Spanish elections and politics

[Velasco]

Did psoe ... Get anything in the deal?

There was no deal. The PSOE's Federal Commission just agreed to abstain "for the good of the country" and that is all.

[Velasco]

El País: "Spain’s Socialists will allow PP to form minority government.
Acting Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy will return to office in early November"

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/10/24/inenglish/1477292590_216340.html

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[Lumine]

Did psoe ... Get anything in the deal?

It's not like PSOE had a lot of leverage left. The alternative was to have a third election on December, which they would have to contest with no Prime Ministerial candidate, with a large polling deficit and projected results that would have seen not only Podemos as the second largest party, but Rajoy inching towards the 150-155 seats and able to hold a majority government with C's as PSOE would lose quite a few seats.

One can wonder on the long-term damage this will cause to PSOE, but in the short term, I can see why they prefer a minority Rajoy Government with them still having a large bloc of deputies rather than a leap into what they think would be electoral disaster in December.

[jaichind]

I suspect now with  Rajoy forming the government the situation will not bt stable and we will be headed toward a mid-term election most likely toward the end of 2017 where the vote will most likely polarize around PP and Podemos.

[aross]

How many PSOE deputies do you expect to vote No?

[Velasco]

Did psoe ... Get anything in the deal?

It's not like PSOE had a lot of leverage left. The alternative was to have a third election on December, which they would have to contest with no Prime Ministerial candidate, with a large polling deficit and projected results that would have seen not only Podemos as the second largest party, but Rajoy inching towards the 150-155 seats and able to hold a majority government with C's as PSOE would lose quite a few seats.

One can wonder on the long-term damage this will cause to PSOE, but in the short term, I can see why they prefer a minority Rajoy Government with them still having a large bloc of deputies rather than a leap into what they think would be electoral disaster in December.

A third election would have been a complete disaster for the whole Left, because of political disenchantment. There is internal strife in Podemos too. Anyway it's much worse for the PSOE. The incredibly inept way in which Felipe González -and the 'Old Senate'- in alliance with Susana Díaz -and the regional leaders called 'the barons'- have conducted the coup against Pedro Sánchez -who had far more misses than hits as party leader- in order to force the abstention -allowing the most corrupt party in Western Europe to stay in government- is going to cause a serious damage in the already weak credibility of the party. Furthermore, the coward attitude of the leaders of the 'rebellion' is contributing to deepen the hole. The silence of people like Susana Díaz, who has no courage to stand up, speak and give arguments in favour of abstention, is very eloquent.

[🦀🎂🦀🎂]

so, err, who is going to be PSOE's leader now?

[Lumine]

Did psoe ... Get anything in the deal?

It's not like PSOE had a lot of leverage left. The alternative was to have a third election on December, which they would have to contest with no Prime Ministerial candidate, with a large polling deficit and projected results that would have seen not only Podemos as the second largest party, but Rajoy inching towards the 150-155 seats and able to hold a majority government with C's as PSOE would lose quite a few seats.

One can wonder on the long-term damage this will cause to PSOE, but in the short term, I can see why they prefer a minority Rajoy Government with them still having a large bloc of deputies rather than a leap into what they think would be electoral disaster in December.

A third election would have been a complete disaster for the whole Left, because of political disenchantment. There is internal strife in Podemos too. Anyway it's much worse for the PSOE. The incredibly inept way in which Felipe González -and the 'Old Senate'- in alliance with Susana Díaz -and the regional leaders called 'the barons'- have conducted the coup against Pedro Sánchez -who had far more misses than hits as party leader- in order to force the abstention -allowing the most corrupt party in Western Europe to stay in government- is going to cause a serious damage in the already weak credibility of the party. Furthermore, the coward attitude of the leaders of the 'rebellion' is contributing to deepen the hole. The silence of people like Susana Díaz, who has no courage to stand up, speak and give arguments in favour of abstention, is very eloquent.

I wonder, do you think Rajoy is lucky or just unnaturally skilled at surviving? I mean, at several points between December 2015 and June 2016 I was sure he was finished, and despite everything that's happened he's about to be Prime Minister again with the complicity of the socialists, who seem to be committing further and further electoral suicide to no end.

[Velasco]

I wonder, do you think Rajoy is lucky or just unnaturally skilled at surviving? I mean, at several points between December 2015 and June 2016 I was sure he was finished, and despite everything that's happened he's about to be Prime Minister again with the complicity of the socialists, who seem to be committing further and further electoral suicide to no end.

