Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1510711478764163081

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/Telegraph/status/1510698650367938560

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://mobile.twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1510695199932284928

[pppolitics]

https://mobile.twitter.com/phildstewart/status/1510695199932284928

Can't Russia be removed from the UN Security Council?

Since the Soviet Union doesn't exist anymore, what makes Russia entitled to that seat?

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/arnaudcomte/status/1510693024837341189

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/MaxBoot/status/1510691611608588288

[Torie]

Comparisons with Nazi Germany are moot because the Russian state does not have the capacity to conquer all of Europe, and, right now, is getting somewhat shockingly clobbered about only a hundred miles from its own borders. In any event, as already noted, there are other historical analogies that are significantly more appropriate. It is a shame that people are not taught about Katyn in most Western education systems, but perhaps they will now.

My Mommy taught me about that happened in that particular dark forest while breast feeding me. It was "a thing" back when computers were adding machines.

I wonder how much of the Russian troops waging war on civilians is because they are just out of control (loot, rape and kill just for the Adrenalin rush), and how much is because Putin ordered it.

During an "operational pause," where the fighting is reduced in intensity, which side benefits more from the intermission to resupply and refit?

What I find most  irritating is the asymmetry where Russia can lob missiles into Ukraine blowing up infrastructure and homes and people without much risk as if the missiles were asteroids from outer space. Somehow the scales need to get more balanced there. In a long war, Russia can just keep destroying x buildings per day, without putting many of their own assets at risk. It was no an accident, that spirits outside the Putin sphere soared when that tank farm in Russia was hit. At last!

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/DarthPutinKGB/status/1510598458876518400

[compucomp]

Viktor Orban, having won a landslide victory, says that Zelensky was an "opponent" he defeated in his campaign. He now has a huge mandate of the Hungarian people behind him. How long can the EU "united front" last? Don't they need unanimous consent to do anything?

Hungary's authoritarian leader and longtime Russian ally, Viktor Orban, has declared victory in the country's parliamentary elections, clinching a fourth consecutive term in power.

Orban's Fidesz party had a commanding lead with 71% of the votes counted, Hungary's national elections board said on Sunday evening.

The election campaign was dominated by Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, which put Orban's lengthy association with Russian President Vladimir Putin under scrutiny. In his victory speech, Orban called Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky one of the "opponents" he had to overcome during the campaign.

Hungary is heavily reliant on Russian energy and Orban has dodged opportunities to condemn Putin's assault on its neighboring state, complicating the EU's efforts to present a united front against him.

[fluffypanther19]

im a little late but its good to hear from you Andriy.

god bless you and glory to ukraine

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Reposting from elsewhere: the anti-'provocation' argument against intervention is popular because it's an easy way to weasel out of thinking too hard about our moral responsibility, not because it makes sense. It is the same argument which has been used since 2008 as an excuse to do nothing to deter Russia, and has failed every time to avoid '''provoking''' escalation from the Russian side.

Something I think has been glossed over in nuanceless 'intervention = nuclear WW3' narrative which is going around everywhere (which the Russian government loves and thanks you for, by the way) is that a NFZ (or, to take a less cliche option, a 'safe zone' enforced by Polish or Romanian troops) does NOT require shooting down Russian planes or targeting Russian SAM sites in Russia or Belarus proper. It requires it if and only if the Russian government makes the decision to contest the NFZ.

This is a functionally a similar move to the Berlin Airlift or the Cuban quarantine - it places the Russians in the position to have to choose to directly attack NATO forces. If anything, this would be a more difficult decision for them to make than those previous cases because of NATO's much greater conventional superiority and because the Russian air force is very explicitly not welcome by Ukraine's legitimate government.

The 'steel man' version of the belief that Putin would take the plunge on this is: Putin and his clique's primary goal is to remain in power, not to ensure the Russian state's best interests (true). Losing the war in Ukraine would weaken his grip on power (probably true to some degree). Therefore, winning the war in Ukraine is an existential question for him, if not for the Russian state. It is therefore plausible that he would use nuclear weapons to avoid losing.

Here is the uncomfortable problem with this argument which I think a lot of people making it want to ignore: the West has 0 control over whether World War III begins or not, or whether the Russian government uses nuclear weapons or not, or what Putin and people like him consider 'existential'. The end state of this argument is to continue rolling over every time a nuclear dictator takes a plunge like this so he won't have to take an L in front of his people. After all, if Ukraine isn't worth risking nuclear war, why would Estonia be? Or West Germany? Or France?

