NYT LIVE POLL THREAD:

[Jeppe]

Looks like we’re headed to suburban Los Angeles! Siena is polling CA-25 and Monmouth is polling CA-39.

[Senator Incitatus]

So far the Culberson poll is the biggest surprise from this batch, IMHO. Expected something more like 44-42 Fletcher. But that's not even close to within the margin.

He's much more popular than I imagined (and Fletcher is slightly less so). Starting to wonder if we've really underestimated how well voters, especially suburbanites, can distinguish between Trump and their GOP Reps.

[Jeppe]

So far the Culberson poll is the biggest surprise from this batch, IMHO. Expected something more like 44-42 Fletcher. But that's not even close to within the margin.

He's much more popular than I imagined (and Fletcher is less popular). Starting to wonder if we've really underestimated how well suburbanites especially can distinguish between Trump and their GOP Reps.

The difference is that Clinton won CO-06 and MN-03 by 9 points, she won TX-07 by 1 point.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Looks like we’re headed to suburban Los Angeles! Siena is polling CA-25 and Monmouth is polling CA-39.

What the hell is going on in the CA-25 poll?  They keep getting new responses without any new call, and they shouldn't be polling CA right now anyway.

[Senator Incitatus]

So far the Culberson poll is the biggest surprise from this batch, IMHO. Expected something more like 44-42 Fletcher. But that's not even close to within the margin.

He's much more popular than I imagined (and Fletcher is less popular). Starting to wonder if we've really underestimated how well suburbanites especially can distinguish between Trump and their GOP Reps.

The difference is that Clinton won CO-06 and MN-03 by 9 points, she won TX-07 by 1 point.

Sure, but it was Romney +21 – making Clinton+1 the largest D swing outside of Utah. Culberson also has a far less moderate image than Coffman or Paulsen, so I expected him to bear the brunt of the hypothetical suburbanite backlash. He actually got a smaller share of the vote than Paulsen did in 2016.

I'm not saying I expected him to be down as far as those other two districts, but I'm surprised to see him with a healthy lead and a tentative majority.

[Senator Incitatus]

Looks like we’re headed to suburban Los Angeles! Siena is polling CA-25 and Monmouth is polling CA-39.

Any word on when the Monmouth poll is out? CA-39 is one of the districts I'm most interested in.

[politicallefty]

I thought even Nate Cohn was a bit apprehensive about some of these polls, particularly the Sun Belt districts. TX-07 is probably a hard district to poll on account of population shifts.

[Gass3268]

Looks like we’re headed to suburban Los Angeles! Siena is polling CA-25 and Monmouth is polling CA-39.

What the hell is going on in the CA-25 poll?  They keep getting new responses without any new call, and they shouldn't be polling CA right now anyway.

They started calling last night and they are now processing the responses.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Looks like we’re headed to suburban Los Angeles! Siena is polling CA-25 and Monmouth is polling CA-39.

What the hell is going on in the CA-25 poll?  They keep getting new responses without any new call, and they shouldn't be polling CA right now anyway.

They started calling last night and they are now processing the responses.

Why do they have 11,000 calls here just from last night, and still only 8,000 calls in NM-02 over fours days?

Edit: It looks like they got 159 responses in CA last night; it's very early, but these results are mildly discouraging.  I've been hoping for a repeat of MN-03/CO-06 in a couple of the CA districts, but so far, not seeing it.

[Florida Man for Crime]

So far the Culberson poll is the biggest surprise from this batch, IMHO. Expected something more like 44-42 Fletcher. But that's not even close to within the margin.

I think you may know this, but if not, assuming by "margin" you mean margin of error, it is entirely within the MOE.

It is 51-44 with an MOE of 6.

If you are imagining what it would be if it were off, sometimes people think that you just subtract 6 from one candidate or add 6 to one candidate (meaning -6 to Culberson or +6 to Fletcher).

But that is not how it works - that is the MOE for one individual candidate's numbers in isolation, but that is not the same thing as the MOE for Culberson's lead.

In general, although there is some wiggle room with the undecideds, if Fletcher goes up, then Culberson goes down - their poll numbers are negatively related to each other.

So a different calculation is used for Culberson's lead, and if you look at the "How our poll result has changed" section where it shows the timeline, you can see than anything between a Fletcher lead of about 5 points and a Culberson lead of about 17 points is within the MOE at the moment.

