Biden approval ratings thread, 1.0

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lol Mattrose is an R, but he is a Dem, he had John James beating Gary Peter's, no one likes McConnell.

He also says Ron DeSantis is gonna be Prez, no

[pbrower2a]

Here's Gallup:

These findings are from a postelection survey conducted Nov. 5-19, a period during which Trump's legal team was challenging the results in a number of states. The increase in Biden's favorability between Gallup's final preelection and first postelection readings is driven by independents and Republicans, whose positive ratings of Biden grew from 48% to 55% and 6% to 12%, respectively. Democrats' nearly unanimous positive ratings remained constant.

Trump's slightly lower postelection favorable rating is owed more to Republicans than independents or Democrats. Republicans' rating of the president fell six points to 89%, while it was essentially unchanged among independents and static among Democrats.

Pre- and Postelection Favorable Readings of Presidential Candidates, 2000-2020
% of Americans with a favorable opinion

Final preelection reading   Postelection reading (Nov/Dec)   Change
%
%
pct. pts.
2020   
Joe Biden           49   55   +6
Donald Trump   45   42   -3
2016   
Donald Trump   34   42   +8
Hillary Clinton   43   43     0
2012   
Barack Obama   55   58   +3
Mitt Romney   46   50   +4
2008   
Barack Obama   62   68   +6
John McCain   50   64   +14
2004   
George W. Bush   51   60   +9
John Kerry      52   NA   NA
2000*   
George W. Bush   55   59   +4
Al Gore           56   57   +1

...my comment:

Donald Trump had a big hole to dig himself out of in 2016, and he may have had far less chance than the average President of building credibility for the next election. He had great difficulty developing rapport with people who voted against him in 2016, and even if he went from getting 45.93% of the popular vote to 47.07% of the popular vote in 2020, he ended up with less than enough in 2020.

It is far easier to govern if one begins with a well-filled reservoir of credibility and hope among the people. Lowered expectations may be easier to achieve, but those are inadequate in the long run. Lowered expectations (the Trump Presidency in 2016) become irrelevant when viable alternatives emerge. Consider the clunker vehicle that you tolerate as you hold a crappy, low-paying job while you attend a vocational-technical course at the community college. You go from being an oil-change 'specialist' to a well-paid technician. Do you go to the tote-the-note lot for another car when that clunker becomes unsafe and unreliable or do you go for a better car, one much newer (or even new)? You know the story.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

High unemployment at the start of the Biden Administration will be faulted upon Donald Trump and COVID-19.

Not in a million years. Do we remember how many people blamed bush for high employment early in the Obama Administration, even though the economic collapse clearly took place on his watch and he merely handed Obama the keys after the car was on fire?

Voters always always always blame the person in charge when things aren't going bad. Biden will be no exception

Voters didn’t blame Obama until his second year. He had 60% approvals for his entire first year. And it makes sense why voters started blaming Obama - unemployment only got worse from Jan 2009 to March 2010 despite stimulus being passed.

[Suburbia]

Why not Bill de Blasio for HUD Secy.?

Get him out of City Hall a year early, let Jumaane Williams be mayor for a year.

[pbrower2a]

High unemployment at the start of the Biden Administration will be faulted upon Donald Trump and COVID-19.

Not in a million years. Do we remember how many people blamed bush for high employment early in the Obama Administration, even though the economic collapse clearly took place on his watch and he merely handed Obama the keys after the car was on fire?

Voters always always always blame the person in charge when things aren't going bad. Biden will be no exception

Voters didn’t blame Obama until his second year. He had 60% approvals for his entire first year. And it makes sense why voters started blaming Obama - unemployment only got worse from Jan 2009 to March 2010 despite stimulus being passed.

Unemployment is a lagging indicator.  Mass employers are chary of laying off large numbers of workers when the economy starts to go into a downturn because few people think that what proves to be a long and severe downturn will be one before it is a long and severe one. Most businesses are optimists when the downturn starts (it won't be that bad) but pessimists when things seem to pick up (it might not be real; this might be a suckers' rally). Usually there is a reduction in hours worked by existing staff during a recession, and when things pick up, so do hours worked by existing employees. Sporadic overtime might be preferable to hiring (and training) new workers.

