NYT LIVE POLL THREAD:

[Predictor]

NM-02 is live again after a break.

[Florida Man for Crime]

They are polling Kavanaugh in NJ-07. That may actually be more interesting than the topline itself. It will be interesting how much he overperforms or underperforms Lance.

LOL the 1st respondent is a 65+ year old white male Republican who supports Kavanaugh but is voting Dem. Ha!

[Tintrlvr]

They are polling Kavanaugh in NJ-07. That may actually be more interesting than the topline itself. It will be interesting how much he overperforms or underperforms Lance.

LOL the 1st respondent is a 65+ year old white male Republican who supports Kavanaugh but is voting Dem. Ha!

And approves of Trump. Bizarre that this guy would be voting D. I've always wondered about the rate of error from underpaid call center workers...

[Rhenna]

The first response to NJ-07 is.... something. 65+ White Male, supports Tax Bill, Trump, Kavanaugh, Tariffs, opposes NAFTA, is a Republican, thinks Trump has helped him, and  wants GOP to hold the House, but supports Malinowski.

[Doimper]

I wonder how much this project is costing the NYT? It's got to be in the hundreds of thousands of dollars, at least.

[Florida Man for Crime]

2nd respondent is 18-29 non-white female Dem, voting Dem and against Kavanaugh.

Both of the 1st 2 respondents have postgraduate degrees.

[Brittain33]

The first response to NJ-07 is.... something. 65+ White Male, supports Tax Bill, Trump, Kavanaugh, Tariffs, opposes NAFTA, is a Republican, thinks Trump has helped him, and  wants GOP to hold the House, but supports Malinowski.

Maybe he's proud of Polish heritage?

[wbrocks67]

Hmm... seems odd to me that Nate appeared to be *looking* for a specific result with FL, and going back and recalling a certain area to try *get* that result. He was concerned that Curbello wasn't leading and that the lead for the Dem was too big... and then they went back to Miami Dade to call back and poll more purposely, and now Curbello is leading.

Just seems odd that she was leading for a LONG time, and then all of a sudden that lead was slipping out of nowhere.

[wbrocks67]

So far the Culberson poll is the biggest surprise from this batch, IMHO. Expected something more like 44-42 Fletcher. But that's not even close to within the margin.

He's much more popular than I imagined (and Fletcher is slightly less so). Starting to wonder if we've really underestimated how well voters, especially suburbanites, can distinguish between Trump and their GOP Reps.

They're having a major problem in TX reaching young voters, even younger than 45. It's barely 25% of the electorate. That seems to be skewing the result a bit towards the Rs.

[Skill and Chance]

So far the Culberson poll is the biggest surprise from this batch, IMHO. Expected something more like 44-42 Fletcher. But that's not even close to within the margin.

He's much more popular than I imagined (and Fletcher is less popular). Starting to wonder if we've really underestimated how well suburbanites especially can distinguish between Trump and their GOP Reps.

The difference is that Clinton won CO-06 and MN-03 by 9 points, she won TX-07 by 1 point.

Sure, but it was Romney +21 – making Clinton+1 the largest D swing outside of Utah. Culberson also has a far less moderate image than Coffman or Paulsen, so I expected him to bear the brunt of the hypothetical suburbanite backlash. He actually got a smaller share of the vote than Paulsen did in 2016.

I'm not saying I expected him to be down as far as those other two districts, but I'm surprised to see him with a healthy lead and a tentative majority.

TX-07 (Clinton+1, under 50%, wealthiest suburbs of Southern megacity) is basically the same thing as GA-06 (Trump +1, under 50%, wealthiest suburbs of Southern megacity).  I wouldn't be surprised if Culberson wins as an incumbent after GA-06 was held as an open seat.  So far, it's small cities/large towns that are obviously worse than 2016 for the GOP.  They seem to be holding the 2016 line in the megacity suburbs (but obviously not gaining anything).

