2020 AZ Senate Megathread: Kelly's Race to Lose

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

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Did he not think that sentence through before he said that?

I think Ducey was too busy daydreaming about winning the seat from the Democrat in 2022

Why? He would probably lose in 2022, especially if trump wins reelection.

Probably thinks he can pull a Rick Scott.

[MAINEiac4434]

https://twitter.com/RubenGallego/status/1075066876139515904

King

[Calthrina950]

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

Gallego is going to win by like five points.

Wtf no

That won't happen. Even Sinema only won by 2. Gallego would probably lose by the same margin.

[pppolitics]

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

Gallego is going to win by like five points.

Wtf no

That won't happen. Even Sinema only won by 2. Gallego would probably lose by the same margin.

Ruben Gallego is too liberal

Democrats have to offer moderate Republicans and indepenents a palatable alternative.

Grant Woods is a good candidate.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

Gallego is going to win by like five points.

Wtf no

That won't happen. Even Sinema only won by 2. Gallego would probably lose by the same margin.

Ruben Gallego is too liberal

We have to offer moderate Republicans and indepenents a palatable alternative.

Grant Woods is a good candidate.

No way. I will vote Green if a corporatist ex Republican is the nominee. It better be Gallego! This is the democratic party not the republican. Gallego will win and you will be proven wrong

[Calthrina950]

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

Gallego is going to win by like five points.

Wtf no

That won't happen. Even Sinema only won by 2. Gallego would probably lose by the same margin.

Ruben Gallego is too liberal

We have to offer moderate Republicans and indepenents a palatable alternative.

Grant Woods is a good candidate.

Greg Stanton would probably be another. It has to be kept in mind that Sinema drew 12% of Republican voters and won independents by a wide margin. Any Democratic nominee facing McSally in 2020 must be able to have crossover appeal.

[MAINEiac4434]

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

Gallego is going to win by like five points.

Wtf no

That won't happen. Even Sinema only won by 2. Gallego would probably lose by the same margin.

Ruben Gallego is too liberal

Democrats have to offer moderate Republicans and indepenents a palatable alternative.

Grant Woods is a good candidate.

Grant Woods was a Republican until this year. He can screw right off.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

Gallego is going to win by like five points.

Wtf no

That won't happen. Even Sinema only won by 2. Gallego would probably lose by the same margin.

Ruben Gallego is too liberal

Democrats have to offer moderate Republicans and indepenents a palatable alternative.

Grant Woods is a good candidate.

Grant Woods was a Republican until this year. He can screw right off.

Preach.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

Gallego is going to win by like five points.

Wtf no

That won't happen. Even Sinema only won by 2. Gallego would probably lose by the same margin.

Ruben Gallego is too liberal

Democrats have to offer moderate Republicans and indepenents a palatable alternative.

Grant Woods is a good candidate.

Grant Woods was a Republican until this year. He can screw right off.

That's true, but there's no doubt he'd beat McSally quite comfortably in a matchup.

[pppolitics]

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

Gallego is going to win by like five points.

Wtf no

That won't happen. Even Sinema only won by 2. Gallego would probably lose by the same margin.

Ruben Gallego is too liberal

Democrats have to offer moderate Republicans and indepenents a palatable alternative.

Grant Woods is a good candidate.

Grant Woods was a Republican until this year. He can screw right off.

I like winning and I don't like leaving something to chance.

We need someone with the best chance of beating McSally.

I am all for running liberals in safe seats, but this isn't one of them.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

Gallego is going to win by like five points.

Wtf no

That won't happen. Even Sinema only won by 2. Gallego would probably lose by the same margin.

Ruben Gallego is too liberal

Democrats have to offer moderate Republicans and indepenents a palatable alternative.

Grant Woods is a good candidate.

Grant Woods was a Republican until this year. He can screw right off.

I like winning and I don't like leaving something to chance.

We need someone with the best chance of beating McSally.

I am all for running liberals in safe seats, but this isn't one of them.

Republican lite is not acceptable. Period. If woods wants to be senator let him run in the GOP primary

[pppolitics]

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

Gallego is going to win by like five points.

Wtf no

That won't happen. Even Sinema only won by 2. Gallego would probably lose by the same margin.

Ruben Gallego is too liberal

Democrats have to offer moderate Republicans and indepenents a palatable alternative.

Grant Woods is a good candidate.

Grant Woods was a Republican until this year. He can screw right off.

I like winning and I don't like leaving something to chance.

We need someone with the best chance of beating McSally.

I am all for running liberals in safe seats, but this isn't one of them.

Republican lite is not acceptable. Period. If woods wants to be senator let him run in the GOP primary

...so you rather have McSally?

She sure isn't a Republican-lite

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

Gallego is going to win by like five points.

Wtf no

That won't happen. Even Sinema only won by 2. Gallego would probably lose by the same margin.

