Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Approval of Congress is the highest it's been since 2009 in that poll - at 35%.

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Feb. 19-22, 1500 adults including 1201 RV

This usually comes out on Wednesday; no idea why it's a day early this week.

Adults:

Approve 51 (-3)
Disapprove 41 (+4)

Strongly approve 33 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 28 (-1)

RV:

Approve 51 (-4)
Disapprove 40 (nc)

Strongly approve 37 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 33 (+1)

[BudgieForce]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Feb. 19-22, 1500 adults including 1201 RV

This usually comes out on Wednesday; no idea why it's a day early this week.

Adults:

Approve 51 (-3)
Disapprove 41 (+4)

Strongly approve 33 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 28 (-1)

RV:

Approve 51 (-4)
Disapprove 40 (nc)

Strongly approve 37 (nc)
Strongly disapprove 33 (+1)

YouGov has been very swingy lately.

[Never Made it to Graceland]

Approval of Congress is the highest it's been since 2009 in that poll - at 35%.

As soon as they can get the stimulus passed, it may well be a plurality. Unless Manchin and Cinnamon gut it.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Covid illnesses are receding, the rush for vaccines are current, no one is going to ICUs like they were in past, but there isn't a cure for Common cold anyways

[Tender Branson]

VA (CNU)

57% approve
36% disapprove

https://cnu.edu/wasoncenter/surveys/archive/2021-02-23.html

[Lief 🗽]

VA (CNU)

57% approve
36% disapprove

https://cnu.edu/wasoncenter/surveys/archive/2021-02-23.html

94% approval with Democrats. Thank you!

[President Johnson]

VA (CNU)

57% approve
36% disapprove

https://cnu.edu/wasoncenter/surveys/archive/2021-02-23.html

NoVa moderate suburbanites love Uncle Joe.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Biden is strong in appalachian,  also Beshear has a net positive approval rating in KY as well

I guess Biden was the stronger nominee, Bernie was incredibly weaker in VA

[GeorgiaModerate]

St. Leo University, Feb. 7-14


National (1000 adults):

Approve 61
Disapprove 32

Strongly approve 38
Strongly disapprove 24


Florida (500 adults, separate from national survey):

Approve 56
Disapprove 35

Strongly approve 37
Strongly disapprove 27

[ultraviolet]

Ok Florida

[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

The Miami Cubans don’t want any aid because it’s communism or whatever.

[pbrower2a]

Utah:



https://www.deseret.com/utah/2021/2/21/22290323/poll-what-utahns-think-joe-biden-first-month-job-performance-coronavirus-handling-trump

1. It is Utah, one of the usual strongest states for Republican pols. Trump had some trouble here, but he is off the scene.  This is extremely good performance for a Democrat. Did Obama ever get to this level of support in Utah? OK, Obama is a poor comparison for Utah because he ended up losing 72-24 or Romney in 2012. I'd love to see a preference poll pitting Obama against Trump in Utah.

2. A 6% gap in Utah is far less than one could reasonably expect. If this were where Biden were early in the 2024 electoral season and he had to win Utah, he could have a chance. The line of approval for having a 50% chance of winning re-election for an incumbent in a state-wide race is roughly 43.5% at the start of an electoral season.  

3. This is a Rasmussen poll, and Scott Rasmussen usually polls favorably to Republicans.

4. It is arguable that President Biden is getting credit for

(1) the response to COVID-19, and
(2) showing no mercy to the insurrectionists.

Mormons have no tolerance for political violence or street crime. If you can't behave yourself, then stay out of Utah.  

VA (CNU)

57% approve
36% disapprove

https://cnu.edu/wasoncenter/surveys/archive/2021-02-23.html

Stronger than the electoral result.

St. Leo University, Feb. 7-14


National (1000 adults):

Approve 61
Disapprove 32

Strongly approve 38
Strongly disapprove 24


Florida (500 adults, separate from national survey):

Approve 56
Disapprove 35

Strongly approve 37
Strongly disapprove 27

Makes sense.

Net approval in Florida is 8% lower than the national approval. Florida also voted 7.8% to the right of the nation in November.

To be on the safe side though I'd scratch off 15 percentage points.

Twelve Thirteen states now. Over one fourth, and Biden is in positive territory in two states that he lost.

A hint: Biden got about the same percentage of the popular vote in 2020 as Reagan got in 1980 against a troubled incumbent. I'm not saying that he wins 49 states in 2024...    

