Spanish elections and politics

[Zinneke]

I wonder the remaining traditional Left in Asturias will switch from PSOE/IU to Podemos? Could be a decisive factor.

[Zinneke]

Forgive my ignorance, but what is Podemos' exact position on a Catalan referendum?

EDIT : I have just seen that the vast majority of their newfound supportters in Catalonia are from the PSC. So I imagine they are not in favour of a referendum.

[Zinneke]

The vaudeville continues, overshadowing any other relevant issue:

"Catalan parliament passes motion declaring start of secession process":

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/11/09/inenglish/1447067955_007589.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Didn't the CUP explicitly say they would only support independence if 50% of the electorate voted in favoor of secessionists?

I think this is just a measure to get a better bargaining position. The Castillans will not take it like that though. It will no doubt toughen PP's and C's stances, while Podemos and PSOE will be seen as weak moderate heroes on the issue.

They've handed the general election agenda on a plate to the polarised views on peripheral independence. 

[Zinneke]

El Pais were leading today with a story on Rajoy backing a PP-C's coalition, which I think is what put people off oranges. Why would you buy oranges only to realise they are filled with bland, tastless water?  

I'm going to go ahead and predict a PP minority government.

Scholarly text on Ciudadanos, in case anyone's interested: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13608746.2015.1119646

Thanks, I think I'll write a paper on the rise of post-nationalist parties, using FDF, Ciudadanos, D66. Any others like Ciudadanos in Europe?

[Zinneke]

No, I mean the Belgian party. They are now called Défi and are mainly Brussels-based. Used to be part of our mainstream centre-right.

[Zinneke]

What is the difference in political philosophy between Podemos and IU?? Wouldnt it have made sense for IU to simply fold or merge with Podemos?

Podemos refuses to acknowledge their political philosophy. It remains part of a populist current that has no political philosophy, and hence this gives it a certain degree of freedom to react on all issues, compared to the rigid Izquierda.

You see a similar phenomenon with the far right, whose political philosophy died or lost credibility with WW2. This initially accounted for their dismal scores but now that electoral realignment is a thing, it allows them to pick certain sections of the electorate through discourse either taken from other political factions or adapted to modern issues such as globalisation.

Like Nanwe puts it, it has to do with marketing.

But as far as I know Podemos and Izquierda Unida really don't get in each other's way as much as, say, Syriza and the KKE.

If you want core ideological differences, Podemos have a right-wing in the party dedicated more to democratisation and local decision making and social movements, while the left-wing backs this on Gramscist, Eurocommunist "reclaim the working class" grounds. Izquierda are sort of decaying Trotskyists. I haven't read much about them but they rely on their industrial working class base alone and seem proud of that.

[Zinneke]

Options:
- PP + PSOE; both corrupt, power-hungry parties that want to ensure the government's "job machine" will stay within the same hands
- PP + C's + some nationalist MPs (not all parties have to be in the govt, could be minority)
- PSOE + Podemos + C's (not all parties have to be in the govt, could be minority)
- New elections?

PP and C will not ally with nationalists. They just signed a pact reiterating their opposition to Catalan devolution, which is what harmed C's in peripheries like Andalucia. Anybody who jumps into bed with Rajoy is a pariah to nationalists.

[Zinneke]

From the Spanish TV network:


Who are IU-UP?

Izquierda Unida and an affiliate.

Funny how they form the colours of the Republican flag.

[Zinneke]

How many of the 9 seats from ERC-Catalunya so que ES pot on the list are part of Podemos (the latter, so que ES pot is Podemos in Catalonia)?

[Zinneke]

Guys, nationalists cannot be separated into left or right camps, and this isn't like Scandinavian election where all the left or right aggregate. This is a first in Spain and we should treat it as such. There is no way the left-right divide stands though.

[Zinneke]

PSOE+Podemos 160 (42.71%) PP-C 162 (42.57%)

It is interesting how close the vote shares are as well.

