Brazilian presidential and general elections 2022 (1st round: October 2nd, 2nd round: October 30th)

[Pres Mike]

Go Lula!

[Pres Mike]

Lula lost three elections before winning his 4th one in 2002. What did he do different? He appealed to moderates and the middle class.

[Pres Mike]

Today, PT and PSB finally announced their agreement. It's official: Geraldo Alckmin will be Lula's running mate. Lula and Alckmin were the candidates in the runoff in the 2006 presidential election. It's as if Mitt Romney was Joe Biden's running mate in 2020.
The intent of the Lula/Alckmin ticket is showing that Lula vs Bolsonaro won't be a left vs right contest, but a civilized vs barbarians contest. The alliance between Lula and Alckmin is the alliance between the civilized left and the civilized right.

In the last decade, progressive parties usually tried to avoid 2 white men tickets. But due to the urgent need of defeating Bolsonaro, this concern was not discussed even inside the left.

There are so many parallels between the 2020 US election and 2022 Brazilian election.

You have a well known, fairly popular and universally recognized figure seeking to take out a far right incumbent. The opposition is trying to appeal to both the left, center and disgruntled center right disgusted by the incumbent.

Both Biden and Lula should have ran in the previous elections (2016/2018) and probably would have won those elections. Both did not run because of BS reasons (Hillary taking over the DNC, Lula going to jail over carwash). Both are very old.

[Pres Mike]

One more opinion polled by DATAFOLHA:

Racial quotas in college
50% support
34% oppose

53% of Black Brazilians support it, a larger share in comparison to Mixed Brazilians (52%) and White Brazilians (50%). The younger, higher income and higher education levels of the demographic, the higher the support for this tends to be.

81,4% say racial discrimination should be discussed in schools. 93,7% say Public schools should respect ALL religious practices (which includes Afro-Brazilian religions).

Do you think Lula will win in the first round?

[Pres Mike]

What are the odds that Lula wins in first round?

What are the odds Bolso tries a coup?

What are the odds a coup works? Can the US do anything to stop it?

[Pres Mike]

What are the odds that Lula wins in first round?

What are the odds Bolso tries a coup?

What are the odds a coup works? Can the US do anything to stop it?

Close to zero, the public and institutional mood is in a different direction, sick from Bolsonaro. US can immediately recognize the electoral results as soon as they come out and congratulate Lula as the elected president, that’s it.

Biden could withdraw the American ambassador. He could also sanction any military regime 

[Pres Mike]

Why are the results taking so long?

[Pres Mike]

Why are the results taking so long?

Long lines in some places, there are still people voting.

Expectations when final results?

[Pres Mike]

Only 26% of the vote counted after 2 hours ... this is pretty much slower than previous years.

Brazil decided to copy New York and Alaska with slow reporting lol

[Pres Mike]

No chance of Lula winning in the first round?

[Pres Mike]

When’s the next update?

[Pres Mike]

Yeah Lula should easily break 48 at this point. May not even want to rule out 49 or better.

But 50.01% is out?

[Pres Mike]

Bolsonaro at 44.7% with 86% in.  The last 10% of the Brazil count is always brutal for the Right.  I figure that this means Bolsonaro will be at 43.1% at the end.  This would put Lula most likely around 48.3%

What percentage of the last 10% is Lula expected to win

According to my math, he’d need 80% of that last 8% to be counted to make it 50.01

[Pres Mike]

If I did the math right, Lula has the most votes directly casted for him than any other human in history right? This is his sixth president election stretching to 1989

Not so fun fact, runner up is Trump with 136 million votes between 2016 and 2020. Obama is third at 134 million

[Pres Mike]

If I did the math right, Lula has the most votes directly casted for him than any other human in history right? This is his sixth president election stretching to 1989

Not so fun fact, runner up is Trump with 136 million votes between 2016 and 2020. Obama is third at 134 million

Putin has over 190 million in his four elections, depending on how much fraud you assume to be going on there.