Both could easily be Dem nominee +5 in 2020 and Dem nominee +10 in 2024, but they shouldn't be sure flips downballot until 2022 or so. 

[Jeppe]

Only 31% of respondents know Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, but she's behind an incumbent with a +25 favourability rating (52/27) by only 3%, wow. I feel more optimistic about this race now, that's the type of name recognition-based lead that a metric ton of ads can easily override.

Also, I smell a rating change in NM-02, especially if Torres Small maintains her lead over Herrell after we cross the 500 respondent mark.

[psychprofessor]

Only 31% of respondents know Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, but she's behind an incumbent with a +25 favourability rating (52/27) by only 3%, wow. I feel more optimistic about this race now, that's the type of name recognition-based lead that a metric ton of ads can easily override.

Also, I smell a rating change in NM-02, especially if Torres Small maintains her lead over Herrell after we cross the 500 respondent mark.

Awful position for Curbelo - horrible Trump approvals and the district wants DEMS to control the house by a wide margin. Mucarsel-Powell in a strong position to win.

[Zaybay]

Only 31% of respondents know Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, but she's behind an incumbent with a +25 favourability rating (52/27) by only 3%, wow. I feel more optimistic about this race now, that's the type of name recognition-based lead that a metric ton of ads can easily override.

Also, I smell a rating change in NM-02, especially if Torres Small maintains her lead over Herrell after we cross the 500 respondent mark.

Wow, that really is bad, perhaps Curbelo is in a large amount of trouble.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

Only 31% of respondents know Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, but she's behind an incumbent with a +25 favourability rating (52/27) by only 3%, wow. I feel more optimistic about this race now, that's the type of name recognition-based lead that a metric ton of ads can easily override.

Also, I smell a rating change in NM-02, especially if Torres Small maintains her lead over Herrell after we cross the 500 respondent mark.

Pundits still haven't changed MN-03 or CO-06 to Lean D despite commanding D leads and strong dem fundamentals.

[Xing]

Flawless Beautiful Katie Hill is consistenly gaining, and now has a 4-point lead. Maybe rating this race Lean D isn't so crazy. I know, it's early, and we'll see where this ends up, but I loved the meltdown Atlas had after the California primary, with lots of users rushing to unironically rate this race Lean R, lol.

[Gass3268]

Only 31% of respondents know Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, but she's behind an incumbent with a +25 favourability rating (52/27) by only 3%, wow. I feel more optimistic about this race now, that's the type of name recognition-based lead that a metric ton of ads can easily override.

Also, I smell a rating change in NM-02,. especially if Torres Small maintains her lead over Herrell after we cross the 500 respondent mark.

Pundits still haven't changed MN-03 or CO-06 to Lean D despite commanding D leads and strong dem fundamentals.

RCP has moved both to Lean D

[Ebsy]

The NM-02 poll is probably the most astounding.

[Politician]

Flawless Beautiful Katie Hill is consistenly gaining, and now has a 4-point lead. Maybe rating this race Lean D isn't so crazy. I know, it's early, and we'll see where this ends up, but I loved the meltdown Atlas had after the California primary, with lots of users rushing to unironically rate this race Lean R, lol.

Bagel literally called this Likely R because Knight got 53% of the jungle primary votes, lol.

[OneJ]

The NM-02 poll is probably the most astounding.

I pretty much saw this as a tossup. It puzzles me why some pundits still have it at “Lean R”, but it’s better than them saying Likely R.

[MT Treasurer]

CA-25 was already Lean D anyway in my book (closer to Likely D than Tossup).

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

IA-01 next.  They are finally polling a Lean D race!

[Xing]

I'll predict Finkenauer +4 because why not.

[MT Treasurer]

IA-01 next. 

Nice! This one is a pretty good bellwether.

[libertpaulian]

IA-01 next.  They are finally polling a Lean D race!

Finkenauer +3.  I'm setting low expectations for these things.

[TheRocketRaccoon]

POLL VA-10