Again, it doesn't work like that though. I thought the whole point of these elections was the end of bipartisanship. TVE are just stuck in their paradigm.

Can I also have a source where Rivera states PP is his preferred coalition partner.

[Zinneke]

PSOE+Podemos 160 (42.71%) PP-C 162 (42.57%)

It is interesting how close the vote shares are as well.

Again, it doesn't work like that though. I thought the whole point of these elections was the end of bipartisanship. TVE are just stuck in their paradigm.

Can I also have a source where Rivera states PP is his preferred coalition partner.

Well, lets accept that it is much more likely Podemos will ally with PSOE and it is much more likely that C will ally with PP.  I am not saying it is destined to take place.

No, it really isn't though, unless you follow TVE, who are still stuck in bipartisan logic.

[Zinneke]

What are the Basques Nationalists main aims? I find it very odd how quiet the Basque areas have been irt the looming breakup of the Spanish state...

They already fulfilled them, largely thanks to the ETA. The PNV would like a federal system that allows them to represent Basque interests only in national politics. Bildu want a socialist (or non-neoliberal) state in the same way CC and Esquerra Republicana.

As long as they keep their extra national politics, administration and policing they will be happy though.

[Zinneke]

With 99.43% counted:

PP+C's 163 seats (42.64%)         PSOE+Podemos 159 seats (42.67%)    

If these groupings are posted one more time I am going to break the keyboard...

Here are all the other possibilities that are actually more probable than these pre-set alliances you've taken from TVE...

• We head for new elections
• PP-PSOE
• Podemos-Ciu-PSOE

They already fulfilled them, largely thanks to the ETA.

WTF !!!

Similar situation to Northern Ireland. You have terrorists on your doorstep that you do not want, just find a solution that involves devolution. The violence dies down, and the problem is half-solved.

[Zinneke]

Please don't try to build theories on subjects you ignore.

I'm simply isolating the variables. Both Catalonia and Basques had strong nationalist political presence in Spain after Franco's fall. Obviously their nationalisms are different, but we can agree that Basque autonomy is at least deeper than Catalunya's? Why do you think that is, given that voters have voted for similar nationalist parties in both communities since the fall of Franco? It wouldn't be because ETA were going around the place murdering people and the Spanish government knew they had to put an end to it eventually rather than fund organizations like the GAL. That's one of the few variables that differs from Catalunya's.

I am not condoning violent protest btw.

EDIT : Just let me clarify as I was on a mobile device : somebody asked why the Basques are staying quiet (they're not, since so many voted for Podemos, who clearly want constitutional reform) and what goals Basque nationalists have. I put forward the idea that Basques were actually happy with their level of autonomy at this moment, because their demands had been met. Their demands were met and accepted largely due to the violent nature of the regional problems surrounding the Basque country, created by the ETA's presence throughout the years, whereas Catalunya has had a more gradualist approach to identity-rebuilding, devolution of powers to the Catalan parliament and autonomy. There is nothing outrageous about this.

[Zinneke]

 I imagine Podemos struggled in Andalucia because they are painted by PSOE as a threat to the traditional  welfare state as facilitators to its federalisation. We have a similar thing with our socialist party in Wallonia. People who benefit from government aid (and European aid) do not want multi-level governance.

Not sure how C's bombed in Catalunya, considering how they scored really well in the regionals there. PP were last too...

[Zinneke]

Lmao CuP

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-spain-catalonia-idUKKBN0UA0NQ20151227

Yes, the pròces has reached mathematic-defying proportions... It's ridiculous. It seems rather likely that Catalonia will have to have elections again. And the nationalists might take a huge beating.

Why would the nationalists take a beating? Especially in light of national (i.e Madrid-based) politics?

[Zinneke]

Lmao CuP

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-spain-catalonia-idUKKBN0UA0NQ20151227

Yes, the pròces has reached mathematic-defying proportions... It's ridiculous. It seems rather likely that Catalonia will have to have elections again. And the nationalists might take a huge beating.