Sales volume rises, inventories finally get reduced, orders for raw materials increase, hours worked on the job increase, more building permits are applied for and issued... the first people fired or laid off in an economic downturn are generally  not the first people that one wants to rehire.   

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Unemployment is considered UBI now due to the Economy and the Fed Unemployment is gonna be ending Dec 26th, which suits Rs fine, Unemployment or UBI discourages people from working and they just mail you a check without providing you have a job, maybe we don't need it anyways.  Most people are gonna want two yrs unemployment in March anyways and that wasn't allowed after 911

I don't feel bad for the expiration of Unemployment

It's Pelosi fault, she still say 2.2T or nothing 😭😭😭

[wbrocks67]

Will be interesting to see how far Biden's favs/approval go around Inauguration. Given that for some reason, many Americans always *wanted* to give Trump a chance even when he didn't deserve it - wonder if they will do the same for Biden.

[wbrocks67]

Will be interesting to see how far Biden's favs/approval go around Inauguration. Given that for some reason, many Americans always *wanted* to give Trump a chance even when he didn't deserve it - wonder if they will do the same for Biden.

Weird post.

Trump had no honeymoon period, and was consistently in mid-40s in RV polling, higher 40s in LV polling for most of his presidency (low 40s in RV at a couple of brief points), so it was incredibly stable. Was at 45% approval in exit polling during midterms and finished at 50% approval in exit polling this November.





You are entitled to your own opinions, but you are not entitled to your own facts.

Nothing I said was wrong. Trump always got a bounce over things that he shouldn't have - aka just acting like a somewhat competent person. My point is that for whatever sick and twisted reason, many Americans did *NOT* approve but really *WANTED* to. Like they were looking for any reason to give him the benefit of the doubt. Hence, the reprehensible way he has handled the past 4 years and how he had a 50% approval rating on Election Day.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Will be interesting to see how far Biden's favs/approval go around Inauguration. Given that for some reason, many Americans always *wanted* to give Trump a chance even when he didn't deserve it - wonder if they will do the same for Biden.

I doubt it. Trump's enigmatic ability to talk to idiots won't be replicated by Biden. I mean 45% or so of the country are already considering his presidency illegitimate from the get-go. it will probably be the reverse where Biden does deliver on action that actively improves peoples' lives, but he gets nothing for it. That's something that the American public always treats Democratic Presidents to while they try to dig the country out of a whole that their Republican successor left it in.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data, Nov. 30-Dec. 1, 1113 adults including 958 RV (2-week change)

Adults:

Approve 58 (-2)
Disapprove 35 (+4)

Strongly approve 34 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 24 (+4)


RV:

Approve 62 (nc)
Disapprove 34 (+1)

Strongly approve 38 (-1)
Strongly disapprove 24 (+3)

[pbrower2a]

Unemployment is considered UBI now due to the Economy and the Fed Unemployment is gonna be ending Dec 26th, which suits Rs fine, Unemployment or UBI discourages people from working and they just mail you a check without providing you have a job, maybe we don't need it anyways.  Most people are gonna want two yrs unemployment in March anyways and that wasn't allowed after 911

I don't feel bad for the expiration of Unemployment

It's Pelosi fault, she still say 2.2T or nothing 😭😭😭

People on unemployment buy necessities (groceries, rent or mortgage payments, fuel, medical care, utilities, gasoline, car payments if they still have them). They don't buy big-ticket items and they don't go on expensive trips. They certainly don't take out new mortgages or loans for home improvements that do much to drive a strong economy!

Many people may have gone from well-paying jobs, sort-of, to really poor-paying jobs (let us say wait staff at high-quality full-service restaurants to fast-food workers and retail sales clerks).

The demise of COVID-19 will bring a rapid return to normal (more Obama-like than Trump-like) economic conditions. 

[President Johnson]

I'm guessing Biden will have a slightly higher approval rating than Donald Trump, but his ratings seem to be rapidly falling as of now. The honeymoon advantage will probably be negligable when he enters office.

Two points is statistical noise, lmao. I think he will be at around 60-65% for the first month and then remain around 50% for several months. I have a feeling his approval rating will be very stable for the whole term anywhere between 45% and 52%.

[pbrower2a]

Joe Biden will be much less polarizing than Trump. I'm not going to say that the Trump base will like the result, but I can predict that Biden can trade some approval for desirable legislation that causes him to pick off some of what he loses in approval or favorability.

