Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/guardian/status/1510677718047805447

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/avalaina/status/1510680694061735945

[pppolitics]

Here comes BoJo

https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1510677595804872709

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

I wish all the foreign chickenhawks cheering and hoping for further escalation in Ukraine (on both sides) get transported to the frontlines in the uniform of their choice. Accusing those of us who support harsh sanctions against Russia and continued arming of Ukraine of either going along with a hot war or essentially endorsing war crimes is straight out of the Rumsfeld/Cheney neoconservative march to war and 'You're either with us, or you're a terrorist' playbook.

The goal here should be to get rid of Putin and try to establish a working democracy but all of that work has to be done by Russians, voluntarily. We can encourage them with sanctions and information warfare but unless you want to start a war that would essentially turn Ukraine into an inhospitable wasteland and assist Putin in snatching victory from the jaws of defeat then the most sensible thing to do is to maintain course.

This isn't 1939 and as horrific as Russia is for a multitude of reasons they are not Nazi Germany.

[pppolitics]

I wish all the foreign chickenhawks cheering and hoping for further escalation in Ukraine (on both sides) get transported to the frontlines in the uniform of their choice. Accusing those of us who support harsh sanctions against Russia and continued arming of Ukraine of either going along with a hot war or essentially endorsing war crimes is straight out of the Rumsfeld/Cheney neoconservative march to war and 'You're either with us, or you're a terrorist' playbook.

The goal here should be to get rid of Putin and try to establish a working democracy but all of that work has to be done by Russians, voluntarily. We can encourage them with sanctions and information warfare but unless you want to start a war that would essentially turn Ukraine into an inhospitable wasteland and assist Putin in snatching victory from the jaws of defeat then the most sensible thing to do is to maintain course.

This isn't 1939 and as horrific as Russia is for a multitude of reasons they are not Nazi Germany.

The Ukrainians can fight the Russians.

They don't need us to be there fighting for them.

What they need from us are war supplies: fighter aircrafts, surface to air missiles, etc.

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

I wish all the foreign chickenhawks cheering and hoping for further escalation in Ukraine (on both sides) get transported to the frontlines in the uniform of their choice. Accusing those of us who support harsh sanctions against Russia and continued arming of Ukraine of either going along with a hot war or essentially endorsing war crimes is straight out of the Rumsfeld/Cheney neoconservative march to war and 'You're either with us, or you're a terrorist' playbook.

The goal here should be to get rid of Putin and try to establish a working democracy but all of that work has to be done by Russians, voluntarily. We can encourage them with sanctions and information warfare but unless you want to start a war that would essentially turn Ukraine into an inhospitable wasteland and assist Putin in snatching victory from the jaws of defeat then the most sensible thing to do is to maintain course.

This isn't 1939 and as horrific as Russia is for a multitude of reasons they are not Nazi Germany.

The Ukrainians can fight the Russians.

They don't need us to be there fighting for them.

What they need from us are war supplies: fighter aircrafts, surface to air missiles, etc.

Sure, and I'm in favor of giving them pretty much anything they ask for to defend themselves. Hell, I think the EU needs to go even further and ban Russian gas imports. Economic pain is a small price to pay to punish horrific war crimes.

But the keyboard warriors calling for escalation with vapid allusions to Chamberlain and 1939 need  a reality check and a cold shower. Directly intervening would only allow Putin to paint this as the 'Russia v. the West' conflict he so desperately wants rather than a universally condemned and botched military excursion.

[OSR stands with Israel]

I wish all the foreign chickenhawks cheering and hoping for further escalation in Ukraine (on both sides) get transported to the frontlines in the uniform of their choice. Accusing those of us who support harsh sanctions against Russia and continued arming of Ukraine of either going along with a hot war or essentially endorsing war crimes is straight out of the Rumsfeld/Cheney neoconservative march to war and 'You're either with us, or you're a terrorist' playbook.

The goal here should be to get rid of Putin and try to establish a working democracy but all of that work has to be done by Russians, voluntarily. We can encourage them with sanctions and information warfare but unless you want to start a war that would essentially turn Ukraine into an inhospitable wasteland and assist Putin in snatching victory from the jaws of defeat then the most sensible thing to do is to maintain course.

This isn't 1939 and as horrific as Russia is for a multitude of reasons they are not Nazi Germany.

The Ukrainians can fight the Russians.

They don't need us to be there fighting for them.

What they need from us are war supplies: fighter aircrafts, surface to air missiles, etc.

Sure, and I'm in favor of giving them pretty much anything they ask for to defend themselves. Hell, I think the EU needs to go even further and ban Russian gas imports. Economic pain is a small price to pay to punish horrific war crimes.

But the keyboard warriors calling for escalation with vapid allusions to Churchill and 1939 need  a reality check and a cold shower. Directly intervening would only allow Putin to paint this as the 'Russia v. the West' conflict he so desperately wants rather than a universally condemned and botched military excursion.