Ruben Gallego is too liberal

Democrats have to offer moderate Republicans and indepenents a palatable alternative.

Grant Woods is a good candidate.

Grant Woods was a Republican until this year. He can screw right off.

I like winning and I don't like leaving something to chance.

We need someone with the best chance of beating McSally.

I am all for running liberals in safe seats, but this isn't one of them.

Republican lite is not acceptable. Period. If woods wants to be senator let him run in the GOP primary

...so you rather have McSally?

She sure isn't a Republican-lite

Gallego....Is..Electable
Period
I'll leave it at that

[pppolitics]

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

Gallego is going to win by like five points.

Wtf no

That won't happen. Even Sinema only won by 2. Gallego would probably lose by the same margin.

Ruben Gallego is too liberal

Democrats have to offer moderate Republicans and indepenents a palatable alternative.

Grant Woods is a good candidate.

Grant Woods was a Republican until this year. He can screw right off.

I like winning and I don't like leaving something to chance.

We need someone with the best chance of beating McSally.

I am all for running liberals in safe seats, but this isn't one of them.

Republican lite is not acceptable. Period. If woods wants to be senator let him run in the GOP primary

...so you rather have McSally?

She sure isn't a Republican-lite

Gallego....Is..Electable
Period
I'll leave it at that

...not in 2020 statewide, and that's what matters

[ON Progressive]

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

Gallego is going to win by like five points.

Wtf no

That won't happen. Even Sinema only won by 2. Gallego would probably lose by the same margin.

Ruben Gallego is too liberal

Democrats have to offer moderate Republicans and indepenents a palatable alternative.

Grant Woods is a good candidate.

Grant Woods was a Republican until this year. He can screw right off.

I like winning and I don't like leaving something to chance.

We need someone with the best chance of beating McSally.

I am all for running liberals in safe seats, but this isn't one of them.

Republican lite is not acceptable. Period. If woods wants to be senator let him run in the GOP primary

...so you rather have McSally?

She sure isn't a Republican-lite

Gallego....Is..Electable
Period
I'll leave it at that

...not in 2020 statewide, and that's what matters

Yes, he is.

Nobody that would ever vote for any Democrat will vote against him just because he is "too liberal" because the average voter is not ideological at all (note the table I posted earlier in this thread).

[pppolitics]

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

Gallego is going to win by like five points.

Wtf no

That won't happen. Even Sinema only won by 2. Gallego would probably lose by the same margin.

Ruben Gallego is too liberal

Democrats have to offer moderate Republicans and indepenents a palatable alternative.

Grant Woods is a good candidate.

Grant Woods was a Republican until this year. He can screw right off.

I like winning and I don't like leaving something to chance.

We need someone with the best chance of beating McSally.

I am all for running liberals in safe seats, but this isn't one of them.

Republican lite is not acceptable. Period. If woods wants to be senator let him run in the GOP primary

...so you rather have McSally?

She sure isn't a Republican-lite

Gallego....Is..Electable
Period
I'll leave it at that

...not in 2020 statewide, and that's what matters

Yes, he is.

Nobody that would ever vote for any Democrat will vote against him just because he is "too liberal" because the average voter is not ideological at all (note the table I posted earlier in this thread).

Is that why West Virginia keep electing liberal Democrats?

[Starry Eyed Jagaloon]

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

Gallego is going to win by like five points.

Wtf no

That won't happen. Even Sinema only won by 2. Gallego would probably lose by the same margin.

Ruben Gallego is too liberal

Democrats have to offer moderate Republicans and indepenents a palatable alternative.

Grant Woods is a good candidate.

Grant Woods was a Republican until this year. He can screw right off.

I like winning and I don't like leaving something to chance.

We need someone with the best chance of beating McSally.

I am all for running liberals in safe seats, but this isn't one of them.

Republican lite is not acceptable. Period. If woods wants to be senator let him run in the GOP primary

...so you rather have McSally?

She sure isn't a Republican-lite

Gallego....Is..Electable
Period
I'll leave it at that

Tell that to Andrew Gillum (Gwen would have won)

[Vern]

I don't get the big deal.. McSally only lost by 2% in a very democratic year. This isn't a slap in the face to the voters, because she isn't taking the seat that she lost. Its a different one...

[pppolitics]

I don't get the big deal.. McSally only lost by 2% in a very democratic year. This isn't a slap in the face to the voters, because she isn't taking the seat that she lost. Its a different one...

She lost by 2.4% with the Green candidate taking another 2.4%.

She is also the first Republican to lost an Arizona senate seat in 30 years.

__________________________________________________________

That said, I am happy that McSally is appointed.

She a known quantity with known weaknesses and she's beatable.

[Horus]

Ew

[Zaybay]

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

Gallego is going to win by like five points.

