Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[Astatine]

Georgia's government has shown its true colors. After pretending to continue the Western path (although the ruling party's eminence grise is a billionaire who does a lot of business in Russia) which is crucial to win public support (~80 % support accession to NATO and EU), the government has announced it will not join sanctions against Russia, blamed the opposition for the 2008 War (they really have no other empty talking point) and provide liquidity to Georgia's branch of the VTB Bank that was hit by Russian sanctions.
The only Georgian representative who sided with Ukraine is the President, an office that was stripped of all its powers and that will be be elected by a council selected by government party cronies instead of popular vote from 2024 on.

Hundreds, if not thousands, of people demonstrated to support Russia yesterday, and this action will hopefully absolutely backfire against this goddamn insane Georgian Dream (more like Nightmare) gov't.

https://twitter.com/EuronewsGeorgia/status/1497258637613363204?t=A5_WniOzU37Be8X...

It's happening.

[Omega21]

https://twitter.com/coe/status/1497240124836519939

I'm sure Armenia and Serbia voted no, but who were the others?

Vucic is going the Tito "neutrality" route, so they might have just abstained.


Message from Zelensky:

https://twitter.com/godwinbieber7/status/1497258564468948992

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://twitter.com/RepCori/status/1497023503043899399

Doesn't she support BDS ?

“But it’s different because the Grey Zone told me everyone is rich there” - some dead-end tankies.

[MaxQue]

This is big:

https://twitter.com/alexrossmusic/status/1497242538415046657

And American, too, the Carnegie Hall replaced him yesterday for a concert this weekend,

[TheDeadFlagBlues]

https://twitter.com/RepCori/status/1497023503043899399

Most posters on the forum would be shocked to discover that Cori Bush is reflecting "normie" Black Democrat opinions here, which by and large will be "what is Russia doing to me? Biden should focus on getting gas prices down". Cori Bush is framing her opposition to sanctions in social justice but she is, more or less, reflecting the wishes of her constituents here.

I must add that there is something unsettling about comfortable Americans LARPing and pretending to be military strategists while cheering for their team. When you wish for Russia and Russians to be punished, you are wishing for thousands of people to be sent to their graves. When you support sanctions, you are supporting millions of Russian children being pushed into poverty. Whether or not these policies are justified is less important to me than the cavalier and disgraceful tone of the community right now: this isn't a game guys.

Edit: I am guilty of behaving like an armchair military strategist myself. I have become a heartless cynic without much humanity or soul, which makes me view these events solely in terms of making forecasts. I would far prefer it if I simply felt horrible about all of the lives that will be lost, all of the hard work destroyed by Russian bombs etc. I would like to feel emotionally affected by this to simply log-off. This would be a human reaction.

[OSR stands with Israel]

God Bless Zelensky

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

Stepping up:

https://twitter.com/oscarrickettnow/status/1497235841692971009

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/AvivaKlompas/status/1496915617542250496

[Person Man]

https://twitter.com/AvivaKlompas/status/1496915617542250496

A King's King.

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

https://twitter.com/RepCori/status/1497023503043899399

I mean, what she appears to be saying is that she wants to see aggressive targeted sanctions against Russian officials and oligarchs rather than broad sanctions against the Russian economy. Given Putin’s insulation from public opinion, targeting very harshly and specifically Kremlin insiders and Russian elites is far more likely to undermine Putin’s political standing that measures targeted at the Russian population at large. I think we ought to be doing broad based economic sanctions as well because policy or regime change is a long shot and we need to erode Russia’s capacity to make war and sustain an occupation. But, her mistake here seems to be thinking we can wage war without getting any innocents hurt. That makes her a pollyana, not a Putin proxy ala Tucker Carlson or the most recent Republican President.
There are enough people spewing Russian propaganda that we don’t need to turn a random over idealistic congressman into a hate object.

[WMS]

https://twitter.com/jen_caszatt/status/1497229327565561873?s=21

[GALeftist]

What is with this idealism from everyone here that a military agreement with the Russian Federation not related to nuclear arms control is worth the paper it's signed on? How delusional do you have to be to think they'd honor any sort of ceasefire/treaty?

Then war continues.

Russians are going to go until either Zelensky surrenders or they have removed Zelensky from power forcefully.

Yeah my point is that'll happen regardless of whatever talks occur. The die's been cast. We're at the point where anything less than capturing the Maidan is a failure for the Kremlin.

The Russians are showing some restraint here. It's been commented on by military types they're not using their artillery much at all when Russian military strategy historically has relied on artillery a good amount, and there's still plenty of soldiers on the borders that have not invaded yet. So they're not trying to kill everyone a la say Grozny, but if told "f#ck you, we're going to die to the last man", the artillery is being held in reserve and could come in. That could be the threat to force Ukraine to the table.

