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  Spanish elections and politics
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Author Topic: Spanish elections and politics  (Read 295667 times)
Velasco
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« Reply #1075 on: July 06, 2016, 02:33:21 pm »
« edited: July 07, 2016, 01:11:32 am by Velasco »

Variation in percentage of the vote for the PSOE between December 2015 and June 2016



Could you do the same for PSOE? I think they grew up in the urban areas but lost in its traditional strongholds, but a more in-depth picture would be interesting.

They lost seats in Andalucia apparently. Is it because of the infighting?

I think the PSOE loses in Andalusia, Extremadura and Castilla-La Mancha are due to the mobilisation of abstentionists in rural areas who voted for PP. It's possible that there was some small vote transfer from PSOE to PP in those places, or maybe PSOE lost some thousands of voters to abstention. Without provincial analysis of the vote it's hard to tell. The other noticeable thing is a slight PSOE recovery in big cities such as Madrid, Valencia or Zaragoza.  
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Antonio V
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« Reply #1076 on: July 07, 2016, 02:35:12 am »

So basically, swing from Podemos to PSOE in the North and swing from PSOE to PP in the South?
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Nanwe
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« Reply #1077 on: July 07, 2016, 03:39:28 am »

Variation in percentage of the vote for the PSOE between December 2015 and June 2016



Could you do the same for PSOE? I think they grew up in the urban areas but lost in its traditional strongholds, but a more in-depth picture would be interesting.

They lost seats in Andalucia apparently. Is it because of the infighting?

I think the PSOE loses in Andalusia, Extremadura and Castilla-La Mancha are due to the mobilisation of abstentionists in rural areas who voted for PP. It's possible that there was some small vote transfer from PSOE to PP in those places, or maybe PSOE lost some thousands of voters to abstention. Without provincial analysis of the vote it's hard to tell. The other noticeable thing is a slight PSOE recovery in big cities such as Madrid, Valencia or Zaragoza.  

Thanks! It is really interesting to see, indeed. It's rather surprising that the PSOE improved where it took a beating on December, essentially urban areas and peripheral areas where they are supposed to be very handicapped vis-à-vis C's and Podemos, and then that in the stronghold of the southern rural world they lose. It's surprising because their campaign really wasn't that good, I imagine there must be some effect of unhappy people from Podemos coming back because of the negotiations? Still wouldn't explain Andalucia. But this very bad results have weakened Susana Díaz and paradoxically (despite still losing 5 seats and 100k votes), strengthen Sánchez's position.
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jaichind
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« Reply #1078 on: July 07, 2016, 05:25:52 am »

Felipe Gonzalez Urges PSOE Not to Block Rajoy Minority Govt
Thursday, July 7, 2016 02:55 AM
by Charles Penty
(Bloomberg) -- Former Socialist Prime Minister Felipe Gonzalez said in an article in El Pais newspaper that if necessary his party should not block a minority govt led by acting PM Mariano Rajoy.
Socialists role should be as a “responsible opposition” to PP; party should not enter a coalition with Rajoy, Gonzalez says
Everyone agrees that third round of elections in Spain is not an option: Gonzalez
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Velasco
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« Reply #1079 on: July 07, 2016, 07:11:30 am »
« Edited: July 07, 2016, 07:25:15 am by Velasco »

So basically, swing from Podemos to PSOE in the North and swing from PSOE to PP in the South?

It's a bit more nuanced than that and I think it depends on the region or the province. At general level, it seems plausible that PP gains came mainly from Ciudadanos and abstentionists. The PP campaign has proved effective in attracting those groups of voters (and the appeal to the voters' fear was arguably boosted by the repercussion of Brexit in media). Also, the PP campaign was focused in rural areas and social groups where they are strong like retired people and pensioners. As well, they worked well in smaller provinces with seats depending on small vote swings. As I said before, I think that PP could have received some PSOE transfers in the rural areas of Southern Spain, but maybe they were small.

As for the UP loses, they are likely due to multiple factors. The bulk of the UP loses went to abstention, but in places like Madrid and urban areas like Zaragoza, Valencia and others it's very likely an UP-PSOE transfer. Maybe there was a small transfer in some northern regions. However, Podemos resisted better in Catalonia, Basque Country and Navarre. In Catalonia ECP lost some 80k voters due to the lower turnout, but in terms of vote share and seats stayed the same. In Basque Country and Navarre UP had little gains in vote share and won an extra seat in Biscay province at the expense of the PNV. The socialists had very similar results in Catalonia, losing one seat in Lleida province to the PP due to a very small vote swing. In the Basque Country and Navarre, they improved very slightly. In the Basque Country the leftwing nationalist EH Bildu lost nearly 2% of the vote share and in Navarre Geroa Bai plummeted. Such loses are attributable to the 'Podemos effect'.

