Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Badger]

Even mass conscription won't save the Russian war effort in Ukraine:

https://twitter.com/daxe/status/1572343200534171648

Mobilization could make military service compulsory for millions of Russians who, at present, easily can avoid the armed forces’ twice-a-year draft. In theory, mobilization could swell the Russian army’s ranks by millions.

In practice, those throngs of new troops would lack instructors to train them, units to absorb them, commanders to lead them, noncommissioned officers to mentor them and equipment to give them useful combat power.

The main effects of mobilization would be to clog up the army’s fragile home garrisons, undermine the legitimacy of Putin and his regime, deplete the federal treasury and—in the best case—feed into Ukraine a lot of untrained, under-equipped and poorly led men who, more likely that not, quickly would surrender, desert or die.

"We have reserves" has basically been the Russian military motto for as long as Russia has existed, and if we've reached the point where that is no longer viable, well, that definitely changes what kind of military power they can be.

Which shows another thing, its easier to "support" the war when it won't be you or those close to you fighting it. Full mobilisation has the potential, at least, to be a fiasco.

I'm going to be honest here: what Industrial war has Russia won principally through her larger numbers, with the exception of WWII? All other examples seem to point to losses that eventually force the regime to bend or break because they poured in so many men and made the politics of the war unavoidable. Crimea, Manchuria, WWI, Finland, Afghanistan/(Chernobyl?)...the list isn't that favorable. Because the masses don't like being thrown into the meat grinder with little support.

WWII of course looms large in the state mythology, which is why everything about it looms large in everyone's mind. But in many ways it is the exception rather than the rule.

The war against napoleon, Plus their War under Catherine the Great against the Turks. But your point is well taken.

[walleye26]

How likely are we to see some “fragging” like what happened to American officers in Vietnam? I mean, an unpopular war with unwilling participants might lend themselves to that.

Also, do we have any idea how many Russians have left the country so far? While some earlier posters have mentioned effects on the Russian economy, you’d need a high number of people leaving. Hundreds of thousands would have to leave. Is there a way we could find that information out?

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Every Azovstal defender has been freed. In exchange Russia gets...  Medvedchuk? Putin is completely delusional.
https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1572696559166566402

Eww. Just to be clear, while I stand with the Ukrainians, the disgusting azov soldiers are NOT hero’s in the slightest. They should’ve been left to die in captivity imo.

[Oryxslayer]

Even mass conscription won't save the Russian war effort in Ukraine:

https://twitter.com/daxe/status/1572343200534171648

Mobilization could make military service compulsory for millions of Russians who, at present, easily can avoid the armed forces’ twice-a-year draft. In theory, mobilization could swell the Russian army’s ranks by millions.

In practice, those throngs of new troops would lack instructors to train them, units to absorb them, commanders to lead them, noncommissioned officers to mentor them and equipment to give them useful combat power.

The main effects of mobilization would be to clog up the army’s fragile home garrisons, undermine the legitimacy of Putin and his regime, deplete the federal treasury and—in the best case—feed into Ukraine a lot of untrained, under-equipped and poorly led men who, more likely that not, quickly would surrender, desert or die.

"We have reserves" has basically been the Russian military motto for as long as Russia has existed, and if we've reached the point where that is no longer viable, well, that definitely changes what kind of military power they can be.

Which shows another thing, its easier to "support" the war when it won't be you or those close to you fighting it. Full mobilisation has the potential, at least, to be a fiasco.

I'm going to be honest here: what Industrial war has Russia won principally through her larger numbers, with the exception of WWII? All other examples seem to point to losses that eventually force the regime to bend or break because they poured in so many men and made the politics of the war unavoidable. Crimea, Manchuria, WWI, Finland, Afghanistan/(Chernobyl?)...the list isn't that favorable. Because the masses don't like being thrown into the meat grinder with little support.

WWII of course looms large in the state mythology, which is why everything about it looms large in everyone's mind. But in many ways it is the exception rather than the rule.

The war against napoleon, Plus their War under Catherine the Great against the Turks. But your point is well taken.

