French presidential election, 2022

[Hash]

For reference, the vote transfers in 2017 looked something thus (looking at Ifop and Ipsos election day surveys):

Ifop (their numbers seem to contradict each other a bit):
Mélenchon: FBM 52-54% | Panzergirl 12-14% | Abst./blank/invalid 32-36%
Hamon: FBM 73-79% | Panzergirl 3-4% | Abst./blank/invalid 17-24%
Fillon: FBM 51-55% | Panzergirl 21-23% | Abst./blank/invalid 21-26%

Ipsos:
Mélenchon: FBM 52% | Panzergirl 7% | Abst./blank/invalid 41%
Hamon: FBM 71% | Panzergirl 2% | Abst./blank/invalid 27%
Fillon: FBM 48% | Panzergirl 20% | Abst./blank/invalid 32%

Today, in Ifop and Ipsos' rolling:

Mélenchon: FBM 27-29% | Panzergirl 20-23% | Abst./etc. 48-53%
Jadot: FBM 49-57% | Panzergirl 7-18% | Abst./etc. 33-36%
Pécresse: FBM 45% | Panzergirl 27-28% | Abst./etc. 27-28%
Zemmour: FBM 15-13% | Panzergirl 74-79% | Abst./etc. 6-13%

So some noteworthy gains by Panzergirl with Mélenchon voters and even the moderate left, although she was losing by a landslide in 2017 and now she's only losing by a small margin. Remains to be seen how solid her transfers are with those people. Some somewhat smaller gains also from the 'moderate' right voters. But abstention will be even higher in 2022 than in 2017 (and 2017 abstention was already high), particularly on the left.

[WMS]

This French election reminds me of this American classic.

Why vote for the lesser evil? Vote Cthulhu Le Pen for President!

[CumbrianLefty]

I'm guessing that there will be a panic stage followed by a "front républicain" effect that will lead some leftists who would otherwise have abstained to rally to Macron. Probably significantly less than in 2017, though.

I hope to God that the 2027 runoff will be something other than "preppy neoliberal vs far-right demagogue" though. If we keep going this way there's a real chance France might fall.

I'm repeating myself, but we desperately need a functioning mainstream left in France again.

[Oryxslayer]

I'm guessing that there will be a panic stage followed by a "front républicain" effect that will lead some leftists who would otherwise have abstained to rally to Macron. Probably significantly less than in 2017, though.

I hope to God that the 2027 runoff will be something other than "preppy neoliberal vs far-right demagogue" though. If we keep going this way there's a real chance France might fall.

I'm repeating myself, but we desperately need a functioning mainstream left in France again.

To that end, Melenchon is probably an obstacle rather than an ally, so everyone should hope he just decides not to run because of age reasons. Setting aside all of his problems for the moment, the man's coalition electorally seems to constantly be a case of comparatively high floor but too low ceiling. Therefore, he can never make the runoff unless the overall vote is sufficiently split. As long as a chunk of voters see him has the best option, there will be a smaller pool for any other progressive candidate to appeal to.

[Zinneke]

A handy reminder Melenchon refused to call for a republican front in 2017 and will likely not do the same here (after all Le Pen and him have the same creditors/handlers). His minions, supporters and enablers also claiming that Macron and Le Pen are two cheeks of the same backside is hardly helping the republican front either. It just goes to show though that his core support have no conception of the stakes. I’d send them to a holiday camp in Hungary with anti-Orban activists then Belarus to get a taster.

[jaichind]

I'm guessing that there will be a panic stage followed by a "front républicain" effect that will lead some leftists who would otherwise have abstained to rally to Macron. Probably significantly less than in 2017, though.

I hope to God that the 2027 runoff will be something other than "preppy neoliberal vs far-right demagogue" though. If we keep going this way there's a real chance France might fall.

I'm repeating myself, but we desperately need a functioning mainstream left in France again.

To that end, Melenchon is probably an obstacle rather than an ally, so everyone should hope he just decides not to run because of age reasons. Setting aside all of his problems for the moment, the man's coalition electorally seems to constantly be a case of comparatively high floor but too low ceiling. Therefore, he can never make the runoff unless the overall vote is sufficiently split. As long as a chunk of voters see him has the best option, there will be a smaller pool for any other progressive candidate to appeal to.