[palandio]

Look, I'm just citing the numbers and data available. I didn't make these numbers or polls up. You guys are the ones talking about nebulous things like "momentum" and throwing away data points. Even if the NY Liberty poll is biased, Cuomo should still be able to crack 50 in it. If a Dem-leaning poll came out showing him at 70% I'd take that into account too. I just look at the data before me, that's all.

A poll of 500 people doesn't really show a data point. At least you have to take into account the margin of error. This yields the following D win probabilities (TX 7, FL 26 and NM 2 not finished):

CO 6: 99%
MN 3: 97%
MN 8: 59%
KS 2: 58%
CA 48: 50%
KT 6: 42%
IL 6: 42%
IL 12: 41%
VA 7: 21%
ME 2: 15%
TX 7: 12%

NM 2: 39%
FL 26: 37%
WI 1: 10%
TX 23: 5%
WV 3: 5%

Altogether we get an expected value of 5.36 D seats out of 11 toss-ups and 0.97 D seats out of 5 Lean R races.

[Jeppe]

Looks like we’re headed to suburban Los Angeles! Siena is polling CA-25 and Monmouth is polling CA-39.

Any word on when the Monmouth poll is out? CA-39 is one of the districts I'm most interested in.

Tomorrow, likely around 1 pm, which is usually when they release their polls.

[Florida Man for Crime]

Why do they have 11,000 calls here just from last night, and still only 8,000 calls in NM-02 over fours days?

The amounts of calls that different call centers have capacity to do at different times varies. So there probably just happened to be one of the call centers with higher capacity doing CA-25. Also, not all call centers can call all districts (you need some Spanish speakers for NM-02, for example).

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The CA seats may be a bit tougher in that Dems are reliant there more on Hispanics certainly than MN-03 and to a slightly lesser extent CO-06. And the NYT/Siena weighting and turnout model emphasizes college whites, not so much Hispanics. CA-25 is only 45% white, in comparison to CO-06 being 72% white.

[Jeppe]

Why do they have 11,000 calls here just from last night, and still only 8,000 calls in NM-02 over fours days?

The amounts of calls that different call centers have capacity to do at different times varies. So there probably just happened to be one of the call centers with higher capacity doing CA-25. Also, not all call centers can call all districts (you need some Spanish speakers for NM-02, for example).

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The CA seats may be a bit tougher in that Dems are reliant there more on Hispanics certainly than MN-03 and to a slightly lesser extent CO-06. And the NYT/Siena weighting and turnout model emphasizes college whites, not so much Hispanics. CA-25 is only 45% white, in comparison to CO-06 being 72% white.

Yeah, a trend I've noticed is that the more Hispanics there are in the district, the stronger the white college-educateds are for Republicans. The only exception is FL-26, where Hispanics are actually the Republican base.

[Brittain33]

Not surprisingly, a lot of red dots in Simi Valley, CA.

[Devout Centrist]

One thing most people here seem to forgot is that Siena is very incumbent friendly, especially around September. Looking at New York polling during the 2010 midterm suggests that, in races with a Democratic incumbent facing a Republican challenger, they were off from the final result by an average of 13 points. Usually their polling would get better as time went on, but they still had a nasty habit of overestimating incumbents.

Open seats, on the other hand, saw much more accurate polling. The error in this category was only a couple percent.

[Predictor]

We're getting NJ-07 next.

[Politician]

We're getting NJ-07 next.

Predicting Lance +1.

[Predictor]

We're getting NJ-07 next.

Predicting Lance +1.

I say it'll be within 2 points in either direction.

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1041746937249234944

[Figueira]

Looks like we’re headed to suburban Los Angeles! Siena is polling CA-25 and Monmouth is polling CA-39.

CA-25 is not really "suburban Los Angeles." It's separated from LA by a mountain range.

[Jeppe]

Looks like we’re headed to suburban Los Angeles! Siena is polling CA-25 and Monmouth is polling CA-39.

CA-25 is not really "suburban Los Angeles." It's separated from LA by a mountain range.

It’s literally still a part of Los Angeles county though.

[Predictor]

NJ-07 is LIVE

[GeorgiaModerate]

NJ-07 is LIVE

1 call,  0 responses.

[Brittain33]

Looks like we’re headed to suburban Los Angeles! Siena is polling CA-25 and Monmouth is polling CA-39.

CA-25 is not really "suburban Los Angeles." It's separated from LA by a mountain range.

It’s literally still a part of Los Angeles county though.

It’s properly exurban Los Angeles.