NYT LIVE POLL THREAD:

[Seattle]

Schrier winning the healthcare vote...
The fourth respondent is a 65+ non-college grad white male who approves of Trump/Kavanaugh, but wants Ds to control congress, is unsure of universal healthcare, and likes Obamacare.

Also lives out in the boonies of Chelan county.

It's a lot more fun/addictive to watch this process when you know the district being polled well.

[ON Progressive]

Imma predict Rossi will be ahead 2-3 points when the nyt poll is done. Trump will have a heavy disapproval and dems will lead the gcb, but Rossi should eek through.

lol, maybe since you don't live in Washington, you don't know that Rossi is a professional at losing to Democratic women. Trust me, his upcoming performance this fall won't disappoint. Anyway, it's 4-0 Schrier now, which technically puts her outside of the MoE (LMAO). Too much winning!

He lost to those woman statewide while winning the 8th pretty easily all the times.

Those were state races, not federal races. WA-08 seems to be a lot more GOP in state races than federal races for some weird reason.

Considering Rossi couldn't even break 45% in the jungle primary (LMAO), it's funny that you act like he's a super strong candidate.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Schrier's 100-0 is apparently outside the margin of error with 4 respondents.

Not sure how to make sense of that.  A coin will flip heads four times in a row more than 5% of the time.

[Xing]

Imma predict Rossi will be ahead 2-3 points when the nyt poll is done. Trump will have a heavy disapproval and dems will lead the gcb, but Rossi should eek through.

lol, maybe since you don't live in Washington, you don't know that Rossi is a professional at losing to Democratic women. Trust me, his upcoming performance this fall won't disappoint. Anyway, it's 4-0 Schrier now, which technically puts her outside of the MoE (LMAO). Too much winning!

He lost to those woman statewide while winning the 8th pretty easily all the times.

I already addressed that in other post. Apples to oranges.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Imma predict Rossi will be ahead 2-3 points when the nyt poll is done. Trump will have a heavy disapproval and dems will lead the gcb, but Rossi should eek through.

lol, maybe since you don't live in Washington, you don't know that Rossi is a professional at losing to Democratic women. Trust me, his upcoming performance this fall won't disappoint. Anyway, it's 4-0 Schrier now, which technically puts her outside of the MoE (LMAO). Too much winning!

He lost to those woman statewide while winning the 8th pretty easily all the times.

Those were state races, not federal races. WA-08 seems to be a lot more GOP in state races than federal races for some weird reason.

Considering Rossi couldn't even break 45% in the jungle primary (LMAO), it's funny that you act like he's a super strong candidate.

Umm, one of them was a senate race. Also it's never sent a democrat to congress so... The dem base is not united and Schrier is a bad candidate, Dino will peel a few of the moderates off with his moderate image, and he also has the GOP base practically united as well, and will pull in the Republican stragglers after seeing how weak of a candidate Schrier is.

[Jeppe]

Katie Porter holding up well in CA-45, she's up 6 points with over 300 respondents. It looks more and more likely that Republicans will only be left with Young Kim as their only congresscritter from Orange County come 2019.

[Yellowhammer]

WA-08 was significantly more Democratic before being redrawn for 2012 under its current boundaries, so I’m wondering why people are using Reichert’s margins from 2006 and 2008 as evidence for why it will be tough / impossible for Rossi to win. It was a very different and bluer district back then (Rossi still won it handily three times despite this, once in a federal race.)

[libertpaulian]

Katie Porter holding up well in CA-45, she's up 6 points with over 300 respondents. It looks more and more likely that Republicans will only be left with Young Kim as their only congresscritter from Orange County come 2019.

At least she has a cool name. 

[IceSpear]

Imma predict Rossi will be ahead 2-3 points when the nyt poll is done. Trump will have a heavy disapproval and dems will lead the gcb, but Rossi should eek through.

Lol. Rossi couldn't even win the jungle primary when his name recognition advantage was at its peak. As xingkerui said, he's going to get Gillespie'd.