I didn't think those qualified as Industrial wars - certainly modern ones though. The recognizable features of Industrial warfare such as the military-industrial complex, precision weaponry (earliest being the Minié Rifle), limited or no use of Horses, specialty/preserved rations (canning), and the stable militarized front rather than armies as single masses that seek conflict with each other. Arguably they fit into the period where warfare became modern but not yet Industrial, and therefore mass numbers greatly increased odds of victory (seen by the levee en masse) since you could bring a heavier volley of fire and a wider line to outmaneuver the foe.

[HillGoose]

A lot of revision and mindless "ASIATIC HORDES BEING SENT TO THE SLAUGHTER" which was a common German trope during WWII.

Ukraine has been in mobilization since the conflict started, and it has shown to be hugely effective. There has been no indication Russia can't do this yet, so spare your conclusion for the war already.

lol - Russia has been unable to properly supply or equip their smaller "professional force", so it stands to reason that they will not be able to supply or equip conscripts.

As for your Ukraine comment, it should be evident why a nation mobilizing for national defense would tend to be much more effective than a nation mobilizing for a foreign adventure.

Again, no basis for this. The small force as you put it, as far as I can see, has maintained a stable frontline from the edge of the Oskil river to the right bank of the Dniepr for half a year now, against a fully wartime Ukraine.. with the expectation of Izium, and guess what, it's a war, there is a different outcome in every front - alas the collapse of Popasna/Lysychansk & Severodonetsk. They are still  conducting offensive operations in Bakhmut and around Donetsk.

Individual videos of HIMARS strikes and a couple of dead RU soldiers don't show the larger picture.

You say you want Ukraine defended but dude with Russian propaganda because the West isn’t doing enough? What is enough?

Should have guaranteed NATO membership from the beginning instead of constantly dangling it in front their face & pussyfooting.

hell ya if they had been admitted to NATO a while ago the war would already be over, Putin would be gone, and Russia would be liberated, it would be badass

[DaleCooper]

Now is really the time to amp up financial and military support for Ukraine. With all these conscripts coming in, the goal should be to kill as many Russians on the battlefield as possible. This is a chance to really make the Russian people suffer for their worship of Putin.

[HillGoose]

A lot of revision and mindless "ASIATIC HORDES BEING SENT TO THE SLAUGHTER" which was a common German trope during WWII.

Ukraine has been in mobilization since the conflict started, and it has shown to be hugely effective. There has been no indication Russia can't do this yet, so spare your conclusion for the war already.

The Russkies will lose because Putin is a demon incarnated into human form, there is no reason for ppl in his country to want to fight for him.

Ukraine are defending their homeland, that is why they have been effective. At least that's my impression

[Badger]

Give this a read.
https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1572571676524838915

Did so. Short, but highly informative indeed. Very recommended.

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/ABarbashin/status/1572578647919464449?s=20&t=_WPaaaCs0wH...

This raises a point though. Thanks to the presidential decree it is clearly specified that receiving a prison sentence will result in dismissal from the army.

So why bother protesting and getting a heavy sentence? Go commit some petty crime that results in a short custodial sentence, deliberately get caught, and then you're safe.

Although it didn't get much press, I am seriously believing that the reported attempted assassination of Putin the other week was real. Because it passed so quickly, or in fact wasn't really reported at all in Russian media, demonstrates it was not used as some sort of sympathy rally around the leader floyd. It's thoroughly against Putin's well crafted image, both in the media and in his own mind, as an Untouchable strong man.

My point is the sharks are circling and measures like this will only increase his danger, fortunately.

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/DrazaM33/status/1572610380689448964

Imagining being enough of a stable genius to actually believe this

[Middle-aged Europe]

Every Azovstal defender has been freed. In exchange Russia gets...  Medvedchuk? Putin is completely delusional.
https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1572696559166566402

Eww. Just to be clear, while I stand with the Ukrainians, the disgusting azov soldiers are NOT hero’s in the slightest. They should’ve been left to die in captivity imo.

Not every Azov member is a Nazi, although some undoubtedly are. It is a specific problem with this regiment, although the overall situation had also improved in recent years. The situation is complex and it is probably difficult to separate the "bad" apples from the good ones.

