Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[GeorgiaModerate]

ABC News/Washington Post, April 18-21, 1007 adults

Approve 52
Disapprove 42

Strongly approve 34
Strongly disapprove 35

[Person Man]

His approval ratings are remarkably stable. Republicans can still do well with a superior ground game and with candidates that can make voters relate fondly to dysfunction. If they can’t do both of those things, Biden and Congressional Democrats win. By a lot if they can’t do either.

[GP270watch]

Seems like the GOP has been freaking out lately because Biden's proposals and legislative accomplishments that they're trying to label as socialist are very popular. On top of this they haven't been able to land a glove on him. He's white, too much of a regular Joe, they haven't successfully made him "the other" an it's freaking them out.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I saw the Generic ballot it says 47/42 D it's looking good for Ds

[roxas11]

ABC News/Washington Post, April 18-21, 1007 adults

Approve 52
Disapprove 42

Strongly approve 34
Strongly disapprove 35

A surprisingly great poll for Biden and very bad for the GOP.

The results of this polls is basically saying that the only reason Biden is not higher is because a lot of people still think the economy sucks right now. This poll is showing that just 42% of Americans rate the economy positively, and 58% percent say it's not-so-good or in poor shape.


If Biden is getting 52 with those kinds of numbers on the economy than the GOP is going to be in big trouble once everything is reopened and the economy is roaring back with the kind of economic growth we have not seen in decades. At this point the GOP better hope and pray that the projections of insane growth in 2022 is way off lol

[President Johnson]

ABC News/Washington Post, April 18-21, 1007 adults

Approve 52
Disapprove 42

Strongly approve 34
Strongly disapprove 35

A surprisingly great poll for Biden and very bad the GOP.

The results of this polls is basically saying that the only reason Biden is not higher is because a lot of people still think the economy sucks right now. This poll is showing that just 42% of Americans rate the economy positively, and 58% percent say it's not-so-good or in poor shape.


If Biden is getting 52 with those kinds of numbers on the economy than the GOP is going to be in big trouble once everything is reopened and the economy is roaring back with the kind of economic growth we have not seen in decades. At this point the GOP better hope and pray that the projections of insane growth in 2022 is way off lol

I actually thought this poll is medicore for Joe Biden, but I absolutely agree with this conclusion. If the economy comes back strongly in a few months, he should stay way above 50% for a longer period of time.

[GeorgiaModerate]

NBC News (Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies), April 17-20, 1000 adults

Adults:

Approve 53
Disapprove 39

Strongly approve 29
Strongly disapprove 33

RV (Subsample size not shown):

Approve 51
Disapprove 43

Strongly approve 28
Strongly disapprove 36

[GeorgiaModerate]

CBS News/YouGov, April 21-24, 2527 adults (change from mid-March)

Approve 58 (-4)
Disapprove 42 (+4)

Strongly approve 33 (-3)
Strongly approve 32 (+4)

Last month's poll looked like an outlier at the time.

[GeorgiaModerate]

It must be Network News Poll Day; after ABC, NBC, and CBS, here comes Fox to complete the set:

Fox News, April 18-21, 1002 RV

Approve 54
Disapprove 43

Strongly approve 34
Strongly approve 35

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden has the same exact Approvals that he had entering office as I said before it's a 51/49 Senate with D's going to a Runoff in GA and winning WI, PA and NH and the H will hinge on FL and TX Redistricting.

If I had to guess Rs +10 in House and D's net 2 in the Senate reverse of 2018 but anything can happen

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Remingtor Trump 53/Biden 38 in MO

Yeah MO Senate is Safe R, all the open seats except for PA are Lean R

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

NBC News (Hart Research/Public Opinion Strategies), April 17-20, 1000 adults

Adults:

Approve 53
Disapprove 39

Strongly approve 29
Strongly disapprove 33

RV (Subsample size not shown):

Approve 51
Disapprove 43

Strongly approve 28
Strongly disapprove 36

It's only been 3 months, and I am getting sick of winning.

[pbrower2a]

As COVID-19 passes from the scene we will have plenty of reason to do entertaining stuff that wise people did not do when the lockdowns were pushed.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden 53/39% Approvals are the same exact Approvals he got on Election day I don't see the S voting D, it's a 52/48 Senate unless Covid is Eradicated that's why we got a 15 or Trump lead in MO, the S is safe R as of now

But, Biden doesn't need the S to get Reelected, just like Obama didn't, MO just cofirmed what we already know all open Senate seats other than PA are Lean R

We haven't changed since that 306 map after Election day

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1386428630511755265

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

With Tim Ryan announcement D's can certainly win OH and IA this time with Sand, I am invested in Ryan, but NC will go R with Socialisic Cheri Beasley if she wins nomination instead of Jackson

This isn't just about Biden, the R party have seen long term damage from their Jan 6th, Insurrectionists, Females and Minorities outnumber WC males

Mccarthy still thinks he can win H if the Generic ballot is ,47/42 D

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Well, we know all these urgencies to get Statehood and Crt packing done is gone out the window with Biden Crt packing plan, Bennett, CCM, Kelly, Durbin, Hassan just dismantled the Commission on Crt packing by saying no to it

PR is already a Commonwealth, this is the same Crt that gave Biden the Prez and Breyer isn't retiring

PR probably doesn't get Statehood it was part of the Crt Packing plan, and DC Statehood doesn't have 50 votes now

We can all relax now, that's why Schumer is coy about getting rid of Filibuster, he doesn't know about DC Statehood, and Rs would retaliate and block judges and Cabinet thru unanimous consent

[pbrower2a]

I think I can reinstate the Missouri poll that I rescinded with this data.