We'll see what happens at Minsk. Russian ground forces are in Kiev and we have a day and a half until the American military intelligence prediction of when it would fall.

Right but if Ukraine comes to the table and signs an armistice I don't see what/who is stopping the Russians from simply waiting a bit and trying again to take the whole country.

The Russians were always able to launch a similar operation against Ukraine.
What matters is does Moscow think it will gain from such an operation.
Putin won't invade just because he can. He invades if he thinks the situation demands it (which is not at all an easy threshold to reach).
From his public statements he clearly doesn't think this war is anything but defensive for the country he leads anyway. A good place to dig in and fight, with odds that are most in his favor.

I must say that you have an astounding amount of faith not only in Mr. Putin's mental health but also in the fact that his priorities make sense to us. Isn't it plausible that hegemony in Ukraine is not merely a means to an end but is itself the end? That makes the most sense to me.

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/Eurovision/status/1497243799889711104

So that’s the Champions League, Formula One and now Eurovision. In addition to the Council of Europe, on the more substantive side of things.

Doubt this will dissuade Putin, but hopefully some Russians will take the intended lesson about their country being pushed into pariah state status.

WE JUST HELD THE OLYMPICS IN A COUNTRY THAT DISAPPEARED A STAR TENNIS PLAYER FOR ALLEGING SHE WAS RAPED AND HAS CONCENTRATION CAMPS FOR MUSLIMS IN ITS FAR WEST PROVINCE, AND EVERYONE WENT.

I can add everything about Saudi Arabia if anyone wishes. War going on in a country, "oh yeah, we're going to ban you from a song contest, take that!", f#ck. I already think very little of Europeans when it comes to foreign policy affairs. The French and Germans - two most powerful states in continental Europe - effectively came out yesterday and admitted their militaries are useless in an intense conflict. Think about what that says about NATO capacity ex-U.S., and people wonder why states are taking advantage of the power vacuum.

Excluding Russia from the ESC is not a decision that was made by the French, German or any other government, and as such it is also not intended as some form of substitute for stronger economic, political, or military measures as you seem to think.

This decision was made by a nominally apolitical body that also happens to include broadcasters from Israel, Tunisia, Morocco, Algeria, Libya, Egypt, Jordan, and Lebanon as full members, and is therefore unrelated to any political decisions EU governments may or may not take with regards to Ukraine.

Does this decision have the same magnitude or effect than expelling Russia from Swift or providing the Ukraininian military with weapons? No, but then again nobody actually made such a claim (Torrain did in fact state the opposite).

Is excluding Russia from the ESC the correct decision to make? In my opinion it is.

Is it news that relates to the ongoing war agaínst Ukraine? Yes, it is.

Is this thread there we discuss and report events related to the ongoing against Ukraine? Yes, it is.

[Gass3268]

NATO to provide more arms for Ukraine

https://twitter.com/ELINTNews/status/1497267333890514944?s=20&t=i-9nZ6EPbO2m...

[jaichind]

Russian Defense Ministry claims have seized a large quantity of weapons recently supplied by Western countries including American Javelin anti-tank missile systems and British NLAWs.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1497266678601859081

[WMS]

https://twitter.com/euromaidanpress/status/1497178080951025669?s=21

“But the US is exactly like the Russians blah blah blah both sides blah blah blah Great Power system blah blah blah how is my currency speculation going?”

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

What is with this idealism from everyone here that a military agreement with the Russian Federation not related to nuclear arms control is worth the paper it's signed on? How delusional do you have to be to think they'd honor any sort of ceasefire/treaty?

Then war continues.

Russians are going to go until either Zelensky surrenders or they have removed Zelensky from power forcefully.

Yeah my point is that'll happen regardless of whatever talks occur. The die's been cast. We're at the point where anything less than capturing the Maidan is a failure for the Kremlin.

The Russians are showing some restraint here. It's been commented on by military types they're not using their artillery much at all when Russian military strategy historically has relied on artillery a good amount, and there's still plenty of soldiers on the borders that have not invaded yet. So they're not trying to kill everyone a la say Grozny, but if told "f#ck you, we're going to die to the last man", the artillery is being held in reserve and could come in. That could be the threat to force Ukraine to the table.

We'll see what happens at Minsk. Russian ground forces are in Kiev and we have a day and a half until the American military intelligence prediction of when it would fall.

Right but if Ukraine comes to the table and signs an armistice I don't see what/who is stopping the Russians from simply waiting a bit and trying again to take the whole country.

The Russians were always able to launch a similar operation against Ukraine.
What matters is does Moscow think it will gain from such an operation.
Putin won't invade just because he can. He invades if he thinks the situation demands it (which is not at all an easy threshold to reach).
From his public statements he clearly doesn't think this war is anything but defensive for the country he leads anyway. A good place to dig in and fight, with odds that are most in his favor.