[BundouYMB]

Katie Porter being up 6 is absolutely amazing. Do people understand how great that number is for Democrats? Walters got 59% in 2016! And Democrats did not do badly in California in 2016.

[ON Progressive]

Imma predict Rossi will be ahead 2-3 points when the nyt poll is done. Trump will have a heavy disapproval and dems will lead the gcb, but Rossi should eek through.

lol, maybe since you don't live in Washington, you don't know that Rossi is a professional at losing to Democratic women. Trust me, his upcoming performance this fall won't disappoint. Anyway, it's 4-0 Schrier now, which technically puts her outside of the MoE (LMAO). Too much winning!

He lost to those woman statewide while winning the 8th pretty easily all the times.

Those were state races, not federal races. WA-08 seems to be a lot more GOP in state races than federal races for some weird reason.

Considering Rossi couldn't even break 45% in the jungle primary (LMAO), it's funny that you act like he's a super strong candidate.

Umm, one of them was a senate race. Also it's never sent a democrat to congress so... The dem base is not united and Schrier is a bad candidate, Dino will peel a few of the moderates off with his moderate image, and he also has the GOP base practically united as well, and will pull in the Republican stragglers after seeing how weak of a candidate Schrier is.

Schrier is not a bad candidate at all, and if Dino is pulling off moderates, how come he only barely broke 43% in the jungle primary?

[OneJ]

Rossi finally gets his first voter...female, 30-49, white non-college grad, high school grad or less, Democrat.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Imma predict Rossi will be ahead 2-3 points when the nyt poll is done. Trump will have a heavy disapproval and dems will lead the gcb, but Rossi should eek through.

lol, maybe since you don't live in Washington, you don't know that Rossi is a professional at losing to Democratic women. Trust me, his upcoming performance this fall won't disappoint. Anyway, it's 4-0 Schrier now, which technically puts her outside of the MoE (LMAO). Too much winning!

He lost to those woman statewide while winning the 8th pretty easily all the times.

Those were state races, not federal races. WA-08 seems to be a lot more GOP in state races than federal races for some weird reason.

Considering Rossi couldn't even break 45% in the jungle primary (LMAO), it's funny that you act like he's a super strong candidate.

Umm, one of them was a senate race. Also it's never sent a democrat to congress so... The dem base is not united and Schrier is a bad candidate, Dino will peel a few of the moderates off with his moderate image, and he also has the GOP base practically united as well, and will pull in the Republican stragglers after seeing how weak of a candidate Schrier is.

Schrier is not a bad candidate at all, and if Dino is pulling off moderates, how come he only barely broke 43% in the jungle primary?

He was saving his money and energy for where it really matters, this fall. He was already guaranteed a spot in the runoff, so he hardly did anything for it nor did he need to. Now he's gonna throw it all into the game.

[Xing]

Imma predict Rossi will be ahead 2-3 points when the nyt poll is done. Trump will have a heavy disapproval and dems will lead the gcb, but Rossi should eek through.

lol, maybe since you don't live in Washington, you don't know that Rossi is a professional at losing to Democratic women. Trust me, his upcoming performance this fall won't disappoint. Anyway, it's 4-0 Schrier now, which technically puts her outside of the MoE (LMAO). Too much winning!

He lost to those woman statewide while winning the 8th pretty easily all the times.

Those were state races, not federal races. WA-08 seems to be a lot more GOP in state races than federal races for some weird reason.

Considering Rossi couldn't even break 45% in the jungle primary (LMAO), it's funny that you act like he's a super strong candidate.

Umm, one of them was a senate race. Also it's never sent a democrat to congress so... The dem base is not united and Schrier is a bad candidate, Dino will peel a few of the moderates off with his moderate image, and he also has the GOP base practically united as well, and will pull in the Republican stragglers after seeing how weak of a candidate Schrier is.

Uh, are you just making assumptions based on the primary results? There are no indications that the Democratic base isn't united, and while Schrier isn't an A-list candidate, she hasn't made any clear missteps yet. Rossi does not have a "moderate" image, lol. He basically just has some residual name recognition from his previous runs. If a "united" GOP base could only get him 43% in the primary, what does that tell you? Also, WA-08 has only existed since 1982, so "never sending a Democrat to Congress" is not as impressive as it sounds.

