2020 AZ Senate Megathread: Kelly's Race to Lose

[Webnicz]

Looking forward to 2020!!!


McSally would have had a better chance running again in 2020 while ducey appointed a place holder. People in AZ are livid right now. The optics are so bad that this definitely pushes AZ up there with Colorado And Alabama on most likely to flip

[MT Treasurer]

This is Lean D in 2020, the only seats more likely to flip are CO and maybe AL.

[Dr. Arch]

Looking forward to 2020!!!


McSally would have had a better chance running again in 2020 while ducey appointed a place holder. People in AZ are livid right now. The optics are so bad that this definitely pushes AZ up there with Colorado And Alabama on most likely to flip

Yep, I could imagine. The Republican party is great at power grabs and ignoring the will of the voters.

[MAINEiac4434]

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

Gallego is going to win by like five points.

[ON Progressive]

Eh McSally should win in 2020 because Trump should win AZ but it is going to be the second best pickup opportunity for Dems imo

Knowing your track record with Arizona predictions, that means Trump and McSally will lose in 2020. Sounds great to me.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Wasn’t former Sen. Kyl appointed for this seat ? What happened ?

Kyl was never planning on holding the seat until the special.

So why did he agree to the appointment if he’s only serving a few months ?

To put Brett Kavanaugh on the Supreme Court.

[MAINEiac4434]

Wasn’t former Sen. Kyl appointed for this seat ? What happened ?

Kyl was never planning on holding the seat until the special.

So why did he agree to the appointment if he’s only serving a few months ?

His job before becoming Senator was literally Help The Senate Confirm Brett Kavanaugh.

[JMT]

Who will be senior Senator from Arizona? McSally or Sinema?

It's been said above, but Sinema will be Senior Senator due to the number of terms she's had in the House (3), compared to McSally (2).

I could be wrong, but I don’t believe that is true IF McSally gets sworn in before January 3rd, which is possible because Kyl is stepping down effective December 31. If McSally gets sworn in before Sinema, McSally is the senior senator because she would become a senator first, and therefore be more senior.  Sinema would only become the Senior senator if both McSally and Sinema were sworn in on the same day (because Sinemas 3 house terms outrank McSally’s 2 terms) or if McSally was sworn in AFTER Sinema (which is very unlikely).

[Zaybay]

What 2016 is pointing out is actually true, sitting governors have a very high success rate when it comes to running for senate, around 80% in the recent political era. What people are conflating here is former governors, who have a rather low success rate, but then again, so do former senators, former representatives, and former AGs. Really, if you are still in the public sphere, you have a much higher chance of moving up than if you have been out of the political arena for an extensive period of time.

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

Gallego is going to win by like five points.

Grant Woods and Mark Kelly would be better candidates.

Gallego is probably too left wing for Arizona.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Not unprecedented. In 1968 Ted Stevens unsuccessfully seek the GOP nomination for Senate, but when Bob Bartlett died in office in December, he got appointed to the other seat.

Still a dumb move on Ducey's part, though.

[AudmanOut]

He should've appointed a placeholder and leave Republican voters to decide who will be the person  they want to defend this seat.
Appointing a loser only a few weeks after she lost, is indeed a huge middle finger to the electorate.

Ducey hasn't given up his own asperations to get to the Senate after finishing his 2nd Term as Governor.

He has some Options now especially if McSally loses in 2020. He could then run in 2022 or run against Sinema in 2024.

It's getting harder every year with Arizona fast moving to the left.

Not for a Popular Governor like Ducey.

Everyone said it would be hard for Rick Scott to beat Bill Nelson. He's now a Senator-elect and AZ is still more Republican than Florida is.

I can see Ducey running in 2022 when his Term is up if McSally loses in 2020. If she wins he could run against Sinema.

Florida is moving to the right.

Arizona is moving to the left.

Doesn't matter if you're Popular.

If you look back. Since the 2008 Elections Democratic Governors, Republican Governors and Purple State Governors alike have a very high success rate getting elected.

Governor Mark Warner (now a Senator)
Governor Tim Kaine (now a Senator)
Governor Jeanne Shaheen (now a Senator)
Governor Maggie Hassan (now a Senator)
Governor Angus King (now a Senator)
Governor Mike Rounds (now a Senator)
Governor John Hoeven (now a Senator)
Governor Rick Scott (now a Senator)

and that's just a few. The Senate itself has a lot of former Governors right now.

There are also a bunch that have tried and failed. Jim Gilmore, George Allen, Bob Kerrey, Linda Lingle, Evan Bayh, Tommy Thompson, Phil Bredesen, Ted Strickland, Charlie Crist, Ronnie Musgrove, Mike Castle. Though I agree Ducey wold have a good chance because he's popular and sitting governors have a much higher success rate than former ones.

