NYT LIVE POLL THREAD:

[Xing]

In all seriousness, it looks like MN-08 is probably going to end at Radinovich +1 or 2, since they hit 500 responses.

[IceSpear]

#Bratunder10

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Abagail higher than the margin of error!

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

I think NYT suspended their MN-03 poll until they can find enough Paulsen supporter to get the race back to within one point.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

This thread is a bad idea.

Nah, this is the greatest thread ever. It will be 200 pages by election day.

[GeorgiaModerate]

MN-08 has now closed with the final result being Radinovich 44, Stauber 43.  Under different turnout models:

People who say they are almost certain to vote, and no one else: Radinovich +4
The types of people who voted in 2014: Radinovich +1
Our estimate: Radinovich +2
People who say they will vote, adjusted for past levels of truthfulness: Radinovich +2
People whose voting history suggests they will vote, regardless of what they say: Radinovich +2
The types of people who voted in 2016: Stauber +2
Every active registered voter: Stauber +1

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Dave Brat is closing, helped by the fact that he is getting 100% of the less than high school education vote.

[GeorgiaModerate]

This thread is a bad idea.

Nah, this is the greatest thread ever. It will be 200 pages by election day.

Yeah, I don't think anyone could have designed a better attractor for Atlas members.

[Antonio the Sixth]

This thread is a bad idea.

[Chancellor Tanterterg]

This thread is a bad idea.

Nah, this is the greatest thread ever. It will be 200 pages by election day.

Yeah, I don't think anyone could have designed a better attractor for Atlas members.

[Wiz in Wis]

Does the times have a place where they show the completed results?

[OkThen]

Wow, so all five races they finished ended up within 1 point? So simply confirming that these toss-ups are all... toss-ups.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Does the times have a place where they show the completed results?

On the live results page: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/upshot/elections-polls.html

[Predictor]

Wow, so all five races they finished ended up within 1 point? So simply confirming that these toss-ups are all... toss-ups.

MN-03 looking to break that streak.

[Jeppe]

Oof, Miller +5 now.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Oof, Miller +5 now.

Long way to go.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I think Miller will lead once this poll is finished and I also now think she will win the election. Probably by mid to high single digits. Though I wouldn’t mind a surprise.

So far looking right.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I think Brat will lead by 4-6 once the poll is finished.

[Xing]

Phillips is up by 10 now, which just about puts him outside of the MoE.

[Jeppe]

Phillips is up by 10 now, which just about puts him outside of the MoE.

Yeah, somebody is getting triaged soon. Republicans might spend more effort trying to take the two Democratic seats (MN-01 & MN-08) rather than trying to save their two incumbents in MN-02 and MN-03.

[morgieb]

Hopefully Paulsen (which is kinda impossible) and Ojeda can have massive legs to keep up the trend of having basic ties in the polls.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

I think Miller will lead once this poll is finished and I also now think she will win the election. Probably by mid to high single digits. Though I wouldn’t mind a surprise.

So far looking right.

It is looking more like that.

Ojeda was doing very well early on when the sample was all cell phones, but he has been going down all day as landlines have been coming in to the sample.

He only has 55% name recognition (50% for Miller). I have to think that a lot of the people who say they are for Miller have probably never heard of Ojeda, and are voting just on the basis of Trump R vs generic D. So this is one place where some TV ads (cheap in WV) raising his name ID and explaining who he is might go a long way.

[MycroftCZ]

FINALLY we're gonna have some races outside of 1 point of each other.

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Spanberger up by 14 with a sample that is overly male, overly old, overly non-white, and doesn't have the cell phone issue. It's early, but looking good so far in VA-07.

[Jeppe]

I think Miller seems to be heading for a double-digit lead. Not at all a comfortable margin for a district that Trump won by 49 points, but forcing Republicans to invest here in the first place is great. Less money to go to around for other districts like VA-02 and VA-07, where they might be caught flat-footed.