I don’t think Putin counts because Russia’s elections weren’t fair or competitive

[Pres Mike]

The polls weren’t really off

The final polling average had Lula at 45%. Bolso at 37%. Tebet and Gomez both at 5%. 2% for everyone else and 6% undecided

Lula got 48%. Bolso got 43%. Tebet got 4% and Gomez got 3%. Everyone else got 2%.

That means the undecided vote was really Bolso, but because of the “Tory Effect” pollsters missed. Pollsters correctly got Lula right since the last few polls showed Lula growing because of a drift from Gomez

https://www.as-coa.org/articles/poll-tracker-brazils-2022-presidential-election

Thoughts?

[Pres Mike]

Looking at the polling trendlines, Lula ended up exactly as expected, while Bolsonaro overperformed by around 7 points. So it seems like he swept the undecideds and got the votes of a few people who said they'd vote third party (Gomes underperformed by 2 points and Tebet by 1). Perhaps because of a social desirability bias against telling pollsters you support Bolsonaro? Brazilian posters let me know if that's a thing.

The final polling average had Lula at 45%. Bolsonaro at 37%. Tebet and Gomez both at 5%. Rest of the parties got 2%. Undecided at 6%

The results were Lula at 48%, Bolso at 45%, Tibet at 4% and Gomez at 3%. The rest of the parties were 2%

Looks like Bolso sweep the undecided vote. Perhaps Brazil also suffers from the “Tory Effect” where voters are wary of telling pollsters they are voting conservative.

The last 2 polls had Lula rising from Gomez voters switching which did happen.

I expect Lula to win 52-55% in round 2. He’ll get the Gomez vote and maybe another point from Tibet. I’m not an expert on Brazil politics so I can’t speak on the 2% between the minor parties

[Pres Mike]

So for those of us who don't follow Brazilian politics particularly closely, what are your Collective guesstimates for the likely outcome of the runoff?

Most likely outcome at the moment is 52-48% Lula win

That said, Lula winning up to 55% wouldn’t be out the question.

[Pres Mike]

I never bought Bolsonaro would be under 40%, though he even outdid my prediction here. Polls underestimated him. Sounds familiar, doesn't it?

This really feels like US 2020 redux.

Brazil politics mirror American politics greatly

The progressive party keeps winning elections under a charismatic leader. His successor, a women, is politically weaker. The conservatives paint her as a devil until a wanna be fascist wins power, sweeping out the old conservative guard. A monster of their own making.

A respected elder statement runs to restore normalcy only for the fascist to over perform polls

[Pres Mike]

Looking at these results it seems had Lula not run then Bolsonaro would have won re-election in the second round.

Probably. Just like how Trump would have won re-election against anyone but Biden

[Pres Mike]

When do we know results?

[Pres Mike]

Congratulations to President Elect Lula for saving Brazil from fascism and saving the lungs of the planet.

After spending time in jail wrong accused, this has to be satisfying. Plus between his six elections more votes have been casted for Lula than any other person in human history!

[Pres Mike]

lula wins barely and the polls were rigged (maybe same in ameirca?)
i never thought it was so competitive
i remember seeing lula +16 or  something a month ago before round 1

The Lula +16 polls had a dozen candidates and a huge undecided vote. If Lula polled 48% and Bolso was 32%, that would be +16.

The first round polls were accurate about Lula totals. They predicted around 47-50%. They were off for Bolso. They predicted 32-36%, when he got 43%. He basically ate up the undecided vote. Like America, people who told pollsters they were undecided probably just didn’t want to look racist

[Pres Mike]

no its not suspended for a few years.

Well, then this election is essentially meaningless.

That’s not true. Lula can still protect the Amazon rainforest.

[Pres Mike]

Well glad the absolute worst outcome has been avoided. Still, not exactly a result to fill us with confidence about the future. We'll see how things go in the next 4 years, I guess (hoping Bolsonaro doesn't do a coup).

The military already said they won’t. The Supreme Court said they won’t allow.

The US military has extensive contacts with the Brazilian military. US secretary of defense Lloyd Austin has called several times over the last few months.

Current consensus by international experts. There’s no evidence to suggest the coup or the military will support one.

What I am afraid of is a repeat of Jan 6th by Bolso supporters as a FU to Lula, spurred on by Bolso himself