I think the survival of Rajoy is due in large measure to his resilience, which is the main virtue of that terrible man. "Resistir es vencer". Of course nobody can survive in politics without a good dose of luck.

I just read this analysis by Enric Juliana. It's a good summary of events in the last 300 days. If you have reading comprehension in Spanish and interest to comprehend the situation, you should take a look.

http://www.caffereggio.net/2016/10/23/trescientos-dias-en-la-niebla-de-enric-juliana-en-la-vanguardia/

[Lumine]

I wonder, do you think Rajoy is lucky or just unnaturally skilled at surviving? I mean, at several points between December 2015 and June 2016 I was sure he was finished, and despite everything that's happened he's about to be Prime Minister again with the complicity of the socialists, who seem to be committing further and further electoral suicide to no end.

I think the survival of Rajoy is due in large measure to his resilience, which is the main virtue of that terrible man. "Resistir es vencer". Of course nobody can survive in politics without a good dose of luck.

I just read this analysis by Enric Juliana. It's a good summary of events in the last 300 days. If you have reading comprehension in Spanish and interest to comprehend the situation, you should take a look.

http://www.caffereggio.net/2016/10/23/trescientos-dias-en-la-niebla-de-enric-juliana-en-la-vanguardia/

Oh, certainly, I've taken quite an interesting in reading about Spain this year. My native language too, so even better!

I do wonder when exactly will Rajoy's leadership of the PP end. Surely he can't go further than this term, right?

[Velasco]

How many PSOE deputies do you expect to vote No?

By the moment 13 MPs have said they will vote No, including the 7 MPs from Catalonia and the 2 from the Balearic Islands. Also Margarita Robles (a former secretary of Justice who ran second in Madrid behind Sánchez) and Odón Elorza (a former mayor of San Sebastián). Pedro Sánchez is still a member of the parliament: maybe he could resign before the vote.

[Mike88]

Spain was doing so well without no government. Just kidding.

Finally, the PSOE gain some good sense. Going to a third election would be suicide.

[Velasco]

I do wonder when exactly will Rajoy's leadership of the PP end. Surely he can't go further than this term, right?

With a person as hermetic as Rajoy you can never be sure, but I think his original plan was to be at the head just two terms. Also, the fact that he survives cannot hide that the Popular Party is in need of a comprehensive refurbishment (and not in the style of the  refurbishment of the Génova Street HQs, funded with black money). Maybe Rajoy could try to place a successor in this upcoming legislature, who knows.

Spain was doing so well without no government. Just kidding.

Finally, the PSOE gain some good sense. Going to a third election would be suicide.

Spain was fine. No joke. The hard times are going to begin just now, with the harsh budget cuts demanded by the European Commission. The PP government -otherwise a champion of austerity- failed in the fulfillment of deficit targets, because 2015 was an election year and the government approved certain tax reductions.

I thought that suicide and good sense were antithetical, but it's just me

[Mike88]

I do wonder when exactly will Rajoy's leadership of the PP end. Surely he can't go further than this term, right?

With a person as hermetic as Rajoy you can never be sure, but I think his original plan was to be at the head just two terms. Also, the fact that he survives cannot hide that the Popular Party is in need of a comprehensive refurbishment (and not in the style of the  refurbishment of the Génova Street HQs, funded with black money). Maybe Rajoy could try to place a successor in this upcoming legislature, who knows.

Spain was doing so well without no government. Just kidding.

Finally, the PSOE gain some good sense. Going to a third election would be suicide.

Spain was fine. No joke. The hard times are going to begin just now, with the harsh budget cuts demanded by the European Commission. The PP government -otherwise a champion of austerity- failed in the fulfillment of deficit targets, because 2015 was an election year and the government approved certain tax reductions.

I thought that suicide and good sense were antithetical, but it's just me

The "just kidding" was that you cannot be without a government for a very long time. But also because, here in Portugal, we joke that the solution to our dying economy is to have no government at all, just look at Spain.
But you're right, although Spain is growing 3%, one of the strongest showing in Europe, now the EU is going to demand a deficit bellow 3%, it's going to be tough.

[Velasco]

so, err, who is going to be PSOE's leader now?

