Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Blair]

Ukraine should give up Donbass at this point, and give up NATO membership as well, in exchange for continued sovereignty. If Russia pushes further, surrender without fighting.

An analogy is this: when being robbed, you give up exactly what the robber asks for. Your possessions aren’t worth your life. Similarily, Ukraine’s sovereignty is not worth having hundreds of thousands of people die.

Worth noting they did this in 2014- didn’t fight over Crimea.

There’s a risk that no matter what they agree Putin will still come back.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Ukraine should give up Donbass at this point, and give up NATO membership as well, in exchange for continued sovereignty. If Russia pushes further, surrender without fighting.

An analogy is this: when being robbed, you give up exactly what the robber asks for. Your possessions aren’t worth your life. Similarily, Ukraine’s sovereignty is not worth having hundreds of thousands of people die.

Worth noting they did this in 2014- didn’t fight over Crimea.

There’s a risk that no matter what they agree Putin will still come back.

What TheReckoning is positing sounds similar to the Finlandization suggestion I believe Macron suggested? Could be confusing things here.

[Aurelius]

If I were Zelensky I'd be doing everything in my power to get my hands on nukes as quickly as possible.

[emailking]

Ukraine should give up Donbass at this point, and give up NATO membership as well, in exchange for continued sovereignty. If Russia pushes further, surrender without fighting.

An analogy is this: when being robbed, you give up exactly what the robber asks for. Your possessions aren’t worth your life. Similarily, Ukraine’s sovereignty is not worth having hundreds of thousands of people die.

I guess, but going with that analogy, if someone is being robbed (and assuming they're alone) I think it's their choice whether they want to give up or fight.

Implicit in Recoking's analysis is the fact that this is a fight they cannot win.

I'm not so sure about that. Russia could win if they really want to but the cost might not be worth it if they fight back hard.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

If I were Zelensky I'd be doing everything in my power to get my hands on nukes as quickly as possible.

Even North Korea probably isn't crazy enough to sell a nuke. They might take your money and not deliver anything though.

[Cassius]

author=Cody link=topic=469771.msg8490038#msg8490038 date=1645522330 uid=33856]
If I were Zelensky I'd be doing everything in my power to get my hands on nukes as quickly as possible.

That would be a sure fire way to ensure that the Russian army goes storming into Kiev. Really to me it seems as though Zelensky’s behaviour has been the one of the proximate causes of the present situation, as I think his crackdown on Medvedchuk (as we know, a close friend of Putin) and the other pro Russian forces in the country has been responsible for spurring Putin into action during the last year.

The other proximate cause is presumably Putin’s perception that Biden is in fact all talk and no trousers as regards foreign policy (see Afghanistan) and that he isn’t willing to go further in any circumstance than sanctions (which Russia can survive, although at cost). Put these two factors together and it actually makes sense as to why this conflict has suddenly unfrozen, although my own personal opinion is that a Russian attempt to occupy all of Ukraine, with the view to detaching further territory and installing a pro-Kremlin government would be seriously unwise. But then who knows what Putin’s end game really is. My original assumption was that the plan was to force Zelensky to end the crackdown on the pro-Russian forces and commit once more to multi-vectoral foreign policy (as with Kuchma, Yuschenko and Yanukoych), but now it seems likely that Russia will go well beyond that.

[President Johnson]

BREAKING: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announces de facto suspension of Nordstream 2 pipeline. Also, it seems like EU is about to impose very tough sanctions, including measures to restrict Russia's access to financial markets and a ban on trading with Russian government bonds.

https://twitter.com/philipoltermann/status/1496078379426136064

https://twitter.com/POLITICOEurope/status/1496079416203657218

[jaichind]

US equity futures rises the last hour to a level near when France announced a possible Biden-Putin summit.  I guess traders think that now there is a chance of an equilibrium where Putin gets a domestic win and the collective West and Ukraine do not consider the latest move an invasion. 

[jaichind]

BREAKING: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announces de facto suspension of Nordstream 2 pipeline. Also, it seems like EU is about to impose very tough sanctions, including measures to restrict Russia's access to financial markets and a ban on trading with Russian government bonds.

https://twitter.com/philipoltermann/status/1496078379426136064

https://twitter.com/POLITICOEurope/status/1496079416203657218

In other words, Germany will consider stopping Nord Stream 2 if the USA can come in and subsidize LNG for Germany to match the prices Russian gas would provide.  That would be great for Germany but I do not think the USA midterm voters would approve.  Still, if some weaker version of that takes place the clear winner would be PRC.  The PRC gets a weakening of a manufacturing rival saddled with higher energy costs and the PRC also gets a more desperate Russia that will have to shift their gas east where the PRC can buy at a lower price and further bind Russia to the PRC economy.