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/UKR_Report/status/1572636848458964992

It appears our worst resident troll has officially taking the mask off being a rusbot

[Badger]

Even mass conscription won't save the Russian war effort in Ukraine:

https://twitter.com/daxe/status/1572343200534171648

Mobilization could make military service compulsory for millions of Russians who, at present, easily can avoid the armed forces’ twice-a-year draft. In theory, mobilization could swell the Russian army’s ranks by millions.

In practice, those throngs of new troops would lack instructors to train them, units to absorb them, commanders to lead them, noncommissioned officers to mentor them and equipment to give them useful combat power.

The main effects of mobilization would be to clog up the army’s fragile home garrisons, undermine the legitimacy of Putin and his regime, deplete the federal treasury and—in the best case—feed into Ukraine a lot of untrained, under-equipped and poorly led men who, more likely that not, quickly would surrender, desert or die.

"We have reserves" has basically been the Russian military motto for as long as Russia has existed, and if we've reached the point where that is no longer viable, well, that definitely changes what kind of military power they can be.

Which shows another thing, its easier to "support" the war when it won't be you or those close to you fighting it. Full mobilisation has the potential, at least, to be a fiasco.

I'm going to be honest here: what Industrial war has Russia won principally through her larger numbers, with the exception of WWII? All other examples seem to point to losses that eventually force the regime to bend or break because they poured in so many men and made the politics of the war unavoidable. Crimea, Manchuria, WWI, Finland, Afghanistan/(Chernobyl?)...the list isn't that favorable. Because the masses don't like being thrown into the meat grinder with little support.

WWII of course looms large in the state mythology, which is why everything about it looms large in everyone's mind. But in many ways it is the exception rather than the rule.

The war against napoleon, Plus their War under Catherine the Great against the Turks. But your point is well taken.

I didn't think those qualified as Industrial wars - certainly modern ones though. The recognizable features of Industrial warfare such as the military-industrial complex, precision weaponry (earliest being the Minié Rifle), limited or no use of Horses, specialty/preserved rations (canning), and the stable militarized front rather than armies as single masses that seek conflict with each other. Arguably they fit into the period where warfare became modern but not yet Industrial, and therefore mass numbers greatly increased odds of victory (seen by the levee en masse) since you could bring a heavier volley of fire and a wider line to outmaneuver the foe.

Perhaps. It starts to get a little blurred by the Napoleonic era, those still probably in the category you're describing.

Nevertheless, in terms of Russian historical self image and mindset, those Wars still fit in that category of overwhelming the foe with numerical superiority and Relentless waves of bodies

[Badger]

A lot of revision and mindless "ASIATIC HORDES BEING SENT TO THE SLAUGHTER" which was a common German trope during WWII.

Ukraine has been in mobilization since the conflict started, and it has shown to be hugely effective. There has been no indication Russia can't do this yet, so spare your conclusion for the war already.

lol - Russia has been unable to properly supply or equip their smaller "professional force", so it stands to reason that they will not be able to supply or equip conscripts.

As for your Ukraine comment, it should be evident why a nation mobilizing for national defense would tend to be much more effective than a nation mobilizing for a foreign adventure.

Again, no basis for this. The small force as you put it, as far as I can see, has maintained a stable frontline from the edge of the Oskil river to the right bank of the Dniepr for half a year now, against a fully wartime Ukraine.. with the expectation of Izium, and guess what, it's a war, there is a different outcome in every front - alas the collapse of Popasna/Lysychansk & Severodonetsk. They are still  conducting offensive operations in Bakhmut and around Donetsk.

Individual videos of HIMARS strikes and a couple of dead RU soldiers don't show the larger picture.

You say you want Ukraine defended but dude with Russian propaganda because the West isn’t doing enough? What is enough?

Should have guaranteed NATO membership from the beginning instead of constantly dangling it in front their face & pussyfooting.

hell ya if they had been admitted to NATO a while ago the war would already be over, Putin would be gone, and Russia would be liberated, it would be badass

If you crane had been a member of nato, Russia would have never invaded.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

Every Azovstal defender has been freed. In exchange Russia gets...  Medvedchuk? Putin is completely delusional.
https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1572696559166566402

Eww. Just to be clear, while I stand with the Ukrainians, the disgusting azov soldiers are NOT hero’s in the slightest. They should’ve been left to die in captivity imo.

