French presidential election, 2022

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

First results from Paris:

Hidalgo can't even place in the top 5 in Paris.
Comes to show how weak the PS is by now.

[Vosem]

Are we getting the hyper-detailed demographic breakdowns we got in 2017?

Repeating this question since no one answered it -- when (if at all) are we getting the hyper-detailed breakdowns by class/age/religious observation/etc. that we got in 2017?

[Antonio the Sixth]

The scores coming out of Ile-de-France are absolutely bonkers. Mélenchon is ahead in Seine-et-Marne, normally a very right-wing exurban hellscape that I expected to go easily for Le Pen, or at most for Macron if he won big. And remember Vélizy, Pécresse's old stronghold? Well, Mélenchon came in second there with 21% (Pécresse was at 11% lol). Absolutely wild stuff.

[Oryxslayer]

Melenchon wins the traditionally conservative Seine-et-Marne by less then 1%. Obviously fueled by large margins in S-S-D spillover, but lets see the hot takes.

[parochial boy]

First results from Paris:

The 10 and 11th arrondissements = hipster central

Also wins Clermont-Ferrand, La Havre. Almost wins Brest, Caen, Orleans, Metz, Dijon, and other cities when compared to Macron. Any discussion of polarization has to note that Melenchon was clearly the urban poor candidate, when compared to Macron's financially-stable urban/suburban coalition.

Gets a big win in Rennes as well, and a double digit one in Mulhouse - I almost fell of my chair with that one.

While Nantes is trendy and affluent; Rennes is (not poor, but is) strongly associated with the "punk à chien" stereotype (homeless guy with a dog drinking a can of 8.6% beer), but the city is in fact rammed full of students. Mélenchon is hitting the urban working classes, but also the highly educated but often precarious living youth.

[warandwar]

Melenchon will finish so close to taking Le Pen out of the runoff but won’t do it.

If only some people didn’t waste their vote going for people with no chances like Hidalgo, Jadot or even the Communist Party candidate (who performed better than Hidalgo), Le Pen’s political career would’ve been done.

Mélenchon is solely to blame. He is the one that ruled out a primary because, in his own words, the first round is the primary.

And the trio of selfless egoless figures of Hildalgo, Jadot, and Roussel obviously never would have acted like that had they been in his shoes.
Melanchon's belief that he alone could muster support beyond the miniscule group of people who'd vote in such a primary has been proven to be completely accurate. Could it just be that Fabian Roussel, etc truly does have bad politics and should be marginalized?

[kaoras]

There are already results from the 5,6,8,9 and 10 arrondisseents, I don't want to spam the thread but Melenchón is making gains even in the very right wing ones.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Commune of Versailes:
Macron 33
Zemmour 18
Melenchon 14.07
Pecresse 14.04
LePen 9
Jadot 6
Melenchon surpassing Pecresse in Versailles sounds impressive, but it might not be in context.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

By good FP I mean he’s  the only president not to hate on America when we do stuff but then expect us to be a sugar daddy for them .

You're right. They should've paid their debt and sent French soldiers to die in Iraq. How dare they criticize us for starting a war based on lies?

Holy F nationalism is dumb

France and Germany literally tried to form an alliance with Russia in 2003 so it just wasn’t about sending troops . They were explicitly anti American at that point and treated us as we were the villains  guys in Iraq rather than Iraq just being a mistaken intervention

How is this even offensive. Not everyone has to be as jingoistic and apologetic as you.

We provide for their defense so at the very least they should refrain from hating us

France has the strongest army in Europe.

Isnt that the UK

No. France is the strongest military power in Europe and probably the most intervention-happy. If you want to whine about anyone, whine about Germany. Except apparently not anymore...

Macron’s ventures abroad could be part of what costs him the presidency.

[Red Velvet]

If anything, these results show Melenchon was completely right in ditching the center-left trash lol. His appeal comes from being anti-system. He’s stealing a lot of Le Pen areas because of that and showing the left HOW you fight the populist right.

The likes of Jadot/Hidalgo cannot even get to 5%, they have no leverage for demands.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

39 of 47 communes reporting in Val-de-Marne.
Melenchon is ahead of Macron by 976 votes.

[Vosem]

If anything, these results show Melenchon was completely right in ditching the center-left trash lol. His appeal comes from being anti-system. He’s stealing a lot of Le Pen areas because of that and showing the left HOW you fight the populist right.

The likes of Jadot/Hidalgo cannot even get to 5%, they have no leverage for demands.

Isn't Melenchon's coalition just unexpectedly urban, not unexpectedly working-class? It seems like it's Macron (...or even Fillon) areas he's stealing from, not Le Pen ones.

(ie, relative to 2017 he lost Dordogne but picked up Seine-et-Marne)

The thing here is that in previous French elections we've gotten super-detailed vote breakdowns by class, so this is something that we might not have to speculate about much longer.