[jaichind]

If I were Zelensky I'd be doing everything in my power to get my hands on nukes as quickly as possible.

Look, in retrospect, it was a mistake for Ukraine to give up nuclear weapons.  But, as Putin said, it was also a mistake for Russia to allow the other USSR republics to break away in 1991 without a discussion of the national question and what should be the borders of each republic.  But what is done is done.  Any attempt for Ukraine to get nukes will clearly head to a Russian invasion.

[Omega21]

BREAKING: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announces de facto suspension of Nordstream 2 pipeline. Also, it seems like EU is about to impose very tough sanctions, including measures to restrict Russia's access to financial markets and a ban on trading with Russian government bonds.

Petro nations right about now

[CumbrianLefty]

How has BigSerg managed to vote in the poll 4 times?

[LAKISYLVANIA]

While i don't often agree with all pro-Ukraine statements, it's becoming clear to me who in this case is the agressor. Putin lives in a 10th world century ideal where he thinks Kiev belongs to Russia because it's where the Russian civilisation started 1000 years ago. What happened in the past, happened. I think it is time to move on. We live in the 21st century. If every country wants to take back what was once supposed to be theirs, you're gonna have a lot of wars, and Russia theirselves will have a lot of wars too, because Japan & Finland also have territories in Russia which was actually theirs.

I believe in diplomacy and in peace, but it is increasingly becoming clear Putin doesn't care for that at all, and that he also doesn't care about human suffering, as long they're no Russians. Putin is proving right now why NATO is needed. I wasn't supportive of NATO but Putin has proven that we need NATO after all, even today. I wasn't supportive of NATO but that certainly changed in the past weeks.

[jaichind]

RUB is now above 79.  Financial markets clearly take the view that escalation has peaked and, while there is a significant chance of a blowup, the trend is toward de-escalation.

[Velasco]

Leonid Kravchuk was the last head of state of the Ukrainian SSR, as well as the first Ukrainian president

I think the USSR formally recognized the right to self-determination for its constituent republics,  so all of them have the right to exist as independent countries.

Another question is whether the dissolution of the USSR could have been implemented in a more orderly fashion, retaining some common institutions to solve disputes and foster regional cooperation.

Personally I think it was a huge mistake expanding the EU eastwards. One can wonder whether certain countries were ready for liberal democracy,  because the illiberal turn of Poland and Hungary suggests otherwise. It should have been a more gradual process,  imo. As for expanding the NATO to the Russian borders, it's hard to argue this move is unrelated to the rise of certain forms of Russian nationalism. In other words, western countries can't criticize Putin's nationalism without asking themsrlves in what degree they've contributed to that. Maybe the architecture of security and international relationships could have been different

Of course Ukraine should exist, but it's hard to argue against the idea that it looks like a failed and disfunctional state. It is also hard to ignore that Ukraine has a powerful neighbour called Russia and that there exists a strong historical connection between both nations. Ukraine should exist, but I doubt Ukraine can exist against Russia

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

RUB is now above 79.  Financial markets clearly take the view that escalation has peaked and, while there is a significant chance of a blowup, the trend is toward de-escalation.

Probably, because neither US or EU want to describe it as invasion. Yet, at least.

https://twitter.com/MarquardtA/status/1496077888591994880

https://www.reuters.com/world/us-casts-doubt-biden-summit-with-putin-eyes-new-sanctions-tuesday-official-2022-02-21/

WASHINGTON, Feb 21 (Reuters) - President Vladimir Putin's decision to send troops he called peacemakers into breakaway regions of Ukraine did not constitute a further invasion that would trigger a broader sanctions package, a Biden administration official told Reuters on Monday, but the White House believes a full invasion could come at any time.

The United States will continue to pursue diplomacy with Russia until "tanks roll," another official told reporters.

But it still unclear, what sanctions they will enforce. It's as well unclear, if Germany killed NS2 for good, or just "indefinitely" as threat. NS2 would be fully operational ~next fall.