Maybe you think in some mathematical sense this is the best way to ensure the survival of the human race across the next few millennia of nuclear crises. Given it encourages future aggression, I think this is a naive view. Reducing the percent risk of war in each crisis doesn't help if at the same time it increases the likelihood of a crisis happening. The only way to really reduce the risk is to stop dictators from rolling the dice through reliably strong deterrence every time crises do arise.

In any case, it's no way to live.

This is cute, but it assumes the operators of nuclear weapons are and will remain rational actors with perfect communication. States may be, but people - not constructs - cause nuclear holocausts. Look at the Cuban missile crisis - US ships tried to signal with fake depth charges that a Soviet submarine could surface, but the operators thought they were real depth charges. Days spent going mad underwater almost led to a nuclear launch, and once that had happened, hysteria - and with it, the risk of a world war - would have spiked. IMO it still wouldn't have happened, but the chance was too high to afford.

Nevertheless, your last line makes an unfortunate amount of sense. If the nuclear deterrent is repeatedly abused, there will be a renewed push to develop defences against nuclear weapons (which, in turn, encourages the early use of nuclear weapons).

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Viktor Orban, having won a landslide victory, says that Zelensky was an "opponent" he defeated in his campaign. He now has a huge mandate of the Hungarian people behind him. How long can the EU "united front" last? Don't they need unanimous consent to do anything?

Hungary's authoritarian leader and longtime Russian ally, Viktor Orban, has declared victory in the country's parliamentary elections, clinching a fourth consecutive term in power.

Orban's Fidesz party had a commanding lead with 71% of the votes counted, Hungary's national elections board said on Sunday evening.

The election campaign was dominated by Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, which put Orban's lengthy association with Russian President Vladimir Putin under scrutiny. In his victory speech, Orban called Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky one of the "opponents" he had to overcome during the campaign.

Hungary is heavily reliant on Russian energy and Orban has dodged opportunities to condemn Putin's assault on its neighboring state, complicating the EU's efforts to present a united front against him.

They don't need a unanimous mandate to do everything, Orban has been re-elected in an increasingly authoritarian regime, and internationally, he has been successfully pressured into not vetoing EU-wide measures before even where he has that power. He talks a big game about vetoing a gas ban, but there he has had the support of states like Germany - when and if they move, it's an open question as to whether he wouldn't get pushed.

If you actually followed developments in the EU on this, you'd know the front has become more united (however weak its overall stance), with the rest of the Visegrad Group finally distancing itself from Hungary after long-running tensions between the entire group and the rest of the EU.

[Person Man]

Viktor Orban, having won a landslide victory, says that Zelensky was an "opponent" he defeated in his campaign. He now has a huge mandate of the Hungarian people behind him. How long can the EU "united front" last? Don't they need unanimous consent to do anything?

Hungary's authoritarian leader and longtime Russian ally, Viktor Orban, has declared victory in the country's parliamentary elections, clinching a fourth consecutive term in power.

Orban's Fidesz party had a commanding lead with 71% of the votes counted, Hungary's national elections board said on Sunday evening.

The election campaign was dominated by Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, which put Orban's lengthy association with Russian President Vladimir Putin under scrutiny. In his victory speech, Orban called Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky one of the "opponents" he had to overcome during the campaign.

Hungary is heavily reliant on Russian energy and Orban has dodged opportunities to condemn Putin's assault on its neighboring state, complicating the EU's efforts to present a united front against him.

They don't need a unanimous mandate to do everything, Orban has been re-elected in an increasingly authoritarian regime, and internationally, he has been successfully pressured into not vetoing EU-wide measures before even where he has that power. He talks a big game about vetoing a gas ban, but there he has had the support of states like Germany - when and if they move, it's an open question as to whether he wouldn't get pushed.

If you actually followed developments in the EU on this, you'd know the front has become more united (however weak its overall stance), with the rest of the Visegrad Group finally distancing itself from Hungary after long-running tensions between the entire group and the rest of the EU.

It’s really going to suck to be a landlocked country that is alienated from its neighbors.

[NOVA Green]

More corroborating evidence of Russian war crimes in Bucha, this from Serhiy Kaplishny a coroner in Bucha per the NYT.

Serhiy Kaplishny is a coroner in Bucha who worked there from Feb. 24, the day of the invasion, until March 10, and then returned on Saturday. He said his team had collected more than 100 bodies during and after the fighting and the Russian occupation.