Not every Azov member is a Nazi, although some undoubtedly are. It is a specific problem with this regiment, although the overall situation had also improved in recent years. The situation is complex and it is probably difficult to separate the "bad" apples from the good ones.

The leaders of Azov are literally ALL members of a far-right ‘third position’ ie fascist party. Likewise, Azov itself was founded out of the ‘ultra’ football hooliganism movement which /IS/ heavily influenced by far-right and fascists ideologies as well. Maybe there are members who claim otherwise but the history and ethos of Azovstal is crystal clear... And I have zero sympathy for any members of a fascist organization. Let them rot.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Mobilisation without refresher training for <30s, in at least some oblasts. Worse than what the mobilised LDPR gangs get.

https://www.twitter.com/PjotrSauer/status/1572664720901152773

This is how you generate bodies.

Meat shields

[NOVA Green]

How likely are we to see some “fragging” like what happened to American officers in Vietnam? I mean, an unpopular war with unwilling participants might lend themselves to that.

Also, do we have any idea how many Russians have left the country so far? While some earlier posters have mentioned effects on the Russian economy, you’d need a high number of people leaving. Hundreds of thousands would have to leave. Is there a way we could find that information out?

(Bolded section for response)

Believe there were multiple incidents of that very early in the war posted way upthread.

I seem to recall a Lt Colonel type guy got run over by a tank or something like that back in March '22 (or around that time).

Too lazy to search through the thread at this point, but pretty sure a few other reg posters on this thread either posted it or will recall the incident in question.

[Splash]

Take this for what it's worth (not much). But it's still interesting that the North Koreans apparently felt the need to come out and say this, regardless of the veracity.

https://twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1572696716301811712

[NOVA Green]

Every Azovstal defender has been freed. In exchange Russia gets...  Medvedchuk? Putin is completely delusional.
https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1572696559166566402

Eww. Just to be clear, while I stand with the Ukrainians, the disgusting azov soldiers are NOT hero’s in the slightest. They should’ve been left to die in captivity imo.

Not every Azov member is a Nazi, although some undoubtedly are. It is a specific problem with this regiment, although the overall situation had also improved in recent years. The situation is complex and it is probably difficult to separate the "bad" apples from the good ones.

Seem to recall there was a bit of a Neo-Nazi purge that happened some years back, and I say that as an individual who broadly supports the Antifa movement and participated in street demos some years back against the KKK as well as against reconstituted Neo-Nazi political formations in East Berlin in the 1990s.

One might well make a strong argument that the current Azov Battalion membership has a relatively small % of literal White Supremacists and Neo-Nazis.

Ukrainian Nationalists Azov Battalion membership currently does not equate with literal Neo-Nazis, Anti-Semites, and White Supremacist political formations, but still let's put it this way, they definitely need to be continuously monitored to prevent the emergence or propagation of hateful doctrines, especially any "internationalists" who choose to enlist to fight against the Russians.

[Gass3268]

https://twitter.com/evangershkovich/status/1572688378604421120?s=20&t=6x86qC...

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

https://twitter.com/evangershkovich/status/1572688378604421120?s=20&t=6x86qC...

Watch as they frag their commanding officers and surrender immediately once deployed.

[Badger]

https://twitter.com/evangershkovich/status/1572688378604421120?s=20&t=6x86qC...

How well does Russia think this is going to turn out?

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

You would really have to wonder how this going to further ruin the Russian economy with so many people leaving.

There have already been 3.8 million Russians who have fled the country since the war started, even before mobilization was announced. The new panic about mobilization could lead to another 1 million Russians leaving.

After the fall of the USSR and the economic collapse, around 2 million Russians left the country.

[Ⓐnarchy in the ☭☭☭P!]

On the one hand, even partial mobilization is enough to raise the stakes to the point where Putin's regime could plausibly be threatened. If the Ukrainians continue to make gains then the backlash could be serious, though up to this point Putin has demonstrated far more fear of some sort of ultranationalist coup for backing down than of any kind of anti-war uprising.

