Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Russia is getting their asses handled to them.

[Alben Barkley]

Russia is getting their asses handled to them.

Winter War 2?

Big difference between an army that has everything to lose and one that has nothing to gain, maybe that's what we're seeing here.

I'm also seeing anecdotal reports that young Russian soldiers in particular are laying down their arms in decent numbers, saying they don't want to kill or die for Putin. One idea may be for Western nations to offer amnesty and asylum to any Russian soldier who doesn't want to fight (many are drafted and don't wanna be there).

No morale, no economy, international pariah, military humiliations, unrest at home? If it all goes just right this may backfire way worse than Putin could ever have imagined. Fingers crossed...

[John Dule]

Russia is getting their asses handled to them.

Winter War 2?

Big difference between an army that has everything to lose and one that has nothing to gain, maybe that's what we're seeing here.

I'm also seeing anecdotal reports that young Russian soldiers in particular are laying down their arms in decent numbers, saying they don't want to kill or die for Putin. One idea may be for Western nations to offer amnesty and asylum to any Russian soldier who doesn't want to fight (many are drafted and don't wanna be there).

No morale, no economy, international pariah, military humiliations, unrest at home? If it all goes just right this may backfire way worse than Putin could ever have imagined. Fingers crossed...

I gave up on wishful thinking the day Sanchez was banned. Now I know the world is unjust.

[ProudModerate2]

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/1497039189740859419?s=20&t=WTegcTW...

Something was intercepted over Kyiv.

Wow.
That's a huge amount of chaff flare countermeasures, and yet the plane was still hit (you can see it going down in a big ball of flame). By the size of the flame, it may have been a huge air transport plane ... maybe trying to resupply the few forces still at the airport or possibly going to drop more troops in the area.  ? ?

[Storr]

Russia is getting their asses handled to them.

Winter War 2?

I'm also seeing anecdotal reports that young Russian soldiers in particular are laying down their arms in decent numbers, saying they don't want to kill or die for Putin.

No morale, no economy, international pariah, military humiliations, unrest at home? If it all goes just right this may backfire way worse than Putin could ever have imagined. Fingers crossed...

I wouldn't put too much stock in this being Winter War 2 . Simply, Russia has the capability to overpower Ukraine (just as it did in Finland). It's just a matter of getting the manpower to Ukraine (Russia is huge after all) and making the decision on just how "all in" the Russian military will go. For example, evidently Russia has not used much of its communication disruption capabilities so far (for whatever reason). What we have seen so far could also simply be the first wave of Russian forces. But at least Ukraine is not simply throwing in the towel, which I feel Putin had hoped.

[Person Man]

While i don't often agree with all pro-Ukraine statements, it's becoming clear to me who in this case is the agressor. Putin lives in a 10th world century ideal where he thinks Kiev belongs to Russia because it's where the Russian civilisation started 1000 years ago. What happened in the past, happened. I think it is time to move on. We live in the 21st century. If every country wants to take back what was once supposed to be theirs, you're gonna have a lot of wars, and Russia theirselves will have a lot of wars too, because Japan & Finland also have territories in Russia which was actually theirs.

I believe in diplomacy and in peace, but it is increasingly becoming clear Putin doesn't care for that at all, and that he also doesn't care about human suffering, as long they're no Russians. Putin is proving right now why NATO is needed. I wasn't supportive of NATO but Putin has proven that we need NATO after all, even today. I wasn't supportive of NATO but that certainly changed in the past weeks.

I believe in diplomacy and peace too, but diplomacy and peace after Georgia 2008 created this today. Diplomacy and peace after Crimea 2014 created this today. My complaint about Western civilization classical liberals (the old definition of liberal, not the American one) is they all believe in things like diplomacy, peace, and democracy, but don't you dare ask them to fight for and defend those things. They are soft people and soft people don't do well in a hard world.

One thing that should be taken from today by everyone is that the world never changes. There will always be assholes running countries, there will always be contests for power. You're a blind idiot to think that's all in the past and to think that defense expenditure is pointless. Just today, China sent 9 fighter jets into Taiwan airspace. Could they do a mission there shortly? Doubtful, but damn it'd be good timing with a distracted world, and there would go a lot of countries' considerable amounts of their semiconductor supply -the steel production of the 21st century.

We should try to do what we can to make the world a safer place.

[Obama-Biden Democrat]

There are reports that 5 Russian helicopters got shot down today

Remember what I said about slav squatters with Stingers?

This is like the Mujahideen in Soviet-Afghan war.

[Damocles]

This is like the Mujahideen in Soviet-Afghan war.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

Russia is getting their asses handled to them.

I wish I was this optimistic We are getting allot of Russians losing small unit actions, but they are, as best I can tell, still advancing. Overwhelming manpower and air superiority is hard to stop once it starts rolling.

[StateBoiler]

Russia is getting their asses handled to them.