Why would the nationalists take a beating? Especially in light of national (i.e Madrid-based) politics?

Because they did in the general election and because the few polls there are seem to indicate so. I don't mean they'll crush but well.

But like you said in a later post, Catalans don't seem to want to vote for national parties at a federal level, instead preferring Podemos/PSOE. It seems like the potential switch is between CiU and Erc, which is what confused me when you said the nationalists would struggle. I'm wondering how the Catalan electorate are reacting to the current deadlock in Madrid, that is focused on them? Is it hardening their position?

[Zinneke]

http://noticias.lainformacion.com/politica/partidos/un-documento-firmado-por-5-ministros-pide-a-rajoy-irse-para-que-el-pp-gobierne_NLvtzK6RmxOpowQjDmTQ57/

You must be logged in to read this quote.

"Soy aquí porque somos un equipo" and then she ousts Rajoy of the presidency. Hmm?

[Zinneke]

Just a friendly reminder that this is the political class 50% of Catalonia want instead of the one in Madrid.

Also, doesn't the CUP have to pass this agreement through their party? I mean why even bother going to consult your party and blocking the whole process when you agree to do this deal that cripples your party? To get rid of one individual? Oh wait, let me guess, because they will be annihilated in any near future election anyway, so they might as well gamble on power and potential unilateral independence?

This is the glorious Catalan independence we've all been waiting for then.

How will the CUP rebels react?

[Zinneke]

But if what you said is true, and there is no incentive for the nationalist parties to go into new elections, then it makes more sense, particularly as the CUP are bordering on implosion.

[Zinneke]

Oh, and apparently there has been some controversy about a speech Puigdemont gave in 2013 where he pledged to "expel the invaders from Catalonia, as they were in Belgium (? - I can only guess this is some kind of reference to Flanders)

I'm guessing he meant to refer to the Netherlands.

He could also be referring the expulsion of francophones from Leuven.

[Zinneke]

Ada Colau has broken with Podemos' ranks after Iglesias upset her by copying up to the PSOE. I don't understand what her strategy was in the first place. PSOE was the only viable coalition partner on a national level, and they haven't even ended negotiations.

Brand Podemos is in the gutter in Catalunya according to El Pais (lol). I do wonder what the key difference between Podem, EUiA and the ERC is in the region. Different mafias I guess.

[Zinneke]

Can someone explain to me why Si que es pot bombed in the regional elections but has now propelled themselves to second in the polls? I thought Catalans were voting Podem nationally for the same reasons they have been voting PSC/PSOE nationally : these parties are more likely/willing to compromise. But it seems the Podemos wave has hit Catalunya.

[Zinneke]

What about the Catalonia situation?

It's as confusing as ever. The Catalan government is facing problems to pass this year's budget, that Oriol Junqueras (the ERC leader and vicepremier in charge of the economic portfolio) deems as the one with the most social awareness in history. Despite that claim JxSí has been left alone by the CUP, whose grassroots voted a couple of days ago to break the deal with the ruling coalition. Rumours of a new election take shape, by the moment ruled out by regional government. In the JxSí alliance ERC and CDC distance themselves. CDC is in a process of re-foundation and their grassroots and cadres don't like the measures Junqueras wants to implement in order to please the CUP (in vain), contrary to the party's economic philosophy. ERC wants to become the main force of the Catalan nationalism and make plans of future alliances with En Comú Podem.

In Barcelona, Mayoress Ada Colau is facing similar problems with the CUP to pass the budget. Recently Barcelona en Comú and PSC reached an agreement and the Catalan socialists have joined the local government. BComú and PSC are lacking a majority and need the support of ERC and the CUP. The eviction of some squatters in the Gràcia district and subsequent incidents and havoc have created controversy. Local government condemned the violent incidents, while the CUP supports the evicted unconditionally and links the police action with support to local and regional budgets.

If a new election happens in Catalonia, would ERC, CiU and the ICV nationalists (Romeva) stay in a joint list?