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

BREAKING: German Chancellor Olaf Scholz announces de facto suspension of Nordstream 2 pipeline. Also, it seems like EU is about to impose very tough sanctions, including measures to restrict Russia's access to financial markets and a ban on trading with Russian government bonds.

https://twitter.com/philipoltermann/status/1496078379426136064
https://twitter.com/POLITICOEurope/status/1496079416203657218

In other words, Germany will consider stopping Nord Stream 2 if the USA can come in and subsidize LNG for Germany to match the prices Russian gas would provide.  That would be great for Germany but I do not think the USA midterm voters would approve.  Still, if some weaker version of that takes place the clear winner would be PRC.  The PRC gets a weakening of a manufacturing rival saddled with higher energy costs and the PRC also gets a more desperate Russia that will have to shift their gas east where the PRC can buy at a lower price and further bind Russia to the PRC economy.

Won't Germany just burn more coal?

[StateBoiler]

Probably, because neither US or EU want to describe it as invasion. Yet, at least.

https://twitter.com/MarquardtA/status/1496077888591994880

https://www.reuters.com/world/us-casts-doubt-biden-summit-with-putin-eyes-new-sanctions-tuesday-official-2022-02-21/

WASHINGTON, Feb 21 (Reuters) - President Vladimir Putin's decision to send troops he called peacemakers into breakaway regions of Ukraine did not constitute a further invasion that would trigger a broader sanctions package, a Biden administration official told Reuters on Monday, but the White House believes a full invasion could come at any time.

Considering they don't recognize Crimea as Russian, Russian troops have been on Ukrainian soil for 7 years.

[Mr. Illini]

Ukraine should give up Donbass at this point, and give up NATO membership as well, in exchange for continued sovereignty. If Russia pushes further, surrender without fighting.

An analogy is this: when being robbed, you give up exactly what the robber asks for. Your possessions aren’t worth your life. Similarily, Ukraine’s sovereignty is not worth having hundreds of thousands of people die.

I imagine many Ukrainians wouldn’t see much of a difference between an invasion and occupation by Russia and becoming a vassal state.

[jaichind]

Won't Germany just burn more coal?

They do not have enough coal plants anymore.  Germany's big mistake was shutting down their nuclear power plants which made them dependent on Russian gas.

The current situation is
Germany: Nuclear power is bad
Also Germany: Amm .. France, can you send me more of your nuclear power?

[Middle-aged Europe]

In an usual move, the collective leadership of the Left Party in Germany - usually the most pro-Russian party along with the AfD - has denounced the recognition of DNR and LNR as a violation of international law and has called for the removal of all Russian troops from Donbas:


https://twitter.com/DietmarBartsch/status/1495879953879113730


https://twitter.com/SusanneHennig/status/1495996377519869952


Even Trotskyist co-chair Janine Wissler tweets: "this is no 'peace mission', but a violation of international law".

https://twitter.com/Janine_Wissler/status/1495912570095640578


I doubt that the AfD will follow suit though... they usually attempt to outdo the Left Party, especially in areas where the Left has started to move towards the "mainstream" and left a flank open.

[Meclazine for Israel]

I always grew up in a world where borders were locked and defined on Google Maps. Apart from 'Westerm Sahara', there is not many new borders.

Even the great American 'peace-keeping' expeditions of the last 50 years failed to change many borders.

Yet before any of us where alive, new borders and countries were common place.

[Zinneke]

Tbf the French far right candidates also seemed to sheepishly admit Putin had gone overboard. He is very close to overplaying his hand if he hasn't already.

[CumbrianLefty]

Tbf the French far right candidates also seemed to sheepishly admit Putin had gone overboard. He is very close to overplaying his hand if he hasn't already.

Yeah, the reaction internationally is interesting isn't it. Very few overt Putin supporters left.

[StateBoiler]

Tbf the French far right candidates also seemed to sheepishly admit Putin had gone overboard. He is very close to overplaying his hand if he hasn't already.

Yeah, the reaction internationally is interesting isn't it. Very few overt Putin supporters left.

2008 Georgia - lots of angst, this is terrible, in the end they did nothing of material value
2014 Crimea - lots of angst, this is terrible, in the end they did nothing of material value
2022 Donbass - lots of angst, this is terrible, to be determined

I don't think this conflict ends here so this is going to be more than Donbass so it's incorrect to act like that's all that's happening in 2022. But sanctions are not of material value. This has been proven time and time again in multiple countries.