Do you take back what you said about Iraq . Saying it was worse than anything Russia will do in Ukraine

[Splash]

I am not calling out anyone here specifically, but it takes a special kind of person to look at these horrific acts and directly or indirectly minimize them by saying something along the lines of "well, I count only 30 corpses from that one video" or "actually, this isn't as bad as [insert previous atrocity].

Instead of getting into a tit for tat about which massacre is/was worse, acknowledge the pain and suffering of the victims and allow the survivors agency to express their shock and anger without critiquing their understandable desire to place these horrors into perspective as they talk about them.  

[No War, but the War on Christmas]

I wish all the foreign chickenhawks cheering and hoping for further escalation in Ukraine (on both sides) get transported to the frontlines in the uniform of their choice. Accusing those of us who support harsh sanctions against Russia and continued arming of Ukraine of either going along with a hot war or essentially endorsing war crimes is straight out of the Rumsfeld/Cheney neoconservative march to war and 'You're either with us, or you're a terrorist' playbook.

The goal here should be to get rid of Putin and try to establish a working democracy but all of that work has to be done by Russians, voluntarily. We can encourage them with sanctions and information warfare but unless you want to start a war that would essentially turn Ukraine into an inhospitable wasteland and assist Putin in snatching victory from the jaws of defeat then the most sensible thing to do is to maintain course.

This isn't 1939 and as horrific as Russia is for a multitude of reasons they are not Nazi Germany.

The Ukrainians can fight the Russians.

They don't need us to be there fighting for them.

What they need from us are war supplies: fighter aircrafts, surface to air missiles, etc.

Sure, and I'm in favor of giving them pretty much anything they ask for to defend themselves. Hell, I think the EU needs to go even further and ban Russian gas imports. Economic pain is a small price to pay to punish horrific war crimes.

But the keyboard warriors calling for escalation with vapid allusions to Churchill and 1939 need  a reality check and a cold shower. Directly intervening would only allow Putin to paint this as the 'Russia v. the West' conflict he so desperately wants rather than a universally condemned and botched military excursion.

Do you take back what you said about Iraq . Saying it was worse than anything Russia will do in Ukraine

If I correctly remember the conversation you're talking about that was before Mariupol was leveled to the ground, Russia started shelling apartments, hospitals, civilian infrastructure, etc and I specifically prefaced that at the moment Iraq was worse, I did not say it was worse than 'anything Russia will do in Ukraine' ever.

The Iraq War given that it lasted over a decade and destabilized an entire region still had worse consequences overall. But yes, it should be obvious that Russian rules of war on the ground are worse than how the US military treated Iraqi civilians. And if this conflict continues on for much longer I fully believe it has the capacity to be an Iraq level catastrophe and possibly even worse in many ways.

[Storr]

https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1510645938045476873?s=20&t=T_rLUoZ-TPdQp...

https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1510679788545056785?s=20&t=T_rLUoZ-TPdQp...

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1510558905079848961
https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1510560136888299522
https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1510692059862036482

[afleitch]

This isn't 1939 and as horrific as Russia is for a multitude of reasons they are not Nazi Germany.

But what if it's 1933?

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/IAPonomarenko/status/1510593979678707714

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1510693449548324876

[OSR stands with Israel]

Keep in mind when ever people always make the point how a regime isnt the Nazis they fail to take into account that the Nazis wouldnt have become the Nazis if they were stopped in the in the late 1930s when the British/French had the ability to stop them.

If this was 1938-1939 I am sure there would be many posters who would say it would be crazy to compare the Nazis to Kaiser's Germany only to realize when it was too late(during the Fall of France) how big of a threat the Nazis really were and how evil they really were.

The lesson we learned from WW2 is that we should not wait for a regime to become the Nazis before taking action.

[Beet]

I’m very strongly anti-war, but seeing the pictures of civilians shot execution style with hands behind their backs and mass graves makes my blood boil. I can’t even imagine what Mariupol looks like. If they continue to find more and more scenes like this, then I would be in favor of sending NATO troops in to directly fight the Russians.

Would that escalate things immensely? Yes. Would it likely lead to a broader war with Russia? Yes. But I’m sorry, if more scenes like today come out as more towns are liberated, I think we have to acknowledge that Kremlin leadership needs to be eliminated from this earth. In the 21st century, having a nation such as Russia engage in acts of genocide and ethnic cleansing simply cannot be tolerated.

Posts like this are frightening.

The scenes that have come out in the last day or two are horrifying. When it comes to direct intervention on one side, this would be a mistake. The reality is that both sides are committing war crimes. There have been videos of Ukrainians tying civilians up to posts to be used as shields, horrible mistreatment of Russian POWs, and I'm sure more. It's a brutal, ugly war.

I truly believe that this is not what Putin or the Russian government wanted or expected. They were hoping for a 2014-style walk in the park. The reality is, even the more weapons like tanks and planes we provide to the Ukrainians, the more people will die and the more brutal it will be. But the worst thing we can do is allow an escalation spiral to happen. While that may be in the interests of Ukrainian fighters and the government there, the main effect would be to spread the pain being felt there much wider across Europe and potentially the U.S. People need to keep calm because frankly, in this situation everything is being done to manipulate people and push buttons.

