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The overall net effect would come from hesitant Democrats, of which Biden is struggling to coalesce and extremely small % of "undecided" voters. Any polling bump Biden receives is likely to be due to non response bias which was exactly the case of Hollywood Tape. Trump voters may be less inclined to respond for a few weeks but they'll revert back to norm with any good news. The true bump I suspect Biden receives in the long run is probably 1% or less, which is still something considering he was extremely close to losing.

Honestly, I think the Trump people right now are worse than Hillary ever was. There hasn't been a Democrat as easy to beat as Biden in most of our lifetimes and they're just throwing this election. "If you dislike Biden then you are already voting for Trump." At least Hillary was trying to win over Romney voters that don't like sexist comments, lmao.

I think Trump's strategy is to get more low trust people who may have not voted in the past to join his base to make it larger and not focus on your traditional swing voters who care about issues and rhetoric. How that works out for him will be interesting to see.

2020 was the time to rely on those people. This election will likely be lower turnout than last time so he's relying on Biden voters who have voted before to stay home, Trump voters from 2020 to turn out, and people who were eligible to vote in 2020 but didn't to turn out in 2024. I'm just not seeing it.

Yes this is why I'm skeptical of this strategy - however even if turnout is down nationally, it doesn't mean the decline will be universal. In 2020 for instance, despite the big turnout increase from 2016, many black urban cores saw turnout declines, and generally the western states saw larger turnout jumps than eastern states.

So what are the odds Trump goes to jail (briefly?) before the ele tion due to ignoring gag orders, probation ect? He may even want to in that he thinks it helps him politically.

Why would there be any more gag orders?

Fair question..can this happen during appeals sentencing ect if he threatens judges promises things to legal authorities ect? If there is a riot during sentencing would there be quick arrests or would that process also be long? In not predicting any of this but wouldn't have predicted 1/6. Is this a possibility no one is thinking of? Not a legal expert myself.

Honestly, I think the Trump people right now are worse than Hillary ever was. There hasn't been a Democrat as easy to beat as Biden in most of our lifetimes and they're just throwing this election. "If you dislike Biden then you are already voting for Trump." At least Hillary was trying to win over Romney voters that don't like sexist comments, lmao.

I think Trump's strategy is to get more low trust people who may have not voted in the past to join his base to make it larger and not focus on your traditional swing voters who care about issues and rhetoric. How that works out for him will be interesting to see.

Plus, his soft voters may anyway come home by election day, when they forget about this conviction. Biden is simply that awful.

So what are the odds Trump goes to jail (briefly?) before the ele tion due to ignoring gag orders, probation ect? He may even want to in that he thinks it helps him politically.

Why would there be any more gag orders?

This will have to get clarified but in most cases there's no need for a gag order after the verdict, and the jury's verdict can't be influenced anymore, but in this case Trump is going to keep railing against the people involved in this case with an audience of millions, so it's a dangerous situation and there may be a need to continue the gag order.

Trump will suffer political damage.  Whether the damage is small, medium, large or fatal remains to be seen.

The effect will be among shaky Biden voters and/or swing voters.  This will not move Trump's hardcore base one iota.

Biden almost certainly wins Arab voters as a whole, but I could see Trump outright winning precincts in heavily Arab areas like Dearborn. These days, generally members of ethnic groups that self-sort into their own religious communities tend to be more Conservative/R-friendly than the group at large.

One comparison could be Jewish voters - Trump landslided in most of the prominent 95%+ Jewish communities but Jewish voters as a whole are very D.

Well we won't have long to wait for a better steer on this.

I think he means beyond 2024, cause the Tories should be wiped out in West London barring some miracle or polling shift.

And longterm it really is an open question. I think it really depends on what the Conservatives become in opposition.

Honestly, I think the Trump people right now are worse than Hillary ever was. There hasn't been a Democrat as easy to beat as Biden in most of our lifetimes and they're just throwing this election. "If you dislike Biden then you are already voting for Trump." At least Hillary was trying to win over Romney voters that don't like sexist comments, lmao.

I think Trump's strategy is to get more low trust people who may have not voted in the past to join his base to make it larger and not focus on your traditional swing voters who care about issues and rhetoric. How that works out for him will be interesting to see.

Yeah I think people are confusing Trump not trying to appeal to wine mom suburbanites with Trump not trying to win the election at all. He's just not aiming for that demographic.

Honestly, I think the Trump people right now are worse than Hillary ever was. There hasn't been a Democrat as easy to beat as Biden in most of our lifetimes and they're just throwing this election. "If you dislike Biden then you are already voting for Trump." At least Hillary was trying to win over Romney voters that don't like sexist comments, lmao.

I think Trump's strategy is to get more low trust people who may have not voted in the past to join his base to make it larger and not focus on your traditional swing voters who care about issues and rhetoric. How that works out for him will be interesting to see.

2020 was the time to rely on those people. This election will likely be lower turnout than last time so he's relying on Biden voters who have voted before to stay home, Trump voters from 2020 to turn out, and people who were eligible to vote in 2020 but didn't to turn out in 2024. I'm just not seeing it.