[Zinneke]

Melenchon will finish so close to taking Le Pen out of the runoff but won’t do it.

If only some people didn’t waste their vote going for people with no chances like Hidalgo, Jadot or even the Communist Party candidate (who performed better than Hidalgo), Le Pen’s political career would’ve been done.

Mélenchon is solely to blame. He is the one that ruled out a primary because, in his own words, the first round is the primary.

And the trio of selfless egoless figures of Hildalgo, Jadot, and Roussel obviously never would have acted like that had they been in his shoes.
Melanchon's belief that he alone could muster support beyond the miniscule group of people who'd vote in such a primary has been proven to be completely accurate. Could it just be that Fabian Roussel, etc truly does have bad politics and should be marginalized?

If anything, these results show Melenchon was completely right in ditching the center-left trash lol. His appeal comes from being anti-system. He’s stealing a lot of Le Pen areas because of that and showing the left HOW you fight the populist right.

The likes of Jadot/Hidalgo cannot even get to 5%, they have no leverage for demands.

Ok chaps, for the sake of argument let's take Hidalgo and Jadot out of the equation (even though Jadot by virtue of his non-candidacy in 2017 probably is pretty selfless yes. All Mélenchon had to do was bring Roussel and the PCF on board...that didn't happen because Mélenchon refuses to even consider any challenge to his own hegemony, and is outright ditching most Left symbology anyway because what he wants is the Jean-Luc Mélenchon show, not any genuine Left government.

[kaoras]

First results from Lyon

[parochial boy]

Zemmour - 19% in Neuilly-sur-Seine; 15% in the 8th, obviously looking forward to the 16th

The bling-bling west of Paris is his heartland, so maybe lets rethink a few of those clichés about racism being a particularly working class affectation.

Mélenchon also on over 40% in Lille, but that was always going to be his strongest big city

[brucejoel99]

If anything, these results show Melenchon was completely right in ditching the center-left trash lol. His appeal comes from being anti-system. He’s stealing a lot of Le Pen areas because of that and showing the left HOW you fight the populist right.

The likes of Jadot/Hidalgo cannot even get to 5%, they have no leverage for demands.

Lmao what? If it weren't for Mélenchon's ego, then he'd be able to see clear as day that their combined >6% of the vote alone - >8% when factoring in the Communists, who were literally a part of Mélenchon's bloc last time - outweighing the <1% that could ultimately separate him from the 2nd round means that they'd actually have a sh*tton of leverage if it weren't for the fact that he can't even see/care about that leverage because he's, again, too busy focusing on his own ego to look out for his own political self-interest.

[Oryxslayer]

If anything, these results show Melenchon was completely right in ditching the center-left trash lol. His appeal comes from being anti-system. He’s stealing a lot of Le Pen areas because of that and showing the left HOW you fight the populist right.

The likes of Jadot/Hidalgo cannot even get to 5%, they have no leverage for demands.

Bad take. He's going backwards in a lot of Le Pen rurals, but gaining in the Young/diverse/poor cities and adjacent areas with those characteristics. These areas mainly went Macron - or were previously good but not overwhelmingly so for Hamon/Melenchon - but Macron went backwards cause he is longer seen as a candidate who cares for those voters.

Real question is what happens in these urban cores in the legislatives. LREM holds most of the seats covering them right now, with the constellation of the Left parties holding only the safest of them. There is potential here, but Melenchon is his party, he'd lack the goal and personality that are big motivators in a national contest. I assume therefore that the other Left parties will try to make plays with some success against LREM here, but obviously LREM will be making gains against LR elsewhere in compensation.

[Vosem]

Melenchon will finish so close to taking Le Pen out of the runoff but won’t do it.

If only some people didn’t waste their vote going for people with no chances like Hidalgo, Jadot or even the Communist Party candidate (who performed better than Hidalgo), Le Pen’s political career would’ve been done.

Mélenchon is solely to blame. He is the one that ruled out a primary because, in his own words, the first round is the primary.

And the trio of selfless egoless figures of Hildalgo, Jadot, and Roussel obviously never would have acted like that had they been in his shoes.
Melanchon's belief that he alone could muster support beyond the miniscule group of people who'd vote in such a primary has been proven to be completely accurate. Could it just be that Fabian Roussel, etc truly does have bad politics and should be marginalized?

If anything, these results show Melenchon was completely right in ditching the center-left trash lol. His appeal comes from being anti-system. He’s stealing a lot of Le Pen areas because of that and showing the left HOW you fight the populist right.

The likes of Jadot/Hidalgo cannot even get to 5%, they have no leverage for demands.

Ok chaps, for the sake of argument let's take Hidalgo and Jadot out of the equation (even though Jadot by virtue of his non-candidacy in 2017 probably is pretty selfless yes. All Mélenchon had to do was bring Roussel and the PCF on board...that didn't happen because Mélenchon refuses to even consider any challenge to his own hegemony, and is outright ditching most Left symbology anyway because what he wants is the Jean-Luc Mélenchon show, not any genuine Left government.