Also, not everything is 1938-39. There are other dates important in history as well. Arguably 1914 was a bigger and more important year...

[Antonio the Sixth]

Keep in mind when ever people always make the point how a regime isnt the Nazis they fail to take into account that the Nazis wouldnt have become the Nazis if they were stopped in the in the late 1930s when the British/French had the ability to stop them.

If this was 1938-1939 I am sure there would be many posters who would say it would be crazy to compare the Nazis to Kaiser's Germany only to realize when it was too late(during the Fall of France) how big of a threat the Nazis really were and how evil they really were.

The lesson we learned from WW2 is that we should not wait for a regime to become the Nazis before taking action.

Most of the American intelligentsia (famously including the New York Times) and to a lesser extent the British and French throughout the 30s did in fact think that Nazis might be slightly unsavory characters but that they weren't as bad as their critics made them out to be and probably had some legitimate concerns, and that their critics were hand-wringing and being hyperbolic. Everything that's being said about Putin's Russia now.

[pppolitics]

What makes me particularly upset is the cowardice in refusing to give Ukraine fighter aircrafts.

What are we afraid of?

[pppolitics]

Our politicians are taking notice

https://twitter.com/SenatorHassan/status/1510679860104024073

[afleitch]

Keep in mind when ever people always make the point how a regime isnt the Nazis they fail to take into account that the Nazis wouldnt have become the Nazis if they were stopped in the in the late 1930s when the British/French had the ability to stop them.

If this was 1938-1939 I am sure there would be many posters who would say it would be crazy to compare the Nazis to Kaiser's Germany only to realize when it was too late(during the Fall of France) how big of a threat the Nazis really were and how evil they really were.

The lesson we learned from WW2 is that we should not wait for a regime to become the Nazis before taking action.

Most of the American intelligentsia (famously including the New York Times) and to a lesser extent the British and French throughout the 30s did in fact think that Nazis might be slightly unsavory characters but that they weren't as bad as their critics made them out to be and probably had some legitimate concerns, and that their critics were hand-wringing and being hyperbolic. Everything that's being said about Putin's Russia now.

Constant 'muh centrist' hand waiving of democratic backsliding this past decade has been one of the biggest catalysts in shifting my views on a lot of issues. And you're absolutely right it's been said and is still being said about Russia.

[It’s so Joever]

I hate to say it, but a decent number of Russians in Russia proper may well support this war even with knowing what is happening. Especially among the young, if they are able to use VPN to access things like Instagram, they obviously know about the war and either don’t care or support or themselves. (This does NOT apply to Russian diaspora who tend to be even more anti-Putin than even most Americans)

[lfromnj]

I hate to say it, but a decent number of Russians in Russia proper may well support this war even with knowing what is happening. Especially among the young, if they are able to use VPN to access things like Instagram, they obviously know about the war and either don’t care or support or themselves. (This does NOT apply to Russian diaspora who tend to be even more anti-Putin than even most Americans)

Can confirm, one of my friends is a Russian foreign student at my college. He called the Z movement retarded and the like and he has lost a few friends in the war but many still support it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Comparisons with Nazi Germany are moot because the Russian state does not have the capacity to conquer all of Europe, and, right now, is getting somewhat shockingly clobbered about only a hundred miles from its own borders. In any event, as already noted, there are other historical analogies that are significantly more appropriate. It is a shame that people are not taught about Katyn in most Western education systems, but perhaps they will now.

[lfromnj]

What makes me particularly upset is the cowardice in refusing to give Ukraine fighter aircrafts.

What are we afraid of?

Yeah the soviets more than multiple times not only sent jets but pilots as well in Vietnam and Korea.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Comparisons with Nazi Germany are moot because the Russian state does not have the capacity to conquer all of Europe, and, right now, is getting somewhat shockingly clobbered about only a hundred miles from its own borders. In any event, as already noted, there are other historical analogies that are significantly more appropriate. It is a shame that people are not taught about Katyn in most Western education systems, but perhaps they will now.

What annoys me about these arguments is that they basically boil down to saying that you can't compare anyone to Nazis unless they're identical to Nazis in every way. Naturally, since the world has changed considerably in 80 years, there will probably never be any political project that's identical to the Nazis in every way. But that doesn't mean meaningful parallels can't be drawn. The current situation with Ukraine bears striking resemblance with the early phases of Nazi Germany's expansion (Czekoslovakia is the natural comparison, although thankfully it is true that democratic leaders have reacted significantly better this time than they did in 1938), and I think we'd be deliberately obtuse to ignore it. That doesn't mean that we're headed for the same outcome as we were that time, obviously, but it should make us aware of a range of potential long-term implications that this scenario carries - as well as, to put it bluntly, the way history will look down on those who made excuses or preached neutrality.