I have a hard time seeing how anyone can seriously argue this point - Texas turnout patterns in 2020 were clearly favorable to Republicans as has been the case for quite a while. The only high turnout Democrat area of Texas is Austin and if you equalize turnout across precincts, you actually get a narrow Biden win. Biden also won precincts worth more people than Trump in TX by a couple million.
I’m saying that the TX turnout patterns were more favourable to the Dems in 2020 than it had historically been in the past, and crucially more favourable than I expect them to be in 2024. By the way, which method are you using to calculate the size of the voter pool in each precinct specifically?