Key:

30% red shade: Biden up 1-5%
40% red shade: Biden up 5-10%
50% red shade: Biden up 10-15%
60% red shade: Biden up 15-20%
70% red shade: Biden up 20-25%
80% red shade: Biden up 25-30%
90% red shade: Biden up 30%+

50% green shade: tie

30% blue shade: Biden down 1-5%
40% blue shade: Biden down 5-10%
50% blue shade: Biden down 10-15%
60% blue shade: Biden down 15-20%
70% blue shade: Biden down 20-25%
80% blue shade: Biden down 25-30%
90% blue shade: Biden down 30%+


It is approval ratings, and not favorability ratings. Favorability ratings are relevant when they are blatant  (as in states that are not close and usually do not get polled, like New York or Oklahoma) because the states rarely decide an election, but they always must defer to approval. Would I use a favorability rating for Illinois? Sure. Wisconsin? Absolutely not.

*an asterisk indicates that I have accepted a favorability rating.  New York State only.

[Tender Branson]

St. Leo is a joke pollster.

They were off by 10 points each in FL and nationally ...

[pbrower2a]

*an asterisk indicates that I have accepted a favorability rating.  New York State only.

A massive asterisk should go on Georgia as well. You used approval of transition for that state, even when a favorability rating is available on the same poll (+11.0%). It's a close state no less so I don't understand why you use "Approval of Transition" when those polls had Biden in the 60s nationally.

Neither the NY nor the GA poll should be used for pbrowers map.

I expect another poll of Georgia fairly soon, Georgia was polled often during the last four years, and I expect it to draw much polling attention again. In those days I typically replaced old polls quickly.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Rs are having a hissy fit the latest polls show Johnson being blanched and Evers by 1 but you can't tell Rs anything, Biden win WI, they think WI is an R state

[Progressive Pessimist]

St. Leo is a joke pollster.

They were off by 10 points each in FL and nationally ...

Well, if they are ten points again, relatively speaking, that's still pretty good for Bide in such a disgrace of a state.

[pbrower2a]

St. Leo is a joke pollster.

They were off by 10 points each in FL and nationally ...

Even with that caveat, Biden is up 9 points in approval. That is the same category as which Biden approval is in Michigan.

The election is over, and the libel that the Trump campaign and the GOP had of Biden-Harris being basically "Castro-Maduro" is over. Approval numbers for President Biden relate to his performance, and not to what his detractors said of him during the election. 

[It’s so Joever]

St. Leo is a joke pollster.

They were off by 10 points each in FL and nationally ...

Well, if they are ten points again, relatively speaking, that's still pretty good for Bide in such a disgrace of a state.

Disgrace of a state = State which doesn't quite vote the way I'd like it to

Correct.
No excuse for voting for Trump.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

The Miami Cubans or whatever don’t want any aid because it’s communism or whatever.

Just wait until the angry Miami Cubans get their $1400 Biden bucks, there will be parades in his honor even larger then when Fidel Castro died.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

I hate to be a naysayer, but you think after the WI poll showed Biden up 1 that we are gonna have a D+9 Environment, Harris doesn't even show herself, she only gives speeches on Talk shows.

I seriously doubt we are gonna win a 2018 landslide, but anything is possible

And everyone didn't get their 699, the IRS said file it on your taxes, the only people that got it were people that worked

All those seniors that didn't file taxes last yr never got it

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Not saying that 2022 is gonna be an R wave, but a neutral cycle is most likely with a narrow House and Senate majority that resurrect the 291 blue wall

NC, OH, FL are wave Insurance only if the Economy comes back to 3.5 percent and full Unemployment, but we haven't seen that since 2019 Xmas time

That's why Evers is slightly leading and Johnson is at 35 percent approvals

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Yeah, we aren't getting any Mason Dixon polls, we should wait on Mason Dixon polls and see what we have in OH and FL, DeSantid and DeWine are very popular. 

We are only getting PPP polls that only polls MI, PA and WI. Mason Dixon polls close to the Election and by next yr we will know if the Economy has come out Recession

[pbrower2a]

I somehow missed this one:

Not saying that 2022 is gonna be an R wave, but a neutral cycle is most likely with a narrow House and Senate majority that resurrect the 291 blue wall

NC, OH, FL are wave Insurance only if the Economy comes back to 3.5 percent and full Unemployment, but we haven't seen that since 2019 Xmas time

That's why Evers is slightly leading and Johnson is at 35 percent approvals

By 291 blue wall do you mean all the states Clinton won + Georgia + NE-2 + ME-2?