Given that Melenchon has no remotely obvious successor, is the choice for 2027 either him running again (presumably more entrenched as the main left-wing candidate if he wants it) or another ridiculous multi-candidate pile-up?

(Or the left actually having a serious multi-candidate primary and then respecting the outcome? Sounds crazy, I know, but with Melenchon stepping out of the way it seems at least possible.)

[warandwar]

Melenchon will finish so close to taking Le Pen out of the runoff but won’t do it.

If only some people didn’t waste their vote going for people with no chances like Hidalgo, Jadot or even the Communist Party candidate (who performed better than Hidalgo), Le Pen’s political career would’ve been done.

Mélenchon is solely to blame. He is the one that ruled out a primary because, in his own words, the first round is the primary.

And the trio of selfless egoless figures of Hildalgo, Jadot, and Roussel obviously never would have acted like that had they been in his shoes.
Melanchon's belief that he alone could muster support beyond the miniscule group of people who'd vote in such a primary has been proven to be completely accurate. Could it just be that Fabian Roussel, etc truly does have bad politics and should be marginalized?

If anything, these results show Melenchon was completely right in ditching the center-left trash lol. His appeal comes from being anti-system. He’s stealing a lot of Le Pen areas because of that and showing the left HOW you fight the populist right.

The likes of Jadot/Hidalgo cannot even get to 5%, they have no leverage for demands.

Ok chaps, for the sake of argument let's take Hidalgo and Jadot out of the equation (even though Jadot by virtue of his non-candidacy in 2017 probably is pretty selfless yes. All Mélenchon had to do was bring Roussel and the PCF on board...that didn't happen because Mélenchon refuses to even consider any challenge to his own hegemony, and is outright ditching most Left symbology anyway because what he wants is the Jean-Luc Mélenchon show, not any genuine Left government.

I can't imagine a more ideologically bankrupt party than the PCF. Why should i have any sympathy for them? They deserved any unkind treatment they got from Melanchon.

[Continential]

Melenchon will finish so close to taking Le Pen out of the runoff but won’t do it.

If only some people didn’t waste their vote going for people with no chances like Hidalgo, Jadot or even the Communist Party candidate (who performed better than Hidalgo), Le Pen’s political career would’ve been done.

Mélenchon is solely to blame. He is the one that ruled out a primary because, in his own words, the first round is the primary.

And the trio of selfless egoless figures of Hildalgo, Jadot, and Roussel obviously never would have acted like that had they been in his shoes.
Melanchon's belief that he alone could muster support beyond the miniscule group of people who'd vote in such a primary has been proven to be completely accurate. Could it just be that Fabian Roussel, etc truly does have bad politics and should be marginalized?

If anything, these results show Melenchon was completely right in ditching the center-left trash lol. His appeal comes from being anti-system. He’s stealing a lot of Le Pen areas because of that and showing the left HOW you fight the populist right.

The likes of Jadot/Hidalgo cannot even get to 5%, they have no leverage for demands.

Ok chaps, for the sake of argument let's take Hidalgo and Jadot out of the equation (even though Jadot by virtue of his non-candidacy in 2017 probably is pretty selfless yes. All Mélenchon had to do was bring Roussel and the PCF on board...that didn't happen because Mélenchon refuses to even consider any challenge to his own hegemony, and is outright ditching most Left symbology anyway because what he wants is the Jean-Luc Mélenchon show, not any genuine Left government.

I can't imagine a more ideologically bankrupt party than the PCF. Why should i have any sympathy for them? They deserved any unkind treatment they got from Melanchon.

And Melenchon doesn't deserve their support unconditionally.

[Oryxslayer]

All that is left now is Marseilles, Nice, Toulon, Toulouse, Lyon, Montpellier, Bordeaux, Strasbourg, Saint-Étienne, and the Parisian core communes.

Melenchon won Amiens and Grenoble, barely lost Tours.

[warandwar]

Who are these French politicians without egos that everyone seems to be thinking about?

[PSOL]

Melenchon did the best he could given the circumstances, and anyone not critiquing his campaign in good faith, ie from the real left™️, is wrong. I’m not going to add more because doing it here is frankly a waste of energy best used elsewhere.

[SunSt0rm]

All that is left now is Marseilles, Nice, Toulon, Toulouse, Lyon, Montpellier, Bordeaux, Strasbourg, Saint-Étienne, and the Parisian core communes.

Melenchon won Amiens, barely lost Tours.

Its not going to happen then,Melenchon is not going to be able to close down 1.1 million vote margin

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Who are these French politicians without egos that everyone seems to be thinking about?

Put from another way, Melenchon acting differently or trying to act with more unity with left-leaning politicians might even provoke Le Pen and Zemmour to run on a unity ticket. It would likely backfire and make it harder for him to get to the run-off.