It's interesting just how much influence these people put on polls.
I have no idea if Biden will win GA or not, but it's another case of every actual election since 2018 has shown GA to be moving leftward. The only thing that says it's not are polls and crosstabs (usually of black voters specifically since Biden is usually holding his own with white voters more often than not in GA polls)
Exactly. I think another fallacy is if people see a poll that shows GA blacks like 60 Biden - 10 Trump, they assume the "undecides" will ultimately break even.
The fact that Biden is holding firm with white voters in GA means he needs a big swing from voters of color to win Georgia by as much as some of these polls predict.
I think low black turnout is a much bigger threat to Biden's prospects in GA than black voters swinging noticeably to the right.
This is basically what people are expecting at this point.
Not just POC but also young whites (but Biden seems to gain a little with suburban whites or the elderly to offset those losses).
Lots of progressives staying home make a lot of sense. On some issues the Democrats aren't better than the Republicans or just do what the Republicans do.
A major drop in urban turnout hurts Biden a lot.