I think this would be a more accurate blue wall (for the near future):

When excluding ME-2, this only fetches 220 electoral votes (in 2024 under current projections).

The whole idea of walls anyway is dumb, though. They're simply meant to be broken at some point. The only question is which state will leave first.


Also, new poll that I don't think has been posted here:

Feb. 8 - 9 Poll of 937 Wisconsin voters by Public Policy Polling (PPP)

Do you approve or disapprove of President Joe Biden’s job performance?

Approve 47%
Disapprove 45%
Not sure 8%

Net Approval +2%

I think it's pretty accurate as well because of this question:

In the 2020 election for President, did you vote for Republican Donald Trump, Democrat Joe Biden, someone else, or did you not vote in the election?

Donald Trump 48%
Joe Biden 48%
Someone else 4%

So that's about right

Fourteen states now. Over one fourth, and Biden is in positive territory in two states that he lost. Biden is in positive territory in four of the seven closest states of the 2020 election, two of which he lost, and for the three others (Arizona, Nevada, and Pennsylvania) we simply have no polls.

Wisconsin is not locked down for 2024 according to the above poll. Could it be trending Right?

 Q2 Do you approve or disapprove of Senator Ron
Johnson’s job performance?

Approve 35% .......................................................
Disapprove 48% ...................................................
Not sure 17% ................................................

Q9 Do you think Senator Ron Johnson is more
interested in representing all of Wisconsin, or
more interested in representing only his
supporters?  

Think Senator Ron Johnson is more
interested in representing all of Wisconsin.....37%


Think Senator Ron Johnson is more
interested in representing only his supporters 51%

Not sure 12%

This is one of the most reactionary members of the Senate, and he is up for re-election in 2022. These early numbers are not career-killers, but he has his work cut out for him. He needs a huge shift in the political culture of Wisconsin to get re-elected.

Q4 Do you approve or disapprove of the job
Republicans in the State Legislature are
doing?
Approve 31% .......................................................
Disapprove 55% ...................................................
Not sure 14%

The Wisconsin state legislature could be gerrymandered into safe seats, but this is not a particularly good environment for Republicans in statewide elections.

Q7 Do you have a favorable or unfavorable
opinion of Scott Walker?
Favorable 42% .....................................................
Unfavorable 48% ..................................................
Not sure 11%

An obvious candidate for the Senate seat up in 2022 as a Republican nominee should Ron Johnson choose not to run for re-election. Running for re-election despite polls that show one headed for defeat (Ron Johnson) is an example of vanitas vanitatum. Senator Ron Q-Anon may not see it coming.  

This is a sample close to that of a composite of the electorate of the 2016 or 2020 Presidential election in Wisconsin:.  

Q10 In the 2020 election for President, did you vote
for Republican Donald Trump, Democrat Joe
Biden, someone else, or did you not vote in the
election?
Donald Trump 48% ...............................................
Joe Biden 48% .....................................................
Someone else 4%

A hint: Biden got about the same percentage of the popular vote in 2020 as Reagan got in 1980 against a troubled incumbent. I'm not saying that he wins 49 states in 2024...    

Key:

30% red shade: Biden up 1-5%
40% red shade: Biden up 5-10%
50% red shade: Biden up 10-15%
60% red shade: Biden up 15-20%
70% red shade: Biden up 20-25%
80% red shade: Biden up 25-30%
90% red shade: Biden up 30%+

50% green shade: tie

30% blue shade: Biden down 1-5%
40% blue shade: Biden down 5-10%
50% blue shade: Biden down 10-15%
60% blue shade: Biden down 15-20%
70% blue shade: Biden down 20-25%
80% blue shade: Biden down 25-30%
90% blue shade: Biden down 30%+


It is approval ratings, and not favorability ratings. Favorability ratings are relevant when they are blatant  (as in states that are not close and usually do not get polled, like New York or Oklahoma) because the states rarely decide an election, but they always must defer to approval. Would I use a favorability rating for Illinois? Sure. Wisconsin? Absolutely not.

*an asterisk indicates that I have accepted a favorability rating.  New York State only.

[pbrower2a]

States for which I would most like to see approval polls (not favorability!) in order

1. Georgia (something new)
2. Arizona
3. Pennsylvania
4. Nevada
5. Texas
6. Maine
7. Minnesota
8. Ohio
9. Iowa