Mr. Kaplishny said that before he left Bucha — as back-and-forth fighting raged and then the Russian army established control — he buried 57 bodies in a cemetery, 15 of whom had died of natural causes. The rest died from gunshot wounds, including point-blank shots in executions, or from shrapnel. Three of these bodies were Ukrainian soldiers, he said.

On Sunday, after he had returned to the town, he said he picked up about 30 bodies in a white van. Thirteen of them were men whose hands were tied and had been shot execution-style in the head. He said he did not know the circumstances of their deaths but believed, based on their apparently recent deaths, that they were prisoners killed before the Russian army withdrew.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/04/03/world/ukraine-russia-war/in-bucha-a-mass-grave-filled-up-with-dozens-of-bodies-after-the-morgue-became-intolerable

[urutzizu]

Viktor Orban, having won a landslide victory, says that Zelensky was an "opponent" he defeated in his campaign. He now has a huge mandate of the Hungarian people behind him. How long can the EU "united front" last? Don't they need unanimous consent to do anything?

Hungary's authoritarian leader and longtime Russian ally, Viktor Orban, has declared victory in the country's parliamentary elections, clinching a fourth consecutive term in power.

Orban's Fidesz party had a commanding lead with 71% of the votes counted, Hungary's national elections board said on Sunday evening.

The election campaign was dominated by Moscow's invasion of Ukraine, which put Orban's lengthy association with Russian President Vladimir Putin under scrutiny. In his victory speech, Orban called Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelensky one of the "opponents" he had to overcome during the campaign.

Hungary is heavily reliant on Russian energy and Orban has dodged opportunities to condemn Putin's assault on its neighboring state, complicating the EU's efforts to present a united front against him.

They don't need a unanimous mandate to do everything, Orban has been re-elected in an increasingly authoritarian regime, and internationally, he has been successfully pressured into not vetoing EU-wide measures before even where he has that power. He talks a big game about vetoing a gas ban, but there he has had the support of states like Germany - when and if they move, it's an open question as to whether he wouldn't get pushed.

If you actually followed developments in the EU on this, you'd know the front has become more united (however weak its overall stance), with the rest of the Visegrad Group finally distancing itself from Hungary after long-running tensions between the entire group and the rest of the EU.

In practice, most EU decisions are in fact unanimous but that's more the result of a "political culture" where you don't vote "no" if there's no actual chance of defeating the proposal in the first place. In other words, Orban could have voted against all the sanctions of the recent past, but it wouldn't have changed the end result, except that it would have made him look stupid had his country been the sole dissenting voice.

No, Sanctions do indeed have to be unanimous. EU’s Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) is one area which doesn't have QMV (sadly). Theoretically Hungary could veto, and the sanctions would be defeated. The reason they don't is because, EU member states are very reluctant to use the Veto unilaterally, because you will then very quickly be at the receiving end of that Veto, which could become very painful for Hungary in particular when it comes to funding.

[Frodo]

With their elections done and over with, Hungary and Serbia are now securely in Putin's corner:

Pro-Putin Leaders in Hungary and Serbia Set to Win Re-election
Viktor Orban declared victory, and Serbia’s Aleksandar Vucic seemed likely to emerge on top. Both pledged to stay out of Russia’s war in Ukraine.

With more than 60 percent of the votes counted in Hungary, preliminary results indicated that Viktor Orban, Hungary’s prime minister since 2010, and already Europe’s longest serving leader, had won a fourth consecutive term despite accusations by the opposition that he has enabled Russia’s military onslaught by cozying up for years to President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia.

“We won a victory so big that you can perhaps see it from the moon, and certainly from Brussels,” Mr. Orban told a jubilant crowd of supporters late Sunday, taking a dig at the European Union, which he has long accused of pushing L.G.B.T.Q. and migrant rights in defiance of the democratic will of Hungarian voters.

The preliminary results dashed the hopes of Mr. Orban’s political foes that an unusually united opposition camp could break his ruling Fidesz party’s increasingly authoritarian grip on the Central European nation next to Ukraine.

President Aleksandar Vucic of Serbia, also Moscow-friendly, has governed Serbia since 2012, and was expected to win re-election after rallying his nationalist and pro-Russian base by refusing to join the European Union in imposing sanctions on Russia. Serbia hopes to become a member of the European bloc, but its application has stalled.

An unusually high turnout in Serbia of nearly 60 percent forced officials to keep polling stations open late into the evening in some areas. Amid complaints of foul play by the opposition, the central election commission in Belgrade, the capital, said it would not issue results until Monday morning.

But exit polls indicated that Mr. Vucic would win a new term as president and that his Serbian Progressive Party would retain its hold on Parliament, albeit with a reduced majority. The opposition said it had won control of the municipal government in Belgrade.