Thanks! It is really interesting to see, indeed. It's rather surprising that the PSOE improved where it took a beating on December, essentially urban areas and peripheral areas where they are supposed to be very handicapped vis-à-vis C's and Podemos, and then that in the stronghold of the southern rural world they lose. It's surprising because their campaign really wasn't that good, I imagine there must be some effect of unhappy people from Podemos coming back because of the negotiations? Still wouldn't explain Andalucia. But this very bad results have weakened Susana Díaz and paradoxically (despite still losing 5 seats and 100k votes), strengthen Sánchez's position.

Maybe the repercussion of the negotiations had some effect in Madrid and other places. However, there are more factors that can explain the reasons why more than 1 million of the Podemos and IU voters in December didn't support UP in June. Among others, Podemos and IU voters unhappy with the alliance, the fear factor (PP campaign and Brexit), negative campaigning in media and at the justice courts (the week after the elections, the judge denied by the sixth time that lawsuit alleging illegal financing fro Venezuela and Iran due to blatant inconsistency, but it appeared in media during the campaign), voter fatigue and lack of electoral tension, etcetera. We'll have to wait the CIS post-election survey or other analyses.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1080 on: July 08, 2016, 09:12:27 am »

Leading party in the municipality of Madrid by census section:


The map is taken from here:

http://www.elconfidencial.com/espana/madrid/2016-06-25/calles-madrid-votos-pp-podemos-elecciones-generales_1222988/
 
There is a census section located in Salamanca neighbourhood where PP got 77.7% of the vote. The landmark building of this section is Amboage Palace, which was the provisional site of the City Hall during the Civil War and was sold to Italy in 1940 to become in the Italian embassy. A woman called Candela says that she supports PP because it has government experience, but she thinks that perhaps Rajoy must be replaced because everybody is against him. She shares the typical opinion of all PP voters: "there is corruption in all parties".

In Zurita street, located in the Lavapiés neighbourhood (District Centro), there is a site called Teatro del Barrio, the place where Podemos was launched. It's a cultural cooperative managed by actor and Podemos activist Alberto San Juan. UP got 47% in the census section that covers two blocks of Zurita streets featuring Teatro del Barrio and a venue called La Marabunta, a mix of café and bookstore where Podemos was born. Apparently, there is another census section in Lavapiés where UP got 56.7%.
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DavidB.
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« Reply #1081 on: July 09, 2016, 08:06:23 am »

The Madrid branch of IU tweeted this... "interesting" cartoon:



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Velasco
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« Reply #1082 on: July 09, 2016, 09:38:41 am »

The Madrid branch of IU tweeted this... "interesting" cartoon:

IU Madrid claims that the cartoon was not made by them as is conveyed to condemn "the role of Israel and the USA in geopolitics", and "in neither case to offend Jewish people". The cartoon features on top "Guerras No" ("No Wars") and calls people to demonstrate before the US embassy on July 10. President Obama is going to visit Spain and will land tonight in Seville. The Israel embassy claims that "the use of anti-semitic stereotypes infamous by their use in the blackest period of European History deserves the strongest condemnation" from "all the Spanish democratic forces".
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« Reply #1083 on: July 18, 2016, 04:54:47 pm »

The Madrid branch of IU tweeted this... "interesting" cartoon:

IU Madrid claims that the cartoon was not made by them as is conveyed to condemn "the role of Israel and the USA in geopolitics", and "in neither case to offend Jewish people". The cartoon features on top "Guerras No" ("No Wars") and calls people to demonstrate before the US embassy on July 10. President Obama is going to visit Spain and will land tonight in Seville. The Israel embassy claims that "the use of anti-semitic stereotypes infamous by their use in the blackest period of European History deserves the strongest condemnation" from "all the Spanish democratic forces".
At first I thought it was an Arab man and an Israeli man making out, which I found pretty cool ! Then it struck me and... it's not of very good taste...
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Velasco
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« Reply #1084 on: July 20, 2016, 01:34:37 am »

Ana Pastor (PP) elected new speaker of Congress with the support of Ciudadanos. Pío Escudero (PP) re-elected speaker of the Senate.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/07/19/inenglish/1468915263_766500.html

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In other news, CDC (Democratic Convergence of Catalonia) was renamed PDC (Catalan Democratic Party) on July 10.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Catalan_Democratic_Party