I wish I was this optimistic We are getting allot of Russians losing small unit actions, but they are, as best I can tell, still advancing. Overwhelming manpower and air superiority is hard to stop once it starts rolling.

Guys. We're about 1 day into this conflict. It's early days. I remember the Georgia war. There were lots of people on message boards with reports of Russian ineptitude and Georgians defeating them. In the end it was either mostly bullsh**t or didn’t matter, Russia won in 3 days then called off the dogs. This is not a cheerleading competition for the side you want to win. This is war. All that matters is getting accurate information of what is happening.

[Splash]

After seeing this clip, there's no doubt it was an aircraft.

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/1497042959186870277

[Storr]

After seeing this clip, there's no doubt it was an aircraft.

<tweet snip>

Unfortunately it crashed into an apartment block.

https://twitter.com/AuroraIntel/status/1497044040369549326?s=20&t=35HcBqSDtg...

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1497047402469109806

Kinda uncomfortable with how consistently good Rubio has been about this whole situation.

[It’s so Joever]

While I did start the whole winter war comparison, I think we need to keep in mind that the USSR was literally in the worst military shape ever because of purges. Russia today is not near that.

[NOVA Green]

Ukraine's National Guard just beat VDV Spetsnaz at Hostomel? Are ya kidding me?

It's a delay of the inevitable, but that's incredible!

So not only does Putin face crippling sanctions but his army is getting beat by a bunch of Slav squatters with Jean jackets and stingers!

I get your point but 7 years into the war, the Ukrainian army is very well supplied and more than a capable fighting force. Not just some loose cannons with AKs.

I know it's a joke. But it's still incredible that National Guard units beat the VDV.

Just working my way through the thread having recently returned from work, so apologies if this has already been mentioned.

Ukranian Males of a certain age did experience mandatory military conscription back in the USSR days.

The % of Ukranian Males with formal military training is much higher than in most European countries.

I would imagine much of the Ukranian Senior Officer Corp were in fact well versed and trained in Russian Military tactics and technology (at that time).

[ProudModerate2]

The site froze for a while.
Did the Russians hack Virginia's system for a while?
RussianBear must have told the Kremlin how pro-Ukraine our small family is.

[Ferguson97]

The site froze for a while.
Did the Russians hack Virginia's system for a while?
RussianBear must have told the Kremlin how pro-Ukraine our small family is.

I assumed there was some major change of events and that the site overloaded.

[ProudModerate2]

32 min ago.

Russian forces are about 20 miles from Kyiv, Biden administration officials tell lawmakers.
From CNN's MJ Lee and Michael Callahan

Russian mechanized forces that had entered Ukraine through Belarus were about 20 miles (32 kilometers) from Kyiv, top Biden administration officials told House lawmakers in a briefing Thursday, according to two sources on the call, which occurred about 6:30 p.m. ET.

The officials described another Russian element that entered Ukraine from Russia being a bit further away, but that both were headed toward Kyiv with the goal of encircling the city and potentially toppling the Ukrainian government, according to the lawmaker on the call.

This is very close.
Scary times for the people still in Kyiv. I hope them well and safety through all of this madness.

[John Dule]

https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1497047402469109806

Kinda uncomfortable with how consistently good Rubio has been about this whole situation.

If only he would go on Fox and tell this to Tucker, who has spent this whole week telling the homunculi who watch his show that America is to blame for this.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Something that seems confirmed id that Russia clearly lied about taking down all of Ukraine's air defense.

[2016]

https://twitter.com/marcorubio/status/1497047402469109806

Kinda uncomfortable with how consistently good Rubio has been about this whole situation.

Rubio needs to be POTUS. He knows this stuff!

Democratic Presidents have been weak on Foreign Policy and tracking Dictators like Putin.

Take Bill Clinton for example: He had at least five times the Chance taking out Bin Laden before he launched that deadly 9/11 attack but didn't during his Presidency.

[StateBoiler]

Matt Chance of CNN saying the Su-27 taken down over Kiev was Ukrainian, not Russian.

https://mobile.twitter.com/RALee85/status/1497051901107466243

[ProudModerate2]

Matt Chance of CNN saying the Su-27 taken down over Kiev was Ukrainian, not Russian.

https://mobile.twitter.com/RALee85/status/1497051901107466243

Damn that sucks.
But the Russians are not in any strong form, inside Kyiv, to have anti-air capability.
Sounds strange.

[2016]

I still think Bidens weak Afghanistan withdrawal emboldened Putin to launch this War.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Matt Chance of CNN saying the Su-27 taken down over Kiev was Ukrainian, not Russian.

https://mobile.twitter.com/RALee85/status/1497051901107466243

Damn that sucks.

Both Ukraine and Russia are broadly reliant on ex-Soviet hardware (Ukraine moreso than Russia if I had to guess).