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Stuff like this is a large part of the reason I increasingly believe the divide in our politics is between normal people and weird people.

Which is why I'm supporting Royce White for US Senate.

https://twitter.com/EarlWashburn/status/1792204633596948942?t=5xswk4m8XZpVJjB9Ow...

Since the residency of Toronto MPs was brought up not that long ago.

Well, even if a Hurricane does strike Florida (And I hope it doesn't) the State has a pretty good crisis Manager in Governor DeSantis. The way he and the Florida Emergency Department handled Hurricanes IAN (2022) and IDALIA (2023) was pretty darn good.

If he does a good job, than all the better for everyone involved here.

And I also hope it will be mostly fishy storms (that don't impact land) or minimal impact, but it's better to be prepared for the worst.

So far, even is SSTs warm at the slowest rate ever from may to august, there would be three years that would be warmer than 2024 in the tropical region: 2005, 2020 and last year 2023. Last year had an El Nino so not eveyr metric was in favour.

2005 and 2020 are tied record breaking seasons, 2005 having Katrina also as most famous hurricane.

Walmart had pretty good earnings , maybe a shift of middle income consumers to trashier Walmart ?

Walmart said as much on its earnings call that more high earners were shopping at its stores mainly through its Walmart+ delivery.

It’s funny how you can differentiate the higher end Walmarts by how many reserved pickup parking spots there are. The more there are, the nicer the store. No one wants to go inside..

If Trump wins and does a good job in his second term then I will gladly support him if he wants a third term. There might be a way around the 22nd Amendment by nominating a puppet Republican nominee and putting Trump in as VP and market the ticket as Trump's 3rd term. Then if they win, the President resigns, and Trump takes power. This would likely have to go to court because the 22nd Amendment talks about being "elected" specifically but not necessarily the office itself. 

If Trump wins and he likely will Republicans will ignore the 22nd amendment and nominate him for a third term if he wants it.

We live in interesting times. We’ll have to take a look.

more like scary times. A Trump win seems likely.

Ok I guess, but not really my thing and definitely overrated imo. All the noise usually seems like cover for not having much to say really. My taste is definitely more to the "boring" pre-shoegaze (and pre-baggy) indiepop stuff like the Housemartins, or 90s indie clearly indebted to mid-80s shambling like Sarah Records.

Overrated?! My brother in Christ, it's arguably one of the most underground genres that exist. There aren't that many "popular" artists beyond My Bloody Valentine, Slowdive, Cocteau Twins, etc. and the genre was largely abandoned and forgotten after being briefly popular in the early '90s. I disagree with you on the quality of the lyrics and what it wants to say as well, but to each their own. Still, I think the fact that the vast majority of people have literally no idea what shoegaze is today is proof that it's a mostly dead art. There's something of a revival in some circles thanks to the internet, but it's not been successful in reaching the mainstream.

Couldn't have said this better myself, every single word said here nails it.

Iran seems to be blaming sanctions . Guess they do work.

Congrats! Want to feel older? I wasn’t alive when you joined.

You’re welcome!

I had never heard of shoegaze before this poll was created.

Two albums everyone needs to have listened in their life:

My Bloody Valentine - Loveless (1991)
Slowdive - Souvlaki (1991)

These two are genre classics and shoegaze defining.

What emo means for BRTD, is what shoegaze means for me.

Trump gets 58 % of Florida Hispanics and Rick Scott is even higher winning 2 out of 3 FL Hispanics.
If this is true it suggests that DeSantis winning Puerto Ricans in 2022 wasn't a one-off.

Rep. Darren Soto & Rep. Jared Moskowitz clinging to dear life with these sort of Numbers.

If that's true, i don't believe for a second Trump will only by 9 points.

He gets as much as DeSantis.

And the whole bottomline so far is Trump also making inroads with AA voters.

Rubio won only 55% of Hispanics. And Trump here would take 58% and we aren't even talking about people who say they would favour an independent over Biden (or are undecided atm).

Trump winning 58% of Hispanics basically suggests a +15 win at least, possibly +20. Unless other demographics groups dramatically shift in favour of Biden, which might relative to the 2022 elections be true. But given Biden is struggling with urban demographics, such as Afro American voters, young voters. And given the panhandle also rural AA's, than Florida might actually back Trump stronger than thought on election day.

Which ironically would be a continuation of the trend set in 2016 and 2020 (and also 2018 + 2022).

With numbers like that, Palm Beach County would be in play.

Well, the CBS YouGov Poll has Trump only up 52-47 among Hispanics over Biden. That though is still a 10-Point Shift from the 2020 Exit Polls in FL when Biden won Hispanics over Trump 52-47.

That would make more sense and would align more with a +9 victory.

The most interesting plot among Latinos I am looking at is whether Trump wins a Democratic-leaning constituency, PUERTO RICANS. They have generally back Democrats over the last 15 years or so but they did go for DeSantis & Rubio in 2022. They were pretty mad at Trump in 2020 for his handling of Hurricane Maria. Biden got 72 % of the Puerto Rican Hispanics in 2020. Meanwhile DeSantis won 56 % of Puerto Ricans in 2022 & Senator Rubio 54 %. Astonishing for a Group that gave Biden 72 % of the Vote in 2020. We are talking about a 50-Point shift here. If that happens in November Democrats are DEAD in Florida I can guarantee you that.

For that, i guess we will have to wait till election day. But I suppose a shift will happen some way or the other, because anti-incumbency and Hurricane Maria no longer being relevant.

And good chance, Biden will have a chance to redeem himself because Atlantic Hurricane Season is almost certain but guaranteed to be one of the most active Atlantic hurricane seasons ever. it doesn't look good. Of course there's still a chance that like 30 hurricanes create but that none would really strike the USA directly. That is still a possibility. And even in a mild season you can have the bad luck of a pretty bad hurricane striking the USA and otherwise not much activity.

Atlantic Ocean and MDR (main development region) is record warm
WAM (West African Monsoon) will be very active.
We will transition into La Nina most likely which favours hurricane development and low shear levels needed to generate hurricanes.

Literally every single metric is pointing in the wrong direction atm there.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1790864490893844649

On April 24, the University of Pennsylvania (UPenn) issued their prediction of a record-breaking season, predicting an unprecedented 33 (±6) named storms. They cited expected moderate La Niña conditions and record-warm sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic tied to large-scale warming.

Well, even if a Hurricane does strike Florida (And I hope it doesn't) the State has a pretty good crisis Manager in Governor DeSantis. The way he and the Florida Emergency Department handled Hurricanes IAN (2022) and IDALIA (2023) was pretty darn good.