Well, in the List I gave all except for Jeanne Shaheen were sitting Governors when they won their Senate Seats. Shaheen was the only excemption who lost. She was reelected in 2000, decided to run for Senate when Bob Smith retired, lost to John E. Sununu in 2002 before beating him in 2008.

Tim kaine was also out of office when he won, also yeah sitting governors do better then former governors, hopefully that bodes well for senator Steve bullock in 2020! (Assuming he runs)

[Zaybay]

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

Gallego is going to win by like five points.

Grant Woods and Mark Kelly would be better candidates.

Gallego is probably too left wing for Arizona.

Nah, people dont vote based on ideology. There really is no threat to running Left Wing challengers or Centrist challengers, both preform relatively the same.

[MAINEiac4434]

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

Gallego is going to win by like five points.

Grant Woods and Mark Kelly would be better candidates.

Gallego is probably too left wing for Arizona.

Let me believe

[_]

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

Gallego is going to win by like five points.

Grant Woods and Mark Kelly would be better candidates.

Gallego is probably too left wing for Arizona.

Let me believe

[ηєω ƒяσηтιєя]

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

Gallego is going to win by like five points.

Grant Woods and Mark Kelly would be better candidates.

Gallego is probably too left wing for Arizona.

Nah, people dont vote based on ideology. There really is no threat to running Left Wing challengers or Centrist challengers, both preform relatively the same.

Not true. Sinema won thanks in large part to her moderate image.

[AudmanOut]

Who will be senior Senator from Arizona? McSally or Sinema?

It's been said above, but Sinema will be Senior Senator due to the number of terms she's had in the House (3), compared to McSally (2).

Weird way of doing it, sinema should be senior senator because she won, not because she has been in Congress longer.

[ON Progressive]

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

Gallego is going to win by like five points.

Grant Woods and Mark Kelly would be better candidates.

Gallego is probably too left wing for Arizona.

Nah, people dont vote based on ideology. There really is no threat to running Left Wing challengers or Centrist challengers, both preform relatively the same.

Not true. Sinema won thanks in large part to her moderate image.

Sinema won because she was a Democratic candidate in a Trump +3 state in a D+9 midterm. There’s no reason to believe a liberal like Gallego couldn’t have performed about the same.

[Zaybay]

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

Gallego is going to win by like five points.

Grant Woods and Mark Kelly would be better candidates.

Gallego is probably too left wing for Arizona.

Nah, people dont vote based on ideology. There really is no threat to running Left Wing challengers or Centrist challengers, both preform relatively the same.

Not true. Sinema won thanks in large part to her moderate image.

She preformed almost exactly the same to the national swing, not to mention the fact that Democrats of all stripes, from Blue Dogs to CPCs, preformed almost exactly the same, with fewer exceptions. There is little proof to suggest that Sinema won thanks to her moderate image, especially since she was painted as a Left Wing anti-War crazy the entire election.

[MT Treasurer]

Eh McSally should win in 2020 because Trump should win AZ but it is going to be the second best pickup opportunity for Dems imo

Knowing your track record with Arizona predictions, that means Trump and McSally will lose in 2020. Sounds great to me.

Yeah, I don’t get why Republicans are so confident about AZ. It’s definitely not a "Likely R" state, unless you’ve been in a coma since 2004. I could see McSally and Trump losing AZ even if Trump narrowly wins reelection.

Then again, the same people also consider VA a swing state, so why am I even surprised?

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/greggiroux/status/1075085168019410944

[Free Bird]

Wasn’t former Sen. Kyl appointed for this seat ? What happened ?

Kyl was never planning on holding the seat until the special.

So why did he agree to the appointment if he’s only serving a few months ?

He was literally just a warm body to vote for Kavanaugh...also he probably would've agreed to stay the remainder of the 2 years if McSally had won, let's be real. He had that worked out with Ducey before he was announced in all likelihood, and that's why he was ambiguous about his intentions during his acceptance speech/press conference thing.

[AudmanOut]

Eh McSally should win in 2020 because Trump should win AZ but it is going to be the second best pickup opportunity for Dems imo

Knowing your track record with Arizona predictions, that means Trump and McSally will lose in 2020. Sounds great to me.

Yeah, I don’t get why Republicans are so confident about AZ. It’s definitely not a "Likely R" state, unless you’ve been in a coma since 2004. I could see McSally and Trump losing AZ even if Trump narrowly wins reelection.

Then again, the same people also consider VA a swing state, so why am I even surprised?

R hack so gonna R hack, you are probably the only republican poster who isn’t/wasn’t overly optimistic about 2018/2020.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

This is the top echelons of the political elite overriding the will of the people of Arizona, this is one of many things that every day validates Manchin's quote, this is exactly why Washington sucks!

[AudmanOut]

So when is Cook going to move it to Likely or Safe R because of incumbency?

5:00