It's not of very good taste, indeed. It's just an inept cartoon that gives a good pretext to the other party's outrage.
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jaichind
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« Reply #1085 on: July 23, 2016, 08:01:01 am »

Spanish caretaker Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy studying formulas to dissolve parliament and call third election if there’s no government by September, El Mundo newspaper reports, citing unnamed sources.
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jaichind
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« Reply #1086 on: July 26, 2016, 04:45:13 am »

PP Would Win Up to 144 Seats in 3rd Elections: La Razon Poll

(Bloomberg) -- People’s Party would win up to 144 seats if third elections held in Spain from 137 seats now, La Razon reports, citing opinion poll by NC Report.
Socialists would win 83-85 seats vs 85 now; Unidos Podemos up to 72 seats vs 71 now; Ciudadanos 30-31 seats vs 32
Voter participation would drop to 61% from 66%
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Velasco
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« Reply #1087 on: July 28, 2016, 06:30:45 am »

King Felipe begun talks with party leaders this week. There is an awful sense of deja vu.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/07/26/inenglish/1469521499_441254.html?rel=mas

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This morning Felipe VI met with C's leader Albert Rivera, who proposed two alternatives to the king: PP-PSOE-C's coalition without Mariano Rajoy or PP minority government with the PSOE abstention in the investiture. The first alternative was dismissed by Rajoy yesterday, when he gave clear expression of his desire to stay. The second alternative has been dismissed by PSOE leader Pedro Sánchez, who refuses to concede abstention. Albert Rivera opposes to vote for the acting PM, so the gridlock continues.

The meeeting between King Felipe and Pablo Iglesias already took place.

In other news, the Parliament of Catalonia defies Constitutional Court by passing a text that sets the agenda for the "disconnection' from Spain. JxSí and the CUP voted in favour, while PP and C's MPs left the chamber in protest, PSC members stayed in but didn't vote and CSP voted against. Catalan premier Carles Puigdemont will face a motion of confidence on September 28.
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jaichind
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« Reply #1088 on: July 31, 2016, 09:28:02 am »

Spain Prefers Socialist Abstention to Avoid New Vote: Pais Poll
 (Bloomberg) -- Opinion poll show 66% of Spaniards would prefer Socialists to abstain in confidence vote to allow Acting Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy to govern rather than hold new elections, El Pais reports.
70% think Rajoy should step aside if doing so would facilitate the formation of a government, newspaper reports, citing poll by Metroscopia
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Velasco
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« Reply #1089 on: August 01, 2016, 01:10:18 pm »
« Edited: August 01, 2016, 01:18:19 pm by Velasco »

Mariano Rajoy ready to negotiate 125 points with PSOE and Ciudadanos, says El País

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/08/01/inenglish/1470041109_608806.html

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Constitutional Court suspends the resolution made by the Parliament of Catalonia for the "disconnection" and the independence. Rajoy's administration demanded the Court to deal with speaker Carme Forcadell by means of criminal law, for being a "person clearly involved" who leads an institution (the Catalan Parliament) that "violates" the constitutional state. The Court just ruled to notice personally premier Carles Puigdemont, Mrs Forcadell and other officials their eventual responsibility in case the suspension is ignored.

Basque Country and Galicia will hold elections together on September 25.
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Nanwe
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« Reply #1090 on: August 01, 2016, 03:13:35 pm »

Spain Prefers Socialist Abstention to Avoid New Vote: Pais Poll
 (Bloomberg) -- Opinion poll show 66% of Spaniards would prefer Socialists to abstain in confidence vote to allow Acting Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy to govern rather than hold new elections, El Pais reports.
70% think Rajoy should step aside if doing so would facilitate the formation of a government, newspaper reports, citing poll by Metroscopia

The problem with Metroscopia's poll is that basically the wording is very treacherous.

The question is "If in order to prevent the repetition of the elections, the only alternative would be for the PSOE to abstain and let Rajoy govern in exchange of a series of agreed to reform, what would you prefer?

a) PSOE abstention
b) Electoral repetition

I think that in judicial terms, that's known as called leading the witness.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1091 on: August 03, 2016, 08:52:52 am »

I think that in judicial terms, that's known as called leading the witness.

In any case, the bias of this poll is according to El País editorial line. The paper is advocating for PSOE abstention and criticizing Pedro Sánchez, claiming that his resistance is irresponsible and questioning his capacity to lead the party. Some people in PSOE is waiting for the right time to draw the sword against Sánchez. Try to guess with whom is going to side PRISA (the editor of El País). Mariano Rajoy must be very pleased.
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jeron
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« Reply #1092 on: August 10, 2016, 08:45:58 am »

I think that in judicial terms, that's known as called leading the witness.