Is this not more about Macron not running in future elections than Melenchon not running in the future.  It seems to me Macron sucks the oxygen out of traditional Left and traditional Right candidates leaving the field for the non-mainstream Left and non-mainstream Right as the alternatives.  Once Macron moves on I think the balance will shift back.

[parochial boy]

I'm guessing that there will be a panic stage followed by a "front républicain" effect that will lead some leftists who would otherwise have abstained to rally to Macron. Probably significantly less than in 2017, though.

I hope to God that the 2027 runoff will be something other than "preppy neoliberal vs far-right demagogue" though. If we keep going this way there's a real chance France might fall.

I'm repeating myself, but we desperately need a functioning mainstream left in France again.

In that respect, in all likelihood 2027 should take place without Mélenchon. Which really raises the question as to whether some sort of organised left can reconstitute itself by then or face the risk of descending into a Dutch style electoral oblivion.

It might be tempting to suggest that there are simply to many people who are culturally and ideologically left wing in France for that to ever be the case. But, well, if you don't have an actual electoral offer that people can respond to then they won't vote for you, the electorate isn't structured into ideological blocks in the way they were in the 20th century.

Mélenchon himself probably has been a problem in this respect, as for all there are various points being raised about the Union Populaire becoming an actual structured and organised activist movement, reaching out to the rest of the left, this is mainly something being mooted by people who are sympathetic to him, but outside of his party. As long as LFI revolves around the guy and his presidential ambitions (and the degree to which he alienates other people) it seems inevitable that by the next set of European or local elections they will have devolved back into one of many small outfits duking it out for an ever declining base of self identified left wing voters.

The problem is, well, probably not ideological differences, but the absence of any real figures who might have the ability to develop some sort of popular message; as well as an electoral system that seemingly mostly incetivises the existing parties to prioritise hanging on to their existing fiefdoms; and ultimately a centre-left that is singularly unable to move on from or come to terms with what went wrong during Hollande's presidency and the 2017 campaign. The outlook seems pretty hopeless at the moment.

Speaking of Ifop's rolling polls - even if the guy is bit of a busted flush right now - they did use their cumulative polling to come out with this map of Zemmour's regional support.



Iirc, the regional polling was pretty mediocre in 2017, but this one does put into perspective the already discussed differences between his and Le Pen's electorate. In particular, the difference between the supposedly more economically liberal far right electorate in the South and the more social/welfarist one in the north. The former being more suscpetible to Zemmour than the latter. His apparent strength in IdF, well, I can think of reasons, but best to wait and see if that comes true in the end.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

I suppose the one saving grace for the French Left is that there doesn't really seem to be an anointed successor for The Flawless and the Beautiful when he decides to shed his mortal guise and ascend Mount Olympus, and his absence would free up a lot of woolly centre left voters vaguely ok with him as a figure that has some need to occasionally give them some policy bones. Of course, the fact that the French Left needs these people and finds it so hard to grab some people that aouldy have voted for UK labour and the SPD even at their nadirs is not particularly fantastic news, but that predated the  Flanpocalypse tbh.

[Sir Mohamed]

Ugh, this is actually getting close? I wonder whether some left-wing voters will end up holding their nose and still vote for Macron after the 1st round a polls continue to be beck-in-neck? At this point, a LePen presidency seems like a real possibility.

If LePen ekes out a narrow win, what's the outlook for legislative elections? Can her party win a governing majority or would this just end up in a stalemate/divided government. I guess she couldn't do that much without a majority? As far as I know, the prez of France has less executive powers than POTUS and vetos can be overridden with a simple majority.

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I am shocked and appalled that CGT members who work for the railroad are refusing to vote for a candidate who has pledged to take income out of their pockets so corporations and elites can have more money! I do not understand this.

[Astatine]

French pollsters asking the crucial questions:

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1511098039972380675

https://twitter.com/EuropeElects/status/1511084542454603778

[Zinneke]

I am shocked and appalled that CGT members who work for the railroad are refusing to vote for a candidate who has pledged to take income out of their pockets so corporations and elites can have more money! I do not understand this.

Here we go, the workerist dungarees-wearing act again...do economists have their own union too?

In the end independent trade unions won't exist in an authoritarian society, be it Le Pen or Mélenchon. That's the difference we're talking about here. And Hungary is demonstrating that authoritarian rule is incredibly hard to reverse.