Until I find the last data with Missouri on the map, here is my guess:    

Key:

30% red shade: Biden up 1-5%
40% red shade: Biden up 5-10%
50% red shade: Biden up 10-15%
60% red shade: Biden up 15-20%
70% red shade: Biden up 20-25%
80% red shade: Biden up 25-30%
90% red shade: Biden up 30%+

50% green shade: tie

30% blue shade: Biden down 1-5%
40% blue shade: Biden down 5-10%
50% blue shade: Biden down 10-15%
60% blue shade: Biden down 15-20%
70% blue shade: Biden down 20-25%
80% blue shade: Biden down 25-30%
90% blue shade: Biden down 30%+


It is approval ratings, and not favorability ratings. Favorability ratings are relevant when they are blatant  (as in states that are not close and usually do not get polled, like New York Rhode Island or Oklahoma) because the states rarely decide an election, but they always must defer to approval. Would I use a favorability rating for Illinois? Sure. Wisconsin? Absolutely not.

A poll for Pennsylvania showed a significant edge for Biden in favorability.

[pbrower2a]

I think I can reinstate the Missouri poll that I rescinded with this data. (It had the same shade of blue as Kentucky, which is good enough for me).

Until I find the last data with Missouri on the map, here is my guess:    

Now, updated with electoral votes as apportioned in accordance with the 2020 Census:

Here's what the 2024 allocations will be.

GAINS TWO:

TX

GAINS ONE:

MT, OR, CO, NC, FL

LOSES ONE:

CA, NY, IL, OH, MI, WV, PA

Key:

30% red shade: Biden up 1-5%
40% red shade: Biden up 5-10%
50% red shade: Biden up 10-15%
60% red shade: Biden up 15-20%
70% red shade: Biden up 20-25%
80% red shade: Biden up 25-30%
90% red shade: Biden up 30%+

50% green shade: tie

30% blue shade: Biden down 1-5%
40% blue shade: Biden down 5-10%
50% blue shade: Biden down 10-15%
60% blue shade: Biden down 15-20%
70% blue shade: Biden down 20-25%
80% blue shade: Biden down 25-30%
90% blue shade: Biden down 30%+


It is approval ratings, and not favorability ratings. Favorability ratings are relevant when they are blatant  (as in states that are not close and usually do not get polled, like New York Rhode Island or Oklahoma) because the states rarely decide an election, but they always must defer to approval. Would I use a favorability rating for Illinois? Sure. Wisconsin? Absolutely not.

A poll for Pennsylvania showed a significant edge (high single digits) for Biden in favorability.


Please do not show electoral counts from before this one, as they are no longer relevant.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The Insurrectionists, on Jan 6th damaged the R party, it's not all about Biden who is a DLC Dem that issued 1400 checks and there is need for more stimulus, it should of been 2K or 2600

That's why Manchin is gonna cut his 2.3T package to 800B but a likely scenario is a D 3=1Election not an 8 pt D PVI Election keeping the H and 53/47 Senators, WI, PA, NH, GA, OH

Biden 53/39% is the same exact Approvals he got on Election night

[GeorgiaModerate]

Marist, April 19-21, 1809 adults including 1688 RV (2-week change)

Adults:

Approve 54 (+1)
Disapprove 44 (+5)

Strongly approve 25 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 32 (+3)

RV:

Approve 54 (+2)
Disapprove 44 (+3)

Strongly approve 25 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 33 (+2)

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Bidens approvals are about the same as on Election day we will get a PVI 3.1 D Election, not a 5.0 and certainly not an 8.0 D, Approval ratings in various states are misleading due to split voting. pVI 3.1 is enough to hold H, though

D's can win H seats on TX and FL , NC but not win statewide, as well as OH, Gov and H races go R while Senate race just like in 2018 goes D
Beasley or Val Deming's won't win, but Sand in IA and Ryan in OH can

That's why R overconfidence is misleading, but if Covid is improved substantially, it will be a 5 or 8 pt Election in 500 fays

WI, PA, NH are Lean D Senate

[wbrocks67]

New CNN poll actually has Harris's approval higher than Biden's!

Biden job approval: 53/43 (+10)
Harris VP job approval: 53/38 (+15)

http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2021/images/04/28/rel3bbiden100days.pdf

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

New CNN poll actually has Harris's approval higher than Biden's!

Biden job approval: 53/43 (+10)
Harris VP job approval: 53/38 (+15)

http://cdn.cnn.com/cnn/2021/images/04/28/rel3bbiden100days.pdf

This Approvals is the same exact number Biden got on Election night 53/39

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Unless we see an Eradication of Covid, the EC map will replicate what it did last time Senate map WI, PA, NH and GA.

OH, IA, TX, NC and FL remain R states at least at Senate and Gov level, D's can win Latino Districts to keep H in D hands in those states, that's we got a 15 pt MO poll