I must say that you have an astounding amount of faith not only in Mr. Putin's mental health but also in the fact that his priorities make sense to us. Isn't it plausible that hegemony in Ukraine is not merely a means to an end but is itself the end? That makes the most sense to me.

Long-term hegemony over Ukraine is an end to itself, yes, but you don't get long-term hegemony over Ukraine by means of a short-term military operation. You have to win both the war AND the peace. Putin probably isn't sure at this point what he wants to aim for; I guess he's going for "wait and see".

Putin's always been a very strategic thinker and he's had a lot of time to think by himself. I'm firmly convinced that he's in command of his facilities and thinks this is the best time and place to take a stand against NATO and the pull of the West moving farther and farther west. Biden's pulled out of Afghanistan, the West is more anti-China than in any other time in recent memory, and various American administrations have together contributed to a lack of consistent foreign policy in most aspects.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/ragipsoylu/status/1497266678601859081

Very good move from NATO. Ukraine needs good air defenses if it wants to counteract Russian shelling tactics in case things go south.

[Ferguson97]

https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1497267568461205509

Is Germany the only holdout now?

[Splash]

https://twitter.com/GlasnostGone/status/1497273163146801158

[Buffalo Mayor Young Kim]

What is with this idealism from everyone here that a military agreement with the Russian Federation not related to nuclear arms control is worth the paper it's signed on? How delusional do you have to be to think they'd honor any sort of ceasefire/treaty?

Then war continues.

Russians are going to go until either Zelensky surrenders or they have removed Zelensky from power forcefully.

Yeah my point is that'll happen regardless of whatever talks occur. The die's been cast. We're at the point where anything less than capturing the Maidan is a failure for the Kremlin.

The Russians are showing some restraint here. It's been commented on by military types they're not using their artillery much at all when Russian military strategy historically has relied on artillery a good amount, and there's still plenty of soldiers on the borders that have not invaded yet. So they're not trying to kill everyone a la say Grozny, but if told "f#ck you, we're going to die to the last man", the artillery is being held in reserve and could come in. That could be the threat to force Ukraine to the table.

We'll see what happens at Minsk. Russian ground forces are in Kiev and we have a day and a half until the American military intelligence prediction of when it would fall.

Right but if Ukraine comes to the table and signs an armistice I don't see what/who is stopping the Russians from simply waiting a bit and trying again to take the whole country.

The Russians were always able to launch a similar operation against Ukraine.
What matters is does Moscow think it will gain from such an operation.
Putin won't invade just because he can. He invades if he thinks the situation demands it (which is not at all an easy threshold to reach).
From his public statements he clearly doesn't think this war is anything but defensive for the country he leads anyway. A good place to dig in and fight, with odds that are most in his favor.

What statements are you talking about? Russian official statements have been all over the place, but ‘Ukraine can not exist apart from Russia’ and writing articles about Russians as an inseparable triune people (that is Belorussians and Ukrainians are just Russian by another name) don’t seem to be consistent with being forced into a war of defense. For that matter, planing false flag attacks, making up stories about mass graves and genocide, and trying to plant articles about Ukrainians imaginary nuclear program are not things you do if you serious believe to be undertaking a defensive war.

Aside from which, he set out clear war aims the day he invaded. ‘Denazify Ukraine and liberate the oppressed Russian communities’. That is to say, he’s going to annex as much of Ukraine as he thinks he can hold outright, kill any Ukrainian official he gets his hands on, and install a puppet dictator ala his man in Minsk to force Russify the rump Ukraine, erode public institutions, hand over internal powers to Russian dominated international institutions, disappear pro-Western and nationalist dissidents, and cultivate a Russophile elite until he find the Ukrainians subservient enough to join the Russian Federation proper. That’s the end game here.

Why now, well large scale modern military ops have long lead times and between the Obama ‘pivot to Asia’ and Trump actively destroying NATO internally, he probably thought he had time to let Western capacities in Europe atrophy while swallowing Ukraine bit by bit.

[StateBoiler]

Is excluding Russia from the ESC the correct decision to make? In my opinion it is.

Is it news that relates to the ongoing war agaínst Ukraine? Yes, it is.

Is this thread there we discuss and report events related to the ongoing against Ukraine? Yes, it is.

None of that changes the fact it's all pointless meaningless bullsh**t as it relates to the conduct and outcome of the conflict in Ukraine.

People in the West have gotten so addicted to virtue signalling bullsh*t they think that actually accomplishes something. You want to help Ukraine? You know what to do and where to go. Everything else besides that point does not matter.

[Alben Barkley]

https://twitter.com/GlasnostGone/status/1497273163146801158

Based Boris.

Maybe a little Churchill in him after all...

[KaiserDave]

https://twitter.com/DmytroKuleba/status/1497267568461205509

Is Germany the only holdout now?

Lindner said Germany is open to it today