remember that Northam lost VA-7 while doing extremely well statewide.

[RINO Tom]

Look at those college-educated whites propping up Golden’s lead!

Don’t show RINO Tom

Thanks a lot for pointing that out, guys ... not sure how I'll be able to enjoy the Cubs game this weekend knowing how college educated Whites are voting !!!!!

[wbrocks67]

My take on the results so far for the Dems:

Excellent: CO-06, MN-03

Good: MN-08, WI-01

Meh: CA-48, IL-06, IL-12, KY-06

Bad: VA-07

Yikes: TX-23, WV-03

A small lead for the Republican in VA-07 isn't that bad, and the Democrat losing in a Trump +50 district is just bad imo the times isn't warranted.

I would've expected Spanberger to be running a point or two behind, at worst. It's not a must-win seat, but it's part of the 10-15 seat buffer that'll really lock down Dem control of the House.

Remember that Northam lost VA-7 while doing extremely well statewide.

Not to mention serious problems with the <45 sample in VA-07. It barely represents 1/4 of the sample.

[Predictor]

Poliquin ahead by 3 at the moment.

[Florida Man for Crime]

FL-26 is live.

So far they have called 241 people anod not gotten a single response.

Nice response rate there!

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I would categorize three races differently:

Excellent: CO-06, MN-03

Good: MN-08, WI-01

Meh: IL-06, IL-12, KY-06, VA-07, WV-03

Bad: CA-48

Yikes: TX-23

[GeorgiaModerate]

FL-26 just hit 400 calls without a response yet.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Jeez, they are up to 437 people called and STILL no responses.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Guesses on how long it takes to get a response?  I'll say 617.

[Florida Man for Crime]

my guess is 666

[GeorgiaModerate]

Looks like it was around 550.

[Florida Man for Crime]

The first respondent in FL-26 was the 554th person (I think?) that they called.

They are an age 65+ non-college educated nonwhite female and are voting Dem.


So that was a response rate of 0.18% to get the first respondent. But then they fairly quickly got another 2 respondents it seems.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Jared Golden has fallen behind by 2 points, 45-43, with 207 respondents in. So much for Populism

--- edit Golden down 4 now, where are my WWC Maine Frencophone Populists?

On the other hand, the burbstomping in Colorado-06 is proceeding right on schedule, Coffman down 51-41 with 391 respondents. Will be tough for Coffman to improve too much with almost 4/5 of the poll done.

[ON Progressive]

Why is the response rate so terrible in FL-26? I know it has a lot of Hispanics, but the Hispanics that are in FL have much higher turnout than TX-23.

[wbrocks67]

It appears that only Republicans are answering their phones this afternoon.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Why is the response rate so terrible in FL-26? I know it has a lot of Hispanics, but the Hispanics that are in FL have much higher turnout than TX-23.

Just an educated guess, but FL gets much more political calls (and ads etc) in general, and people get tired of it and stop answering. Also, this is one of the few competitive districts in the state, which means even more calls. And pollsters likely often oversample Hispanics to try to get a representative sample in FL, which means even more calls still.

It could also be differences in the voter file phone match quality, which definitely differs by state in general.

[Tintrlvr]

It appears that only Republicans are answering their phones this afternoon.

I've actually noticed on these polls that the Republican candidates seem to do better in the afternoon/early evening while the Democratic candidates seem to do better later in the evening. I don't really have a good explanation for why that might be, and the data is hardly definitive just from these polls.

[Florida Man for Crime]

KS-02 is live.

Paul Davis dominating so far, 2 votes to 0.

One of the interesting things about this one is that probably the Dem (Davis) will have higher name recognition than the Republican because of his previous Gov run.

So this will have a different dynamic than a lot of the other races where the Dem challengers have lower name recognition than Republican incumbents.

[john cage bubblegum]

One of the first two respondents in KS-02 is a Trump-approving white male Republican for Paul Davis.  Your heroism is appreciated, sir.

[Jeppe]

If there’s a district where Democrats could do better among whites than Hispanics, it could be FL-26. A lot of white people in the district live in Key West, a safely Democratic tourist hot-spot, and a lot of the Hispanics are Cuban-Americans who lean Republican.

[wbrocks67]

ME-02 is another <45 disaster (so far). The sample is about 25%.

[Politician]

ME-02 is another <45 disaster (so far). The sample is about 25%.

Yeah, Golden is probably tied or a couple points ahead.

Also, Poliquin went up a point when like 3 more Republicans answered, lol.