[Oryxslayer]

I suppose the one saving grace for the French Left is that there doesn't really seem to be an anointed successor for The Flawless and the Beautiful when he decides to shed his mortal guise and ascend Mount Olympus, and his absence would free up a lot of woolly centre left voters vaguely ok with him as a figure that has some need to occasionally give them some policy bones. Of course, the fact that the French Left needs these people and finds it so hard to grab some people that aouldy have voted for UK labour and the SPD even at their nadirs is not particularly fantastic news, but that predated the  Flanpocalypse tbh.

On this point, it seems that a lot of the newer generation of voters who identify with the left, which no longer are simply 'young' but also in the 30-45 category, do not assign the value to many principles that previous left-identifying voters do. Unions and Labor take a back seat to Climate Change and the associated economic transformation. This generation has also grown up within the EU and while may not identify as European, see it as a bulwark against the backsliding of all types of rights - maybe incorrectly given Hungry. We see these voters act upon this in most other countries with multiparty systems - even Hildago wouldn't have gotten to where she is without climate policies and urban planning transformations. Which is something that speaks to why Macron does end up as the preferred candidate for a lot of voters who once would have voted PS: he appeals to these 'new' issues and identities and voters can look past/don't care about a fiscally right set accompanying issues.

To that end, the EELV might have the 2027 Presidential frontrunner somewhere in it's midst right now, but Jadot is clearly not it.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

An important thing to understand about French politics these days is that the average Le Pen supporter is not an angry young man or an embittered pensioner, but an ordinary person in an ordinary job with children at school and with tricky household budgets to manage. They are sensitive to the cost of living and suspect (rightly) that they are getting badly served by public services, particularly when compared to other groups even if they generally misidentify who those other groups are.* They are, undeniably, quite racist by usual North Western European norms, but so are people who are far less likely to vote for Le Pen: that's just France. It is a sobering thought, but the sort of people who Le Pen centres her appeal around and wishes to drive to the polls in large numbers are the sort of people that Keir Starmer, Olaf Scholz and so on also spend most of their time trying to appeal to. But perhaps even worse is that no one else in French politics really tries seriously to appeal to this section of the electorate. So long as this remains true, it is very hard to find any hope in French politics.

_{*Which, by the way, is why left-wing appeals to preserve the social state and so on have fallen flat for years and continue to do so. Of course the French social state (I use this term rather than the more familiar welfare state for a reason) is rather unusually structured and funded: put bluntly, the principle beneficiaries are not those who one might expect of a more typical welfare state. That all of this is a major contribution to the structural factors underpinning far-right political support is rarely acknowledged but undeniably true.}

[Zinneke]

An example of what Al is describing is the pension system, which incidentally favours the likes of CGT “blue collared” labour aristocracy (celebrated by the likes of DFB because what matters is wearing dungarees and virtue signalling you see) and their outdated privileges over e.g. tourism sector workers in the South who have to serve Dutch caravan dwellers for a living. Who is really worse off?

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

I am shocked and appalled that CGT members who work for the railroad are refusing to vote for a candidate who has pledged to take income out of their pockets so corporations and elites can have more money! I do not understand this.

Here we go, the workerist dungarees-wearing act again...do economists have their own union too?

In the end independent trade unions won't exist in an authoritarian society, be it Le Pen or Mélenchon. That's the difference we're talking about here. And Hungary is demonstrating that authoritarian rule is incredibly hard to reverse.

I am not arguing it is good that CGT members would refuse to vote for Macron over Le Pen. I am arguing that they will do so and that it should surprise no one that they would do this. Macron made the choice to make the election a referendum on his plan to increase the retirement age - he is responsible for this.

[President Johnson]

An important thing to understand about French politics these days is that the average Le Pen supporter is not an angry young man or an embittered pensioner, but an ordinary person in an ordinary job with children at school and with tricky household budgets to manage. They are sensitive to the cost of living and suspect (rightly) that they are getting badly served by public services, particularly when compared to other groups even if they generally misidentify who those other groups are.* They are, undeniably, quite racist by usual North Western European norms, but so are people who are far less likely to vote for Le Pen: that's just France. It is a sobering thought, but the sort of people who Le Pen centres her appeal around and wishes to drive to the polls in large numbers are the sort of people that Keir Starmer, Olaf Scholz and so on also spend most of their time trying to appeal to. But perhaps even worse is that no one else in French politics really tries seriously to appeal to this section of the electorate. So long as this remains true, it is very hard to find any hope in French politics.