[BobbieMac]

I doubt Biden approval ratings will feel very important especially as he is unlikely to seek a second term.

[pbrower2a]

I doubt Biden approval ratings will feel very important especially as he is unlikely to seek a second term.

The electoral map has been remarkably stable since 2000. At this point I expect a fairly close election. If Joe Biden is a one-term President, then he simply passes the baton with an endorsement.

He knows why he chose Kamala Harris to be VP. It was not to solidify the vote in California to pick up a shaky state. African-Americans were going to vote strongly D in 2020. It is not to reward someone as for "long and faithful service to the Democratic Party". She is an ex-DA, and she knows law... oh, does she know law. After Trump that is precious and will be for at least twelve years (hint, hint!) I doubt that she has any skeletons in her closet.

     

[wbrocks67]

I doubt Biden approval ratings will feel very important especially as he is unlikely to seek a second term.

The electoral map has been remarkably stable since 2000. At this point I expect a fairly close election. If Joe Biden is a one-term President, then he simply passes the baton with an endorsement.

He knows why he chose Kamala Harris to be VP. It was not to solidify the vote in California to pick up a shaky state. African-Americans were going to vote strongly D in 2020. It is not to reward someone as for "long and faithful service to the Democratic Party". She is an ex-DA, and she knows law... oh, does she know law. After Trump that is precious and will be for at least twelve years (hint, hint!) I doubt that she has any skeletons in her closet.

     

Yeah, this is what surprised me the most - most of what is in Harris's history/record has already been litigated (the truancy stuff, Willie Brown "scandal", etc.) - it doesn't appear there's anything major left considering the GOP either couldn't find anything to hit her on this year, or it wasn't good enough to care

[GeorgiaModerate]

The Economist/YouGov tracker, Dec. 6-8, 1500 adults

NOTE: the prior poll (2 weeks ago) was RV rather than adults, so the deltas probably aren't meaningful.

Trump:

Approve 40 (-3)
Disapprove 52 (-3)

Strongly approve 26 (-5)
Strongly disapprove 43 (-4)


Biden:

Approve 52 (-3)
Disapprove 32 (-5)

Strongly approve 34 (-6)
Strongly disapprove 20 (-6)

[It’s so Joever]

Judging from the results of this poll, Biden has become less well known now that he is the president of the United States (well elect)
Makes sense.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Judging from the results of this poll, Biden has become less well known now that he is the president of the United States (well elect)
Makes sense.

They switched from RV to Adults

[bilaps]

Nothing I said was wrong.

Dude, almost everything you said in the last 6 months was wrong.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Marist, Dec. 1-6, 916 RV

"Do you approve or disapprove of the job President-elect Joe Biden is doing on the transition?"

Approve 56
Disapprove 29

D: 81/9
R: 22/61
I: 59/24

[GeorgiaModerate]

Ipsos Core Political Data (weekly), Dec. 2-8, 4419 adults including 3812 RV

Note: before anyone freaks out about the deltas, last week's sample was more Democratic/less Republican than this week's (53D/38R/10I last week, 51D/39R/11I this week among RVs; party breakdown among adults not shown).


Biden:

Adults:

Approve 56 (-2)
Disapprove 35 (nc)

Strongly approve 31 (-3)
Strongly disapprove 23 (-1)

RV:

Approve 57 (-5)
Disapprove 36 (+2)

Strongly approve 34 (-4)
Strongly disapprove 25 (+1)


Trump:

Adults:

Approve 41 (+3)
Disapprove 55 (-4)

Strongly approve 24 (+1)
Strongly disapprove 43 (-5)

RV:

Approve 42 (+5)
Disapprove 56 (-6)

Strongly approve 26 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 45 (-6)

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

It's nice to see that even with all of the bogus claims of voter fraud and illegitimacy, Joe is able to experience a honeymoon period.

[wbrocks67]

Nothing I said was wrong.

Dude, almost everything you said in the last 6 months was wrong.

you seem really obsessed with my posts

[Progressive Pessimist]

It's nice to see that even with all of the bogus claims of voter fraud and illegitimacy, Joe is able to experience a honeymoon period.

Well, he did win an actual majority of the country's voters.