[HillGoose]

With their elections done and over with, Hungary and Serbia are now securely in Putin's corner:

Pro-Putin Leaders in Hungary and Serbia Set to Win Re-election
Viktor Orban declared victory, and Serbia’s Aleksandar Vucic seemed likely to emerge on top. Both pledged to stay out of Russia’s war in Ukraine.

With more than 60 percent of the votes counted in Hungary, preliminary results indicated that Viktor Orban, Hungary’s prime minister since 2010, and already Europe’s longest serving leader, had won a fourth consecutive term despite accusations by the opposition that he has enabled Russia’s military onslaught by cozying up for years to President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia.

(...) The preliminary results dashed the hopes of Mr. Orban’s political foes that an unusually united opposition camp could break his ruling Fidesz party’s increasingly authoritarian grip on the Central European nation next to Ukraine.

President Aleksandar Vucic of Serbia, also Moscow-friendly, has governed Serbia since 2012, and was expected to win re-election after rallying his nationalist and pro-Russian base by refusing to join the European Union in imposing sanctions on Russia. Serbia hopes to become a member of the European bloc, but its application has stalled.

An unusually high turnout in Serbia of nearly 60 percent forced officials to keep polling stations open late into the evening in some areas. Amid complaints of foul play by the opposition, the central election commission in Belgrade, the capital, said it would not issue results until Monday morning.

But exit polls indicated that Mr. Vucic would win a new term as president and that his Serbian Progressive Party would retain its hold on Parliament, albeit with a reduced majority. The opposition said it had won control of the municipal government in Belgrade.

gross nasty

[It’s so Joever]

Hungarians today were disgusting in what they overwhelmingly voted for even though they see full well what is happening in Ukraine and it’s clear they are not a legitimate country to be taken seriously ever again. I guess we need a reverse 1956!!!

[Omega21]

With their elections done and over with, Hungary and Serbia are now securely in Putin's corner:

Pro-Putin Leaders in Hungary and Serbia Set to Win Re-election
Viktor Orban declared victory, and Serbia’s Aleksandar Vucic seemed likely to emerge on top. Both pledged to stay out of Russia’s war in Ukraine.

With more than 60 percent of the votes counted in Hungary, preliminary results indicated that Viktor Orban, Hungary’s prime minister since 2010, and already Europe’s longest serving leader, had won a fourth consecutive term despite accusations by the opposition that he has enabled Russia’s military onslaught by cozying up for years to President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia.

“We won a victory so big that you can perhaps see it from the moon, and certainly from Brussels,” Mr. Orban told a jubilant crowd of supporters late Sunday, taking a dig at the European Union, which he has long accused of pushing L.G.B.T.Q. and migrant rights in defiance of the democratic will of Hungarian voters.

The preliminary results dashed the hopes of Mr. Orban’s political foes that an unusually united opposition camp could break his ruling Fidesz party’s increasingly authoritarian grip on the Central European nation next to Ukraine.

President Aleksandar Vucic of Serbia, also Moscow-friendly, has governed Serbia since 2012, and was expected to win re-election after rallying his nationalist and pro-Russian base by refusing to join the European Union in imposing sanctions on Russia. Serbia hopes to become a member of the European bloc, but its application has stalled.

An unusually high turnout in Serbia of nearly 60 percent forced officials to keep polling stations open late into the evening in some areas. Amid complaints of foul play by the opposition, the central election commission in Belgrade, the capital, said it would not issue results until Monday morning.

But exit polls indicated that Mr. Vucic would win a new term as president and that his Serbian Progressive Party would retain its hold on Parliament, albeit with a reduced majority. The opposition said it had won control of the municipal government in Belgrade.

Official plea for anyone to list 1 single action of the Hungarian Govt after Feb 24 that was pro Russian.

I can only think of the following:

Anti-Russia/Pro-Ukraine
1. Hungary condemns Russia
2. Hungary imposes all EU sanctions on Russia
3. Hungary accepts all fleeing Ukrainians

Neutral
1. Hungary does not wish to facilitate transfer of lethal equipment to Ukraine directly

Pro-Russia

Please add here

With my list, I am honestly having trouble connecting the dots on how Hungary is supposedly firmly on Russia's side.

Not wishing to send weapons does not equal PRO PUTIN.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Hungarians today were disgusting in what they overwhelmingly voted for even though they see full well what is happening in Ukraine and it’s clear they are not a legitimate country to be taken seriously ever again. I guess we need a reverse 1956!!!