_{*Which, by the way, is why left-wing appeals to preserve the social state and so on have fallen flat for years and continue to do so. Of course the French social state (I use this term rather than the more familiar welfare state for a reason) is rather unusually structured and funded: put bluntly, the principle beneficiaries are not those who one might expect of a more typical welfare state. That all of this is a major contribution to the structural factors underpinning far-right political support is rarely acknowledged but undeniably true.}

You're raising fair points. The question is just whether LePen is actually able or willing to do something serious about that. And I'm very skeptical she has practical solutions to these problems, especially with her anti-EU stances that would harm France's economy. Just to throw a tantrum at the "power elite" by electing a far right-winger doesn't solve a damn problem. You can doubt Macron is the right leader to tackle these problems, but there are other candidates available in the first round. Voters could send someone else to th runoff. And just because Zemmour appears more extreme doesn't mean LePen isn't. Her presidency would be a total s-show.

[Mike88]

I am shocked and appalled that CGT members who work for the railroad are refusing to vote for a candidate who has pledged to take income out of their pockets so corporations and elites can have more money! I do not understand this.

Here we go, the workerist dungarees-wearing act again...do economists have their own union too?

In the end independent trade unions won't exist in an authoritarian society, be it Le Pen or Mélenchon. That's the difference we're talking about here. And Hungary is demonstrating that authoritarian rule is incredibly hard to reverse.

I am not arguing it is good that CGT members would refuse to vote for Macron over Le Pen. I am arguing that they will do so and that it should surprise no one that they would do this. Macron made the choice to make the election a referendum on his plan to increase the retirement age - he is responsible for this.

Not been following this. What is the content of Macron's increase retirement age reform?

[Senator Incitatus]

Getting a good laugh reading English-language media; they are attempting to utilize their most uncompromisingly alarmist terms against Le Pen while having to invent brand new warnings for the Dangerous Zemmour in the exact same pieces.

[Zinneke]

I am shocked and appalled that CGT members who work for the railroad are refusing to vote for a candidate who has pledged to take income out of their pockets so corporations and elites can have more money! I do not understand this.

Here we go, the workerist dungarees-wearing act again...do economists have their own union too?

In the end independent trade unions won't exist in an authoritarian society, be it Le Pen or Mélenchon. That's the difference we're talking about here. And Hungary is demonstrating that authoritarian rule is incredibly hard to reverse.

I am not arguing it is good that CGT members would refuse to vote for Macron over Le Pen. I am arguing that they will do so and that it should surprise no one that they would do this. Macron made the choice to make the election a referendum on his plan to increase the retirement age - he is responsible for this.

But that would make them Horrible People you see. The logic is literally "woah my Muslim Uber driving neighbor might get deported under Le Pen but there's no way I'm stopping that by voting Macron because he wants to put up my retirement age".

In an electoral system like the French one you vote for the least worst candidate. And if you don't vote at all when the fascist is in the second round, don't complain then when the consequences are what they are. But no we'll still have Philippe Martinez on the radio with his crocodile tears for the working class while most of us will never have the pension and privileges he has. That's if Le Pen doesn't dissolve Radio France and the CGT in her first week in office.

[GM Team Member and Deputy PPT WB]

https://twitter.com/PopulismUpdates/status/1511065758796681217?s=20&t=30AJkW...

[Lechasseur]

The momentum's on Le Pen's side now. I really think she wins

[Lechasseur]

A Le Pen victory will literally kill me...My life's over if she wins, she will destroy it...

[Lechasseur]

What"s the point of going on really, she'll get rid of me, deprive me of my country of birth and all i've ever known, everything i had to live for

[CumbrianLefty]

What"s the point of going on really, she'll get rid of me, deprive me of my country of birth and all i've ever known, everything i had to live for

Come on mate, enough of this. There is (almost) always a reason to go on.

I still don't think that le Pen will win - if she does it will be awful for France, but France will survive.

And regardless of how it all ends up, it is surely obvious that Macron making raising the retirement age a major plank of his re-election bid was an astonishing and reckless act of hubris from him.