I have not a clue. Right now I'm not following political affairs on a daily basis, although I'm not totally disconnected. I know that Pedro Sánchez intends to try and it seems that finally Susana Díaz is not going to take a step forward. From what I've been reading and /or hearing it wouldn't be strange a repetition of the 2014 contest between Pedro Sánchez and Eduardo Madina. This time Susana Díaz and the powerful Andalusia branch would be backing Madina against Sánchez, when in 2014 the Andalusian votes helped Sánchez to win the leadership. The problem was that Sánchez refused to be the puppet of Díaz; subsequently he lost the support of the 'barons' without doing anything to gain new allies in the party. Sánchez vs Madina again would be sad and fun to watch, all at once.

[Velasco]

Now that I remember, even Josep Borrell has said that he doesn't rule out the possibility of running for leadership. Borrell is a very clever man who held various portfolios in times of Felipe González. Also (quote from Wikipedia) "in 1998 he ran against PSOE's General Secretary Joaquin Almunia in a primary election intended to determine who the party would nominate as its prime ministerial candidate in the 2000 General Elections, but due to internal pressures within the PSOE, Borrell resigned from candidacy in 1999". In the last days Mr Borrell, who is not in favour of allowing Rajoy to govern, made statements critical with the botched job made by the people who ousted Sánchez. I don't think he's going to run, but it would be certainly fun. It's clear that people like Mr Borrell is at a level above the mediocre politicians in the both sides in which is splitted the PSOE these days.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It's pretty clear that the PSOE was screwed either way. The question for them is more how they got into this mess rather than which of the extremely unappealing options they eventually chose...

[Filuwaúrdjan]

I've made this joke before, but what's Spanish for 'Country Party'? Would be a more accurate name by this point.

[Velasco]

Pedro Sánchez considers not attending Rajoy's investiture, fearing reprisals to rebel MPs from the PSOE's interim leadership in case former secretary general "leads" them. Sánchez is determined to "maintain the dignity", so he refuses to abstain as certain 'baron' asked him in a public statement. Also, he won't resign as MP because such move would weaken his position before an eventual leadership contest.

Eduardo Madina, the man who was defeated by Sánchez in 2014, won't run for leadership because "sequels are never good"

Francina Armengol, premier of the Balearic Islands and leader of the PSOE's regional branch, says that abstention is a "shame" and a "treason".

According to media speculations, between 15 and 20 socialist MPs might vote No to Rajoy.

Aware of the difficulties of governing in minority, Rajoy will try to attract PSOE to the deal between PP and Ciudadanos in his investiture speech.

[Velasco]

Investiture session begins at 18:00 (CET)

PSOE MPs must say "No" in the first vote and abstain in the second, allowing the election of Mr Rajoy.

PSOE spokesman Antonio Hernando warns that there's no room for dissidence.

[Zinneke]

I've made this joke before, but what's Spanish for 'Country Party'? Would be a more accurate name by this point.

Par'ido de lo' Pue'lo'

[Lumine]

Woah, the Podemos representatives just walked out of the investiture debate shortly before the vote is to begin.

EDIT: Never mind, just a small protest, they returned to vote.

[Velasco]

El Diario:  "PSOE votes 'No' to Rajoy 48 hours before making him PM"

Today's vote: Yes 170 / No 180

Woah, the Podemos representatives just walked out of the investiture debate shortly before the vote is to begin.

EDIT: Never mind, just a small protest, they returned to vote.

Apparently the Podemos MPs walked out after serious allegations made by the PSOE spokesman, namely "using the name of Spain at the service of (foreign) dictators"

Pablo Iglesias proclaimed himself the only leader of the opposition against the 'Triple Alliance' made by PP, C's and PSOE. Also, he made some people angry. When the Podemos leader said that PP members are "future criminals", the secretary general of the conservatives Maria Dolores de Cospedal called Iglesias "scoundrel" from her bench. Cameras recorded Albert Rivera saying "what an asshole" after Iglesias recommended him to use Google in order to know what is the Burgundy Cross, implying that the leader of Ciudadanos is an ignorant. Iglesias said: "To this day the two crisis-proof traditional institutions are the Monarchy and the PNV, closely united by the Cross of Burgundy. Mr Rivera better searchs in Google".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cross_of_Burgundy#In_Spain

[Mike88]

Rajoy invested: For: 170 Against: 111 Abs: 68

[Velasco]

PSOE: 68 abstain, 15 No, 1 resigned (Pedro Sánchez)