Many of them actually didn't see it, because they're consuming nothing but Orban propaganda.

But yeah, still. So sad to see a country in the EU prove so blatantly that they don't deserve it, while on the outside we have a country fighting to the death for European values.

[pppolitics]

It's a good thing compucomp is here because he can give us a look at what the latest CCP talking point is.

[NOVA Green]

Meanwhile, anybody been wondering about what happened to the disgraced Russian oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky?

Most likely not, considering the average age of the typical Atlas poster, but anyways...

Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the self-exiled Russian oligarch and vocal Kremlin opponent, has called on Russian billionaires and officials who have fled Russia to publicly denounce President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine as criminal.

“Public figures cannot leave quietly and then sit quietly. If you have left, then you should publicly dissociate yourself or we should be forced to suspect that you are acting on [the Kremlin’s] behalf,” Khodorkovsky said in an interview last week in his London office. “You should step up to the microphone and say that Putin is a war criminal and that what he is doing is a crime, that the war against Ukraine is a crime. Say this, and then we’ll understand that Putin doesn’t have a hold over you.”

Khodorkovsky — who was Russia’s richest man before he was arrested in 2003 and imprisoned for 10 years while his Yukos oil company was taken over by the Russian state — was referring in particular to the high-profile Russian oligarchs Mikhail Fridman and Pyotr Aven of Alfa Group. They were once his comrades among Russia’s seven original oligarchs of the 1990s, who then controlled much of the country’s economy. Fridman and Aven left Russia in the immediate aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine only to be put under sanctions by Britain and the European Union over alleged close ties to the Putin regime.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/03/russia-oligarchs-khodorkovsky-fridman-aven/

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

It's a good thing compucomp is here because he can give us a look at what the latest CCP talking point is.

He can't. He wants the CCP to be more pro-Putin than it actually is to own the "Global North", because the Global South is supposed to be pleased about a country being violently colonised by a larger, richer powerhouse. There's definitely no parallels between Russia and other failing Western powers screwing up the invasion and occupation of various poorer and smaller countries.

[GoTfan]

Meanwhile, anybody been wondering about what happened to the disgraced Russian oligarch Mikhail Khodorkovsky?

Most likely not, considering the average age of the typical Atlas poster, but anyways...

Mikhail Khodorkovsky, the self-exiled Russian oligarch and vocal Kremlin opponent, has called on Russian billionaires and officials who have fled Russia to publicly denounce President Vladimir Putin’s war in Ukraine as criminal.

“Public figures cannot leave quietly and then sit quietly. If you have left, then you should publicly dissociate yourself or we should be forced to suspect that you are acting on [the Kremlin’s] behalf,” Khodorkovsky said in an interview last week in his London office. “You should step up to the microphone and say that Putin is a war criminal and that what he is doing is a crime, that the war against Ukraine is a crime. Say this, and then we’ll understand that Putin doesn’t have a hold over you.”

Khodorkovsky — who was Russia’s richest man before he was arrested in 2003 and imprisoned for 10 years while his Yukos oil company was taken over by the Russian state — was referring in particular to the high-profile Russian oligarchs Mikhail Fridman and Pyotr Aven of Alfa Group. They were once his comrades among Russia’s seven original oligarchs of the 1990s, who then controlled much of the country’s economy. Fridman and Aven left Russia in the immediate aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine only to be put under sanctions by Britain and the European Union over alleged close ties to the Putin regime.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/04/03/russia-oligarchs-khodorkovsky-fridman-aven/

To be honest, I don't think the oligarchs have as much influence as people believe.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

If the goal is to actively cut the supply line, I still think a Zaporizhzhia->Vasylivka->Melitpol offensive would be better. Even then taking Melitopol would be extremely difficult and could result in a humiliating withdrawal.

(Or just do a #bigbrain move and do a landing from Nikopol to Enerhodar across the Dnieper, totally)

It’s heartening to see that Atlas is in the presence of a genius of military tactics.

What can I say, I have the biggest brain tactics.

This sounded like an unlikely armchair general proposition, but something approaching it seems to have happened. The original tweet is part of a thread with pictures from an attack allegedly carried out on the other side of the river by units who crossed using these boats:

https://twitter.com/CovertShores/status/1510690861486641156
The Ukrainian Navy can't really stand up to the Russian one at sea, but asymmetric/convoy harassing moves like this could be their next best bet. I'm a little bit surprised they still have this capability, but even more that they were somehow able to talk multiple soldiers into manning these tiny boats.