On the other, I think a lot of people are underestimating the potential difference it could provide in the war. For one thing, most of those called up are unlikely to be just thrown into combat as cannon fodder but to fill either logistical or specialist roles that were previously lacking. In theory, a Russian BTG is supposed to have two such conscripts for each fighting professional soldier but up to this point they've had to pull troops and leave equipment aside to supplement the lack of logistical support. If Russian supply issues are global then partial mobilization won't help but if they're local then it will significantly strengthen their ability to keep heavy pressured forces armed and loaded despite Ukrainian pressure. They also indirectly increase the number of experienced fighters on the Russian side by freeing up those who were partially or fully relegated to logistical work.

A lack of specialists also means that the Russians haven't necessarily been able to fully utilize all of their equipment. The clause against refuseniks in particular could improve their capacity in the use of jets, artillery and tanks that were previously lying idle at garrison bases as well as their capacity to repair and refit damaged equipment.

Finally, partial mobilization basically eliminates the significant manpower advantage the Ukrainians have had up to this point. Arguably the biggest reason they were able to make such significant gains in Izyum is because Russian forces were stretched too thin to simultaneously hold Kherson and Izyum while attacking Bakhmut head on. The forces there were composed of geriatric DPR conscripts with DP-28s backed up by riot cops with rifles. Without a 2-1 advantage in troops the Ukrainians will have to punch through prepared Russian forces, a much tougher proposition judging by their progress in Kherson.

Zelensky has, optimistically, a month to pull off another significant victory before the weather makes further advances impossible. By the time winter has frozen the ground to the point where tanks are useable he'll have to contend with a Russian force of equal or greater size compared to his own and he'll have a difficult time making further gains short of Russia literally running out of ammo or a WW1 style collapse in morale. Even without the threat of nuclear weapons this could easily become a long, bloody, grinding war.

[NOVA Green]

WaPo shares a few anecdotes regarding Russian Mobilization drive:

Within hours of President Vladimir Putin’s speech declaring a partial military mobilization on Wednesday, men all over Russia — including some who had tried for months to ignore the messy war in Ukraine — suddenly found their lives thrown into chaos as they were summoned to duty.

The men, mostly reservists under 35 who served in the army and have junior military ranks, were handed written notices in their offices or at their homes. In some cases, they had their identity documents checked on the street and were told to appear for a health check. Others got orders by telephone.

“They’ve been chasing me since February, trying to offer me a contract,” one Moscow resident, who served in the army and has prior combat experience, said in an interview.

The man, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to speak freely, said that unlike others who had received written summonses, he had received a personal call from the military enlistment office, which has had his number on hand for months. “I was ordered to undergo a [health] commission tomorrow morning,” he told The Washington Post. “So, I doubt I will be spared now.”

Relatively contained but significant protests erupted not only in the big cities of Moscow and St. Petersburg, but also in Novosibirsk in remote Siberia. By Wednesday evening, more than 1,000 people had been arrested across the country, according to OVD-Info, an independent group monitoring protest activity in Russia — a remarkable number given that criticism of the war is potentially punishable by long prison sentences.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/09/21/putin-russia-mobilization-public-protest/

Apologies in advance for anybody who does not like musical interludes, but I'll toss in a couple UK relatively topical tunes for anybody interested.

Subhumans: Subvert City

Suicidal Tendencies: Join The Army (Live in Madrid 1993)

The Exploited: Exploited Barmy Army

Meanwhile legendary Russian Hip-Hop artist who sought political asylum in Germany singing a few Rhymes and Rhymes while he pumps massive beats against War in Ukraine...

Oxxxymiron: RUSSIANS AGAINST WAR (Berlin, Germany)

RUSSIAN REBELION AGAINST THE FAKE WAR WILL CONTINUE TO GROW...

Military conscription offices likely to be mysteriously burnt down in middle of night with Molotovs...

Sabotage in military mfg plants and infrastructure likely to continue...

This war is a disaster for mother Russia, and mass mobilization might be the final straw as unrest will likely continue to spread as communications regarding Russian KIA and WIA continue to be distributed through Social Media, in what has historically been considered a pillar of every regime (Russian Military).