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Unless Ds win the H in 24/26 which they likely will there won't be impeachment

Only Minnesota is a plausible and conceivable flip. New Jersey and Virginia is just too suburban and too affluent for Trump to win.

Virginia and Colorado are the 2 ex-battleground states that won’t vote GOP again in the foreseeable future in today’s political alignments.

I think Trump gains in the suburbs, but yeah there are no major inner cities in either NJ or VA for Trump to make major gains in.

I am willing to bet real money with you Biden will win VA by at least 5% margin.

If he wins VA by barely 5% that won’t be a good sign for him, considering Biden had a double-digit margin there in 2020 and it’s still a leftward-trending state.

Only Minnesota is a plausible and conceivable flip. New Jersey and Virginia is just too suburban and too affluent for Trump to win.

Virginia and Colorado are the 2 ex-battleground states that won’t vote GOP again in the foreseeable future in today’s political alignments.

And also, I don’t see New Jersey as actually in play at all this cycle, I don’t see any polling to suggest that.

RIP HP

Where's Iranian version of Snake Plissken when you need him?

"There was an accident about an hour ago.  A small jet went down inside New York City. The President was on board."              

"President of what?"

"That's not funny, Plissken. You go in, find the President and bring him out in 24 hours and you're a free man."

"24 hours, huh?"

"I'm making you an offer."

"Bullsh**t."

"Straight just like I said."

"I'll think about it."

"No time. Give me an answer."

"Get a new president."

"We're still at war, Plissken. We need him alive."

"I don't give a f**k about your war... or your president."

Lee Van Cleef!  God he was a great actor....

Tyler County, West Virginia 1996.
Manistee County, Michigan 1920.

There have been threads on these two before, but nobody has been able to figure them out exactly.

I suspect some kind of error for Tyler WV.  The total vote is something like 1000 (or 25%) less than what one would expect given elections before and afterwards.

Interesting Nugget out of the Florida CBS Poll:

Trump leads Biden among Florida Hispanics 52-47. In 2020 Trump lost Florida Hispanics to Biden 47-52.

This really suggests to me that Trump has a better than even shot carrying Miami-Dade County because if he carries FL Latinos Statewide he surely is going to carry them in Miami-Dade.

If there’s going to be a ground zero for Hispanic shifts to GOP, the place it would happen would be in Miami-Dade county. I was recently in the Miami area and the vibe there is not DEM conducive.

I think Clark County would also be ground zero.

What a pity this country has become when the opposition party resorting to impeachment has become a norm.

People will come to their own conclusions to fit their narratives, and Biden certainly faces myriad headwinds (one big looming crisis that comes to mind: we're looking at a nasty summer for hurricanes and floods with these sea surface temperatures), but a more detached historical perspective would eventually determine that the cost of living crisis and its tone deaf response were the biggest factors in sinking Biden.

Hurricanes could help the incumbent if they respond to the crisis well (ie Obama), though likely gas prices are also going to go up due to hurricanes knocking out refineries.

Being at knife's edge in the Middle East doesn't bode well for the next six months either. An Iranian oil shock would start a financial contagion in European markets that we wouldn't be safe from. Things are very precarious right now. Hoping for the best because things are already bad enough.