Wtf no

That won't happen. Even Sinema only won by 2. Gallego would probably lose by the same margin.

Ruben Gallego is too liberal

Democrats have to offer moderate Republicans and indepenents a palatable alternative.

Grant Woods is a good candidate.

Grant Woods was a Republican until this year. He can screw right off.

I like winning and I don't like leaving something to chance.

We need someone with the best chance of beating McSally.

I am all for running liberals in safe seats, but this isn't one of them.

Republican lite is not acceptable. Period. If woods wants to be senator let him run in the GOP primary

...so you rather have McSally?

She sure isn't a Republican-lite

Gallego....Is..Electable
Period
I'll leave it at that

Tell that to Andrew Gillum (Gwen would have won)

lol, I dont see how, but keep dreaming.

[Antonio the Sixth]

lmao

[ON Progressive]

Hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahaha

Gallego is going to win by like five points.

Wtf no

That won't happen. Even Sinema only won by 2. Gallego would probably lose by the same margin.

Ruben Gallego is too liberal

Democrats have to offer moderate Republicans and indepenents a palatable alternative.

Grant Woods is a good candidate.

Grant Woods was a Republican until this year. He can screw right off.

I like winning and I don't like leaving something to chance.

We need someone with the best chance of beating McSally.

I am all for running liberals in safe seats, but this isn't one of them.

Republican lite is not acceptable. Period. If woods wants to be senator let him run in the GOP primary

...so you rather have McSally?

She sure isn't a Republican-lite

Gallego....Is..Electable
Period
I'll leave it at that

...not in 2020 statewide, and that's what matters

Yes, he is.

Nobody that would ever vote for any Democrat will vote against him just because he is "too liberal" because the average voter is not ideological at all (note the table I posted earlier in this thread).

Is that why West Virginia keep electing liberal Democrats?

Considering West Virginia is a Trump +42 state, I wouldn't expect it to elect any Democrats. Also, Manchin was only able to survive by a plurality because he was an entrenched incumbent going up against a super unpopular opponent (38% favorability!).

If voters are so ideological, how come so many Mitt Romney voters went for liberal Democratic House candidates like Katie Porter? How come Jon Tester has won re-election three times in a state that's very red at the Presidential level despite having a fairly liberal voting record?

Also, are you just going to ignore this?:

[brucejoel99]

I actually hope ducey appoints mcsally. The attack ads write themselves for a situation like this. We look forward to defeating her again.

This, but it's so unfair she'd be the senior Senator.

Now that you bring this up I can only imagine how this only adds to the already very bad optics, an illegitimate senator becoming the senior senator.

looking forward to this, please ducey.

To be fair, it doesn't matter who the appointee to replace Kyl is (whether it's McSally or not), they won't be the senior Senator, regardless of whether his resignation is December 31st or January 3rd.

The Senate won't be in session between Kyl's resignation on Dec. 31st & the convening of the 116th Congress on Jan. 3rd, so they'll end up being sworn in on the same day. Seniority is determined by the day one is sworn in, not necessarily the date of an appointment. W/ Sinema having served 6 years in the House & McSally having served 4 years in the House, Sinema will have the first tiebreaker, so she'll still be the senior Senator.

No, that's false. Seniority is based on date of appointment. However, McSally would be sworn in on January 3rd just like everybody else.

That means that McSally would have seniority over 10 senators even though she LOST her race.

No, she'd have to face the seniority tiebreaker on the day she's sworn in like everybody else. The prime recent example is Tina Smith, who was appointed to the Senate to fill Franken's vacancy on December 12, 2017, yet her date of seniority is the day she was sworn in, January 3, 2018. Doug Jones was also sworn in alongside her, & Smith won the seniority tiebreaker b/c Minnesota's population is greater than that of Alabama's.

Not trying to dispute but doesn't this tweet mean that if McSally was sworn-in first, she would become the senior senator?

https://mobile.twitter.com/WaPoSean/status/1075083033529729024

Thankfully, Sinema will be senior senator.

Her seniority benefiting from being sworn in first would only apply if she was sworn in after Kyl resigned on Dec. 31st but before the new Senators are sworn in on Jan. 3rd. However, the Senate won't be in session between Kyl's resignation & the new Senators' swearing-in so she would've been sworn in on the same day as Sinema &, thus, been 2nd in seniority even if Ducey hadn't clarified it.

[Young Conservative]

Sinema, who ran as an Blue Dog moderate and listed Joe Manchin as her political hero, won by 2.4 in a democratic +8.5 year. People think Gallego, a radical progressive without as much charisma, can win in a Presidential year that has 0 chance of being as liberal as 2018 nationally??? (even if a Dem wins the presidency, its unlikely that translates down ballet to a nine point national popular vote in congress). Peak Atlas. Lean McSally.