WA-08 was significantly more Democratic before being redrawn for 2012 under its current boundaries, so I’m wondering why people are using Reichert’s margins from 2006 and 2008 as evidence for why it will be tough for Rossi to win. It was a very different and bluer district back then (Rossi still won it handily three times despite this, once in a federal race.)

The most populous part of the county has been trending significantly Democratic, which is why the old WA-08 and the news WA-08 went for Kerry and Clinton by the same margin. The new district is already about as blue as the old one was in 2004-2006. Under old lines, Rossi would easily be headed for a double-digit crushing.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

Katie Porter holding up well in CA-45, she's up 6 points with over 300 respondents. It looks more and more likely that Republicans will only be left with Young Kim as their only congresscritter from Orange County come 2019.

You really want Kim to win, don't you?

[Jeppe]

Susan Wild's 9 point lead right now (with almost 400 respondents) is much closer to the 11 point lead she had a in a poll conducted several months ago by Muhlenberg, than to Monmouth's 3 point lead from earlier this month.

[libertpaulian]

LOL, and people thought nominating Eastman was a good idea...

[ON Progressive]

LOL, and people thought nominating Eastman was a good idea...

a) We're not even at 200 people
b) Do you have any evidence that the only Democratic incumbent to lose in 2016 would've won either?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Updating the list of polls so far with a metric I'm tracking.  The first number is NYT/Upshot's estimate based on their weighting; the second is the estimate based only on those who say they're almost certain to vote; and the third is the change from the first to the second (positive is toward the Democrats).  New additions to the list are bolded.

TX-07   R+3   D+9   12
IA-01   D+14   D+25   11
CO-06   D+10   D+17   7
KS-03   D+8   D+14   6
TX-23   R+8   R+2   6
NJ-07   R+1   D+4   5
CA-25   R+2   D+3   5
WV-03   R+8   R+3   5
MN-03   D+9   D+14   5
IL-06   R+1   D+4   5
CA-48   D+1   D+5   4
KY-06   Even*   D+3   3
MN-08   D+2   D+4   2
KS-02   D+1   D+2   1
WI-01   R+6   R+6   0
CA-49   D+10   D+9   -1
IL-12   R+1   R+2   -1
NM-02   D+1   R+4   -5
FL-26   R+4   R+9   -5
TX-32   R+2   R+8   -6
VA-07   R+4   R+10   -6
ME-02   R+6   R+17   -11

Mean: 1.9
Median: 3.5

[Jeppe]

LOL, and people thought nominating Eastman was a good idea...

187 voters isn't a lot. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell was leading by an even stronger margin at this point. I'd tune it out until at least 300 respondents, although 400 is even better, and waiting until it's actually finished to start giving hot takes is A+.

[wbrocks67]

Hm, Ill wait for Nebraska to finish before making a call. Can't imagine that the R will be up +10 in a very swingy district.

[Jeppe]

Also, I think the NJ-03 poll will be one of those "one in 20" margin-of-error misses. A 20 point lead for Kim is Zogby-level bad. Even Cohn seems worried about the validity of the poll.

[IceSpear]

LOL, and people thought nominating Eastman was a good idea...

a) We're not even at 200 people
b) Do you have any evidence that the only Democratic incumbent to lose in 2016 would've won either?

If it is true that NE-02 really likes Don Bacon and also wants Republicans to keep the House, as the poll currently shows, then he wasn't going to lose regardless of the candidate.

[Progressive Pessimist]

I always said that carpetbagger MacArthur was overrated, but there is no way he is going to lose that badly if he loses at all.

[morgieb]

Also, I think the NJ-03 poll will be one of those "one in 20" margin-of-error misses. A 20 point lead for Kim is Zogby-level bad. Even Cohn seems worried about the validity of the poll.

He's obviously not up by 20. That said, I think this poll is evidence enough that Kim has the lead.