In any case, the bias of this poll is according to El País editorial line. The paper is advocating for PSOE abstention and criticizing Pedro Sánchez, claiming that his resistance is irresponsible and questioning his capacity to lead the party. Some people in PSOE is waiting for the right time to draw the sword against Sánchez. Try to guess with whom is going to side PRISA (the editor of El País). Mariano Rajoy must be very pleased.

Last time i read El Pais, it wasn't as clear about this as you write here. Yes they think that PSOE should possibly abstain, but they also wrote that some of the policies proposed by PP are unacceptable for PSOE.

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Nanwe
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« Reply #1093 on: August 12, 2016, 07:34:48 am »

A bit of an (admittedly outdate but useful, data is from 2014) social analysis of how the broad Spanish middle class votes. Data from here: http://www.europeansocialsurvey.org/download.html?file=ESS7e02&y=2014, work is not mine, by the way.

(Sectorial) Social Class and Voting in Spain

The graphic below allow us to see which social classes are over- or underrepresented in the various main Spanish political parties. National average is 0.


The PP is over-represented amongst small businessmen and to a lesser degree amongst the group of managers and administrators.

The PSOE is markedly the party of industrial production workers, the social class traditionally linked to the social-democratic parties, but also to the right-wing populist parties in other countries. This group is one of the so-called 'losers of globalisation'.

Podemos particularly attracts the socio-cultural liberal professionals, a category that also tends to be over-represented in the new left or green parties in various European countries.

Ciudadanos is the most voted party by managers and administrators, although it is also over-represented amongst technical professionals.

The results seem to confirm a new division in the salaried middle class between the socio-cultural professionals and the administrators and managers that is also observable in other countrues, like Germany, Great Britain, Sweden or Switzerland. An individual's position in the national work structure seems to be elated to political behaviour in Spain too, although without taking into account the strong duality of the Spanish labour market.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1094 on: August 20, 2016, 07:35:29 am »

PP spokesman on the investiture negotiations between PP and Ciudadanos:
 "This is the beginning of a love affair"

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/08/19/inenglish/1471612658_302672.html

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At present Mariano Rajoy has 170 votes: PP, C's and the Canary Coalition. No change of stance from PSOE:

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jaichind
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« Reply #1095 on: August 22, 2016, 06:17:23 am »

http://www.elmundo.es/espana/2016/08/22/57ba0c4822601df33c8b459e.html

As much as 54% of PSOE voters believe party should abstain if PP and C reach a pact for formation of Spanish govt, El Mundo reports, citing opinion poll. 55% of PSOE voters prefer PP-led govt now instead of third round of elections.
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Velasco
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« Reply #1096 on: August 30, 2016, 09:52:15 pm »

Mariano Rajoy expected to fail in first investiture attempt,

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/08/30/inenglish/1472566760_282741.html

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Key regional elections are scheduled on September 25 in Galicia and Basque Country. Mariano Rajoy hopes to win a big victory for PP in Galicia. In the Basque Country the ruling PNV might need both PSOE and PP to secure a majority in regional parliament. After these elections, a second investiture attempt could take place in October. By then, pressure on PSOE leadership to abstain could increase. Depending on results, even Basque nationalists could reconsider their vote. There still exists a very remote possibility of a PSOE-UP coalition government with the support of Basque and Catalan nationalists. In case no candidate is elected, a new election would take place on Christmas Day. In order to avoid that eventuality, PSOE proposed to reduce the duration of the electoral campaign from two weeks to just one. 
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Velasco
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« Reply #1097 on: August 31, 2016, 01:37:50 pm »

Mr Rajoy fails:  Yes 170; No 180

Acting PM reveals during the investiture debate that Colombian government and the FARC will sign their peace deal on September 26, a date that should be kept in secret. The news has been received with some perplexity in Bogota. Shame.
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jaichind
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« Reply #1098 on: September 05, 2016, 08:19:59 am »

http://www.larazon.es/espana/pp-y-c-s-sumarian-mayoria-absoluta-CD13454042#

PP would win up to 146 seats if third elections held in Spain from 137 seats now, La Razon reports, citing opinion poll by NC Report.  PSOE would win 82-85 seats vs 85 now; Podemos 67-70 seats vs 71 now, C 30-31 seats vs 32
In theory, PP and C will then have majority.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #1099 on: September 05, 2016, 11:40:18 am »

Any news on the vote of confidence that the Catalan government was due to hold?
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